Paul Green writes today about Illinois’ evolution from one of the most competitive states in the nation to a “solid deep blue Democratic Party bastion.” The way he paints it, the news is severely bleak for Republicans.

Chicago for decades has been bedrock Democratic, and though its turnout numbers have diminished it still produces massive margins for Democrats — e.g., Gov. Blagojevich won more than 77 percent of the 2006 Chicago vote. Suburban Cook County — until recently a partial Republican counter to Democratic Chicago — has become almost reliably Democratic. Blagojevich carried the region by 100,000 votes. Racial change in the south suburbs has spurred this political shift, but Republican vote decline goes deeper. Perhaps most discouraging for Illinois Republicans is that the shift in suburban political loyalties has taken place as suburban voter turnout finally has passed Chicago.

The five collar counties (DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will) are the only region whose vote power is on the increase. In 2006 these five counties accounted for a little less than one-fourth of the Illinois total vote. A few decades ago this news would have been bliss for Illinois Republicans, but today it merely receives shrugs. The collars in statewide races (and some legislative and congressional contests as well) are no longer overwhelmingly Republican — in fact, Blagojevich carried two of the collars, Lake and Will, in November. The other three are becoming politically competitive in statewide battles, which leaves the Illinois GOP with no huge bedrock vote base to offset Democratic Chicago and suburban Cook.

The GOP has maintained its strength in central Illinois, but Democratic vote muscle in the southern part of the state combined with Democratic Cook County now overwhelms Republican statewide candidates. In short, there aren’t enough GOP central Illinois voters to overcome the “Democratic statewide squeeze.”

Then there is the problem with Republican Party infighting, which Green claims makes the Democratic troubles (Madigan vs. Blagojevich and Jones vs. Madigan) look like a “combination of the Waltons and the Brady Bunch.”

Not mentioned by Green is the possiblity that the corruption issue could do to the Democrats what it did to the Republicans in the wake of the George Ryan scandal.

Joe Birkett, who is reportedly positioning himself for a run at the governor’s mansion in 2010 (which might set up another showdown with Lisa Madigan), begs to differ.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich will not finish his current term, a leading Republican predicted Friday, and the GOP needs to be ready to take action when the indictment is handed down. […]

The Wheaton Republican told the assembly the ongoing corruption investigation is moving ever closer to Blagojevich, and the incumbent Democratic governor clearly is on borrowed time. […]

“It’s like watching that movie ‘Groundhog Day;’ it’s going to happen again,” he said, alluding to the conviction of former Republican Gov. George Ryan. “It’s basically the same script except that in this case they’re much, much closer. They’re right in the inner sanctum.” […]

Birkett said he anticipates that the growing “pay-to-play” scandal would topple the Blagojevich administration, giving Republicans a chance to win back the public trust along many positions in state government.

I would only remind Birkett that hope is not a plan, but I’m interested to hear your thoughts on this.

And, please, let’s not just focus on the corruption stuff. Green’s numbers are devastating for the GOP, and some of you need to face some facts. You can’t kick Chicago or Cook County out of the state, so deal with it. And the collars are trending more Democratic every year, while downstate is emptying out of people.

Anyway, discuss.