45 Comments - Chinaman - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:05 am: The Illinois Republican numbers will improve along with the country. The closer we get to the election. Again the Republicans will confirm the Democrats are weak on security. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:07 am: Hmmm, I read that as good, bad, good. Is this the new Leader board? - bored now - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:09 am: this is good news for seals in the 10th and bad news for duckworth in the 6th. it’s probably decent news for melissa bean (that spread of dissatisfaction among republicans is probably just enough to solidify her victory). i haven’t a clue how this plays out in the 11th, which seems to have other problems. regardless, it’s all about mobilization and turn-out. melissa bean is looking good — be interesting to see what happens in the rest of these increasingly competitive districts… - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:10 am: Good point, anonymous. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:11 am: Sorry for the snark, long week. - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:15 am: Bored Now: How do you come up with the idea that this is bad for Duckworth? - bored now - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:19 am: democrats are weak on security??? are you friggin’ kidding me? i can’t see how it’s possible to get any weaker on security than george bush. bush turned away from an enemy that attacked this country on its shores in order to pursue an elective (and immoral) war on his daddy’s foe. since that time, using the white house’s own estimates, the number of al-qaeda operatives has grown ten-fold, the number of our reliable allies has considerably diminished and our ability to project power has been remarkably curtailed. we are stuck in another quagmire desperately trying to figure a way out. we have a president who has absolutely no credibility with other world leaders (except for howard and blair), burgeoning nuclear crises, and a middle east conflict that can be laid squarely at the feet of an impotent president. if you think that democrats are weak on defense you must be utterly embarrassed by our pathetic president. i’m not exactly one of tammy duckworth’s friends, but at least she served. she didn’t turn tail and run. you can’t say that about a lot of elected republicans… - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:20 am: This is even more telling and probably a bad sign for incumbents across the board, but especially Republicans since they are in power. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14044391/ - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:22 am: Bored Now - I agree with you, I am asking you how those numbers are bad for Duckworth? I dont see that. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:25 am: Remember, folks, come up with your own ideas, don’t regurgitate talking points. And stay on Illinois, OK? - bored now - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:30 am: hankster: the composition of the sixth is such that the rnc survey suggests to me that a decent modern republican organization can hold off even a strong challenge in that kind of district. moreover, the addition of the voter vault to the 6th gives roskam a technological edge that even the best democratic political organization can’t match. duckworth needs to make more gains among republican voters and become dramatically better at turning out id’ed supporters in order to compete… (caveat: the lack of partisan registration makes national surveys extremely hard to judge races in illinois accurately.) - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:36 am: Bored Now: I see the 6th moving more and more towards the middle. They have for sure moved more independent. So when I see these numbers and then you have Duckworth who has positioned herself well are a moderate and comparing that to Roskam who has made every effort to be with the national republicans I see positives out of those numbers. - Tweed - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:44 am: I’m not saying anything in this survey is false, I just wish we could see more of the direct questions. I really wish we could see the 2002 and 2003 ‘Base’ polls they refer to so we could compare and contrast the numbers. I would like to hear if the poll started out as “The Republican National Committee Base Poll” or something like that. If it was too obvious that this was a Republican poll, it’s kind of like having a mom conduct a poll of her children and asking them whether or not they are going to eat their veggies. “I think this is the biggest problem for Republicans from the AP poll: More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall’s congressional elections - 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest.” Right now Democrats have 66% of the Senate seats from the Great Lake states (think Big Ten states with Iowa included and PA not) yet only 33% of the Congressional seats. Now everyone always has a different idea of what states make up the Midwest, but I’m going to guess that it’s more Great Lakes than Great Plains (or Big 12 & the Dakotas if you will) for the AP. This might be decent news for Republicans nationally, but I think this is great news for Democrats around here. I’m not sure why it’s bad for Duckworth, good for Seals, but I’d enjoy hearing why on that one. Tweed - Pat Collins - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 11:47 am: 6th. Roskam needs to start talking about ADULT stem cells, and how many therapies using those are in final testing, vs embryo stem cells. Then he can ask why Duckworth wants to spend money on the less promising therapy. He really needs to hit immigration as an issue. It worked in MI. 8th Same as 6th really. Allegedly the unions are mad at Bean, and yet: 1) No primary challenger for Bean. 2) The locals are backing her. Who walks around in the cold of late October? Not the national unions. 