31 Comments - Heh - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 6:39 am: “You do not tell your enemy when you’re going to ambush a bridge because guess what, he’s not going to show up there,” said Duckworth He will if he wants to defend the bridge. What war college did she graduate from? - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 7:20 am: duckworth didn’t graduate from a war college. major duckworth has repeatedly shown herself to be *incredibly* naive about electoral politics (she’s a scholar, not a politician). apparently she completely misses the point: it’s not just that she lives outside the 6th congressional district, it’s that she lives outside the congressional district AND was parachuted in by the chicago political machine! in her naivete, she reinforces the fact that outsiders are trying to impose their choice upon the 6th by regaling how the rest of the (democratic) congressional delegation — most of whom hail from chicago — thinks that she’s the best choice for the people of the 6th to swallow! peter rosham will slaughter her! it’s not just that he has a broader base of support, but also that he’s been out there, knocking on doors, building up an organization and voter loyalty. i’d be impressed if duckworth could equal cegelis’ 2004 mark! i’ve been reporting on my canvassing for cegelis here, and i’ve said repeatedly that i had not yet found a voter who knew of duckworth. now i must report that i have indeed found a voter who knew of her — but he was a republican who had a few choice names to call her. HE KNEW that she lives outside the district, and that rahm sent her! republicans are not only ready for duckworth, they are *energized* by her presence — she represents everything they’d like to escape from chicago! (as my republican voter was talking, all i could think of was the b movie, escape from new york.) cegelis can always raise money. it’s a big, huge question mark if duckworth can excite the democratic (activist) base and turn campaign workers out on the streets. democrats cannot win this seat without doing both. christine cegelis is clearly the better risk! - Bill Baar - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 7:35 am: Heh said, What war college did she graduate from? Duckworth wears her diploma from the college of war. You’re blind if you can’t see it. - US Army Vet - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 7:41 am: What war college did she graduate from? The answer, painfully obvious, is none. Duckworth was a Captain when she was shot down, and promoted to Major in the hospital. The US Army War College is only open to Lieutenant Colonels and higher. The Army Command & General Staff College is open only to Majors and higher. More than likely her highest professional military school would be the Aviation Officer Advanced Course at Fort Rucker, Alabama. Agree that even her military tactics comment was “*incredibly* naive”. You do not ambush a fixed target, you attack it. This type of basic tactic is taught to entry level military personel, including schools she has attended. - Anon - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 8:05 am: Duckworth was hand in hand with Rev. Jesse James Jackson and Congressman massive ego Jesse Jr. hand in hand at an MLK event, Roskam has the tape already. Do you think the Jackson clan is a sell in Wheaton and Downers Grover? or anywhere else in the District? I am sure Roskam will put Duckworth and Jackson together all over the District. It is all about the money as the Jacksons say. - O6 - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 8:34 am: Tammy is a fighter of the highest order and will not be detoured by phoney political issues such as out-of-district residence. Everyone knows the district boundaries are arbitrary, and in an urban area the real issues don’t change because of phoney boundary lines eight blocks away. And, the voters will certainly understand she’s living in a specially equipped home built by very good friends to accommodate her war injuries. Her opponents would do well to listen to what she says on real issues of the day and not focus on the nitwit stuff. - No Rooting Interest in this Race - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 8:39 am: I’m afraid that when folks do listen to what she has to say, they’ll remain unimpressed. I would never denigrate her courage, but having listened to her, I’m not all that impressed by her thoughts. Pretty generic, boilerplate stuff. - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 9:05 am: i think it’s so cute that duckworth defenders want to focus on her celebrity and not on the real issues. people moved to the western suburbs to get away from all the machinations of the chicago machine. she brought it with her when she entered the race (she should have stuck with the decision to run in the 10th, not the 6th). again, for the duckworth apologists out there, the issue isn’t JUST that she lives outside the district, but that she lives outside the district AND was imposed upon the 6th by the chicago political machine! we know who SENT HER. all her protestations to the contrary does not alter the fact that rahm dropped her into this district. duckworth is a product of the s. capitol street project. rahm knows better than the people of the 6th — we just have to trust ‘em! we may expose this critical weakness now, before she get’s pilloried in the general… - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 9:07 am: may/may as well - Anon - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 10:57 am: Her residency is a phoney issue 06? Get real. It’s not about where her house is, but her complete lack of ties to the district. She’s only lived close to the district for three years, and owned a home is more accurate. She’s not from the area, or the state, and has few ties at all the district. She’s an outsider and