Whitney - single Digit% - Third Party voters always oversleep on election day, but wear ‘Don’t Blame Me . . .’ buttons for weeks after. Sorry Rich Whitney, you seem like a solid guy; pick a side.
Wow, I was ahead of my time. People used to mock me when I wrote that Whitney would get 7 1/2% to 10% or more. Now it’s the conventional wisdom.
Part of me says the situation is too volatile to guess. But part of me see upper limits on how much of the vote RB and JBT get. I don’t see Blagojevich breaking 45%. Topinka will be lucky to stay above 40%. Whitney would seem to be on track for 13% for just being on the ballot. If the media actually covered him and his campaign he’d be good for 16-19%, maybe more.
Polling suggests Whitney’s strongest region will be the suburbs, educated people who are suspicious of the major parties.
I’d like to see Tony LaRussa go to the series, but Detroit is gonna win.
- just watching - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 12:13 pm:
Whitney pulls 9 to 10 % - Cards clinch tonight 6 to 3. In an unprecedented move FOX pulls the airing of the World Series due to the lack of of a team from either coast and viewers are forced to watch the games on FX
Whitney is going to be this year’s political sleeper. He is going to astound the political pundits when he pulls 20% of the vote. Not since Ross Pirot will there have been such a ground swell effort to show the voter’s displeasure with the two main Party’s candidates.
Unless somebody can link Whitney with some major scandal or corruption, this boy is going to be playing the role of “The Spoiler”.
Much like in that movie “Network” made years ago, the voters are going to show that “We are mad as hell and we aren’t going to take it anymore!” Mark my words, 20%!!!! Both Democrats and Republicans aren’t enamored with the “Rod and Judy Show” that many feel has been shoved down their throats. Both Dems and GOP will cast their vote for Rich Whitney who they view as “at least he is an honest politician”.
A Glengarif Group poll taken only a few days ago shows that Rich Whitney’s support is divided EQUALLY between Republicans and Democrats, with most votes coming from Independents. How’s that spoiling?
What did Jerry Kohn poll before the election? How do you figure he was supposed to get double digits? Whitney’s already at 9% in two consecutive polls. I can only see his support rise. He will absolutely break double digits, and with the right conditions, pull off a November surprise.
Whitney 9% and if the other two implode which is a good bet Whitney gets 15% which is a good respectable number for a guy with no money!
Blago wins but not by a landslide, alot of Down state will stay home in protest but the blind and deaf Dems will put a soon to be Convict in office because they have no shame……
GOP will need to look hard at them selves to find a creditable/likable Candidate for next election!
Mets win 5-3 Sorry Cards, just trying to be realistic……but I hope not–Go Cards!
I predict that Whitney’s numbers will continue to grow up to the WTTW candidate forum on Oct. 26 — when a larger group of voters will get their first look at Whitney. Then his numbers will be skyrocket. So before the forum, he could reach as high as 15%, after the forum, I’d guess 20%. The question is, in that week between the forum and the election, how quickly will word of Whitney spread. He could gain another 5% by word of mouth/media coverage in that time.
I’ll say conservatively 25% on election day. If Whitney gets good endorsements/press, we could see it go higher. Who knows, they might have to paint the governor’s mansion green!
BTW, Whitney just got the glowing endorsement of State School News Service and got a perfect report card from A+ Illinois. There should be no question about which candidate is better for education.
THANK YOU RICH FOR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGING THE CARDINALS!!!
First of all you must realize that Carpenter is pitching. Therefore the Pond Scum sucking Mets will be lucky to get 3 runs.
Albert is heating up.
Prediction Cards 5 Mets 2
You must also realize that the Cardinals were given up for dead in the last week of the season. “The greatest collapse since 1964 Phillies” Gene Mauch references were flying around. Cub fans in these parts were rejoicing over the demise of the Cardinals.
Fast forward a couple of weeks and the “underdog” Cardinals are on the verge of the World Series!!
Tony LaRussa is licking his chops to go back and have the possibility of Chris Duncan as his DH.
The Cardinals will revenge the loss of ‘68.
BTW Whitney will be lucky to get5%.
- Pat Quinn For Governor - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:41 pm:
TJ, I would say Whitney is different from Nader in this case because you don’t have the Dem hyenas baying (okay, yipping?) about the coming of fascism under Topinka.
Therefore, more people are likely to vote Whitney.
