Question of the day
Wednesday, Feb 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
We had a lot of activity on the blog yesterday after I posted a few lines about Ron Gidwitz’s new TV ad. I figured it might be a good QOTD.
Here’s a roundup of the coverage with the question below.
· The Sun-Times proclaims “Gidwitz gives Topinka a venomous Valentine.”
“Judy Baar Topinka supports bigger government,” the narrator says in the 30-second spot. “More spending. More taxes. More debt.”
Topinka immediately fired off an angry letter to Gidwitz demanding he stop airing the commercials, calling them “reprehensible,” “dishonest” and “blatantly false.”
“He is misguided or he doesn’t understand or he is making a very grievous mistake,” Topinka told the Sun-Times.
Gidwitz campaign manager Joe Calomino said they have no plans to pull the commercial.
“The facts are the facts, and she’s wrong,” Calomino said.
There are facts and then there are political facts.
· “Gidwitz ad rips into Topinka’s record” writes the Daily Herald.
Gidwitz’s 30-second ad claims Topinka doubled spending in the treasurer’s office, sponsored a sales tax increase while a state senator and backed billions in new debt.
“Topinka. More of the same when it’s time for a change,†a male announcer’s voice says.
Topinka, who is the front-runner in polls while Gidwitz is running third, said her office has assumed more responsibilities than her predecessor, including the state’s lost-property program. Spending on regular operations has increased from just over $6 million to just under $8 million in her 11 years in office, aides said — far less than the double the ad claims.
“It’s dishonest. If he wants to hit me on something, hit me on something that exists. That is fair,†said Topinka, who started airing her own biographical TV spot Tuesday.
And the Tribune writes:
The ad, called “More,” suggests that Topinka would continue the kind of state government Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich has led.
The ad’s first claim is that Topinka “doubled spending” on her office.
While the number of people in the treasurer’s office has increased during Topinka’s tenure, so have the functions assigned to it in recent years.
Personnel records from the treasurer’s office show that 185 people work for Topinka, compared with 141 in 1995 when she took office.
Her campaign said the additional employees were from other state departments that had duties moved into the treasurer’s office. When compared directly, campaign aides contend she has actually reduced staff.
The question is, what do you think of all this? Will the ad backfire? Will it work?
- McCormick - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 8:22 am:
Back fire indeed. He just lost the Trib endorsement. They don’t like it when you are dishonest.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 8:36 am:
Won’t backfire, but won’t help RG.
Hard for JBT to dispute the she supported bigger government, and more debt since she has remained relatively silent on the Blago budget shinanigans.
She is also going to walk into an AFSME add running around the state which says if we need more money for state services we should “get it from those who can afford it.” Hard for her to downplay she is for raising taxes when the Union that enorsed her is running that add.
- Publius - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:06 am:
Negative advertising works. Period.
This hurts Topinka. Her lead is based on name ID, not stong personal perceptions of her and/or her record.
She’s been very passive about defining herself in this race so far, and now, I’m betting she’s going to pay the price.
The big winner, unfortunately, will be Oberweis — unless Brady comes into a lot of cash.
- Illinois Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:07 am:
JBT is doing the same thing the current Governor did in his campaign. Tell the people what they want to hear and do just the opposite.
- Shelbyville - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:08 am:
Republicans just don’t get it. Why tear each other up? We are all one team. Either understand that or turn in the uniform.
The ad is not all that earth shattering. Gidwitz
doesn’t have a chance and his desperation shows.
- ISU REP - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:11 am:
I would disagree, negative adveristing doesn’t always work, it usually turns many voters off if the person that the ad is attacking responds to it correctly it makes them look like they are above the fray. I would also disagree many people don’t have personal perceptions of her or for that matter know some of things her office does. For instance, if you mention Cash Dash they tie that to Judy. It was only a matter of time before the frontrunner was going to be attacked, Gidwitz should pack it up and go home.
- Anon - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:23 am:
Sbelbyville, what fantasy world are you living in? Someone deserves unquestioned support and votes just because they put an R behind their name? Would you say the same thing about people like Scott Fawell or George Ryan. There’s no uniform.
Wrong policies are wrong policies. Judy has much to answer for.
