38 Comments - Jerry - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 8:53 am: Some of it could be the thousands of people the Chicago Housing Authority “lost” after kicking everyone out of the highrises. They have to go somewhere. - Leroy - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 8:53 am: You can (in part) thank me for this. I saw no reason to report myself & my family in the Y2K census. Seeing as how Illinois / Cook County / Chicago are so corrupt, I did not feel obliged in any way to assist them at getting more representation and power on the national level. No need to drag the rest of the country down with us here Illinois. - the Other Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:15 am: Let’s not over-sensationalize the loss in Cook County population. Yes, it is the third highest population decline among the 100 largest counties in absolute numbers. But Cook is also the second largest county. (LA County has about 9.9 mln, Cook about 5.8 mln, Harrix TX about 3.9mln.) So, in terms of percentage, Cook has done better than most large urban counties experiencing a population loss. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) lost 5.6% of its 2000 population; Philadelphia County and Allegheny (Pittsburgh) each lost 4.5%; San Francisco County lost 4.2%; Wayne County (Detroit) lost 4.3%and even Milwaukee lost 2.6%. By contrast, Cook County lost 1.6% of its 2000 population. Population loss is an issue in Cook, but it’s not as dramatic as the article makes out. The real question raised by these census figures is the explosive growth of the collar counties and how they will handle the issues of sprawl and over-development. It’s clear to me (opinion, for those who insist on cites) that the difference between Cook and the collars is new housing starts and the cost of housing in the collars. Housing in Cook is simply expensive. However, the real question for the region is whether the new, cheaper housing starts in Will, Kane, and McHenry will flood the job market in those areas; or will the new homeowners end up with longer and longer commutes, further taxing an already congested transportation grid. Plus, are these counties making long term plans to become mature communities? By that I mean are the counties planning for future schools, future health needs, etc.? - Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:17 am: I blame Todd Stroger. Hey when did Kendall County build its courthouse? 10 years ago? Now it’s already too small. The level of growth out there is frightening. Naperville West…. - Dieter - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:19 am: Cook County, at a governmental level, is the closest thing we have to a dictatorship in this country. It operates with disregard for the quality of life for its citizens. The focus is on promoting family members and friends into high positions within government, while taxes are raised, services cut, and deficits balloon. Not unlike events in Pyongyang. This carries into quality of life issues, which seem to have been getting worse and worse over the last 10 years. I’m not surprised by this information. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:20 am: Our families have left Cook county and Chicago over the past 5 years. We are talking about 22 people. Over the past two years, my mother and I have discussed how happy we are she is no longer there. Her enthusiasm for living in Springfield has trickled over to her friends and sisters in law, who are now looking to leave. That would be another 5 on top of the 22 who have already left since 2001. And these people are seriously leaving! I still can’t believe it. There are many personal reasons. The common thread is the feeling that Chicagoland is out of control and no longer offers an environment for growing families. Our neighborhood filled up with Section 8 housing. The fabulous elementary schools had to start dealing with crime and fatherless children. Gangs started roaming the streets and crack houses opened two doors down from my mom and dad. We even had a double homicide killing a neighbor and his wife my parents knew. Housing values fell as rotten mortgage companies ripped off families forcing them to abandon houses. When my mom’s house was being sold, she had to compete with five other similar houses abandoned and costing half as much as she was asking. Property taxes are horrendous. Cook county government seems third-world with rampant cronyism, corruption and scandals. Traffic jams occured most of the day and into the night. It took forever to get anywhere to shop, dine and attend church. When I moved to Springfield, our families thought I was nuts. Then they started coming to visit and discovered another world. They saw how much things cost in Central Illinois and packed up. It has been phenomenal to witness our families leaving Chicago. We go back generations and Chicago was our first homes in America. But the crime, the traffic, the costs, the lousy neighborhoods, the terrible schools, the government corruption just overwhelmed our inbred love of our city. We have many ex-Chicagoans living with us here in Springfield. We have also been meeting young couples from Southern California, who lived their entire life there, but bailed to raise their families. I get mocked for my “conservative” stands, but I was just as Democratic as everyone else in Cook county. I understand the reasons voters chose the Democrats to run our state. But there is a far better way to do things then tax tax tax and build more social programs. Blagojevich can’t fix what is wrong with Chicago and his policies damage the city further. I know first-hand and experienced it: Red States offer a future and Blue States are in decline being forced towards socialism as everything unravels around them. Now a GRT? Talk