Post-Dispatch poll results
Monday, Jan 23, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Blagojevich, Topinka, Ryan trial here.
Bush, Cheney, Obama, national issues here.
I don’t think the poll is nearly as bad for the governor as this story makes it out to be, but that’s just me.
While you’re at it, you might want to take a look at this Tribune story, which makes some fairly decent points (but not about the poll).
Ron Gidwitz’s campaign had this to say (via press release):
The campaign mantra of Judy Baar Topinka ran headlong into reality this weekend.
For months, Topinka and her allies among Springfield’s political class have been touting her as the candidate that can beat Rod Blagojevich.
This weekend, the St. Louis Post Dispatch in conjunction with KMOV-TV in St. Louis released an independent poll that showed Topinka trailing Blagojevich by a 45-37 margin, were the election to be held today.
For years, Blagojevich has been rightfully taken to task by media outlets statewide over allegations of rampant corruption within his administration, reckless borrowing schemes that have mortgaged the future of Illinois families, and the absence of meaningful education reform to ensure every child has the opportunity to earn a quality education in Illinois.
Against that backdrop, Topinka has gotten a free pass and has been anointed the frontrunner because of her statewide name identification.
For months Topinka’s handlers and supporters have hyped her as the GOP’s best hope as they liberally tout her competitive name identification numbers with the Governor. But now eight weeks before the primary, the poll numbers are starting to bear out what many Republicans have observed since she began contemplating her candidacy - that, in fact, she may be the one Republican who cannot beat Blagojevich.
Frankly, I’d like to see Gidwitz release his own internal head-to-heads with Blagojevich before making such a bold statement, but what do you think of all this?
- Beowulf - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 4:16 am:
The phrase “All form and no substance” comes to mind when reflecting on Judy Barr Topinka as the candidate that the Illinois GOP Party Chairman has decided to throw GOP support behind. If Andy McKenna and Kjellander had been able to get Michael Jordan to run for governor, Michael would have been their choice. McKenna is ill-advised that “name recognition” and “star power” is what will carry the Illinois GOP to victory in November.
Ron Gidwitz, Bill Brady, or Jim Oberweiss (in that order)would have been better selections. Gidwitz comes across as the more moderate of the three candidates and that is what Illinois voters are looking for. The vote tally that Allan Keyes previously rang up showed that fact. Until the Illinois GOP learns that winning the war is far more important than winning individual battles, the state of Illinois will remain a Democrat state.
If Gidwitz is able to hold his own in the upcoming debates and show that he is knowledgeable on the issues, he may have a decent shot at sinking Judy Barr Topinka on March 21st. Steve Rauschenberger will be the key to making sure that Gidwitz is ready for these debates.
- Truthful James - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:14 am:
Celebrity Dancing — Andy McKenna and Bob Kjellander dance cheek to cheek for Judy B. Now that is an unwholesome thought.
- Anon - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:22 am:
It’s pretty amazing that the SPD story doesn’t even mention his 8 point lead in the head-to-head against Topinka.
- Cassandra - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:35 am:
Sigh. What is Gidwitz’ polling? 1 or 2 percent against anybody? Save us from bored old rich guys (Gidwitz, Oberweis) and not so old rich guys
(Eisendrath) who are trying to rekindle their lives with a little excitement. They’re wasting our time.
Having said this, JBT’s campaign has been a little sluggish. Maybe she is trying to keep a low profile in the primaries to avoid annoying the right wing. One hopes she peps up during the runup to the general. Taxpayers all over the state will need to be seeing her every day and night for her to have a chance at winning. A few indictments wouldn’t hurt either…DCFS, IDOT, the guv’s office…
- 6 Degrees of Separation - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:48 am:
The governor’s race has an air of inevitability about it lately. People aren’t that impressed with the present occupant, but they don’t see any credible evidence things would be measurably better with any of the current crop. A low turnout in the primary, and a surprisingly low turnout in the general if the expected “conventional wisdom” candidates are there.
- bored now - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 8:12 am:
completely off topic, but interesting nonetheless: a different kind of “poll” or survey from the hotline blog:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/01/the_futures_mar_11.html
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 9:55 am:
Surprisingly good for Blagojevich. He is running about 5% higher than I would expect at this point.