I really don’t know what Whitney will end up with- if, as the neo-class econs say, ceterus perebus, then 6% with arm twisting and people flaking and not going to vote. Oh, and good Dem precinct captains stealing votes. Almost forgot that (how could I forget that?)
However, our campaign is picking up steam and the sit’n is fluid, so MV’s analysis could be accurate.
- Daniel Simpson Day - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:28 pm:
If this was the gameshow “The Price is Right” I would say $1.
(It is not … although “The Price is Right” would be a cool FBI code name for the next indictment-yielding Blagojevich investigation)
Greens won’t get above 6%. People won’t throw their vote away in double-digit numbers.
Whitney 34%, easy
Blapinkavitch will catfight for what’s left if they aren’t indicted first
Mets 5, Cards ZIP
GO GREENS!!
- DuPage Republican For Whitney! - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:38 pm:
Seeing that the Chicago Trib is finally including Whitney’s position right up against the other two, educated voters just may contribute to a historic upset in Illinois. Everyone I talk to claims they are giving it serious thought if only they could learn more about him. Now that the media is giving him some attention who knows what can happen. Also the Rezko factor may play into this..if he fails to show up it too will make the educated wonder what really has transpired behind closed doors and under the table.
- ADemocratsinceKennedyturnedGREEN - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:06 pm:
Hello.
I would venture that Whitney will get a minimum of 10 percent, and perhaps as high as 30. But the more important consideration is that a large percentage of those voters , who will come to Whitney because he is “not one of the above” will like what they see and stay with the Greens for future elections. And that could end up changing things considerably.
“People won’t throw their vote away in double-digit numbers.”
Ha, that’s hysterical, considering that people do it in every single Election Day. Name one Election Day where every candidate who had no chance of winning got less than 10% of the vote.
Someone mentioned Kohn in comparison to Whitney, but that race is not comparable, because while Keyes was disliked by many, Barack Obama was very well liked. In this race, the Topinka and Blagojevich both have high negatives. So while die-hard conservatives stuck by Keyes and moderates floated over to Obama in ‘04, this time around conservatives, liberals and moderates are finding themselves unhappy with their choices among the two major parties.
- John Lee Pettimore - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:00 am:
Whitney: 11%
Mets beat Cards 4-2
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:04 am:
Whitney 9%. New York Mets 5, St. Louis 3.
- leigh - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:10 am:
I may look a fool but I think Whitney may pull of 15%. I am shocked at the people that are planning on voting for him. Cards 5-2
- Not Green - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:22 am:
I think Whitney will break into double digits but just barely, not over 11%. Cards win 5-4.
- Wumpus - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:23 am:
Whitney 12%
Mets v Cards Rain
- Sango Dem - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:23 am:
Over 8% under 13%. He’ll break 20% in Sangamon and Champaign counties.
Cards 4, Mets 1
- joking, right? - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:25 am:
Just enough to keep Hairdo in office/jail.
- schroedk - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:26 am:
Whitney at 12%, primarily a protest vote. Wouldn’t surprise me if he went higher, though. And the Cards smell it; Cards over Mets 4-2.
- Gammons - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:27 am:
Whitney 12%….Mets win tonight 6-4, and again in Game 7…8-2.
- Pat Hickey - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:28 am:
Whitney - single Digit% - Third Party voters always oversleep on election day, but wear ‘Don’t Blame Me . . .’ buttons for weeks after. Sorry Rich Whitney, you seem like a solid guy; pick a side.
Mets over Cards by 4 runs
- Jechislo - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:29 am:
Whitney, just over 11%. JBT 45%, Rod 44%.
St Louis over the Mets 2-1.
- Garp - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:34 am:
Whitney 17%
Cards in six
- Ken in Aurora - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:52 am:
Where’s Squid?
- Bluefish - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:57 am:
I put the o/u for Whitney at 18% and put my money on over. He is the “none of the above” vote.
Cards 3-1. MLB and Fox freak out over ratings with two small market teams in WS.
- no green...cardinal red - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:01 am:
over 6 under 11…. I don’t buy the hype
Cards clinch 3-1
- Jaded - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:11 am:
Whitney 9%.
Perez had his miracle last outing. Carpenter pitches the Cards to a 6-2 win and the pennant.
- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:13 am:
I’m with Garp at 17… there are a lot of disgusted people out there.
