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Protected: FRESH SUBSCRIBER THREAD - Emil Jones now has a veto-proof majority *** Updated x7 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The live video from CBS2 is now up and running.

Also, Judy Baar Topinka has just conceded.

Use this as a new election results open thread.

*** UPDATE *** Want a good idea what kind of a day it’s been? With 47 percent of the vote counted, Tony Peraica is barely ahead in his re-election bid for Cook County Board Commissioner. This is not the president’s race we’re talking about. He’s barely ahead in his own commissioner’s race. 16,916 for Peraica (50.66 percent) to 16,473 for Democrat William Gomolinski (49.34 percent). Lots of votes to count.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Holy Moly. Cook County Board of Review Republican incumbent Maureen Murphy, a former state Rep., is losing badly to Democrat Brendan Houlihan, 56.7 to 43.3 with 69 percent counted.

*** UPDATE 3 *** AP has declared Alexi Giannoulias the winner. That’s a sweep for the Democrats, who were swept 12 years ago. And Senate President Emil Jones is closing in on a veto-proof majority as I write this.

*** UPDATE 4 *** If you’re still up at 12:49, you really should be watching Chicago TV right now. This Cook County thing is getting more bizarre by the minute. Tony Peraica and a crowd of angry supporters are heading over to the County Building. ABC7’s feed is still on.

81 Comments

Congressional thread *** Updated x4 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

We’re finally starting to get some numbers out of Congressional races. Go check them out here.

At 9:12 pm, with 39.8 percent of the votes counted, Republican Mark Kirk was ahead of Democrat Dan Seals 51.3 to 48.7.

Also at 9:12, with about half the vote counted, Democrat Melissa Bean is leading her three-way race 49.7 to 44.9 to 5.4.

Not enough numbers in 6 to even bother reporting.

*** UPDATE *** The AP has declared Congressmen Jerry Weller a winner.

*** UPDATE 2 *** I missed this one earlier, but it’s no surprise. The AP has declared Democrat Phil Hare a winner over Andrea Zinga.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Democrat Melissa Bean has been declared the winner. Too busy to check the national scene right now. How’s it going? Tell me in comments.

*** UPDATE 4 *** Trib reports that Peter Roskam wins, Duckworth loses.

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Protected: AT LEAST FIVE LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS IN BIG DANGER *** UPDATED X7 *** Serious craziness for some Dems in DuPage

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Where to find legislative results

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Projected: 49-39-11 - Associated Press Calls Election for Blagojevich… AP Calls race for Lisa Madigan, Jesse White *** Updated x13 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Post ‘em as they come in.

*** UPDATE *** The Associated Press has called the election for Rod Blagojevich at 7:05pm.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Judy Baar Topinka wants to see some results before conceding.

*** UPDATE 3 *** AP prediction is based on exit polling. There’s some controversy over the AP’s move because Kane County is still voting. An early call like this could impact two Tier One state Senate races.

*** UPDATE 4 *** The AP has not released its exit polling results yet, but Blagojevich must have a huge lead for the AP to make such a quick announcement.

*** UPDATE 5 *** AP:

The governor did well with all age groups except those ages 45-59, and he did especially well with young people. Blagojevich was also favored by those with incomes below $75,000, those without a college degree and union members _ while splitting the non-union vote with Topinka. […]

Among those who viewed corruption and ethics as extremely important, Blagojevich split that vote with Topinka. According to the poll of more than 13-hundred voters, he edged her among those who saw it as very important.

*** UPDATE 6 *** AP:

Blagojevich received strong support from women compared to his female Republican opponent. He also was favored by blacks and Latinos, union members and those who believe the condition of Illinois’ economy is good. […]

Judy Baar Topinka had a slight edge among white voters and saw support from those whose family income is above $50,000. She had an edge among those who consider themselves political independents.