- Tony Soprano - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:33 am:
Calomino got laid off from Topinka’s office 2 years ago.. I guess this is his form of ‘retaliation’.
- Son of a Sailor - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:40 am:
This is more of the same on the beat Judy Campaign
http://www.stoptopinka.com
- Tony Soprano - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:50 am:
wow.. if all rod has on her is that she marched in a parade then he is in trouble!
- Son of a Sailor - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:56 am:
That’s not from Rod, It’s from the right silly
- SenorAnon. - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:08 am:
“…if the person that the ad is attacking responds to it correctly it makes them look like they are above the fray.”
If you’re explaining, you’re losing.
- Beowulf - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:18 am:
I talked to a Democrat friend that is well connected with Blago. He said that Blago has truckloads of dirt to shovel on Judy when the time is right after the Primary. They have just been stockpiling it up for when they will need it.
Gidwitz, Brady, and Oberweis should have taken off the kid gloves with Judy months ago. Blago will be wearing brass knuckles when he meets her, not kid gloves.
The only thing that the GOP contenders have managed to do so far is get an invitation to join the “GOP Gentlemen’s Club”. On March 22nd, they will also have the opportunity to join the “GOP Also-Rans Club”.
There is nothing wrong with negative political ads as long as they are “truthful” political ads. Anybody that says Judy or anyone else should be given a “free pass” as far as negative political ads go is simply dooming the Illinois GOP to another 4 years of living in the darkness. The purpose of the GOP Primary is to see who the strongest candidate is, it is not a “kiss-kiss” play nice contest. Rod will chew Judy up and spit her out after the Primary is over with. He will NOT play by the Marquis of Queensbury rules that some of you think we should play by. I am sure that you mean well and in a perfect world, I would also like to abide by your rule book. But, this is not The Perfect World but instead, this is Illinois that we live in. When you live in a corrupt state where you are either the predator or the prey, you had better opt for being the predator if you wish to continue on with your species.
- Shelbyville - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:26 am:
All I know is, the only Republican to come to our county fair was Judy. No one else cares about downstate. Also, Scott wasn’t an office holder. George Ryan spent a lot of time downstate. He is still well liked.
- YNM - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:28 am:
turn in the uniform? really? maybe that’s why so many in this state have a reluctant-at-best perception of the GOP. you are in our camp, or you’re not … forget intellectual freedom or anything like that. you CAN NOT disagree with us, or we will bankroll the candidate we want, yada, yada, yada …
i happen to think some disagreement within a party can be good … but i don’t know how effective negative ads are.
- Never Judy - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:36 am:
Shelbyville: Your “GOP:we’re all one team” tag would resonate if every GOPer played by those rules. The most prominent violator of your rule is Judy. Here is just a short list of some Republican candidates and party folks who she has knifed in the past (there are others): Alan Keyes, Jack Ryan, Gary McDougal, Lou Kasper, Jim Nalepa, the entire State Central Committee of ‘04, Kurt Eckhardt, John McNeal… I ask you, what standing does Judy have to insist on “unity” and the “11th Commandment” when her own history is replete with GOP back-stabbing?
By the way, look at Judy’s video profile on her campaign website…. she unabashedly disparages every political officeholder in her old district at the time she first ran for office…and they were mostly Republicans!
- Walking Wounded - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 11:16 am:
Not to get off the subject but George Ryan is still well liked downstate?? No one I know downstate cares for him. Many of my close friends worked under Ryan for years and if you bring his name up, the only good thing they say is he’s the best friend the Illinois Democrats have ever had.
- Bubs - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 11:41 am:
Ron has merely played the fool for Oberweis, nothing more.
- bmatt - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 12:12 pm:
Can’t see it going over too well … but then again, this race has not
been clear cut from the beginning.
I did have to chuckle a bit when I watched though… the addition at the
end showing RG’s education piece, which I assume was taken from one of the
other ads, looks a bit like an afterthought.
- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 12:24 pm:
“The big winner, unfortunately, will be Oberweis — unless Brady comes into a lot of cash.”