His negatives are about what I expected, and his Good/Fair percentage is higher than I thought in his favor. Note the low percentage that sees this governor as excellent. I think that is telling. I frankly don’t believe the breakdown of support it shows for him outside Chicago, and his team should question it too.
For JBT, the positive is that her negatives are not as high as Blagojevich’s, and there is a substantial percentage that have no opinion on her. So she can have a nice bump if she can convert them.
This election is about Blagojevich, and there are tons of mud he’s made and its coming his way.
Gidwitz’s media monkeys are just doing their job. It should make him happy that someone on his staff knows what they are supposed to do. Interpreting this as an opening for him is an overstatement.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 10:05 am:
Topinka’s in free fall.
Illinois won’t elect another George Ryan for Gov. She’s toast.
- scoot - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 10:33 am:
Every poll has some truth to it’s numbers. Look at those surveyed and it matches up with the numbers. The majority polled were dems/cook county/ but Blago has a higher disapproval rate then Topinka. This is just one of many many polls we will see until November.
- Bubs - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 10:37 am:
1. The November numbers are sketchy enough at this point that they will bounce around quite a bit, depending on polling techniques.
2. Topinka had better come up with something more substantive than “I can beat Rod.”
3. Topinka had better think hard on her campaign staff, and geting out of the sluggish doldrums she is in, mainly from not delegating control.
4. If Oberweis and his FTN crowd keep up the negative campaign against JBT (and now Ron Gidwitz, to his shame, has joined in, no doubt in an act of desperation), the time will eventually come when she will need to respond in kind, and I sure wouldn’t want to be the Milkman or a Jack Roeser crony when that day arrives.
- Newshound - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 10:50 am:
Andy Martin is running radio ads on WGN 720 saying he will “bring our heroes home” from Iraq if elected.
Man oh man…
- In the Land of Silos and Cows - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 11:05 am:
This is typical of the guys running the Gidwitz/Rauchenberger campaign… full of negatives about every candidate, (or the likely nominee), but never being able to produce something positive about their candidate that has any traction. Remember the “Topinkavich” comment on her announcement day? They can put a ribbon on a pig, and put perfume on a pig, but at the end of the day, it’s still a pig … and in this case, a ribbon on Gidwitz’s bad campaign, still makes it a bad campaign.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 11:15 am:
I call B.S. on this poll. I have not met one person (admittingly) that will vote for Blago downstate.
- Michael - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 12:43 pm:
Why do pollsters offer silly options like “Lowering gas prices” as a possibility? Other than another moratorium on the state tax, which would have a minor effect on prices at the pump, what is Springfield going to do about that?
And Anonymous 11:15, the plural of anecdote is not data.
- Limerick - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 1:31 pm:
Ron now takes a negative bent,
After millions were uselessly spent.
But hurling the mud
Makes him look like a pud
When his support stands at just four percent.
- Anon - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 2:38 pm:
The poll numbers reflect this: bad as Rod may be in the eyes of the pundits, the Republican Party of Ryan, Bush & Company fares worse in the eyes of Illinois voters. Illinois Republicans are still in a true “blue” state.
Trackback ArchPundit - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 3:38 pm:
47% Approval
Research 2000 polled Illinois voters for the Post-Dispatch and other Lee papers like the Pantagraph with the Governor doing better than he has with the Survey USA polls and with a slightly less Democratic weighted sample. Rich doesn’t think it’s…
- Reagan Democrat - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 4:16 pm:
The last two weeks were a precurser for these poll numbers. Judys numbers are dropping on the GOP side fast. She still can’t beat Oberweis in the township endorsement sessions.
Judy has only won 2 Cook townships so far out of 7, She is behind Oberweis by one and New Trier had to change the rules to get her the nod. JBT is in serious trouble, she was supposed to be this campaign machine taking all of Cook and leaving everyone in the dust. She will end up where Corinne Wood was about 26% thats what liberal Republicans get in the primaries. Remember Jim Ryan and Pat O’Malley got more votes than the sitting Lt Gov. Oberweis wins this going away he will get around 35%. This weekend was not only a disaster for Judy it was also for Brady he did not get one vote in Libertyville, Cuba, New Trier and Wheeling townships. Brady is done!