*** UPDATE 7 *** AP story links on the governor’s win can be found here, here, here, here, and here.

*** UPDATE 8 *** The exit polling reportedly had the Blagojevich lead in the double-digits during the 4 o’clock round of surveys and the media honchos at the time decided that if the 7 o’clock numbers were about the same they’d call it for Blagojevich right away. The Blagojevich people say privately that they’ve been looking at a big lead in their own analysis today.

*** UPDATE 9 *** Word is, the AP had the generic ballot statewide at 46/30 for the Democrats.

*** UPDATE 10 *** The AP’s projected vote total is 49/39/11.

*** UPDATE 11 *** Statement by Judy Baar Topinka at 8:10 pm:

It is irresponsible for the Associated Press to call this race while voters in one of the larger counties in the state are still casting ballots for 90 minutes.

On Election Day, every voter in Illinois deserves to cast their ballot without the premature interference of a news outlet.

Recent history has shown that exit polls are not always accurate. An early call of any election depresses voter turnout and disenfranchises voters. That is unfortunate for the democratic process.

All individuals who intended to cast ballots in this race should do so.

*** UPDATE 12 *** Even though polls were still open in Kane County, at about 8:18 the AP called the race for attorney general Lisa Madigan.

*** UPDATE 13 *** AP has called it for Jesse White.

[Comments closed. Go here.]

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Late afternoon elections experience thread *** Updated x8 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Updated with preliminary turnout numbers and bumped to the top.]

I don’t know if you’ve noticed it or not, but this blog - whether in comments or on the front page - has broken every major story about election problems in Illinois today, from the Kane County Clerk fiasco to Cook County voters walking off with the magic pens, and plenty more.

Good job. And while we’re patting ourselves on the back, we also got a mention in today’s MSNBC story about those harrassing GOP robocalls that the Tribune and others refuse to take seriously.

Here’s the MSNBC piece. It’s a bit difficult to see it on this clip, but the network credits the blog because we’re the ones who posted the robocall audio in the first place.

Keep those election day observations coming. Warning: This is a Britney-free zone. [Goofy spelling error corrected]

*** UPDATE *** E-mail from a friend (slightly altered to protect the identity)

Elmwood (Peoria County). A co-worker of mine got in line to vote at 7:00. There were five electronic voting machines for the entire town, no paper ballot option.

When she got in line 3 of the five machines were working, while she was in line a third went out, and just before she voted they unplugged & re-plugged all to “re-boot” their software.

The national media, pundits and leaders all demanded that the nation modernize its voting after the notorious 2000 problems with punchcards. I didn’t have any trouble with casting my electronic vote in Springfield, but I also had to trust the computer to tabulate my vote for me. The paper trail was unreadable computer code. I don’t like that.

Discuss if you like. Also, what else have you heard?

*** UPDATE 2 ***
This isn’t a huge deal since only one precinct opened late. But it’s still noteworthy.

One Bloom Township precinct could not open on time at 6 a.m. today because the keys and a precinct judge were missing, according to an official from Cook County Clerk David Orr’s office. […]

But polling precinct 92, at Brookwood Middle School, 200 Glenwood-Lansing Road in Glenwood, did not open until 8:25 a.m., said Kelley Quinn, spokeswoman for Cook County Clerk’s David Orr’s office.

“The supply judge quit,” Quinn said. “She didn’t show up and she had the key.”

The precinct will remain open until 8 p.m., Quinn said.

*** UPDATE 3 *** This Kane County Clerk guy really sounds like he’s on the ball. Not.

Kane County Judge F. Keith Brown ruled late this afternoon that polling places for all 223 precincts in the county would remain open until 8:30 tonight.

â€œSometimes we need to bend over backward to make sure all have the right to vote,â€ Brown said after making his decision.

It was a difficult decision, Brown said, because of a lack of information from the Kane County Clerkâ€™s office.

Brown said there were lots of questions but few specifics, referring to which polling places were down, for how long the polling places were down and why.

More than 40 polling sites - out of 169 in the county - did not open on time this morning, prompting county election officials to request an extension.

