New poll has two races much closer than believed
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Constituent Dynamics has some fresh numbers for Illinois congressional races. You will recall that they already polled IL 6, 14 and 19 and came up with a few surprises. These new results are a lot different than commonly believed. Melissa Bean is thought to have a larger lead than this, and Mark Kirk is believed by nobody to be below 50. Still, we’re looking at 1,000 respondents in these (automated) phone polls. Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-16. * Bean-McSweeney, 47-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf] (They didn’t include the third candidate in the race.) * Kirk-Seals, 46-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf]
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Rasmussen: 44-36-9
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Rasmussen did a poll last week before the Rezko indictment which found Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka 49-43-3. Unlike the Tribune, which also polled pre-Rezko, Rasmussen realized that his numbers were no good and did the responsible thing by going back into the field. The new poll is up (although it’s still behind a subscriber firewall) and Blagojevich leads Topinka and Whitney 44-36-9. Five percent say “other” and 6 percent say they’re unsure. Real Clear has the guv at 45, but I have the crosstabs and it’s 44. Here’s the most interesting aspect of the poll. 24 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Blagojevich, while 22 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Topinka. Nobody said they were certain Whitney voters.
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“Ricky, get off my Trans Am!” *** Updated x1 ***
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Finally, a candidate for Illinois governor I can believe in… He won’t jump into bed with the special interests or organized crime… Your hero and mine… With a running mate who believes in the power of facial hair… Heck, even Honest Abe is backing Tim Nieukirk for governor of Illinois… How could you possibly not vote for a guy who puts John L. Lewis on his MySpace page? Hey, Henry, are you out there? Maybe AFSCME can finally endorse somebody in this race.
Illinois, I think it’s time to “Get Nieuked.” ![]() ![]() [And, by the way, if you do nothing else today, watch those first two videos. Brilliant.] *** UPDATE *** Oh, my goodness. They really have filed the paperwork.
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Peraica’s new TV ad
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller I had heard that Tony Peraica’s new television ad was powerful. Illiterate voters might have a tough time with it, but other than that, tell us what you think And if you’re wondering when Stroger will begin airing TV ads, Carol Marin provided us with this tidbit today: …Stroger last week reportedly told a roomful of North Side Democratic committeemen that he’s running out of money, only has about $400,000 on hand, and needs at least $200,000 more to launch some TV ads in the final week before the election… ![]()
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller What’s your over-under on Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney’s final vote percentage? Bonus Question: Handicap tonight’s Cardinals vs. Mets game.
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Words
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Judy Baar Topinka says what she’s thinking, for good or ill. Here’s what she told the Daily Herald this week:
And this is what she told the Sun-Times:
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Phony attack
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Alexi Giannoulias has apparently just graduated from the Rod Blagojevich School of Making Stuff Up. Democratic state treasurer candidate Alexi Giannoulias branded Christine Radogno a “Republican right-wing extremist” Tuesday as the GOP nominee continued blasting loans his family bank has made to convicted felons. […] I’ve covered Sen. Radogno for years and she is no “right-wing extremist.” Giannoulias’ credibility was already severely damaged in my eyes, but it’s just about gone now.
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Cash-strapped Duckworth gets Trib nod, airs Obama ad *** Updated x1 ***
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Nobody has yet explained why Duckworth has found herself in such a cash crunch, but today’s Tribune endorsement ought to help raise a few bucks.
The Sun-Times has more on the cash crunch and her new TV ad. Just days after filing a report showing her Democratic congressional campaign short of funds, Duckworth plans to begin airing television commercials today featuring U.S. Sen. Barack Obama singing her praises and dubbing her Republican opponent’s ad less than totally honest. The national Dems began running their TV ad yesterday that blasts Roskam as a book banner. The Tuesday ad against Roskam features a woman billed as “Mary Kay Doyle, retired teacher,†chastising Roskam for favoring book bans. *** UPDATE *** Here’s the Obama ad: And here’s the DCCC ad attacking Roskam. ![]()
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Morning shorts
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Stroger aide quits campaign after arrest * Marin: That doesn’t mean [Mike Quigley is] happy with the way this campaign is going. Quigley says Stroger is like “Bambi in the land of Godzillas. I think Todd’s tried harder as time went on when he saw he could lose, but fire in the belly? I think he’s still going through the paces for Dad. It’s extraordinarily sad to watch this.” * Sun-Times: Mayor Daley’s decision to pursue the privatization of Midway Airport is paying dividends for his chief fund-raiser in the black community. * State worker in trouble for allegedly campaigning on state time: In 2003, Shalabi got his job by the same method that brought in other politically connected candidates hired during the Blagojevich administration. He was hired to work in a county where there was a job opening, but then he was allowed to transfer to work closer to home. State records show that he was hired to work in Boone County, nearly 100 miles from his Lemont home, before he was transferred to Cook County in February 2004. * Lieutenant governor seeks hearing on ComEd exec compensation * Sims asks governor for clemency * Lipinski faces perennial candidate in 3rd district * Southtown: Gary Smith, 17, backed Blagojevich after conferring with his father. “He said he didn’t like Judy Baar Topinka, he liked Blagojevich. He said Blagojevich was for the people and Topinka could be, but she’s for herself now. So I voted for Blagojevich. He cares for the people, I can tell he does.” * Sweeny: Chicagoans are no strangers to scandals, but that doesn’t mean they like them * Kadner: Green Party’s Whitney gets attention of voters * Saluki Express makes its first run
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US Rep. Jackson complains about Blagojevich
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Congressman Jackson has some harsh words about Gov. Blagojevich. U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a probable candidate for Chicago mayor who has blasted contracting and hiring scandals at City Hall, complained today about alleged corruption surrounding the office of Gov. Rod Blagojevich. That’s an interesting argument. He’s not so much complaining about the corruption itself as the impact the corruption has on the rest of the ticket - and to “democracy” in general. Whatever the case, it’ll give y’all something to talk about tonight.