3) Bean voted for the tough House immigration bill. Does that immunize her? PO the hispanic vote? Who knows? I sure don’t. Rs can win, but they need to stress that they: A) Wont’ spend like a drunken sailor B) Wont’ back amnesty. C) Can’t see spending money on less promising embrionic stem cells when more promising results are happening with ADULT and stem cord cells. But of course, that assumes that Rs have the courage of their convictions. Darn few seem to. - Tom B - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 12:05 pm: Rich, I’d like to put out a note about that GOP survey that nobody seems to be talking about in the media. The GOP survey is of “BASE” voters. Click through the story and read the memo (or the Hotline Blog has the story as well with the memo) and you see no description of what a BASE voter is. They are not defined as a percentage of the electorate, have no demographic characteristics and have no methodology used to determine them. Therefore, the memo seems much more a PR tool than an actual understanding of the electorate and predictor of the future. We cannot extrapolate how many BASE voters are in a given district if we don’t know what a base voter is. One thing we do know is that they approve of the president with a very high number, something like 80%. Here is what we do know from public polling (and I apologize for using old data, but it’s the one place I know has crosstabs off the top of my head. This trend holds true for other crosstabs we’ve seen in the public). Warning, PDF — http://diageohotlinepoll.com/06_July_Data.pdf Page 6, question 3. George W. Bush very favorable approval among GOP is 48%. So, BASE voters, if they are displaying an 80% approval of the president are a subgroup of GOP voters. So, we as readers are to believe, that with 90% of Democrats voting against the president and 60-65% of independents voting against the president that they can win with BASE voters, a SMALLER group than all Republican voters? I don’t think so. Tom B. - Veritas - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 12:54 pm: Bored Now, Apparently you’ve never worked with Voter Vault. I wouldn’t call it a technological advantage. I’d classify it as better than nothing. It’s a database of voters which,in my experience, is rarely well maintained. - Veritas - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:02 pm: Tom, Completely agree. - Skeeter - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:06 pm: The real news here is the Kirk matter. A lot of people thought that Kirk would be safe, but that is pretty clearly not the case. It is looking more and more like Cong. Bean is safe, and as a result, dollars and workers may be diverted to help Seals. There will definitely be a major GOTV effort there and even though the seat has been held by a Republican for a while, it is an obvious target for the Dems. This is looking more and more like a realignment race in Illinois, with that district, C6 and C8 all going Dem and likely to stay that way for a while. - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:10 pm: Pat Collins: I really hope you are kidding about adult stem cells. There is no doubt the scientific community that the breakthrough does not lie in adult stem cells. That is like arguing against global warming. The more he talks about his position, which is against stem cell research funding, not just publically but privately as well, the more it helps Duckworth and the more extreme and out of touch it makes Roskam look. - Todd Castro(ger) aka Wumpus - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:21 pm: Skeet, why are you attacking Kirk’s service in the military? How dare you! - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:38 pm: The last poll numbers I saw had Cong. Denny Hastert’s challenger closing in on him, with Hastert’sre-elect numbers only at 55%, thanks to the Hastert Highway scandal. If that isn’t a bellweather, I do not know what is. It’s important to understand the basic “CYA” strategy of any major political party to put these poll numbers in perspective. Incumbent Republicans are in jeopardy all over the country, and keeping those members in jobs will be the RNC’s top priority. Next will be holding onto open seats that were held by Republicans. Then, going after open seats vacated by Democrats. Finally, going after Democratic incumbents. If anyone thinks the Republicans are going to make a hard run at Melissa Bean, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Expect them to be over-protective of Mark Kirk and Hastert. And if I were Peter Roskam, I’d be very nervous. - Robbie - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:38 pm: Rich, have you heard anything about the 17th? For an open seat race I really thought it would garner more attention. I remember a few weeks ago there was the thread about both the candidates websites, which both suck, but I haven’t seen much online about them. I keep hearing about Tammy Duckworth, and I feel like the rest of the state isn’t getting much press. - Skeeter - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:46 pm: C17 is not getting any press because there are no indications it will be competitive. - Bill Baar - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:56 pm: ditto on the 17th… I’ve seen little. - Ashur Odishoo - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 1:59 pm: With the littany of corruption stories on the state, county (Cook), and city (Chicago) level dominating the news, I think this election can pivot on a dime depending on how well the messages are crafted. Topinka has not started shooting yet, and it remains to see how effective she will be. What is certain is all the money in the world can’t buy Blago any integrity or credibility. Up until now, the only effect of Blago’s money is the ability to raise Topinka’s negatives. My point is that I don’t think the national news and Iraq will have any impact on the gubernatorial race, maybe just the Congressional races. And if YDD doesn’t think Bean is in serious trouble, I also have a bridge to sell him. Ashur Odishoo Candidate State Representative 11th District - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:34 pm: There has