Like a drunken sailor?
Monday, May 8, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
I wonder whether he can keep up this spending pace. Subscribers saw how I laid it out this morning. Now it’s your turn to guess.
In the month after winning his party’s renomination, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich used his massive campaign war chest to fill TV screens with $1.7 million worth of commercials for a general election half a year away, according to a firm that tracks political ads.
Since January, Blagojevich has spent $6.2 million on nearly 7,500 television commercials that have aired across the state. That includes $4.5 million worth of ads he bought during the March Democratic primary campaign in which he faced only nominal opposition from former Chicago Ald. Edwin Eisendrath, according to TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group.
And the firm’s officials say Blagojevich is now spending an astounding $800,000 a week on commercials for a general election that won’t be held until Nov. 7. […]
Doug Scofield, a top campaign adviser to Blagojevich, said the campaign’s decision to air TV ads so early did not reflect potential problems for the governor’s re-election. Instead, it is aimed at countering any lasting effects of a primary campaign in which every candidate running for governor, “at regular and expensive intervals,” criticized the incumbent, Scofield said.
Scofield said the campaign believes its TV spending has been $5.5 million, rather than the $6.2 million reported by CMAG. He defended the use of early attack ads against Topinka as necessary to communicate issues “important to people in the state” and “to give voters the facts on things that people mislead them on.”
Topinka has come under some criticism in Republican circles for failing to take to the airwaves to counteract Blagojevich’s attack ads. Instead of responding with TV commercials, Topinka has relied on free media appearances to criticize Blagojevich for a lack of credibility. Her campaign contends that any boost Blagojevich might get from the early TV ads would be short-lived.
As I pointed out in this morning’s Capitol Fax, the same thing is happening in Pennsylvania.
Aided by a $1-million-plus TV advertising blitz, Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has opened a 14-point lead in his re-election campaign against Republican challenger Lynn Swann, according to the latest Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-Channel 4 Keystone poll.
And as I noted Saturday, Blagojevich’s TV spending doesn’t include nightly tracking polls, the placement fees to his ad consultant, the production costs of the ads, the direct mail, the basic campaign infrastructure costs, etc.
- Beowulf - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 6:14 am:
This early television media blitz by Blagojevich probably is a good idea for the following reasons:
1) He has plenty of money in his war chest so he can easily afford it.
2) The attention of the voter is very hard to get when you get down to 2-3 months before election day. Voters are already burnt out from political ads so they tune them out.
3) Political ads now are like the Chinese water torture method. The slow “drip by drip” method ingrains it’s message into the voter’s mind without his even knowing it.
4) Convince the public that your opponent is incompetent months before they have a chance to defend themselves and the majority of people will willingly accept what they been told. After all, it was on television (Truth in Advertising) so it must be true.
- Anonymous - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 6:20 am:
Yo, Sco, how much of the taxpayers money money has been illegally spent/stolen by this administration?
Sco, you say there are not any problems but the ads are “countering any lasting effects”? What exactly is the difference?
- bored now - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 6:43 am:
how much money is blagojevich raising? clinton was able to raise *more* money when he attacked dole in april 1996 because he could show financial need — he was spending all his money! otoh, dole’s fund-raising took a severe downturn…
- Rod who? - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 7:33 am:
I think it is telling that after spending this much money, he hasn’t really opened up a large lead against Topinka. She’s right about the fact that the commercials suffer from the fact the source is not credible. However, Rod’s lies and half-truths need to be challeneged at every opportunity. They need to get their media “truth squads” out there to keep nibbling away at that credibility issue.
- DOWNSTATE - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 8:08 am:
There is a large block with an axe to grind with this governor so I don’t think that his money is going to be a big factor.With all the money he has spent and Ryan’s conviction he should be 25% ahead.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 9:45 am:
We all know the old wives tales about how negative ads work, and how early ads do this or that for a campaign. We aren’t debating it.
What he is doing is running the poorest, lousiest crap advertising ever. His staff has to be unbelievably arrogant to believe that these ads inform or persuade anyone. Blagojevich isn’t swiftboating anyone. These ads are too farcical to be believed.