And here’s the official order:

*** UPDATE 4 *** Turnout numbers:

Energized by the possibility of a shift in Washington’s power structure, Illinois voters spent Tuesday visiting the polls, even as logistical problems forced election officials to extend voting hours in some precincts.

Turnout around the state was steady and officials expected at least 50 percent of registered voters to vote before balloting ended at 7 p.m., Dan White, director of the State Board of Elections said this afternoon. About 52 percent of registered voters typically show up during a mid-term election, he said.

*** UPDATE 5 *** From blogger Bill Baar, a Kane County resident, in comments:

I had an automated call from [US House Speaker Dennis] Hastert telling me Kane would be open until 830.

*** UPDATE 6 *** Republicans are doing a massive volunteer and paid phone banking operation right now (7pm) to call people in Kane County. I assume the Dems are doing the same. Will check, though.

*** UPDATE 7 *** As I expected, the Dems are doing robocalls and phone-banking as well in Kane County.

*** UPDATE 8 *** Democrats have reportedly been debating internally whether to file a motion with the Illinois Supreme Court to close the polls in Kane County that didn’t have problems this morning. Some Dems just want to keep open the 40 that had problems. The argument is it benefits the GOP to keep all the polls open. A spokesman for the Supreme Court said he hadn’t seen anything yet and didn’t even know where someone could file a motion like this.

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Exit polls

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Raw Story appears to have them.

Go look and discuss here if you want. I’m a bit distracted for an hour or so.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Two major legislative races impacted by Kane County’s voting chaos *** Updated x1 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Fresh elections experience report thread *** Updated x6 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Updated and bumped to the top. Check out the Kane County updates. Unbelievable.]

Keep those polling place stories coming. Also, what else have you heard or seen on the street?

Scroll down to see the 8 updates from the last election day thread.

*** UPDATE 1 *** This particular problem was reported in comments much earlier this morning.

Early morning voting brought dozens of complaints about malfunctioning electronic voting machines and a lack of special pens required to mark the alternative paper ballots.

As the complaints mounted, Cook County Clerk David Orr was dispatched with boxes of the pens to deliver while making his traditional inspection of suburban Cook County polling places. […]

“We have had many, many complaints,” said Kelley Quinn, an Orr spokeswoman. “More than 100.”

Also this morning, county officials said they received a court order to keep two polling places open an hour later this evening because judges did not show up and they were not able to open up by 6 a.m. Precinct 7 in Cicero and Precinct 92 in Bloomfield Township will remain open until 8 p.m.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Here’s an update from CBS2 on that problem in Kane County that I told you about earlier today:

Kane County polls will remain open until 9:30 p.m. after a larger number of polling places opened late Tuesday morning, officials said.

Kane County Clerk John Cunningham said he would be getting a court order to keep all polls county-wide open later so that early-morning commuters who missed the chance to vote would have time after work to return to the polls.

Cunningham said he is worried voters will be “disenfranchised” because election clerks were slow to open polling places on Election Day morning.

He said the delayed opening of many polling places was “unacceptable.”

The late-night polling places will delay election results Tuesday evening in Kane County.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Lisa Madigan on the job:

A spokeswoman for Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s office said they have received a steady stream of calls with complaints, mostly about lack of supplies, such as too few pens. The office also reported complaints about equipment failures, including problems with ballot counters and touch screens not working properly.

But spokeswoman Cara Smith could not immediately comment on how widespread the problems with election equipment were.

Madigan sent out several teams of assistant attorneys general and investigators to monitor polling place activity to help ensure polling places were accessible and citizens’ voting rights were protected.

*** UPDATE 4 *** Apparently, the Kane County Democrats tried to warn the dominant Republicans about some of these and other issues last month and were dismissed as partisans.

