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Two new ads from the Get Nieuked ticket
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Gubernatorial candidate Tim Nieukirk and his able running mate head for the homestretch… And Tim supports this ad… See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here. And you can buy Get Nieuked gear here. 
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY (Part 4) Personal PAC “teams” Republican legislator with Dem candidate on mailer
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY (Part 3) - 13th Ward in Boland race; Chicago issue in Myers-Frerich; Family PAC robocall in Boland-Haring; Money trail
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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New Blagojevich radio ads
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Well, so much for getting out of here this morning so I could meet some of the fellas in Chicago for a long lunch at Gene’s. We have two new radio ads from the Blagojevich campaign. The first is negative… “You know how she’s going to pay for it? Taxing me, taxing you. Taxes, taxes, taxes.” The second is positive… “I’m sticking with the governor. He’ll get things done.” Very authentic sounding ads.
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Breaking… *** Updated x4 ***
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller From the Daily Herald’s Animal Farm:
Duckworth is having a press conference soon. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, this press release was issued a while ago by VoteVets.org.
*** UPDATE *** AP: The endorsement also caught Duckworth by surprise. Flanked by more than 20 veterans at a hastily called press conference, Duckworth said she was never contacted by the organization or asked to fill out a questionnaire, which typically happens when organizations decide who they want to endorse. Something doesn’t look right with this. *** UPDATE 2 *** Curiouser and curiouser. Roskam said the national endorsement was based on the recommendation by a few 6th District VFW leaders. The only one he named was Soden, a former head of the Illinois VFW who was appointed to fill out former Republican Senate President James “Pate†Philip’s term in 2003. *** UPDATE 3 *** How worried are the 6th District Republicans worried about GOP turnout? This way over the top mailer should give you an idea.
*** UPDATE 4 *** From the Roskam campaign:
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Geo; Statehouse construction pics; Abortion; Jones-Wright radio ad; Poe-Cahnman radio spot; Flider-Cain TV ad; Smith-Dagit TV ad; A+ Illinois mail program; Obama mailer; Granberg-Cavaletto mailer; JCAR controversy; ICPR $; Target feed (Use all caps in password)
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Another YouTube star breaks through
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Remember Jake? He’s the 14 year old African-American kid from Lincoln Park I told you about who posted videos on YouTube slamming Gov. Rod Blagojevich because his school textbooks were in such bad shape. Some of you know that he has continued to post videos on a regular basis throughout the campaign, most of them in strong support of Republican candidates. Jake was recently interviewed by Chicago Public Radio. You can listen to the interview by clicking this link. [m4a file] See all of his videos here. Visit his website here.
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Question of the day
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Make sure you scroll way down today for several stories that were uploaded late yesterday and early this morning. We have two new polls, a couple of TV ads, etc. I have to be out of the office much of today, so don’t expect constant updates. Also, for those of you locked in comment moderation, I won’t be able to free your posts from prison until much later. You should’ve played nice is all I can say. Anyway, onto the question. What would you suggest that major media outlets - TV, radio and print - do to improve their campaign coverage?
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VFW commander blasts guv’s veterans care program
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Buried way down in a Copley News Service story entitled “Blagojevich, Topinka trade barbs” is this very important nugget about the governor’s new Veterans Care program that will offer medical services to vets who don’t qualify for federal assistance.
You’d think the Topinka campaign would have publicized this letter last month.
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Negativity *** Updated x1 ***
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller *** UPDATE *** I’ve heard from several people, via calls, e-mail, instant messages and in comments, to now believe that this story about the guv going positive is bogus. Yes, he does have a new positive ad on the air, but he’s still running negative TV ads. CBS2 claims the governor’s campaign has gone positive.
I think they’ve probably still got a negative ad track going, but I’m not yet sure. Anyone out there see any negative spots on morning TV? As could be expected, the governor’s campaign spokesperson denied they were ever running a lot of negative spots to begin with.
Paul Green had this zinger in the CBS2 piece:
The governor had this to say in a different CBS2 story:
And Topinka had a message for voters who are currently parked with the Green Party:
Blagojevich was trying to focus yesterday on the next four years.
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Morning shorts
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller [Please scroll down for stories that were posted late last night and early this morning.] * Tribune: Former Illinois state Supreme Court candidate Gordon Maag’s $110 million defamation lawsuit over a 2004 campaign flier suffered another legal setback Thursday, when an Illinois appellate court on which he once sat tossed out the case. * Tribune editorial: Obama would be wise to explain, fully and quickly, the prelude to a real estate deal and subsequent transactions related to his acquisition of a $1.65 million home on Chicago’s South Side. If Obama doesn’t shine his own spotlight on his real estate relationship with indicted political fundraiser Antoin “Tony” Rezko, he’ll be fielding questions about Rezko in two years and in 20, * Pantagraph editorial: Governor’s secrecy an insult to Illinois citizens * NY Times publishes a story today about Democratic corruption that includes a section on Gov. Blagojevich * Illinois’ pension nightmare - Funds for teachers, state workers face a $45.8 billion shortfall * Daily Herald: Jim Sullivan’s union of highway builders has had enough of the Blagojevich administration. Steve Preckwinkle’s teachers union wants to give the governor another four years to improve education. * Writer defends columns in justice defamation case * Quote of the Week from Gov. Blagojevich: “The Bears are 7-0. That never happened when [George] Ryan was governor. … All across this state, sports fans are better off than they were four years ago.” * Tribune: Democrats were preparing a series of rallies Monday featuring Illinois Sens. Barack Obama and Dick Durbin to promote Duckworth, Bean, 10th Congressional District candidate Dan Seals and Todd Stroger, the candidate for Cook County Board president. Seals is challenging North Shore Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, and Stroger faces Republican rival Tony Peraica. * Hot-button issues on ballot don’t really count * Despite the positive outlook of Gov. Rod Blagojevich and U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, John Laesch foresees an inevitable economic downturn related to U.S. trade agreements. * `All politics is local’ takes on new meaning on the Web * Election campaign lucrative for TV stations
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Rasmussen: 44-37-14
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller It’s still behind a subscriber firewall and there’s no data available yet even to them, but Rasmussen Reports has a new poll in the governor’s race. Gov. Blagojevich leads the pack 44-37-14. Once again, here are all the latest polls:
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Friday fun: I wonder if this idea spreads…
Friday, Nov 3, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller This is a sample ballot distributed by Democratic candidate for Cook County Board Jim Dasakis. Other than the misspelling of one candidate’s name and the rudimentary design, do you notice anything odd? Click for a larger image.