been so many media stories about the upcoming Democratic blow-out in November, there seems to have been a saturation point reached and the blow-out scenario has taken mythical proportions of truth. There is reason to question this myth based on election results this week. The blow-out believers had Lamont beating Lieberman by at least 10. That was a very good call and very reasonable until election night. If anti-war candidates barely edges out a classic pro-war incumbant by less than 2% in a state with a 90% disapproval rating for Bush in a Democratic primary, Lamont had a bigger surprise than Lieberman. Lamont should have won by double digits. His weak win is a warning sign for those who care. Worst for Democrats, Connecticut has become the One to Watch. International crisis is steering this election. Now we are seeing another 9/11 terrorist plot. We will be seeing Saddam Hussein being sentenced, continuing 24 hour coverage of Israeli citizens dying at home, and a growing international nuclear deadline being fought by Iran. How is this going to convince voters to support a party favoring a disengagement? Finally Illinois - It is possible that the anti-war furvor has peaked. Yet it is unlikely that the anti-incumbant mood has peaked. We have seen anti-incumbant moods before, and they don’t pan out as promised. Voters are anti-incumbant except for their own incumbant. All this doomsday prophecy has energized the Republicans. Dennis Hastert’s office can be lost if nothing is done. So the fight is on at a time when there seems to be a drowsy confidence coming from Dems. Illinois Democrats will have to explain Lamont to questioning voters, and survive the intraparty warfare over Middle East policy. 60% of voters want the Iraq war to end, but only 27% favor what the Democratic Party is peddling. We will be hearing more about that 30% anti-war vote in the next two months. I believe it has peaked. Bottom line: it is very realistic to believe the Democrats have peaked too soon. - Goodbye Napoleon - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:37 pm: I think any poll taken prior to yesterday’s major news story are worthless now. The terror plot was such a huge deal it is bound to impact some of the trends we’ve seen. Kirk may be vulnerable not because of an anti-GOP feeling, but more of an anti-incumbent sentiment. Bean should be fine and her early TV buy from the US Chamber will help secure her early. Roskam is in trouble. I predict that the anti-incumbent feeling will fade as a result of yesterday’s reminder that the terrorists are still out there. If Iraq takes front-page again in September and October, then the anti-GOP tide will reach these heights again, but I think fresh polling next week will show a slightly different picture. GN - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:50 pm: VanillaMan - I think what you are failing to read in almost all polls is that people are sick of what is going on. I think we saw in the past two elections many buying into the “its getting better” claim by the Republican party but as more and more things go down hill in the world and at home, people are starting to say enough is enough. That is why there are strong anti-incumbent sentiment and we see that the same arguments that have worked for the past two elections for Republicans are not working. Im not prediciting anything but its hard not to like where the Dems are positioned. - Uncle Slappy - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:52 pm: I think it’s a broadening trend that as home prices have skyrocketed, Chicago-area Democrats have moved further from Chicago and into previously “safe” Republican areas, in search of more bang for their housing buck. Will County-Plaintfield being a prime example. The demographics, they are a-changin’! That said, I read a lot of stereotypical remarks in the main post which I don’t think apply to the majority of Illinois GOP’ers, such as support of the so-called Patriot Act. Perhaps they may reflect the views of the more vocal and politically active ones, but not of the “moderate” majority. - Skeeter - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:55 pm: Wumpus said: “Skeet, why are you attacking Kirk’s service in the military? How dare you!” Actually, I made no such allegation. When somebody says that Cong. Kirk is witless fool who will do whatever his bosses Delay and Hastert tell him to do, then you can make that charge. Until then, your comments make you look like a half-bright child unable to see the difference between attacking someone as wrong on the issues as opposed to attacking someone as unable to think independently. - Bubs - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 2:58 pm: David Brooks wrote a good piece this week on the Connecticut Senate primary. The premise is that Lamont’s win, and now Lieberman’s independent run, are more signs that party definitions in this country are rapidly shifting. Brooks argues that there effectively are now three parties, the hard Left Democrats, the hard right Republicans, and what he called the emerging “McCain-Lieberman Party” (of which I would humbly count myself as a Fellow Traveler.) Comparisons with Israel’s new “third party” are obvious, and probably where Brooks got the idea. Without doubt, the politics of America are entering a new state of flux, with the approaching end of Era of Reagan, and its rise to dominance of a conservative GOP. The problem is that the conservative GOP leadership, and conservative activists, are stuck in the past, and still want to throw “Reaganaut” candidates at the voters. In the 6th and 8th CD, the GOP is pitting male Reaganaut conservatives against female opponents that are portraying (note that verb, readers!) themselves as “centrists.” The GOP may win in 6, solely on voter registration, but it AIN’T looking easy at all in 8, which is a loud wake up call, as McSweeney is well financed - it’s the message. Moderates like Mark Kirk SHOULD be fine, albeit with some turbulence before landing. But only time will tell. We are entering a new era, as yet undefined. Evolve or turn extinct, GOP. The voting public has about had it with the arch-conservative mantras. - Pat Collins - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:03 pm: Pat Collins: I really hope you are kidding about adult stem cells. There is no doubt the scientific community that the breakthrough does not lie in adult stem cells. That is like arguing against global warming. Nope, I am serious. The key to global warming is: what is the cause? Is it different than, say, they year 800 when Greenland was Green? As for cells, there are 72 therapies where people benefit from adult OR baby cord stem cells.