He also said there should be an investigation because of the combination of nationwide concern over electronic voting machines and how secure they are, and the fact that David Bruun, the county’s director of elections, is a convicted felon… “Why not have him work in some other area like the mail room or vital records?” […]

When Guethle opened the floor for questions, most of them came from Republicans sitting in the audience. Kane County GOP Chairman Dennis Wiggins called it “ridiculous” to ask for an investigation of someone who has done nothing wrong, as far as elections go.

He said it was unfair for Democrats to criticize the hiring of Bruun, while the township has as its clerk Juan Thomas, a Democrat who was given a 90-day suspension of his law license for submitting a bond release form with a falsified signature.

He also criticized Guethle for asking for an investigation of the county clerk’s office, but not mentioning the Aurora Election Commission. That commission handles elections inside the city of Aurora, which coincides with most of Aurora Township. Wiggins said the Election Commission could have put an early voting site at the township, but also did not.

[Hat tip to a subscriber in comments.]

*** UPDATE 5 *** It seems that the Kane County Clerk has a history of problems with election day. The Aurora Beacon News published this story early today.

Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham expects to avoid what happened in 2002, when Kane’s vote counting had to be shut down because of a problem with ballots in an uncontested County Board race.

Unofficial results weren’t reported until 3 a.m. that year, but this time Cunningham said he hopes to have all 223 precincts counted by 10:30 p.m.

*** UPDATE 6 *** It just keeps getting worse.

More than 40 polling sites in Kane County did not open on time this morning, prompting election officials to request a court order to extend voting hours tonight.

The delays were caused largely by mechanical problems getting the county’s electronic voting machines up and running, County Clerk John Cunningham said. […]

The county has 223 polling sites. At more than 40 locations, workers were unable to power up electronic voting machines by 6 a.m., creating more than hour-long delays, Cunningham said.

All of the problems were resolved by 1 p.m., he said.

â€œI thought I had a backup for everything, but I didn’t,â€ Cunningham said.

One o’clock? For crying out loud.

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Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

We’re getting increased traffic, of course, so I’ve deleted a couple of news feeds that aren’t all that important for the rest of the day. They’ll mostly be reinstated tonight.

Also, I’ve bumped up the CBS2 feed on the right side because they’re doing lots of updates. Expect regular, hourly updates starting at 7pm and then at 9:55 pm CBS2 will go live for several hours. I’ll have that live video feed for you on the right side above the ads and the news feeds.

One other quick thing - the “Election Night” pulldown menu on the right side under the subscription box is not quite finished yet. The CNN and the State Vote links work, but the others won’t be activated until the papers post links for their live results. Everything else should be working fine.

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Turnout reports - Election experience - Other observations *** Updated x8 ***

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Renamed and bumped up to the top again because it’s the most important post of the morning.]

What was turnout like at your polling place this morning? If you haven’t voted yet, make sure to ask when you get there. What other things have you noticed today?

Also, please disclose your general area when describing turnout, voting experience and other observations. It does nobody any good if you say there was a long line at your precinct place but you don’t tell us where you are.

*** UPDATE *** From The Hotline’s blog at around 9:30:

We’ve checked in with the national parties, and aside from minor, sporadic tangles and anecdotal evidence of high turnout, there are no major national voting problems.

*** UPDATE 2 *** These electronic voting machines have got to go. From the Tribune:

Sticky or slippery hands–from too much lotion or even a tasty meal–can foul up keycards used to activate touch-screen balloting machines, forcing voters to return to check-in lines and triggering delays.

The importance of hand-washing was just one of the lessons learned during early voting, as election officials sought ways to head off problems in this modern era of electronic balloting.

Anyone have any problems with this yet?

*** UPDATE 3 *** Are there problems with the electronic machines breaking down in Cook County and Chicago? Republicans are claiming long lines, people leaving because the machines aren’t functioning properly. So far, it’s just a handful of examples. No widespread reports of massive problems as of yet, but stay tuned.

*** UPDATE 4 *** Top official with the Cook County Clerk’s elections office disputed the GOP claims in Update 3. Official statement soon.