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SurveyUSA: 45-37-14
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally. Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…
I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high. Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.
This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.
Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…
We’re expecting some new ads very soon.
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Latest state treasurer TV ads - both negative
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The two candidates for state treasurer have been arguing back and forth over negative ads. Christine Radogno got the ball rollling with this spot, which, for the first time ever, uses the words of a state party chairman of the opposing party to slam an opponent… And then Alexi Giannoulias came right back at her with this ad, which Radogno has demanded that he pull off the air. Meanwhile, Giannoulias told the Southern Illinoisan that he’s “sick” of the negative ads. “We’re sick of attack ads,†Giannoulias said. “Let’s talk about ideas. People need solutions, and I can tell you that talking about the things my opponent or other people before me have done is not providing a solu-tion.†Not included in the article was a single mention of Giannoulias’ own negative ad.
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Fun with phones
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Clever. A dirty trick that is disguised as simply supplying information for voters.
I asked the Duckworth campaign about this after a comment about the goings-on appeared here at the blog.
Listen to the robocall by clicking here. [wav file] Meanwhile, Laura Bush was in town today for Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.
Also, Roskam just sent out a release promising a “Late breaking special campaign announcement” tomorrow morning.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - “Evil” Chicago; Sierra Club radio ad; Boland-Haring; Abortion fight (Simpson-Bond, Axley-Kotowski, Myers-Frerichs); Parke-Crespo; Flider-Cain; Syverson-Lewandowski; Obama-Lewandowski; Smith-Dagit; Petka; Daniels; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Yet another coinkydink?
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Dan Curry is a blogger, but he also works for the Topinka-Birkett campaign. With that in mind, have a look at his latest entry.
And guess who brought that contract to the State Board of Investments? A company connected to Nick Hurtgen. Go read the whole thing.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Will people cast a protest vote for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who most likely can’t win, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates? Most importantly, what will be Whitney’s final percent?
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Neanderthal comment won’t die
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor’s over the top “defense” of his wife’s business dealings with people connected to state government won’t go away. The guv defended her by attacking critics as “Neanderthals.” The result is the governor’s campaign took a story buried on the same Friday that Stu Levine pled guilty and kept it alive for almost a week by injecting a bogus claim of sexism into the equation. Topinka added more fuel to the fire yesterday.
That’s the very same appearance of conflict that all state employees are warned to avoid. It’s the same conflict that all attorneys, reporters and just about anyone with any common sense avoids. And since Mrs. Blagojevich only did the one deal this year, it shouldn’t be asking too much of her to check to see if there were any potential conflicts of interest. This is the old way of doing business. The very old way. Here’s more from a Southern Illinoisan columnist (I assume it’s Jim Muir, but I didn’t see a name listed).
Meanwhile, the Tribune editorial board is sick of the governor’s attacks on Topinka.
Topinka struck back against some of the attacks yesterday. NBC5:
A Lee Newspapers article, not a column, compared the governor to George Ryan. Gov. Rod Blagojevich appears to have ripped a page from his predecessor’s playbook as he seeks to seal up support for a second term. And Kristen McQueary wonders what’s up with the female vote? Alas, impossible-to-please women voters are to blame for forcing female politicians to downplay their feminine attributes, even though we gossip about them anyway.
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Copley treasurer: 39-33-7, 21 percent undecided
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.
Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:
There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.
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Morning shorts
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Daily Herald: Sort through the charges and counter-charges, however, and what emerges is that none of the four congressional candidates is putting forth a plan that would keep Social Security from going bankrupt after Baby Boomers retire and there aren’t enough workers left to keep the program afloat. * Oy: Voting equipment glitches lingering * And another oy: Early voters finding machines aren’t without faults * Brown: Obama’s dealings with Rezko buy a parcel of questions * Sneed has a bit about those state mailers to families of “newborns” from the governor * St. Amand: “I racked my brain to come up with Dan Hynes as the Democrat and Carole Pankau as the Republican in the comptroller’s race. I knew Alexi Giannoulias was the Democrat running for treasurer, but I couldn’t spell his name. And I drew a blank on Christine Radogno as the Republican candidate.” * Bernie: GOP worried about ‘throwaway’ votes for Whitney * Tridgell: They can’t drive [on Tollway] much faster than 55 * Privatized lottery: The ticket to ride? * Web tactic on foe’s behalf upsets appellate court candidate * Parties thinking small to get votes - Microtargeting helps find sympathetic ears * Tribune: The two candidates running to replace retiring Cook County Sheriff Michael Sheahan agree the department must be modernized and should embrace a more effective use of technology. Beyond that, there is little common ground linking Democrat Tom Dart and Republican Peter Garza.
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Copley guv: 44-40-7
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.
If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls: * 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)
That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten. Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor. Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so. SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs. The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.
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