Publius, that is wrong wrong wrong. Ron and Judy are going after the same voters. Obee and Brady are splitting the conservatives. Ron and Judy are splitting the moderates and liberals. The stateworkers are for Judy, and this ad just makes them want to vote for her more. But, the Gidwitz ad will either give him a huge boost, or destroy him. It has nothing to do with Oberweis, he is dead and buried. Gidwitz probably is too. But this is his only shot. We’ll see how this goes in the days to come…
- Inside the PC - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 12:27 pm:
Gidwitz is the only one that has enough money to run the hit piece. JBT’s team shouldn’t let Gidwitz define their client.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 12:28 pm:
Beowulf has it right. Open primaries where contestants are free to critique one another is what led to the election of Peter Fitzgerald and eventually Patrick Fitzgerald, arguably the best thing the GOP hasgoing for it.
Closed primaries — where contestants are browbeat into silence about the weaknesses of their adversaries — is what led the GOP to nominate JACK! Ryan.
If Democrats had been afraid to criticize, we might have nominated Blair Hull instead of Barack Obama.
Let’s not forget that Gidwitz still hasn’t gotten into the fact that Topinka is under investigation for using state resources to campaign, or that she’s raised millions from political insiders, and Oberweis will hammer her on social issues.
And McCormick, the Tribune was never considering a Gidwitz endorsement. The Tribune is part of the GOP Establishment’s propaganda machine, and Judy has been the Combine’s Annointed One since Day One.
- ISU REP - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 12:50 pm:
SenorAnon- You don’t turn ads negative unless you’re so are you merely suggesting that there should be no response at all? Sounds like poor politics to me. As far as Rod taking off the kid gloves, there is no worries…With all the stuff we already know about Rod and even with the stuff we don’t know which i’m sure will start to appear after the primary. There’s more than enough ammo to make the race interesting, painting blago as the patron saint of politics whose waiting to pounce on a corrupt JBT is laughable. I don’t think there is a question of who theres more dirt on cough cough cement bricks cough cough.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 1:16 pm:
The problem with the dirt on Rod is it has all been aired and there is no shock value left. If No one starts hitting judy now, Rod will unload on March 22 and the shock of another republican with mud on them will end this before the 4th of July. Perhaps in an unwitting twist of fate, Judy would withdraw from the ticket allowing JACK! to step in for a shot at the title.
- ISU REP - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 2:01 pm:
That would make too much sense knowing the Illinois GOP they’d find another out of state ultra right wing yahoo to run again…because apparently thats their recipe for complete success?! NEWSFLASH: We are not in dixie!
- um, ok - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 2:47 pm:
That for showing us the virtue of a Democrat primary vs. a GOP primary YDD.
- southernilrepub - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 2:48 pm:
ISU Newsflash: Its not MA here! JBT is not clean either she’s got some skeletons in the closet. Honestly if JBT is elected in the primary, many people may stay home in Nov.
- Papa Legba - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 3:05 pm:
Beowulf -
You say that “Rod will chew Judy up and spit her out.” Huh??? How do you figure that will happen? GRod is nothing special, rather dull if you ask me. I would say he is a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic but he forgot to bring the whole basket.
Yellow Dog -
Are you trying to say JBT has more skeletons than GRod? Hmmm, that’s a reach.
The democrats took down Blair Hull? I seem to remember it was the media and his ex-wife that smacked him down.
The Tribune is part of the GOP Establishment’s propaganda machine? That’s the best one yet. Their reporters write stories on Blago’s mishaps but the Editorial Board has been patting him on the back lately. The Tribune is also gives the gov just what he craves… a big fat headline on their Sunday edition promoting GRods latest empty pander.
- Walking Wounded - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 5:59 pm:
Patriot, how do you know that “the dirt” on Rod has all been aired? I don’t claim to be in the know, but I believe he will be linked as “Public Official A” in some future scandal and/or indictment. Things should get real dirty between both parties after the primary.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 6:16 pm:
Two defenses of JBT in the whole Gidwitz attack:
1. JBT voted for a tax increase during a recession. I may be young but I don’t remember the economy being to great in 1990.
2. JBT has called for the elimination of the Comptroller and LG positions which, in my book, equals less government. Her office may have grown, but is it possible that perhaps that growth was necessary. I’m not defending bigger government, though.