(which, of course, you need a live baby for) Does Embroiyc have promise? Yes. Does it cause tumors in animals and rejection in patients? It does currently. Olfactory cells from your own nose are showing promise in paralysis cases. The FDA has 500 ACTIVE programs using adult/stem cord cells NOW. They have ZERO using embroyic. Why fund what is not promising NOW and starve the research that IS promising NOW?? That is a real political question, and Duckworth etc ought to be made to debate it. - Ron - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:05 pm: I agree with Skeeter in that Kirk will have a race on his hands, I don’t see the 6th being a long term democratic hold if Duckworth wins though, a vote for her won’t be a vote for Democrats, it’ll be a message vote to Republicans. - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:14 pm: Embryonic stem cell research is “thought to have much greater developmental potential than adult stem cells,” according to the National Institutes of Health. Politically the last thing Roskam wants is to keep stem cell in the spotlight. This is a bad issue for him where he is well out of the mainstream, even in a right leaning district like the 6th. - Angie - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:37 pm: I think support for the GOP has a lot to do with where one lives. Low-crime area voters are more likely to support the GOP, because they’re least likely to note the violence in the inner city area and attribute the crime to Republican policies (female here, but live on the edge of a GOP stronghold, DuPage County). Also, were Illinois in better fiscal shape (as in NOT under Blago’s leadership), it would probably give the GOP a boost in Illinois. That’s why Rod the schmoe just needs to go.;-) - Big Mike - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:46 pm: ANGIE I agree how you vote has much to do with where one lives but if you really think the reason urban voters mainly vote D is because of crime then I got that same bridge Ashur Odishoo was trying to sell for you. - Honest Abe - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:54 pm: The paper on which those poll results were printed may be used to line the kitchen garbage can tomorrow. With terrorism rearing its ugly head again, the Democrats look weak on defense again. Is there anyone who believes that Ned Lamont would have beaten Joe Lieberman if the Connecticut primary took place after the London airline terror suspects were arrested? If security and national defense issues come into play this November, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid remain on the back benches. By the way, if things are so terrific, why is Rahm Emanuel stepping down as the leader of the House Democratic Campaign Committee? - Bob Choda - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:54 pm: I think congressional polls are worthless when done on a large scale. Everybody wants a change in Congress, except when it comes their representative. This, in addition to the power of incumbency, is why 90%+ are re-elected each year. - Skeeter - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 3:59 pm: Could someone please enlighten me on this “weak on defense” idea? It was my understanding that THE TALIBAN were involved in the 9/11 attacks, and not Saddam. It is my understanding further that THE REPUBLICANS are pulling American troops out of Afghanistan and THE TALIBAN are returning to southern Afghanistan in force. How does the failure of the B-Team by cutting and running in Afghanistan cause the Democrats to look weak? - HANKSTER - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 4:03 pm: HONEST ABE: First, Rahm is stepping down after the election, its failry common for members to serve once, not a trace of a story there. Second, I know you Republicans love a good terrorism threat because fear is your only shot they have at winning but people have grown tired of that. Look at polls across the board, the same talking points used by Republicans are not working. Look at the small divide among who people think are better on national security, look at what are the most important issues people care about. This threat in August that the British ended will have no positive effect for Republcians come November. - Todd Castro(ger) aka Wumpus - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 5:45 pm: Wow Skeet, pot or kettle? - bored now - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 5:46 pm: veritas, not only have i worked with voter vault but i used it extensively in my field programs. this was not in illinois (last time i used it: missouri, south dakota, minnesota, georgia). however, what kind of information is in voter vault depends on where you live. states and districts without competitive races and who’s local gop or candidates have not added to it are unlikely to realize its full potential. i’d be interested in knowing where you used it though… - Angie - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 8:33 pm: Big Mike is right. I left out a lot of reasons why urban dwellers are D voters. The lousy Chicago Public School edumacations that some of them are getting might have even more to do with it! - Charles Martel - Friday, Aug 11, 06 @ 8:54 pm: I’m waiting for Roskam to call Duckworth a “Defeat o crat”. Remember, when she was chasing terrorists, he was chasing ambulances. - Azzurra - Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 2:31 pm: Buon luogo, congratulazioni, il mio amico! Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.