(Important update below. Until I hear back from the pollster, I have almost zero confidence in these poll results.)

(Second important update below. The pollster has now explained this and I now believe the numbers.)

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll is out. See all results here.

REPUBLICAN SECTION (500 PRIMARY VOTERS)
MARGIN FOR ERROR IS 4.5%

QUESTION: If the primary election for Governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

ALL MEN WOMEN 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Judy Baar Topinka 36% 32% 40% 38% 34% 36% 35%
Jim Oberweis 25% 28% 22% 23% 27% 26% 27%
Ron Gidwitz 19% 20% 18% 22% 17% 20% 18%
Bill Brady 11% 13% 9% 8% 14% 11% 13%
Andy Martin 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 2%
Undecided 8% 6% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5%

And here are the Dem results.

DEMOCRATIC SECTION (323 DEMOCRATS IN OVERALL SAMPLE) MARGIN FOR ERROR IS 5.8%
QUESTION: If the primary election for Governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
Rod Blagojevich 61%
Edwin Eisendrath 26%
Undecided 13%

They asked a million questions, but apparently didn’t do the state treasurer’s race.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: (Deleted because the pollster explained his numbers.)

IMPORTANT UPDATE 2: I just got off the phone with the pollster. He explained that he went back and did an oversample of likely Republican primary voters, which, for whatever reason, the Post-Dispatch never explained.

Some of those in the original sample of 247 Republicans were used (those who said they were voting in the primary) along with those in the follow-up oversample who said they were likely GOP primary voters. So, the numbers do add up to 500 Republicans and, more importantly, they are Republican primary voters.

Sorry for the momentary confusion (caused by faulty Post-Dispatch reporting). But these numbers do appear to be correct.

UPDATE: For a little context, here is the last Tribune poll from early February (I hear the Trib is in the field now and will have results maybe by Tuesday). The new Post-Dispatch numbers are bracketed.

Topinka 38 [36]
Oberweis 17 [25]
Gidwitz 11 [19]
Brady 8 [11]
Martin <1 [1]
Undecided 25 [8]

Blagojevich 62 [61]
Eisendrath 18 [26]
Other 2
Undecided 18 [13]

Topinka has mostly held, while everyone else is moving up. That’s to be expected. She is essentially an incumbent type of candidate, so it wasn’t too hard to figure that undecideds would mostly break away from her. As long as her opponents are splitting the vote as undecideds begin to make up their minds, Topinka stays on top. If someone can consolidate that group, she’s in trouble.

Gidwitz is running a new TV ad (no link yet) that attacks both Topinka and Oberweis. He and his family have dropped more than $1.3 million into the campaign this week alone. He’s reportedly running 50/50 positives and negatives in his latest ad buy.

UPDATE: Sunday’s Tribune “almost” endorses Eisendrath, but not quite. Neither candidate gets the nod, but the Tribune does close with this: “Democrats who want to send a message to the governor have a way to convey it: Vote for Edwin Eisendrath.”