Animal Farm has been MIA recently, but they were back today with this:
The Associated Press reported last week that the national Democrats reserved $30 million worth of TV ad time in targeted congressional races this fall.
The Chicago suburbs have two of the most closely watched House races: the 6th District pitting Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam against Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth, and 8th District U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean defending against Republican businessman David McSweeney.
If the Democrats follow up on that planned ad buy — money isn’t due yet and plans could change - a whopping $4.4 million of that $30 million will end up on Chicago airwaves. That’s according to the media buyer of one congressional campaign. The ads would air Oct. 17 through Election Day, with $2.2 million presently targeted against Roskam and the other $2.2 million targeted against McSweeney. Or for Duckworth and Bean, if you prefer.
- Danimal - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 2:35 pm:
That’s some serious money, and makes me confident in saying that both Bean and Duckworth win this November.
- Wumpus Extremus Maximus - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:00 pm:
Duckworth has too far to go. Bean may be ahead or a dead heat. What really matters most is feet on the ground. if the unions hold to their pledge not to back Bean, she is toast. Duckworth will lose unless Roskam slaughters and eats a baby during one of their debates.
- BuckTurgidson - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:17 pm:
“if the general election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote,'’ 35 percent said Roskam and 34 percent said Duckworth, according to the Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal poll, which has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
- NW burbs - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 3:49 pm:
Why anyone would listen to a conservative (Wumpus) about unions and Democrats is beyond me… It’d be like listening to Michael Moore explain why the religious fundamentalists are going to sit at home this November because Armageddon hasn’t yet come about in the Middle East (though who knows by Election Day)…
Besides Wumpus, Buck proved you wrong by quoting recent polling on the 6th (ie, Roskam has no advantage in the “conservative” 6th).
I have yet to see anyone definitively indicate just what the unions actually *did do* for Bean in 04.
I saw a lot of shooting of the breeze and eating of the donuts by union guys, but not so much canvassing or GOTV. And she doesn’t need union money, nor does a union endorsement mean much in the most conservative district in Illinois. Maybe I’m wrong on all that, but somehow I don’t think so.
But the Lake County Dems’ volunteers seemed to do most of the sort of actual work that gets incumbents reelected. That’s where Bean has to watch her back, Seals and Duckworth may sap that volunteer base away from the 8th.
- Niles Township - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 4:22 pm:
The TV stations are jumping up & down with excitement. TV ads will be bought for the governor’s race, 2 congressional races, state treasurer’s race and county board president’s race plus the assorted last minute ads for other races. Looks to be a good year for Illinois broadcasters.
- Daniel Darling - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 9:13 pm:
Why can’t the GOP do a $4.4 million ad buy? What is stopping them?
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Jul 25, 06 @ 10:01 pm:
NW Burbs, didn’t I say if? I really don’t see what I said that would make people question whther or not to listen to me. If you could read, i simply said if the unions don’t walk for her holding to teir pledge not to support her, she is toast. I didn’t say they weren’t or would not. Read first, then type. McSweeney is short in the money race, but he has more walkers/door knockers. He is not Crane, he is energetic and that should pay off to regain this republican district.
So the unions did not knock on doors for Bean? Union money would help, but she has plenty from Emily’s list. She is not hurting financially.
- NW burbs - Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 10:37 am:
Wumpus, you said if the unions hold back from Bean she’d be toast…
…Considering all their “help” finishing off donuts two years ago I say don’t bother listening to what you type.
Thus, why would anyone listen to a conservative about a Democratic race (and vice versa) in the first place? You don’t know what you’re talking about.
- Wumpus - Wednesday, Jul 26, 06 @ 7:33 pm:
Is this the primary? this is a race between a dem and a GOPer. This is not Duckworth v Cegalis. “if the unions hold to their pledge not to back Bean, she is toast” is what I said. We disagree on what the unions did to help her. I say they walked precincts, you say they ate donuts. I never said they developped strategies, but reading comprehension is not your strong point obviously…neithe ris logic.