- anon - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:14 am:
green 20%
blago 38%
jbt 42%
cards 7
mets 4
- chinman - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:22 am:
blago 45%
jbt 41%
whitney 14%
cards (5 1/2 - 6 1/2)
how could I do better than the book.
handicapping and asking the score for the game are not the same thing in baseball.
the score will be low the o/u is only 8.5
i will say cards win 5-4.
- chinman - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:31 am:
however,
my question of the day is
Where’s Tony!
- Judy, Judy, Judy - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:46 am:
Wow - excitement in the I’m sick of both of them camps just keeps building.
Over 10%, under 17% with Blago beating out JBT
- Squideshi - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:50 am:
Over 30% under 35% with the plurality.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:53 am:
Wow, I was ahead of my time. People used to mock me when I wrote that Whitney would get 7 1/2% to 10% or more. Now it’s the conventional wisdom.
Part of me says the situation is too volatile to guess. But part of me see upper limits on how much of the vote RB and JBT get. I don’t see Blagojevich breaking 45%. Topinka will be lucky to stay above 40%. Whitney would seem to be on track for 13% for just being on the ballot. If the media actually covered him and his campaign he’d be good for 16-19%, maybe more.
Polling suggests Whitney’s strongest region will be the suburbs, educated people who are suspicious of the major parties.
I’d like to see Tony LaRussa go to the series, but Detroit is gonna win.
- just watching - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 12:13 pm:
Whitney pulls 9 to 10 % - Cards clinch tonight 6 to 3. In an unprecedented move FOX pulls the airing of the World Series due to the lack of of a team from either coast and viewers are forced to watch the games on FX
- Beowulf - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 12:13 pm:
Whitney is going to be this year’s political sleeper. He is going to astound the political pundits when he pulls 20% of the vote. Not since Ross Pirot will there have been such a ground swell effort to show the voter’s displeasure with the two main Party’s candidates.
Unless somebody can link Whitney with some major scandal or corruption, this boy is going to be playing the role of “The Spoiler”.
Much like in that movie “Network” made years ago, the voters are going to show that “We are mad as hell and we aren’t going to take it anymore!” Mark my words, 20%!!!! Both Democrats and Republicans aren’t enamored with the “Rod and Judy Show” that many feel has been shoved down their throats. Both Dems and GOP will cast their vote for Rich Whitney who they view as “at least he is an honest politician”.
- Squideshi - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
A Glengarif Group poll taken only a few days ago shows that Rich Whitney’s support is divided EQUALLY between Republicans and Democrats, with most votes coming from Independents. How’s that spoiling?
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 12:24 pm:
The Democrats and Republicans spoiled this election when they nominated Blagojevich and Topinka.
- T.J. - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 1:34 pm:
Rich Whitney will not get double digits.
Remember how Jerry Kohn was supposed to?
- sine die - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:07 pm:
Whitney 8%, JBT 47%, AROD 45%
It will be an extra innings election night. Just like tonight as the Cards win 6-5 in 11 innings!
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:11 pm:
What did Jerry Kohn poll before the election? How do you figure he was supposed to get double digits? Whitney’s already at 9% in two consecutive polls. I can only see his support rise. He will absolutely break double digits, and with the right conditions, pull off a November surprise.
- Big W - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:11 pm:
Whitney 9% and if the other two implode which is a good bet Whitney gets 15% which is a good respectable number for a guy with no money!
Blago wins but not by a landslide, alot of Down state will stay home in protest but the blind and deaf Dems will put a soon to be Convict in office because they have no shame……
GOP will need to look hard at them selves to find a creditable/likable Candidate for next election!
Mets win 5-3 Sorry Cards, just trying to be realistic……but I hope not–Go Cards!
- T.J. - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:21 pm:
Nader routinely got about a third what he polled.
- M.V. - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:27 pm:
I predict that Whitney’s numbers will continue to grow up to the WTTW candidate forum on Oct. 26 — when a larger group of voters will get their first look at Whitney. Then his numbers will be skyrocket. So before the forum, he could reach as high as 15%, after the forum, I’d guess 20%. The question is, in that week between the forum and the election, how quickly will word of Whitney spread. He could gain another 5% by word of mouth/media coverage in that time.
I’ll say conservatively 25% on election day. If Whitney gets good endorsements/press, we could see it go higher. Who knows, they might have to paint the governor’s mansion green!
BTW, Whitney just got the glowing endorsement of State School News Service and got a perfect report card from A+ Illinois. There should be no question about which candidate is better for education.
