Late numbers
Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Chew these over while you’re chewing on your nails waiting for everything to be over.
* The latest polls in the governor’s race:
* 61-39 - Polimetrix, Nov. 5 (800 LV)
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
* All recent blog posts on polls can be found here.
* The Hotline looks back at 1994 to check the generic ballot numbers:
ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)
* The most recent Fox poll has Democrats leading generic ballot by 13. Check out all the recent generic ballot polls here. Five out of the last 8 taken since 11/1 have Dems ahead by more than ten (one at 20).
* But, the Hotline has this from a trusted GOP insider.
The [late Republican] momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).
* Democracy Corps thinks otherwise. Click here for its pdf report of 50-race polling.
This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.
* Oy.
- Way Northsider - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:54 pm:
JBT does not deserve to win and she won’t.
- Lovie's Leather - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:14 pm:
How could you do a poll and not include Whitney?! When he is polling as high as he is, you just waste time and money polling without him. Oy… and what is the deal with the low amounts of numbers used in the polls? 400 isn’t enough. You need 600+.
- Realist - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:34 pm:
Final prediction: Blago by 7
- Bridget Dooley - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:38 pm:
Oy, am I sick of polls. Sheesh!
- the wonderboy - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:38 pm:
Way northsider…wow, that was enlightening.
As for the data, the polimetrix poll seems odd even without Whitney. I haven’t seen anything with Blago near 60% and suddenly he is polling with a 20 point lead, and with a sample of 800? Very odd…
Blago my win, but it will be closer than many are guessing. It would be a truly telling event if he wins with less than a majority…
- ZC - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:42 pm:
Blago is in, Judy is toast. Statewide Democratic sweep.
Main question now is will the performance of the GOP statewide ticket drag down Roskam, McSweeney and Kirk. I’d be liking my odds if I were Tammy Duckworth just now, but my gut (nothing else) tells me that Kirk’s reputation as a moderate Republican will give him a significant, if diminished margin of victory. Republican moderates in Lake County will be stirred to try and save a candidate they perceive as one of their own. Call it the Beth Coulson effect.
- Disgusted - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:04 pm:
I doubt polls because they are paid for by somebody and can be tipped towards that entity, especially if it’s a campaign paying for the poll. I also doubt newspaper polls where the paper is liable to support one party over another continually.
That being said, I’m so tired of this campaign and it’s negativity and rudeness and cockey people thinking they know the mind of every voter.
At this point I don’t care who wins because you can’t tell one candidate from another. They are all alike, egocentric, seeking fame and fortune at the expense of the working people of the state and the country. Most think they are above the law and we’ve witnessed plenty of that in this state and federally.
It’s all pretty depressing and looks like it will continue for years to come. We’ve come a long way from the founding fathers and not for the better.
- NW burbs - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:17 pm:
The GOP “momentum” is a mythical, last-minute, “everything will be just fine” talking point from the Rove/Mehlman/Luntz set.
Polls always tighten up toward Election Day. That would mean Dems could only go down and Repubs could only go up as we got closer to E-Day.
Momentum my foot. By the same token Kerry had “momentum” rolling into 2004. Didn’t do much for him, did it?
–
Lovie’s Leather, take a poll making class. 400 is a valid sample size.
- Reddbyrd - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:44 pm:
Looks like JudyBore is taking down Kirk too. Media is starting to circle Lake County looking for an upset.
Guess that means Mike Bond wins the Senate race — Geo’s revenge. Another feather in the cap of Vandalia Frank!
And we must offer a hat tip to Brickhead’s last radio ads. Thanks for reminding everyone you are still are on the ticket.
One has to wonder if GRod agents infiltrated the AccordionGal’s inner circle to plan these last few moves….I bet “yes”
Finally, can you believe no one has called jRYAN to get his take on this debacle?
“And people thought I ran a stupid campaign,” jRYAN said from some bunker.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:12 pm:
ZC — Some folks up in Lake County are still shaking off the funk from living in Cook County. They can’t bring themselves to vote a straight D ticket, even when it’s the right thing to do.
Reddbyrd — I believe JRyan is providing election-night analysis. I thought it was pretty strange Topinka never had him on the campaign trail. Guess he’s still alittle annoyed with the whole Cellini debt-forgiveness thing.
- HoosierDaddy - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:30 pm:
It’ll be an interesting night. Got my chips (and hedges) down on the ole intrade thingy.
But at 10 p.m. tonite I am shutting down and not doing, reading, or commenting on another political thing (except that I’ll go vote) until 7 p.m. Tuesday.
I’m tired.
- OrangeCrush - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:30 pm:
Seen: Dan Seals at Ogilvie Transportation Center shaking hands w/ commuters rushing to get on the 5:07 pm express train to the North Shore. Sen. Susan Garrett nearby yelling, “Shake Dan Seals’ hand! Give him some good luck!”
Heard: Bill Clinton robo-call for Gov. Rod. Groaan.
- Lovie's Leather - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:40 pm:
a “poll making class”? What in the heck is a poll making class??? Well, I did take a statistics class. And I had a teacher that told me that there were 3 types of lies… “There are lies, damnable lies, and statistics.” We’ll see how this philosophy turns out tomorrow….
- OneMan - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:44 pm:
The 60~40 poll does seem to have a interesting net based survey approach.
As for Judy being a drag on the entire ticket, I think that is more than a bit of a stretch.
- HoosierDaddy - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 7:47 pm:
One Man, what are you talking about? It was a “man in the street” interview taken at O’Hare among travelers wearing Cubs apparel.
- Reddbyrd - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:23 pm:
YYD JudyBore could not use jRYAN casue Levine was his biggest donor….tooo much baggage. Shucks. maybe he can explain that tomorrow
- ArchPundit - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:50 pm:
==The 60~40 poll does seem to have a interesting net based survey approach.
After reading through it more, I don’t think they should have released their horse race numbers. I think once they do Rich and I should at least mention them, but it looks to me like it’s not really meant for forecasting, as much as a pre-post survey to understand the dynamics of the election. I’m guessing their goal isn’t horse race findings, but actually to understand the underlying dynamics.
- Squideshi - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:50 pm:
Not being included in polls is just one of the many types of discrimination that new parties face. I would have liked to see at least one poll that asked voters their preference in a Whitney/Pinka and a Whitney/Blago like they have done Blago/Pinka. I suspect that we would see Whitney winning.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:55 pm:
—-a “poll making classâ€? What in the heck is a poll making class???
It’s called a survey design class and is generally considered to be a methodological class.
You are confusing statistics which are utilized by pollsters to construct a valid and reliable instrument and polling itself. Statistics classes are generally not about polling. Polling classes–aka survey design classes– utilize statistics.
- Angie - Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:53 pm:
Oy but some of us will be k’vetching if Rod is elected again.
That hair has just got to go. Please, if you need something frivolous and silly to help you decide, like if you’re not yet decided–the hair. Oh, not that hairdo again. Gahhhh!
How many women have hair that looks that perfect all the time, at all times, and 24/7 of the time? Mine is long, and I often wear it a wavy mess! And I’m a chick!
No more guys in Aquanet, please (sob). I’m begging, here.
- Real Clear - Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:14 am:
Dems sweep the statewides. Bean wins reelection handily. Predict Roskam wins narrowly, and Kirk survives, despite themselves. Both have been in government too long, and it shows.
GOP gets yet another lesson in what happens when you refuse to clean-up and keep running second-rate candidates.
Dan Rutherford gets a lesson in what happens when you insult seasoned citizens (”at 72, Jesse’s given up on fighting corruption”).
What was Danny Boy thinking? That has to be the most self-destructive ad of the year.