So, all these comments about the benefits of negative ads are useless. That isn’t the point. What we would like to know is can an ad campaign as badly done as this one be effective too? I can’t imagine it working.
Also Topinka is no Swann. She has been a state officer for eight years longer than Blagojevich, while Swann has no experience. Swann can be molded with effective negative ads right now, and frankly, so could Topinka.
Blagojevich is wasting his money. I agree with other bloggers that his anti-Topinka ads are very embarrassing to viewers and there will be a blow-back against them, by voters with brains.
- Lovie's Leather - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 9:47 am:
Whoa whoa whoa whoa… whoa… That Rendell poll is an exception. Most polls show Rendell and Swann neck and neck. Way to handpick the one poll that shows Rendell way up, Rich….
- Mr. Ethics - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 10:14 am:
All this ad spending is good for the Illinois economy. About time some of Rods money gets back in cirulation.
- Merlin - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 10:32 am:
It is not quantity of ads that resonate with voters it is the quality of the message. These ads simply do not hurt. They appear amateurish, not well thought out and potentially incorrect.
Further, the very fact that the governor is spending so much, so early, reinforces how much money he has collected and provides evidence of pay to play. Pay to play is an issue that does resonate with the voters and this early spending will be used as an issue later that will cost votes.
They would have been better off donating the 6 million to the schools rather than donating it to the media.
- ZC - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 12:38 pm:
If the ads work, then he’ll open up a lead on Judy, and then he’ll have no difficulty whatsoever raising money as the election nears. Anticipated victory will convince a bring a lot of big-ticket donors back on board the Rod train.
If the ads don’t work, then it doesn’t particularly matter whether or not he could have spent _more_ money on _more_ ineffective ads come fall.
So strategically, his early, heavy ad buy makes sense. Rod’s campaign people know what they are doing.
- the Patriot - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 1:41 pm:
His problem is he has not stopped campaigning since the day he was elected, so people are tired of it.
He is the best campaigner this state has seen in a long time, but one has to wonder, why would an encumbent want to spend more then 10 million of his warchest before the 4th of July. That puts him with 4 months to go and probably about as much money as his opponent.
Very risky strategy for an incumbent who thinks he is a shoe in. I just think he doesn’t know what else to do other then campaign.
- Papa Legba - Monday, May 8, 06 @ 4:03 pm:
People don’t want to see politicians, especially credibility challenged ones, patting themselves on the back in a rah-rah way EVERY night. The ads come across as an infomercial for something you would never want to or consider buying. His numbers may have gone up but that is probably due to the intellectually challenged finally recognizing who the guy is. And that is after four months of having his face staring at you during the nightly news. At this burn rate he may be in need of more money to counter ads exposing his warts come late summer.
- Grubnednarb - Tuesday, May 9, 06 @ 8:34 am:
Just finished reading a book,Take It Back, by Carville and Begala. They mention a theory,low information rationality, which suggests that “voters infer - they reach braoder conclusions based upon the limited information available to them.”
Carville/Begala also note that the Bush Campaign succeeded in defining Kerry as weak,waffling,and indecisive,despite his record as a war hero and as a distinguished United States Senator with genuine intellectual heft. The Bush Campaign made Kerry the isue rather than Bush’s performance in office. Consequently,Bush who ultimately will be judged by history as the one of the worst Presidents,was reelected despite national approval ratings below 50%.
Although I still expect a reasonably close election, it appears to me that the Governor’s campaign team may succeed in defining Topinka negatively. Since she is unable to respond effectively, the weight of these ads is likely to have a devastating impact upon her image and her electability. Topinka is a likeable moderate, but she is at best a mediocrity. It is unlikely that she will overcome tha national Democratic trend, particularly given that the Republican party’s conservative base is discouraged and disillusioned..
“Drunken sailor” media spending strategy is likely to be highly successful as long as Blago campaign team has enough money for the entire campaign through November. Fundraising and Rod’s master campaigning skills are his strong points.