Roskam will beat her with this issue. This is a fatal flaw for her. - 6th Sense - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 11:20 am: ‘Bored now’ concludes Cegelis is a “risk.” Yes she is - a big risk. She already lost to the right wing by a large amount once. Don’t expect any different result vs. another right-winger (Roskam). When a school referendum gets a negative result like Cegelis got last time, the papers say it got resoundingly rejected. With weak fundraising and flat-lining support, seems personal cheap-shots are all Cegelis has to bring. Tammy, you go girl! Congrats for the courage to run for this seat, especially against the cheap negativity. You are the kind of strong, positive, and sensible representative this district needs. I’m not surprised you are winning support and PR. I also like your pledge of support for whomever wins the Dem Primary. (Has Cegelis pledged support for the eventually Primary winner?) A strong Democrat can win in the 6th and people like Barack Obama who know a few things about winning across the spectrum support Tammy. - Heh - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 11:52 am: >A strong Democrat can win in the 6th Right on…now all you have to do is find one. - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 12:06 pm: yes, cegelis is a risk — just as scott or duckworth are! i understand your need to put a positive spin on that fact, but i appreciate that someone has finally trotted out the kerry argument. i was wondering how long that would take. yes, traditional democrats see duckworth as more electable. and some of them are overwhelmed by her celebrity and her cronyism. you are the same kind of democrats who liked to tell everyone that kerry was more electable in 2004, as well! it’s a tautology. you only see the world one way, you don’t understand the advances in technology, social networks and campaigns, and, of course, you think YOU KNOW BETTER! it’s a wonderfully warped world-view. quite elitist, as well (which is also central to the duckworth theme). of course, kerry lost (predictably). and (predictably) so will duckworth. a vote for duckworth is nothing but a vote to elect peter roskam in the fall (not that there’s any difference between the two that i can see). as for your naive comparison to a school referendum, you clearly don’t know your facts. cegelis was in the top ten percent of democrats who raised more than a $100k last time, but lost. anywhere else, that would be seen as deserving of another shot. a more knowledgeable commentator would have realized that phil crane did better against bean in her first run than hyde did against cegelis. why do you think he bailed? but it’s ok, i recognize that you’re a neophyte. and you certainly have the right to your opinion. i’ll stick to facts. you’re naive if you think that pointing out the clear and obvious weaknesses that duckworth brings to this race constitutes taking a cheap shot. obviously, you don’t know enough about campaigning to understand a cheap shot (eg, the chambliss-cleland campaign). pointing out duckworth’s glaring weaknesses, and the inevitability of her electoral failure (whether in march or november), cautions democrats to choose wisely. most of us (although not all) won’t be fooled again. but if you’re looking for a sure-thing, than we can only assume you’ll be voting for roskam! no democrat is even close to a “sure thing.” - 6th Sense - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 1:01 pm: bored now says “Cegelis was in the top ten percent of democrats who raised more than a $100k last time, but lost.” Huh? Now that wins the spin-attempt of the week and it’s only Monday. But doesn’t it just remind us that she lost, even with money? That plus negative campaigning now equals no improvement for her. And remember her results trailed John Kerry, so comments regarding Kerry-type thinking don’t hold water. Dramatically over-reaching statements by Cegelis supporters are losing them credibility very quickly. Also, does anyone less emotional than bored now know if Cegelis promised to support the eventual Dem Primary winner in the 6th? - stick a fork in Cegelis - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 1:14 pm: She’s done. She has almost 10k less cash on hand than in September, still carrying 40k in debt. Lindy Scott outperformed her. Unbelievable. - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 1:33 pm: sorry, 6th, given my experience in the field, i am prone to deep analysis. no worries. it merely points out to the fact that cegelis is the most credible candidate in the democratic field, given her prior experience in 2004. i can say it more simply (in case you missed it the first time): cegelis did better in 04 than bean did in 02. if you have trouble understanding that, i can’t help you. and while i can’t speak for cegelis (who i believe has already spoken to your question), i would think a *much* better question would be: will we ever see duckworth in the 6th after she loses? it might be fun to start a pool on whether duckworth hangs around the 6th for as long as alan keyes stayed in illinois after his loss! i’ll claim 30 days. any other takers? - stick a fork in Cegelis - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 2:20 pm: i can say it more simply (in case you missed it the first time): cegelis did better in 04 than bean did in 02. if you have trouble understanding that, i can’t help you. You might be right if Cegelis were running against Hyde again, but she’s not, so you are wrong. Maybe you should focus your electoral expertise on the 17th house district. - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 2:33 pm: believe it or not, i can chew gum and walk at the same time! of course, *you* know better than to contend that electoral history is only valid when candidates run head to head again! electoral history is a good starting