- Bubs - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 5:29 pm:
RD, I sense a bit if overstatement there. I’m not putting much stock in township meetings of 20-40 people, given that Topinka stomped Oberweis at Skoien’s convention in a 250+ vote, but I agree that she actually has to actually run to win, and its not at all certain that she has her campaign act together yet.
- Reagan Democrat - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 5:43 pm:
Bubs
One is a straw poll with no weight and no oversite. I was asked 4 times if I wanted a ballot @ the cook convention.
Endorsment sessions are with the GOP organization their committeeman and in Cook captians. The session decides if they will carry your material, in Cuba if you don’t get their nod your material does not go out to the voters.
- Jack - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:07 pm:
Reagan Democrat, The committeeman not distributing material must be why they mail it.
- Bubs - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 7:34 pm:
RD, I can’t see Suburban Cook GOP primary voters as sheep. If they are making the effort to go, they will vote on more than whose literature was distributed by a few captains.
As for the convention, if you were there, then you heard the noise. Oberweis brought his own loud cheering section at one or two tables, but Topinka, who didn’t, still received much louder and wider support. Plus, I heard that Topinka absolutely destroyed Oberweis in the poll on day two, when the committeemen and their delegates voted. That vote was no fluke.
It would have been interesting to see how many votes Jim Oberweis got AFTER his crass speech. Not many, I would have wagered. Topinka refused to respond to the attack, and pledged her support to Republican candidates. She needed work on her delivery, but the message was perfect. She looked like a leader, and Oberweis looked like a mean old man. He’s better than that, but he is in the wrong company these days.
- Been There - Monday, Jan 23, 06 @ 10:15 pm:
There obviously must be some accuracy to the polling by the Lee papers, which explains the emphasis and dramatic statements about pharmacists filling morning after pill prescriptions. Must also be polling well internally at Camp Blagojevich. Must say, that I was struck by the choice of words (bills will be “dead on arrival”) in discussing an abortion issue.
- the wonderboy - Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:39 am:
Reagan Democrat–For starters, I cannot believe that someone going by the name “Reagan Democrat” would be such an obvious worker for the Oberweis campaign. You have actually looked into The Milkman’s positions, right?
As for the numbers which you predict…35% would hardly be running away with anything…and The Milkman will be lucky to break 30% anyway. Besides, why should anyone be afraid of The Milkman getting these endorsements? Let’s look back at his previous efforts to buy a political position and realize that he has gotten endorsements in the past only to get smoked on election day. Besides, I would hope that The Milkman could get a few endorsements in his backyard.
I can’t wait until we get to see the debates…what will Gidwitz, JBT and The Milkman say when they are actually forced to respond to issue and policy questions? A sampling:
-Gidwitz: “I have Rauschenberger as my running mate and that should double my votes to 3%”
-JBT: “I can beat Rod. And, by the way, I can beat Rod. And in response to your budget question, I can beat Rod. As a side note, I can beat Rod.”
-The Milkman: “When I was a kid we had to walk two miles to school, uphill both ways! And we liked it! And I hate JBT! She’s a terrible person who chose Alan Keyes over me, and that makes me mad! I promise I will support the 2nd Amendment, at least until tomorrow! And I hate immigrants, too! I’m just so mad!”
Questions on policy and issues will expose the candidates for what they truly are…and Brady will again show that he is the only candidate with a real plan to fix the problems of this state.
- Papa Legba - Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 3:00 pm:
I still maintain that once the mud starts to fly fast and furious, Blago’s numbers will go back down. So far there has not been any real attacks on GRod. When people start to get blasted with all of his administrations crapola, it should really scramble the political landscape.
- the wonderboy - Tuesday, Jan 24, 06 @ 5:42 pm:
Does anyone else find it fitting that Reagan Democrat supports The Milkman and follows his exact smae course of action? Make a comment and then go into hiding when the challenging response is presented…
- Johnny Run - Tuesday, Jan 31, 06 @ 6:31 pm:
If Gov B wins re-election by supporting illegals housing backed by our tax dollars, I think the Gov’s Mansion ought to be the first place they sell…plenty of rooms - should hold hundreds. I’ll vote JUDY B-T.