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Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Assume it’s the first 100 days of a Pat Quinn administration. What happens?

  87 Comments      


Seals goes up *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The piece doesn’t say how big this ad buy is, but it is running on network TV.

Democrat Dan Seals will begin airing a television ad Monday tying Republican Rep. Mark Kirk’s votes in Congress to support President Bush.

Seals’ ad suggests Kirk’s support of Bush by reeling off several of the president’s plans that Kirk supported — including the war in Iraq.

“We deserve a leader that will stand with us, not with President Bush,” Seals, of Wilmette, says at the end.

In response, Kirk’s spokesman says that he’ll just be focusing on local issues.

The ad will mark the first foray into television in the 10th Congressional District race, though Kirk has been running radio spots for more than a month.

The full ad can be seen here.

Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has endorsed both Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth.

Watch it and discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Animal Farm has the fundraising numbers:

6th District: Republican Peter Roskam raised $570,000 for a total of $2.36 million so far, with $1.5 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrat Tammy Duckworth raised $949,000 for a total of $2.8 million so far, but had only $206,000 left as of Sept. 30. That probably explains why Duckworth went off broadcast TV recently.

*8th District: Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean raised $630,000 for a total of $3.5 million so far, with $324,000 left as of Sept. 30. Republican challenger David McSweeney raised $455,000 for a total of $1.6 million raised so far, with $688,000 left as of Sept. 30. […]

*10th District: Republican Rep. Mark Kirk collected $482,000 for a total of $2.7 million so far, leaving him with $1.6 million on Sept. 30. Democratic challenger Dan Seals raised $474,000 in the third quarter for a total of $1.2 million so far and had $559,000 left as of Sept. 30.

  24 Comments      


Tribune poll: Stroger-Peraica 39-36

Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The key here is that even though the two are essentially tied, 14 percent of African-Americans are still undecided. With those votes and if the machine kicks in hard, this is not a tie race. Still, Stroger is way under 50 and lots of people have to be nervous.

Stroger leads Peraica 39 percent to 36 percent in the survey, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points. The poll of 481 likely Cook County voters was conducted Oct. 8-11. […]

The new poll found that 21 percent of self-described Democrats said they would vote for the Republican. […]

The core support for Peraica, a county commissioner from Riverside, comes from the suburbs, where he holds a 48 percent to 28 percent edge over Stroger. But in the city, Stroger holds a two-to-one advantage over Peraica–50 percent to 25 percent. […]

Asked who would be more likely to reform county government, 31 percent said Peraica, 29 percent said Stroger and 20 percent said neither.

As usual, the Tribune hasn’t posted any crosstabs or polling details beyond what’s in the article.

Meanwhile, the Trib endorsed Peraica today. And the Daily Southtown’s Phil Kadner let loose on Todd Stroger.

In fact, during an editorial board interview with the Daily Southtown on Friday, young Stroger, the son of former Cook County Board President John Stroger, seemed so lacking in knowledge that I had to wonder why he is even running for the office.

* The Tribune claims that its poll’s margin of error is 5 percent, but it’s actually slightly less than 4.5 percent. Isn’t it at least a little odd that the Trib would undercut its own poll by claiming a higher MoE than it really has and, in the process, make the race look slightly closer?

  26 Comments      


Rezko roundup

Monday, Oct 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Greg Hinz makes a very good point in this week’s column.

Since the earliest days of the Blagojevich administration, those who know state government have been warning that Rod Blogojevich apparently missed the central lesson of the George Ryan years: Keep campaign fund-raisers far away from government. […]

If he ever bothered to read anything except the sports page, Rod Blagojevich had enormous reason to keep a close, close eye on his fund-raisers. All he had to do was look at George Ryan and what his friends did.

My syndicated column lays out our options.

1) Blagojevich knows about the corruption and is a very good liar; 2) The governor isn’t curious enough to delve deeper than a headline and seriously question his friends; 3) He is utterly incapable of trusting any information that contradicts his own beliefs; or 4) U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is completely wrong, even though he has yet to lose a corruption case.

The Tribune editorial board weighed in yesterday.

So Blagojevich essentially is channeling George Ryan: In case of crime spree, I knew nothing. The problem with this, three weeks shy of an election, is that it forces voters to ask unpleasant questions: Is my governor clueless? Or worse?

When something as big as the Tony Rezko indictment breaks, reporters will always find a way to keep it in their stories.

Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich touted his senior health-care efforts Sunday while Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka accused him of distorting her plans for children’s medical insurance, as both campaigns pondered the effects of recent corruption charges against a top fundraiser for the governor.

Blagojevich, appearing at a Northwest Side seniors center, said he did not believe his re-election bid would be hampered because his close adviser and fundraiser, Antoin “Tony” Rezko, didn’t show up for arraignment Friday following his indictment on federal charges involving the state’s teacher pension system.

But Topinka said Blagojevich should be concerned about Rezko and the anticipated plea agreement later this month of the man alleged to be Rezko’s co-schemer Stuart Levine.

“I don’t have any Tony Rezkos in my life. We don’t deal with people like that, OK?” Topinka asked. “The fact that we do know that Stu Levine is going to have his plea bargain coming up. … I suspect that that will be very informative.”

And here’s something so out of the blue that it might get some coverage and allow the guv to change the subject: The Illinois State Rifle Association has called on Blagojevich to resign.

Also, Chuck Goudie tries to connect the Rezko scandal with the House page scandal.

  30 Comments      


Blagojevich ‘06, Quinn ‘0? *** Updated x1 ***

Sunday, Oct 15, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Neil Steinberg asks a question that pretty much every insider has been mulling recently.

So when do we start viewing the gubernatorial race as being not so much between Judy Baar Topinka and Gov. Blagojevich as between Topinka and Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, who would take over the job should his boss find it necessary to, ah, spend time elsewhere?

Quinn strikes me as an affable goof, a view formed during his grass-roots consumer and environmental activist days. The sort of do-gooder who usually never gets within spitting distance of public office. He might surprise us. I have a good feeling about Quinn. Wouldn’t it be ironic if both Judy and Rod end up in history’s Dumpster, digging for chicken bones with meat still on them, while Quinn is putting his feet up in the governor’s mansion? Stranger things have happened.

Marie from Disarranging Mine sent me this photo last week, which she snapped somewhere in Springfield. Other people are getting the idea as well.

Meanwhile, the Northwest Herald has endorsed Pat Quinn for reelection. Trouble is, the paper based the endorsement at least partially on the completely false assumption that the lt. governor is elected separately.

Lieutenant governor is an independent office, and we are confident Quinn could work with a Republican or Democratic governor.

Oops.

*** UPDATE *** The meme spreads. Monday’s editorial in the Belleville News-Democrat is entitled “Look beyond Blagojevich.”

Quick, who’s the Illinois lieutenant governor?

A lot of people probably don’t know. But anyone thinking about re-electing Democrat Rod Blagojevich ought to find out.

If for any reason Blagojevich couldn’t finish his term, his lieutenant governor would take over. And as the federal corruption investigation into the Blagojevich administration expands, the idea of Blagojevich being forced out of office increasingly seems a possibility. […]

Blagojevich’s running- mate is Pat Quinn, a politician with a reputation for integrity. He likely would do a fine job as governor.

But do people really want to vote for a candidate who could be on his way out before he’s even in? That’s another question would-be Blagojevich voters need to answer.

And, perhaps reflecting his greater importance in Illinois politics, the Sun-Times put LG Quinn on Monday’s front page.

  68 Comments      


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