point for a number of things, all of which make for valid comparisons. see you at the hot house or israel panel! i’m off to the city! - Anon - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 2:50 pm: First, Cegelis’ debt is to herself. She owes no vendors or consultants, so she essentially has $40K more on and than the report shows. Second, she raised more last quarter than she did in Q3, and more in 2005 than her last run for office. Lindy did really well, but he’s running a stealth campaign with no office, staff or organization in place. From what I’ve heard, Cegelis had her best month yet in January, so the funds are steady and continuing to to come in regularily. She has plenty of funding to run her campaign, pay her staff, and organize her volunteers - of which there are many. And more join every day. Finally, Cegelis has said publicly at several forums that she will support the winner of the primary who ever that may be. But I wonder, will the establishment Dems support her when she wins the primary? - stick a fork in Cegelis - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 3:29 pm: Sorry anon 2:50, but that’s not going to do it. She needs to be taking in more than she spends, and again, why is she spending so much money at this point? It’s not about how much you raised last quarter, or how she did in 04 at this point, it’s about where shes at right now. The numbers don’t lie, she’s in a bad spot. - Bill Baar - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 3:31 pm: has anyone seen polling on this race? can scott really upset things? - ZC - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 4:39 pm: As has been pointed out by many, constantly portraying Duckworth as a puppet of Rahm at least risks the potential of a backlash down the line. Basically it can be spun as saying a woman doesn’t know her own mind, even an Iraq war veteran, and she will need a big powerful male Chicago boss to tell her what to do. I’d be careful if I were Roskam how far to push this attack. If this district flips, it’s going to be the female vote that flips it. - Anon - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 5:19 pm: The Army War College is at Carlyle Barracks in Pennsylvia and is by invitation only. It is usually offered to those officers (colonels) who are on track for general. As a major, it is not likely she would have gone to the Army War College. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 5:42 pm: Guess what folks — whomever wins the Democratic nomination will be attacked for not sharing the district’s values and for being beholden to Democratic insiders. That makes this just about the dumbest argument ever. The question is, which candidate will best be able to respond to those attacks? Not Christine Cegelis or Lindy Scott, who won’t raise enough money to be heard above the background noise. Fundraising is to political warfare what diesel fuel is to tank warfare. Without it, your done. Complaining about how unfair it is is like wishing for a solar-powered tank. And “Stick A Fork in It” is right, Cegelis is done. - Bill Baar - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 6:36 pm: Nice to agree with you on something YDD… although I wonder about how done Lindsy Scott is.. I want to see how he does with hispanics… if he can get them out to vote. - bored now - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 10:07 pm: personally, i am fascinted by yellow dog’s assumption that democrats will simply abandon an open seat because, gasp!, the wrong kind of democrat wins the primary! it’s not like anyone wants to take back the house or anything — and an open seat is the *best* chance to do that. (i’m assuming that ydd didn’t know that.) my own theory is that it’s easier to raise money than it is to excite the base. again, i offer john kerry as an example. for those who weren’t paying attention, kerry was still trying to convince the democratic base to vote for him in the last couple of weeks of 2004 (and he still won a smaller percentage of democrats than bush won republicans). but he sure raised a lot of money! yep, money is the panacea all right! don’t get me wrong, i’m disappointed by cegelis’ fund-raising to date, as well. but she has the activist base, and i don’t think that base will go over to duckworth should she win. i suspect the connection to rahm insures that it won’t. but i fear nothing but trouble in that case… - Anon - Monday, Jan 30, 06 @ 10:59 pm: For me, Cegelis numbers aren’t as troubling. Sure, they are not what I’d like them to be. But she raised more in Q4 than in Q3, and that was with Emanuel and the entire Dem establishment working to cut off her funding and push her out of the race. She raised more a year out from her general than Bean did a year out from hers. Considerably more. $228K for Cegelis to $139K for Bean. Bean had more cash on hand, but she didn’t have the base and volunteer network Cegelis has. And ground game turns out voters. Neighbors talking with their neighbors gets more votes in a primary than does carpetbombing the district with direct mail that gets recycled immediately. And Cegelis fundraising continues to come in. I’ve heard she had her best month in January 2006. She’s ActBlue’s 6th highest fundraiser on their site, with only one candidate - Paul Hackett - having raised more. Cegelis finances might not be what conventional wisdom says they should be, and they are not perfect by any means. But considering the obstacles thrown at her, and the continuing and growing support locally that she has, I’d say her chances are pretty darn good. - Tom DeLay's Mom - Tuesday, Jan 31, 06 @ 12:27 pm: Judging from comments made by “bored now” - it’s painfully obvious that we’re hearing from one of Cegelis’ staffers. If this is, indeed, the case - I’d strongly suggest Bored Now put down the keyboard and get back out to the precincts… One