*** UPDATE 5 *** Statement from the Cook County Clerk’s office: “Overall, so far, things are running a lot more smoothly for us than they were in March… Scattered problems, but there are scattered problems in every election… [Problems have been] pretty simple to fix over the phone… Things are better.”

*** UPDATE 6 *** Just received this e-mail from Joshua Hoyt at the The Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights:

Rich, big problems with Latino voter suppression issue in Carpentersville and to a lesser extent in Elgin.

In Carpentersville there were 7 precincts, all on the East Side, that opened up to two and half hours late. There were significant issues with hostile judges and an unresponsive Kane County Board of Elections. Two big Latino precincts in Elgin were problematic as well.

ICIRR has the U.S. Attorney getting involved, and MALDEF is investigating filing suit to keep the polls open till 9:00.

This is significant because, in addition to being where the anti-immigrant ordinance was filed and tabled and where Minuteman activity is greatest, it is also Speaker Hastert’s district.

*** UPDATE 7 *** Most of you probably already know this, but consider it a public service message. From the Sun-Times website:

State Board of Elections, (312) 263-7367; Hearing impaired, (312) 814-3374. United States attorney, (312) 469-6157. Illinois attorney general, (866) 536-3496; Hearing impaired, (312) 814-3374. Cook County state’s attorney, (312) 603-7960.

In the city, Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, (312) 269-7870; Hearing impaired, (312) 269-0027. In Cook County suburbs, (312) 603-0236; Hearing impaired, (312) 603-0902. In collar counties, DuPage, (630) 407-5600; Hearing impaired, (630) 407-5631. Lake, (847) 377-2410; Hearing impaired, (847) 377-2022. McHenry, (815) 334-4242. Will, (815) 740-4615; Hearing impaired, (815) 740-4621. Kane, (630) 232-5990. Aurora, (630) 897-4030.

*** UPDATE 8 *** CBS2 reporting from Wilmette, has a story on voting problems.

[Comments closed. Please go here for a fresh thread.]

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Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I really need to buy a generator. Of all days to happen, the power went out at the International Headquarters. Thanks to quick work by CWLP, it was back on within 30 minutes. Heart attack avoided.

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Election day traditions?

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Do you have any particular election day tradition? I used to get my hair cut on election day, but now that I get my hair cut on a much more regular basis I don’t do that any longer.

[Idea blatantly stolen from Tom Kacich’s blog.]

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Target Feed (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Upset prediction

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Choose one race, it doesn’t matter what level, that you think will surprise the pundits and the experts. Explain why.

Let’s try to keep it to Illinois, however.

38 Comments

Question of the day

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

What do you think this year’s election will be best remembered for?

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Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Man, the State Board of Elections website doesn’t appear to be handling this morning’s traffic all that well. It’s a buggy mess anyway, but it is particularly bad today.

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Election coverage round-up

Tuesday, Nov 7, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Precinct captains, when faced with a recalcitrant voter, will often try to bargain with them to get just a couple of crucial votes out of the household. The Tribune appoints itself a captain today.

If you feel confused, or fatigued, or intimidated, you may not want to vote Tuesday. Would you, though, give 10 minutes to prove that deceit and smear ads shouldn’t pay? To say you want an ounce of pride in the people you permit to spend your tax dollars, in your name, to shelter troubled girls and boys, and to provide health care to uninsured families?

We’re asking you to vote for Judy Baar Topinka for governor. And if you live in Cook County, to vote for Tony Peraica for Cook County Board president. You don’t have to share their every belief. You can, though, vote for them knowing they will disrupt the costly piracy by insiders that has corrupted your county and state governments. […]

Two votes on Tuesday will be most critical. If you’ll spare the minutes, you can renounce the Illinois culture of political sleaze. Or you can give that culture of sleaze bright prospects for more deals and crimes.

Judy Baar Topinka and Tony Peraica got where they are not by birthright or scheming, but by honest hard work. They deserve your votes. Their principal opponents–and the serial cheaters who got them where they are–do not.