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What the… ? *** Updated x2 ***
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Today’s Tribune endorsement editorial, entitled “How to liberate Cook County,” started out predictably enough. Years of hard work by anti-machine reformers have led to this moment: the chance for a new president of the 17-member Cook County Board–plus a majority of at least nine steady votes for slashing bloat and improving services. The Tribune, which recently discovered that clout played a major role in the 2003 aldermanic election, details a litany of nasty politics by those bad ol’ county board members and even refuses to endorse either candidate in some races. And then we come to this paragraph: 11th District (South and Southwest Sides, southwest suburbs): This page has argued that incumbent Democrat John Daley has the knowledge and political skills to help engineer a radical overhaul and downsizing of county government. Daley’s familiarity with county finances brings with it a responsibility to be a dynamic force for reform. He is endorsed over Republican political consultant Carl Segvich. What do you think? Did the Tribsters completely wimp out or do you think they actually believe that John Daley - the brother of the mayor - is a potential anti-machine reformer? *** UPDATE *** Speaking of goofy newspaper editorials, remember the Northwest Herald’s strange endorsement of Pat Quinn because the paper mistakenly believed the LG was elected separately and Quinn could work with either a Repub or a Dem governor? Well, it wasn’t just the NW Herald. Other papers in the chain also ran the editorial before somebody figured out the oopsie and pulled it offline. I try not to nitpick because everybody makes mistakes. Stuff happens. But these are endorsements, so the bar is set much higher. Endorsements are supposedly thoroughly debated and carefully considered within the institution before publication. These are not stories written under impossible deadlines or unimportant blurbs that nobody cares about. Anyway, I was browsing through the NW Herald’s other endorsements today when I noticed this line in the paper’s glowing support for Dan Rutherford: Rutherford served 20 years in the House Um… actually, Rutherford served just ten years in the House. The NW Herald’s endorsement editorial which claimed Topinka has no property tax relief plan also caught my eye. You may not like Topinka’s property tax relief plan, you might think it doesn’t go far enough, you may not think it’ll work as promised, you may even despise her proposed funding source, but she does, in fact, have one. *** UPDATE 2 *** [Sigh.] I hate to keep at this, but I don’t think the SoS office has 37,000 employees, as claimed in the NW Herald’s Rutherford endorsement. Not even close. The real headcount is about 3,800.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY, Part 2 - Canvass results; Wintermute-Holmes; New & harsh TV ad in Granberg-Cavaletto
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Schock-Spears; Smith-Dagit; Link-Shields; Glengariff poll results; Axley-Kotowski; IFT radio ads; Gordon-Briscoe; Roth-Noland; Sullivan-Howland; Hospitals; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day *** Updated x1 ***
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Let’s assume (probably correctly) that Judy Baar Topinka doesn’t have the money to air both positive and negative ads at the same time. Faced with this cash dilemma, if you were her would you continue airing negative ads or switch to purely positives? Explain your reasoning. Bonus question: Will hiring Lou Piniella make any difference at all for the Cubs or should the owners resign? By the way, the Glengariff Group also polled Illinoisans on the Cubs” The Chicago Cubs *** UPDATE *** Gov. Blagojevich’s campaign has a new super-positive ad. “According to my opponent,” the guv says up front, “I’m the worst person on earth and the world is coming to an end. Come one. Let’s get real.” ![]()
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Duckworth low on cash, but Dems starting negative ads *** Updated x1 ***
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Tammy Duckworth is no longer running TV ads and is running out of money. After filling the airwaves with television commercials, Democrat Tammy Duckworth is heading into the crucial final weeks of the west suburban 6th Congressional District contest with a severely depleted campaign war chest. The Daily Herald story ponders whether Duckworth may have peaked too soon, but adds this nugget (albeit buried) that the Sun-Times missed. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which reserved $2.3 million to run ads blasting Roskam, starts airing its first ad today. Also, Andrew Sullivan writes that this NRCC ad is “all-but racist.” Notice the visual contrast between the alleged illegals and the white family who will have to “foot the bill” for them. Lovely. But effective. [Hat tip to a commenter] *** UPDATE *** Roskam’s own ad on immigration/Social Security/etc. is below. ![]()
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Glengariff Group, treasurer’s race: 33-29-8
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller More numbers. In the race for state treasurer, the poll shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican state Sen. Christine Radogno 33 percent to 29 percent but that is within the 4 percentage point statistical margin of error. Green Party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff polled 8 percent. […] I’ll post some trends on this a little later this morning.