of the biggest digs on the Cegelis Campaign is that it is being run by political amateurs and self-styled campaign gurus who all want to sit around and strategize…begs the question: who’s doing the grunt work? If the Cegelis Campaign spent as much time raising money as they spend whining on blogs - spinning Rahm-related conspiracy theory yarns while bragging about their unimpressive performance in 2004 - she might have had a chance to win this Primary with strong support from the DCCC, Obama, Durbin, and the rest of the Democratic Party. I’d like to propose a new campaign slogan for Ms. Cegelis: “Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda”…ought to come in handy after March 21st. - bored now - Tuesday, Jan 31, 06 @ 1:58 pm: my wife and i always have a good laugh at such idle speculation! please, please, keep it up! it speaks volumes about your analytical skills. which, of course, is demonstrated by the attempted strawman argument that followed! i understand that we have a huge difference of opinion here. the apologists for the status quo back rahm’s bid to buy congressional seats. i don’t. there’s a reason he’s not the one out front in the democrat’s fight against corruption! but it’s not merely the perception that money is the only thing that matters. i don’t happen to agree with anon 10:59 that cegelis’ numbers aren’t troubling. they *are* troubling, and i’ve certainly said so. this is, at least, a $2 million congressional race, and perhaps more. while one can reasonably get there from cegelis’ fundraising, she has to start ramping upward significantly. there is still time, but money DOES MATTER. you can’t win this seat on the grassroots alone (nor on money alone). money matters, but so do other things. i always say that a good campaign is like an onion. when you peel it back, you better see multiple layers. when you peel back one of rahm’s campaigns, the only layer you find is a fat, happy professional political class that made a ton of money off his efforts. good for the pros! but for democrats to win (nationwide), for democrats to take back the house, senate and white house, democratic campaigns need to combine money with sound strategy, solid field work and a passionate, motivated and mobilized supporters. i see no indication that duckworth can or will do this. furthermore, rahm’s emphasis on money alienates those democrats who care most about succeeding here. now there’s a reason for that — clintonians haven’t exactly been in the business of empowering democrats. as a clintonian, rahm is interested in building his base, and getting people indepted to him. democrats in illinois ought to find this approach extremely familiar. he’s a traditional chicago political boss. pretending that democrats actually care about winning the white house — and i’m not sure that this premise is supportable here in illinois, at least not amongst the dominant political class — then it is absolutely critical to empower those people who will get out on the streets and work tirelessly for democratic candidates. christine cegelis has attempted to do this. her campaign has build a nascent organization of activists who will get out there and work to elect democrats. i know, i know, the professional political class is looking down their noses at the grassroots — especially because they aren’t exactly predictable. but cegelis has inspired people who felt helpless, alienated from the political process, to get involved. finally, i take henry hyde at his word that to win this seat you have to be healthy enough to knock on doors. i know, i know, money solves everything, and maybe hyde just didn’t have enough money! but, historically, duckworth finds herself on the wrong end of analogous situations, whether it’s paula hawkins or allen keyes. yes, melissa bean lived outside the district — but that was only because republicans threw her out of the district! duckworth doesn’t have that excuse. combined with the fact that she’s been imposed on the 6th by chicago political bosses aggrevates this significantly. i would think that it would be a much better use of the apologist’s time if it were spent reframing duckworth’s dilemma instead of attacking the messengers! duckworth will need many multiples of the kind of money a cegelis or scott will need to fend off roskam’s predictable attacks (i’m not one to rely on the kindness of strangers, like duckworth — i find her comments about this incredibly naive). the problem with both sides of this debate (although not on *my* part) is that both sides makes assumptions of which i am sceptical. the grassroots assumes that rahm and the dccc will come around if cegelis wins the primary — and i don’t think that’s the case. i suspect that rahm’s bitterness cannot be measured — or contained. i assume that rahm is all about rahm. but the duckworth supporters assume that the grassroots will support duckworth if she wins. i’m fairly sceptical of that assumption, as well. in the end, both sides have a gun to the other side’s head. i’d call this m.a.d… - NancyZ - Wednesday, Feb 8, 06 @ 11:46 pm: Everyone is asking if Scott can turn out the Latino vote. Have you seen the endorsements from 55 Latino store owners? Go to his website as scottforcongress.net. I heard him speak at the Milton Township Democratic meeting tonight. He was very, very good. If a vote were taken for an endorsement I think he would have received 70%. Even Christine’s supporters have good things to say about him. - Js grandma - Thursday, Feb 9, 06 @ 11:43 am: We the people. We the people. We the people. I believe this is an opportunity to get us back in the game. No matter how much money, or how much strategizing, or how much arguing we do, in the end, nobody is going into the booth with me…or you. That’s the time to vote your conscience. Is it to be Top Down or Bottom Up? Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.