Trouble is, captains understand that the votes they can usually bargain for are way down the ballot. People like to believer that they’re making up their own minds about top of the ticket races.

* The Sun-Times wrap-up article gives five reasons to vote today.

* Meanwhile, ">Bill Dennis calls Zorn out.

* After being buffeted on talk radio and tweaked on TV news, Topinka refused to apologize to Cub fans.

Topinka tried to downplay remarks she made Sunday in Bloomington in which she suggested Blagojevich should manage the Cubs because both are â€œlosers.â€ Blagojevich called on her to apologize, but no apology was forthcoming.

â€œHe needs to pay attention to state government. Thatâ€™s what Iâ€™m doing,â€ she said in Chicago, adding that issues like corruption and the state budget were more important.

* Mike Lawrence and Edwin Eisendrath each write about the election and the aftermath.

* The Tribune wrap-up article makes a good point.

Many Illinoisans–unused to figuring into the national political equation–saw for perhaps the first time how races have been conducted across the country in the last few years, with millions of dollars spent by national Republicans and Democrats on attack ads, automated telephone calls and micro-targeted direct-mail pieces.

* And it was some serious spending:

If money is the mother’s milk of politics, there are some fat babies out there among local TV stations this campaign season.

“They’re buying up every conceivable piece of time that you could see on television,” Emily Barr, president and general manager of ABC-owned WLS-Ch. 7, said of candidates and political advocates this election season.

Thanks to several tight races with national implications, particularly the Tammy Duckworth-Peter Roskam battle in the 6th Congressional District and David McSweeney-Melissa Bean fight in the 8th, Chicago-area political TV advertising has reached record heights in the run-up to Tuesday’s election.

Spending on campaign TV commercials on local outlets has been in the $40 million range, according to station sources. That’s more than double the $18 million or so spent locally on political TV ads in 2004, even with the White House at stake, in part because neither party saw Illinois in play.

* And the Daily Herald sets the stage.

Benumbed by more negative TV ads than any election in recent memory, suburban voters head to the polls today to decide whether to keep or dump their governor and offer the final word on a trio of hard-fought congressional races whose outcome will help determine whether Speaker Dennis Hastert and the Republican Party hold on to power.

With political scandals dominating the landscape and perhaps $20 million spent on negative ads in the governorâ€™s race alone, the state could be hard-pressed to match the 52 percent average turnout in a nonpresidential election.

Republicans were trying to motivate their core supporters, whose polls showed were less enthusiastic than usual, while Democrats used the prospect of taking back Congress to try to get their backers out.

Polls may open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. today, but the nightâ€™s biggest story might be whether the election comes off without major technical glitches both in Illinois and especially the rest of the nation, where new electronic voting equipment will be used for the first time.

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AccuWeather forecast

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’ve posted the Illinois weather map in the center column as well. Let’s use this post for local weather observations on Tuesday and musings on the weather’s impact on the big race.

Weather Forecasts | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

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Late numbers

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Chew these over while you’re chewing on your nails waiting for everything to be over.

* The latest polls in the governor’s race:

* 61-39 - Polimetrix, Nov. 5 (800 LV)
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)

* All recent blog posts on polls can be found here.

* The Hotline looks back at 1994 to check the generic ballot numbers:

ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

* The most recent Fox poll has Democrats leading generic ballot by 13. Check out all the recent generic ballot polls here. Five out of the last 8 taken since 11/1 have Dems ahead by more than ten (one at 20).

* But, the Hotline has this from a trusted GOP insider.

The [late Republican] momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they havenâ€™t been bad in the past, so I wouldnâ€™t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents â€“ particularly conservative Iâ€™s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).

* Democracy Corps thinks otherwise. Click here for its pdf report of 50-race polling.

This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.