Gidwitz really should have stood on the sidelines for this one and just poured tons of campaign cash into the eventual GOP nominee’s coffers. He is basically wiping his ass with his money and for what? 10%? I agree that party/establishment favorites aren’t always the best strategy or the most compelling but sometimes they are for the better. This year, Blago has too much money for some maverick guy like Oberweis to come in and play outsider. We need someone who can reach across party lines and rake in the national cash EVEN IF IT IS FROM KARL ROVE AND PRESIDENT BUSH. Oberweis would get creamed by Blago in the general election (as would Brady and Gidwitz).
In response to YDD’s tapping of the Trib, I have to say that they are a Republican-leaning paper. So what? The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is a leftist paper, and the Sun-Times is left-leaning as well. The SJ-R…well, who knows with them. But it’s nice to have a large paper balance out the media spectrum in this state. You don’t like the paper? Don’t read it! So what if they’re a shill for the GOP? I suppose that it’s okay for other papers to be shills for the Dems?
- Norseman - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 7:26 pm:
Persons with selective memory need a reminder that Gov Puffery is the subject of numerous investigations. Shall we say Public Official “A.” As far as “dirt” on a candidate, there is a landfill on Blago. The only problem will be that the Republican candidate’s lack of money will prevent her or him from effectively getting the word out.
- Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 8:30 pm:
Little economics lesson for you, Team Sleep: You cut taxes during a recession, not raise them. Taxes need to be raised when the economy is overheating and there is excessive inflation. More taxes mean less business. Less taxes mean more business. So, if she wants to raise taxes during a recession, she is supporting bigger government. Not only that, but her vote really says that she is worried more about government rather than the voters.
- Swami - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 9:59 pm:
Judy has been a person of her word. For this reason, she will beat Blo-puffer-vich.
- BS Cons - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:14 pm:
Folks, we are only getting half the story here.
The tax increase she proposed was a swap to get senior tax relief, similar to these conservatives who want to go to a local tax option for property tax relief.
As usual, no good deed goes unpunished.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 15, 06 @ 10:26 pm:
Gidwitz is a pathetic egomaniac. He has no chance in hell of winning and has no business in this race. My dog has more charisma. He’s using slumlord money to finance his smear campaign. I hope he’s happy to write those checks while women and children get raped and murdered in that hellhole he runs
- RightWing Republican - Thursday, Feb 16, 06 @ 12:20 am:
I can’t believe the so-called politicos on this page. Negative ads always (I REPEAT - ALWAYS) have an effect in a race. The effect is thus: The one who is attacked loses points in a multi-candidate race(ALWAYS). The attacker gains slightly, but the greatest gain goes to the other candidates not involved in the fray. In a two-person race, the attacked candidate loses suppoort, and voter turnout is reduced by those who stay home because of the negative campaign - BUT the ultimate advantage generally goes to the attacker.
The exception is when a candidate is seen as mean, ala the Penny Severens campaign when that FBI agent who took a bullet for Reagan (and whose name I can’t remember) looked like he was on his way to victory when it was perceived by the voters that he started beating up on Penny because she had cancer. He had his head handed to him.
Where did you guys study political science?
The results, if Gidwitz continues to use his money to bash Topinka, is that she drops in the polls, he rises very slightly, and the other two (Brady and Obiewon) receive the most benefit of the Gidwitz attack.
- Anon - Thursday, Feb 16, 06 @ 8:37 am:
ISU
Rightwing Republican stole some of my thunder, but not all.
Of the many races I’ve run/worked on, I can specifically remember at least two where we made the conscious decision to “take the high road.” We lost both.
When the other guy’s gloves come off, your’s have to as well. That’s just the way it works. The dynamics in this race are interesting because of the number of candidates, but Judy still has to hit back and hit back hard. But it will still hurt her, because so many voters right now are basing their choice on name ID.
As for negative ads in a primary in general, this is good for the Republican party. This stuff all needs to be out there for Republican voters so we don’t have another Jack Ryan. Better all the cards be on the table heading into the general.
We all knew this was coming. We just didn’t know exactly when it would start. Now we know.