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Glengariff Group: 39-30-9 and 20 undecided
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Subscribers had these results yesterday and will get the full results this morning. AP: A new poll since a close adviser to Gov. Rod Blagojevich was indicted shows the incumbent Democrat with a 9 percentage point lead over his closest challenger, Republican Judy Baar Topinka, according to results released Monday. Discuss.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - NEW POST-INDICTMENT POLLING DATA (Use all caps in password) *** Update - Use TUESDAY’S password ***
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Boland; Schock; Spears radio ad; Smith radio ad; Holmes attack mailer; Axley-Kotowski; Cahnman radio ads; Roth-Noland; Special Session; Early Voting; Madigan-Radogno; Target feed (Use all caps in password)
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Assume it’s the first 100 days of a Pat Quinn administration. What happens?
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Seals goes up *** Updated x1 ***
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The piece doesn’t say how big this ad buy is, but it is running on network TV. Democrat Dan Seals will begin airing a television ad Monday tying Republican Rep. Mark Kirk’s votes in Congress to support President Bush. The full ad can be seen here. Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has endorsed both Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth. Watch it and discuss. *** UPDATE *** Animal Farm has the fundraising numbers: 6th District: Republican Peter Roskam raised $570,000 for a total of $2.36 million so far, with $1.5 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrat Tammy Duckworth raised $949,000 for a total of $2.8 million so far, but had only $206,000 left as of Sept. 30. That probably explains why Duckworth went off broadcast TV recently.
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Tribune poll: Stroger-Peraica 39-36
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The key here is that even though the two are essentially tied, 14 percent of African-Americans are still undecided. With those votes and if the machine kicks in hard, this is not a tie race. Still, Stroger is way under 50 and lots of people have to be nervous. Stroger leads Peraica 39 percent to 36 percent in the survey, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points. The poll of 481 likely Cook County voters was conducted Oct. 8-11. […] As usual, the Tribune hasn’t posted any crosstabs or polling details beyond what’s in the article. Meanwhile, the Trib endorsed Peraica today. And the Daily Southtown’s Phil Kadner let loose on Todd Stroger. In fact, during an editorial board interview with the Daily Southtown on Friday, young Stroger, the son of former Cook County Board President John Stroger, seemed so lacking in knowledge that I had to wonder why he is even running for the office. * The Tribune claims that its poll’s margin of error is 5 percent, but it’s actually slightly less than 4.5 percent. Isn’t it at least a little odd that the Trib would undercut its own poll by claiming a higher MoE than it really has and, in the process, make the race look slightly closer?
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Rezko roundup
Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Greg Hinz makes a very good point in this week’s column.
My syndicated column lays out our options. 1) Blagojevich knows about the corruption and is a very good liar; 2) The governor isn’t curious enough to delve deeper than a headline and seriously question his friends; 3) He is utterly incapable of trusting any information that contradicts his own beliefs; or 4) U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is completely wrong, even though he has yet to lose a corruption case. The Tribune editorial board weighed in yesterday. So Blagojevich essentially is channeling George Ryan: In case of crime spree, I knew nothing. The problem with this, three weeks shy of an election, is that it forces voters to ask unpleasant questions: Is my governor clueless? Or worse? When something as big as the Tony Rezko indictment breaks, reporters will always find a way to keep it in their stories. Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich touted his senior health-care efforts Sunday while Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka accused him of distorting her plans for children’s medical insurance, as both campaigns pondered the effects of recent corruption charges against a top fundraiser for the governor. And here’s something so out of the blue that it might get some coverage and allow the guv to change the subject: The Illinois State Rifle Association has called on Blagojevich to resign. Also, Chuck Goudie tries to connect the Rezko scandal with the House page scandal.
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