* Oy.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Money; Boland-Haring TV ad; “Indian” TV ad; “Illegal” TV ad; Roth; Personal PAC; Poe-Cahnman; Reposts from Friday; Target feed (Use all caps in password)

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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In which I finally get to meet Tim Nieukirk…

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I threw a party for a few pals in Chicago Saturday night. My usual pre-election thing. The highlight of the evening was a special appearance by write-in candidate Tim Nieukirk, his running mate Casey DeFauw and campaign manager Ryan Rudd.

These guys have got it going on. It didn’t take long to figure out that the stir they’ve created was no accident. A lot of planning and a whole lot of work went into their YouTube candidacy.

My favorite line of the evening was from DeFauw: “And that’s when I called Tim and said ‘Dude, we’re gonna nuke the Hamburglar.’”

The man himself, Tim Nieukirk…

Running mate Casey DeFauw, who directed all the spots…

Campaign manager Ryan Rudd…

Group hug…

See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here.

They haven’t sold much Get Nieuked gear at their Cafe Press site, and since they’ve financed their entire “campaign” out of their own pockets it would be a good thing if you could go to their site and help them out. If they’ve made you laugh out loud during a miserably negative year when there wasn’t much to laugh about, the least you could do is buy a button or something.

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Question of the day

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’ll post more later today, but I wanted to get the QOTD out of the way first.

Final election predictions. Statewide, congressional and Cook County president. Throw in any state legislative races that interest you. Please use exact percentages.

69 Comments

More on those robocalls *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The deceptive robocalls I told you about last week aren’t confined to Illinois.

The calls, paid for by the National Republican Campaign Committee, are running in 53 US House races, according to the Boston Globe.

The calls beging with “Hello, I’m calling with information about [Democratic candidate’s name here].” Lots of voters tend to hang up after the first sentence, but then they get another call right away from the system, leading some to believe that the Democratic candidate is bombarding them with idiotic calls.

You can listen to some examples of the robocalls done against Tammy Duckworth by clicking here.

Not everyone is blaming the innocent Democratic candidates, however.

Joan Sherrill had not decided how to vote in the 8th Congressional race until she received more than a dozen phone calls from Republican David McSweeney.

At that point, the choice was clear.

â€œI am voting for (Democrat) Melissa Bean,â€ the Palatine woman said. â€œThe calls are just too much. Theyâ€™re annoying.â€

Despite all the hooplah on Democratic blogs about the outrageousness of the robocall campaign, as is almost always the case with politics, neither side is completely clean. From Dennis Byrne’s column:

It starts out as a typical poll. “Would you care to answer a few questions about the elections,” the voice on your phone asks. “Whom do you plan to vote for?”

Then it gets weird. As in: “Candidate A beats his wife; does that make you think of him more or less favorably?” Or as my daughter Kati heard when she was called: “Does the fact that Congressman Mark Kirk accepts special-interest money make you think of him more favorably or less favorably?”

So, if you are a supporter of Kirk–the Republican from the north suburban 10th Congressional District who is seeking re-election against Democrat Dan Seals–how are you supposed to answer? Oh, sure, I want my congressman to take special-interest money, so it makes me think more favorably of him.

Which is exactly how Kati, being Kati, answered. Then came four more questions of the same nature, each trying to make Kirk look like he was doing something wrong. And each time, Kati answered that she thinks more favorably of him. She even had the interviewer chuckling. But actually, it wasn’t so funny.

“It’s like Mark Kirk went out and shot 100 people,” she said. “What kind of poll is this anyway?”

The answer is: dirty, low-down and negative.

*** UPDATE *** Pioneer Press has a story up about the robocalls.

Rozanne Ronen, a Barrington resident, got the call — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Melissa Bean …”

Then she got the call again and again and 18 more times, making for a total of about 21 calls since October 24.

“They are very annoying,” Ronen said.

Pat Vockeroth, of Mount Prospect, received the calls too — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Tammy Duckworth …”

“If you only listen to the first sentence, you think they are from the Duckworth campaign,” she said.

But the calls aren’t paid for by Bean, Duckworth or even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, they are paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The media really needs to do something more on this. As other bloggers have noted, this is obviously an attempt at vote suppression.

