Numbers
Thursday, Jun 22, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Kristen McQueary got ahold of some 19th Ward poll numbers. They’re old, but perhaps useful for our purposes. Figure that the governor’s numbers are unchanged and that Topinka’s have dropped when you’re reading this.
To get a head start, the South Side’s 19th Ward organization commissioned a poll earlier this year to examine voters’ moods and evaluate opinions toward incumbent Ginger Rugai, challenger John Somerville and other public officials.
The February poll of 401 registered 19th Ward voters also tested the soil for Blagojevich, Mayor Richard Daley and Topinka.
The 19th Ward is a sensible sample of voters statewide; it’s diverse, politically active and independent-leaning. The ward and the poll reflect the mood of the “undecideds” who swing elections. […]
Only 33 percent of voters gave Blagojevich a positive rating. That’s considerably lower than a statewide tracking poll from Survey USA, which has measured his negative ratings at around 43 percent for several months. […]
Topinka got a positive nod from 42 percent of 19th Ward voters back in February. Only 18 percent held an unfavorable view of her, which is notable considering the strong Democratic ties in the ward.
No wonder Blagojevich came out swinging as soon as the polls closed March 21. He may be too damaged to hoist his own numbers, but he’ll do everything he can to crush hers.
Daley received a positive rating from 71 percent of respondents.
- Bill Baar - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 7:52 am:
Topinka got a positive nod from 42 percent of 19th Ward voters back in February. Only 18 percent held an unfavorable view of her, which is notable considering the strong Democratic ties in the ward.
Somebody took a verbal shot at me here once when I wrote the only people I know who are most gungho for JBT are regular Cook County Dems in the near west burbs.
- Snidely Whiplash - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:09 am:
“The 19th Ward is a sensible sample of voters statewide; it’s diverse, politically active and independent-leaning.”
OH GOD, PLEASE STOP … IT’S TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR ME TO BE LAUGHING THIS HARD!!!
- Snidely Whiplash - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:11 am:
About this part, of course: “The 19th Ward is … independent-leaning.”
- old dem - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:12 am:
The 19th Ward was virulently opposed to Blago 4 years ago.
- DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:31 am:
Well so much for the myth that Blago has Chicago sewed up.
- Wumpus - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:37 am:
If they had a halfway decent anti-JBT campaign slogan, he may be over 50% in the polls. What’s he thinking? At least Peracia’s campaign ads are memorably bad, not just bad like Blago’s.
- Big Al - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 9:09 am:
I’m interested to see polls further east in African American communities. I assure you Blago is not as popular there as everyone cares to believe.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 9:54 am:
What you are saying Rich about this poll is correct. Blagojevich will be sinking another 10 million in anti-Judy ads in an attempt to win in November.
Blagojevich will get uglier.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 10:08 am:
How did Ginger Rugai fare in the poll?
- Randall Sherman, Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 10:46 am:
It would appear that Ms. McQueary is not getting enough sleep (being a new mom can often do that to a woman, I’m told), because how else can you explain the inclusion of the term “independent-leaning” to describe the 19th Ward in her column?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 10:50 am:
Randall and others who have commented here, when it comes to Democratic primaries the 19th often has a mind of its own. Obama darned near won it, Lisa Madigan had big trouble there, and Paul Vallas was a favorite. It is “diverse” because of a high number of African-Americans. It’s not all Irishmen.
- Chance Gardener - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 10:51 am:
For those arounf the stste that may not know the 19th ward is home to Sheriff Mike Sheahan, Jeremiah Joyce and other folks that run Chicago and Cook County. The governor is hated there because the same folks were backing Paul Vallas. If you look at the clout list in the current trial in Chicago many of the big shots and people who got jobs were from the 19th ward, To say “The 19th Ward is a sensible sample of voters statewide; it’s diverse, politically active and independent-leaning.†is a joke, it is a super ward and I guess because they win elections so well they think its ok for them to rip off the taxpayers.