- Anon - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:44 pm:
Whitney 4%
Mets 6-3
- Tom - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 2:47 pm:
Whitney 8%
Cards 4-3 tonight, and FOX execs reach for the nitro.
- BIG R.PH - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:35 pm:
THANK YOU RICH FOR FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGING THE CARDINALS!!!
First of all you must realize that Carpenter is pitching. Therefore the Pond Scum sucking Mets will be lucky to get 3 runs.
Albert is heating up.
Prediction Cards 5 Mets 2
You must also realize that the Cardinals were given up for dead in the last week of the season. “The greatest collapse since 1964 Phillies” Gene Mauch references were flying around. Cub fans in these parts were rejoicing over the demise of the Cardinals.
Fast forward a couple of weeks and the “underdog” Cardinals are on the verge of the World Series!!
Tony LaRussa is licking his chops to go back and have the possibility of Chris Duncan as his DH.
The Cardinals will revenge the loss of ‘68.
BTW Whitney will be lucky to get5%.
- Pat Quinn For Governor - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 3:41 pm:
Whitney 10.5%
JBT 37.5%
Milorod 48.0%
Quinn Writeins 4.0%
Cardinals clinch tonight 3-2; Fox announces they will actually show The Simpsons’ Treehouse of Horror epsiode BEFORE Halloween. What a country!!
- Ben Briscoe - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 4:44 pm:
Exciting analysis, MV.
TJ, I would say Whitney is different from Nader in this case because you don’t have the Dem hyenas baying (okay, yipping?) about the coming of fascism under Topinka.
Therefore, more people are likely to vote Whitney.
I really don’t know what Whitney will end up with- if, as the neo-class econs say, ceterus perebus, then 6% with arm twisting and people flaking and not going to vote. Oh, and good Dem precinct captains stealing votes. Almost forgot that (how could I forget that?)
However, our campaign is picking up steam and the sit’n is fluid, so MV’s analysis could be accurate.
- Daniel Simpson Day - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:28 pm:
If this was the gameshow “The Price is Right” I would say $1.
(It is not … although “The Price is Right” would be a cool FBI code name for the next indictment-yielding Blagojevich investigation)
Greens won’t get above 6%. People won’t throw their vote away in double-digit numbers.
oh … and Mets 5 Cards 2
- GreenieGirl - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 5:48 pm:
Whitney - 19%
If Blago is indicted - 30%
- Alicia Snyder - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:29 pm:
Whitney 34%, easy
Blapinkavitch will catfight for what’s left if they aren’t indicted first
Mets 5, Cards ZIP
GO GREENS!!
- DuPage Republican For Whitney! - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:38 pm:
Seeing that the Chicago Trib is finally including Whitney’s position right up against the other two, educated voters just may contribute to a historic upset in Illinois. Everyone I talk to claims they are giving it serious thought if only they could learn more about him. Now that the media is giving him some attention who knows what can happen. Also the Rezko factor may play into this..if he fails to show up it too will make the educated wonder what really has transpired behind closed doors and under the table.
- ADemocratsinceKennedyturnedGREEN - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:06 pm:
44% WHITNEY
100% Cards
- Citizen A - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:29 pm:
Whitney 6.5% Cards win pennant and LaRusa elected Gov of Illinois as a write in! Blago gets 8 to 10 and Judy gets to try out for the 07 Cards Team.
- the wonderboy - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:44 pm:
Whitney at 5%
Cards win 4-3
- Citizen A - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:15 pm:
Oh! And Blago gets an early parole but must do community service as Cubs manager for the next four years.
- Gary - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 10:09 pm:
Hello.
I would venture that Whitney will get a minimum of 10 percent, and perhaps as high as 30. But the more important consideration is that a large percentage of those voters , who will come to Whitney because he is “not one of the above” will like what they see and stay with the Greens for future elections. And that could end up changing things considerably.
- M.V. - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 12:07 am:
“People won’t throw their vote away in double-digit numbers.”
Ha, that’s hysterical, considering that people do it in every single Election Day. Name one Election Day where every candidate who had no chance of winning got less than 10% of the vote.
Someone mentioned Kohn in comparison to Whitney, but that race is not comparable, because while Keyes was disliked by many, Barack Obama was very well liked. In this race, the Topinka and Blagojevich both have high negatives. So while die-hard conservatives stuck by Keyes and moderates floated over to Obama in ‘04, this time around conservatives, liberals and moderates are finding themselves unhappy with their choices among the two major parties.