17 Comments

Green was a Red

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Just when you think it couldn’t get any goofier, Rich Whitney was red-baited.

It turns out the Green Party candidate used to be a Red. The Topinka campaign and the Illinois GOP, anxious to herd Republican voters back into line, held a press conference after the Daily Herald broke the story.

Green Party governor candidate Rich Whitney of Carbondale was a national figure in the Socialist Party before resigning his post in 1993 after getting in a feud and quitting for law school.

â€œNaturally, I donâ€™t trumpet the fact that I was a Socialist. I was a Socialist because in my political evolution, Iâ€™ve always cared about working people,â€ Whitney told the Daily Herald late Saturday night. â€œIâ€™m not a Socialist now. A lot of people did things in the 60s and 70s they donâ€™t do now.â€

You can say that again.

Here’s part of the Republican press release:

“Rich Whitney has deliberately misled the voters of Illinois about his past and his 20 years as a member of the Socialist Labor Party of America,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna.

“These revelations about Whitney’s extreme views show voters now more than ever that this election is between Judy Baar Topinka and Rod Blagojevich,” said McKenna. “On Tuesday when voters step into the voting booth, they need to know if they want a change from Rod Blagojevich’s broken promises, they need to vote for Judy Baar Topinka to move this state forward.”

Whitney did a pretty good job of handling himself, considering the subject matter and Topinka played good cop to the GOP’s bad cop:

[Whitney] said his positions in the governor’s race — funding education by raising the income tax and lowering local property taxes, universal health care and cleaning up corruption — are “mainstream” positions.

“I’m the one that’s running on the mainstream,” he said. “Putting a casino in Chicago? Now that’s a kooky idea, OK?”

But even as McKenna denounced Whitney’s views, Topinka, who proposed a Chicago casino, sought to downplay the third party’s significance.

“I don’t think that’s particularly mainstream Illinois,” she said of Whitney’s past. “But, you know, again, I’d have to stress, I don’t think he’s really been a big issue here. It’s between Rod Blagojevich and me.

Discuss.

76 Comments

Morning shorts

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Pew:

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

* Daily Herald: If the analysts who track national politics for a living are to be believed, Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert has two chances of holding onto power Tuesday: slim and none.

* Obama: I regret deals with Rezko

* Bernie predicts guv wins re-election, Democratic sweep

* Door to door, face to face, race goes to wire - Duckworth, Roskam go to visit the voters

* Washington: Dems are excited about voting this time

* Stroger woos churchgoers as Peraica works the streets

* Kristen McQueary: My daughter turned 1 in October. I recently received a lovely card in the mail from Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the first lady congratulating me on her birth and informing me of my right to breastfeed in public. Thanks, but we’re on milk and solid food, guys. Makes you think there’s an election around the corner or something.

* Miller: Polls show voters never believed much Blagojevich ever said. But they do believe what they see and hear, and the Blagojevich campaign masterfully used Topinka’s own words against her. “I love you dearly,” she said to George Ryan at an emotional State Fair event in 2002. The now infamous video clip of her speech, along with the reportedly electronically altered sight of her bobbing her head up and down as Ryan spoke at the podium was replayed about a billion times on TV. The Blagojevich people have built almost their entire campaign around that clip, which makes the case for them that she was “George Ryan’s treasurer.”

* Robaugh: Who you gonna vote for?

* Comptroller debate turns ugly

* Tribune: The Committee for Retention of Judges in Cook County, a joint effort of the judges and their supporters, raised $247,900 this year to support the 71 Circuit Court and appellate judges who will appear on ballots Tuesday.

* Libeled by a campaign ad? Probably not - Few candidates sue; those who do usually lose

* Garza picks up Jackson endorsement

* For campaigns, home is where the rent is cheap, lease short

* Former President Bill Clinton… has recorded radio ads and automated phone calls asking voters to support Blagojevich on Tuesday’s election.

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