…all is well - and all will be well - in the garden
- Bill Baar - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 11:02 am:
Irish or African American, it sounds like plenty of voters in the 19th would enjoy a polka up at Sokol Stickney.
- Cook Dem - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 11:14 am:
Rich, maybe you can find us some numbers from 1893 to look at. I mean they would be useful for our purposes since we could examine how people felt about corruption before we were born.
And McQuery isn’t getting off easy on this either. Dig through crosstabs on something recent and statewide instead of taking some microcosm approach to reiterate what we already all know.
Rod needs to go negative because his approval is low.
Honestly, this is lazy. Now, you want to compare it to past election results and talk about how Rod’s formula to 51 percent has changed from 02? Then you got something that’s not bird cage lining.
- Northshore ward - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 11:23 am:
For the people bashing the 19th ward…..you’re all just jealous of them. I live up North (47th)and have watched them out maneuver us for years. Sheahan, Dart, Hynes, Houlihan, Joyce, etc. They know how to deliver and how to win elections. The North side has gained momentum over the past few years but we still have ways to go.
- 19th ward dem - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 12:08 pm:
I’m not sure about “independent thinking”. The Organization was backing Eisendrath all the way. This has no bearing on “statewide” sentiment.
It is just wishful thinking on the part of Blago haters.
- 19 - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 12:15 pm:
As a resident of the 19th, Rich is correct. There is diversity and there is independence… to a degree. Some of the independence (as indicated) stems from the political powers not always backing the typical Dem. (Vallas over Blag, Obama over Rush, etc.)
The other independence stems from a new influx of folks who did not grow up in the community and have their own opinions that differ marketly for the ward organization. Also, there are quite a number of closet Republicans in the ward as well.
The ward can count on a core group of Dems to vote the way of the ward, but increasingly, possibly up to half of the voters go their own way.
This is not your father’s 19th Ward anymore.
- ron - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 12:27 pm:
latest rasmussen poll has bush at 43% favorable and 55% unfavorable. rasmussen poll has been the most accurate poll when compared to the actual results over the last few election cycles. regarless of the ward, if blago can’t outpoll bush, well i would say blago has got big problems.
- Sammy Esposito - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 12:34 pm:
Rich and McQueary ar right. The 19th Ward does often vote more independently than that the other organization wards. Look at the numbers, nay sayers.
As Rich mentioned, the ward is about 20 percent black and there are a growing number of affluent, liberal-leaning voters moving into Beverly. (Not a lot of firefighters or city workers can afford the $800,000 homes on Longwood Drive.) Obama won a number of majority white precincts in the 19th against native son Dan Hynes and Lisa Madigan would have lost the ward to Schmidt if it wasn’t for the near unanimous African-American support she received. Also, the 19th usually produces the second or third highest Republican vote in the city.
Of course, it all relative. The 19th Ward is not Oak Park or Evanston by any means, but it ain’t the 11th or 13th Ward either.
- PalosParkBob - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 2:25 pm:
As a former resident of the 19th, I can attest to the fact that it is indeed independent.
Voters there are completely free to vote for Daley’s favorite Democratic candidate or Madigan’s favorite Democratic candidate.
Worth Township Republican Committeeman Maureen Murphy published a Guest Editorial this week in McQueary’s paper explaining that she was blocking and objecting to candidacies of Republicans in the State Rep and Senate districts containing parts of the 19th, because the Dems there are intransigent and immovable from their Dem roots, and providing any resources to Republican candidates there is a “waste of resources” and Republican candidates there might compete with “real Republicans” like her for campaign dollars.
Either she’s lying, or the 19th is something far less than “independent” when it comes to voting for Republicans.
- Snidely Whiplash - Thursday, Jun 22, 06 @ 8:17 pm:
“Voters there are completely free to vote for Daley’s favorite Democratic candidate or Madigan’s favorite Democratic candidate.”
BINGO! You said it, Bob!