about moving in the WRONG direction! - Anon - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:22 am: I live in one of the collar counties that is catching this overflow of people from Cook County. I asked two of the sales persons at two separate home developments if the new home buyers ever mentioned why they were leaving Cook County? Both of them dropped their voices down an octave and looked around the room before answering my question. They both said that the overwhelming reason given to them by people that were leaving Cook County was “the proverbial elephant in the room” that has become politically incorrect to talk about and in the real estate market, a sure fire way to get fired by discussing. They said the overwhelming reason given by their new home buyers coming from Cook County was “white flight”. The people were leaving Cook County because (in their view) Cook County was “imploding” due to deteriorating schools and infrastructure. They felt Cook County politics had become controlled by African-American politicians who existed to enrich themselves and their black constituency at the expense of the Illinois taxpayers who will eventually have to bail Cook County out financially. Mayor Daley and many of the other Cook County old-time politicians had abandoned them in order to win the votes of the large African-American community of voters. Daley had to sell his soul to stay in office. I know that this may not be true. I am simply relaying what I was told by several of the collar county home developers. Cook County is financially following the same road that Enron had traveled and Cook County will arrive at the same destination if and when the rest of counties in the state say “Enough”. - Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:22 am: “Cheaper” does describe the housing. “Less expensive” would do better. In the western suburbs, Naperville and Aurora are no longer satellite cities for Chicago. They have become hubs for residents in Kendall. In the south, Will is benefitting from two way Metra (the decline in Joliet has been arrested.) But we also have industries, wholesalers, Distribution Centers and the like leaving the high tax on business Cook County environment. In the north, Lake County is not in competition with Cook. Commercial Growth is going to southern Wisconsin. One can live in Lake County and commute to Kenosha now as Metra adds trains. On the east side, the Indiana regional development authority welcomes all comers from Cook. The State has eliminated the inventory tax. A circuit breaker has eliminated all property taxes above 2% of market value on residential housing now and on commercial/industrial property in 2010. It will trend valuations annually but otherwise not allow its taxing bodies to replace the money from other resources. Indiana passes back a nominal 20% or less (they do not subsidize local borrowing) of property tax levies to each taxing body., lowering local tax rates. But then the Deparment of Local Government Finance has to approve all requested levies from all taxing bodies each year. And, workman’s comp and unemployment insurance costs run lower and the cost per student in Indiana public schools is lower. That great big sucking noise you are hearing in Cook County? What could that be? Chicago may not be affected as much, it is a self sustaining ‘city-state’ and is seeing reverse migration. - Number 8 - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:26 am: A brave and bold action to make that anon sttement, anon. good work. - Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:27 am: If a house with a yard really matters, finding quality in Cook County at decent prices is very tough, particularily as interest rates go up. When homes that are at best “decent” go for $650,000 in places like Arlington Heights (and the commute is an hour), why not go a half hour further and get more house for less money? Real estate taxes are also a big issue. Taxes have pretty much kept my family out of Evanston, and price per square foot has kept us out of most of the rest. - Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:30 am: VM, If you think you are moving because of crime, you have another thing coming. Those downstate areas have drug problems at least as bad as Chicago. Since the people are white, you might not see it. And those Red States you spoke of? Most of them have the worst schools and the worst healthcare in the nation. That’s no future. - zatoichi - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:33 am: Had a chance to return to Chicago with a job move. Had grown up there and had family. Took a position in central Illinois and could not be happier. Great town, low living costs, good schools, low crime, low property tax, more money in savings/investments. Down side: entertainment limited, but Springfield, St.Louis, Champaign all in reasonable driving. Watching my cousins all slowly moving away in similar situations. Ones who stay paid off their homes years ago and feel no financial pressure. - Tom - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:42 am: I think Jerry has it. CHA residents have been displaced from housing near the center of the city. They are being replaced by singles and empty nesters, resulting in a net loss of population. The displaced residents are moving to the south and west sides and inner suburbs of Cook. Existing residents of those communities then flee, and have to go a long way out to find affordable housing. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 9:52 am: Schools, schools, schools. - Rosh - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:15 am: Well U.S. Census Bureau estimates are notoriously inaccurate. The Bureau claimed throughout the 1990’s that Chicago was losing population until the official census was done in 2000 showing that the city had gained over 100,000 residents. Cook County will probably post a small net decline in population, but I believe Chicago will post a gain in 2010. If you see the way the central core of the city is booming, then it ridiculous to think it is losing population. - Ali Bin Haddin - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:16 am: The population is fleeing? Wanna bet the vote totals increase in the declining neighborhoods? - VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:40 am: Skeeter, You don’t know what you are talking about. Your assumptions about my posting are shallow and ignorant. I give real reasons, and you throw darts at them and accuse me of bigotry. I am a South Sider. I grew up learning and worshipping with AA leaders. My grandparents marched for civil rights. I went to a diverse school. My alma mater is 40% black. Two of girlfriends were black. This is my entire life. So when I say there has been a migration of poor housing and fatherless families into my old neighborhood, I am not saying the neighborhood went from being white to black or mixed. It was always mixed. The new migration needs parents, fathers, guidelines, curfews, a different set of values, need to learn respect, learn the importance of education, drop the crack pipes and guns and stop pimping their children. This is not a black or white issue. It goes beyond that. If you or others are unwilling to have a real discussion regarding the problems behind the loss of population in the most important metropolitan area of Illinois, then stay out of it. But your quick insults only prevent intelligent concerned people the opportunity for real discussions. - Illinois Citizen - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:49 am: I live in downstate Illinois. More and more are telecommuting from our small community. And it’s great. I’m 2 minutes to my office. A 4,000 square foot house costs $300,000. Yes, it takes me two hours to see a major league ball game. But I’d rather have a 2 hour drive a few times a year, than a 1 hour commute 5 days a week. - Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:58 am: Vanilla, It is easy to talk about race not mattering. Actions speak louder than words. If you think you are moving to avoid crime and drugs, then you have your head in the sand. Drugs downstate are at least as bad as in Chicago, and maybe worse since the parents appear to ignore the problem. Pat yourself in the back for being a fine fellow if it makes you feel better. But when it comes down to it, crime and drugs are not legitimate reasons for leaving Cook County. Those problems are just as bad elsewhere. - Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 10:59 am: Ali ben Hadden – Most are still on the rolls in the machine wards. The precinct captains resubmit the registrations, pick up the data from friendly landlords who want municipal services, request absentee ballots, pick up the blanks, and vote. Which proves you don’t have to be dead to vote in Chicago…you don’t even have to live here. - leigh - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:10 am: I live in Kendall and it is obvious to me why people want to move here, it is a nice community. Our property taxes are ridiculous, but our housing is still a little cheaper than Dupage. And a point to the contrary, we are seeing diversity in our communities for the first time and it is a good thing. - Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:10 am: Drugs are a problem everywhere, no doubt about it. But “at least as bad”? If that were so people would not have to drive to the city to get fixed. From Waukegan to New Trier to Monee there are high school kids who are druggies. - anon - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:21 am: Once Chicago is awarded the Olympics, all of our problems will be solved. - Wumpus - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:27 am: Skeeter, still finding those imaginary klansmen. In the cuty, people are so compact that it is harder to avoid drugs related crimes. While I don’t know VM, apparently you do, maybe your allegations are a bit silly. Or perhaps you are projecting. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:36 am: Race, race, race. All the other excuses are a cover for traditional “white flight.” - Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 11:49 am: Interesing Wump. I’ve lived in Chicago for about twenty years and have never had any contact with drug-related crime. - cermak_rd - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 12:00 pm: In North Berwyn, I’ve seen a lot of houses going up for sale due largely to the influx of Latinos. They as the newcomers are blamed for the gangs (largely the Latin Kings so perhaps some individuals in that community are responsible) and over-crowding of schools (ridiculous, and not really germane as most of the people moving are older and don’t have kids). There was a call a while ago for the city to do something about all those Section 8 holders (another favorite scapegoat). Fortunately the city did some surveys and discovered that there were a little over a hundred Section 8 holders in Berwyn, out of a population of 50000+ that’s not a lot. So, in the case of North Berwyn (can’t speak for South Berwyn), I do think it is white flight to some extent. However, I don’t think it’s all ethnicism. No one likes having their garage tagged and having to paint over it, after a couple times of having that happen, I would probably move too. No one likes to feel threatened when walking their dog at night. Right now I don’t feel threatened, then again my dog is the size of a small tank. If I had to use the public schools, I would probably move too. They have low test scores and high incidences of violent episodes (particularly the high school). On the other hand, everytime an older couple move out a family seems to move in so I would suspect that Berwyn is actually growing in population over all. - Levois - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 12:47 pm: Hmm I will stop short of saying this is a good thing. It just means that if people are moving out of Cook or aren’t going anywhere near Cook, that will just mean changes are in order as to how government will operate. You can’t have all these services and taxes if lesser and lesser people are actually living in Cook to use these services. - Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 12:51 pm: Levois (of the people?) You probably meant fewer and fewer rather than “lesser and lesser” but I shall not think the less of you for it. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 12:56 pm: Not only does Skeeter not know VanillaMan, she don’t know Jack either. Really nice how well she takes a personal account and twist it into something insulting. She doesn’t know me. She has lived in Chicago 20 years - I lived there 30. The difference is I have lived other places and can make a realistic comparison with downstate Illinois while she can only look down her nose at everyone else. The only contributions she can make is to remind us of her voluntary close minded blindness on real issues. - fedup dem - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 1:10 pm: White flight, huh? Could someone explain the surge in Hispanic population in the collar counties (and the northwest portion of Cook County)? My guess is that those Census estimates should have been printed on Charmin, for all they are likely to be worth. As for Leroy, I trust you will do the honorable thing and turn yourself in for prosecution for intentionally defrauding multiple levels of government by not filling out a Census form in 2000. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 3:02 pm: I love the area south of I-80…well, not all of it but most of it. Springfield, Chambana, Quincy, the Metro East, the Carbondale-Marion corridor are all great places to live and work. But we can’t kid ourselves: those places (maybe not C-M) all have poverty and education issues. They may no be as prevalent or plentiful as Chicago’s but they are there. The entire east side of Springfield is a dangerous place, and some parts of the Metro East are atrocious and just as dangerous as South County in St. Louis (which, for those of you from Chitown, is one of the most crime-ridden areas in the entire county). But the lack of population changes things, and people often times think that less people equals less problems. If that can attract families and business, then more power to community leaders! The systemic demolishing of urban housing complexes is a good thing. Pre-fab homes and more Section 8 vouchers that are both offered through HUD are much better for a city than a place like Cabrini Green or Pruhidigo (or even the Hay Homes). If someone who is on public housing assistance has an opportunity to obtain a housing voucher or live in a place with better schools or more jobs, he or she should take. And if the downtown Chicago area cannot offer those perks, people must act accordingly. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 7:17 pm: I deal with exurban growth issues every day. To those who doubt the Census figures, they are becoming a more sophisticated and accurate agency as they have tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), computerized data bases of voter registration, utility use, automobile registration, digital aerial photography, and a myriad of intermediary special census hard counts that were unheard of 30, 20 and even 10 years ago. Yes, these are just estimates and are subject to sampling error, but they are a lot more accurate than they have been in the past. Believe the trends, if not the accuracy of the numbers down to the decimal point. Immigrants who traditionally landed in Cook before beginning a slow migration to the burbs are bypassing Cook completely and landing in the collars or even the next exurban ring. As for those who predict a reversal of these trends and a mass resettling of the city due to high gas prices and long commutes…it’s possible over a long period of time, but close-in property prices remain high even with net out-migration, some of the school systems are less desirable for those who can’t afford private educations, and there are structural problems with the urban transit system that are different but just as challenging as congestion in the far-flung areas. The city will hold its own being a job center with a rich cultural heritage. It’s some of the near suburbs that are likely to continue the trend of a “dumbbell” economy (heavy in the core and the outlying areas, skinny in between). - Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 7:26 pm: 6 degrees Just think, if we had school choice and charter schools we might be able to fill in the handle on the dumbbell somewhat. - 'Lainer - Thursday, Mar 22, 07 @ 8:55 pm: I think the growth now is moving even beyond the collar counties into places like Grundy, La Salle and De Kalb. Some residents of these areas may commute to Chicago or near suburbs (a 2-hour drive or less using I-80) but many others are commuting to places like Aurora and Joliet, which can be reached in 60 to 90 minutes. I grew up in La Salle County and in the last 15 years or so it’s practically become a collar county itself. The former suburbanites are moving out there to get away from the congestion, pricey real estate, etc. that has now moved into the “collars”. - muon - Friday, Mar 23, 07 @ 9:28 am: Another way to lok at the Census release is to project it forward to April 2010 when the next Census takes place. To the extent the estimates are valid it forecasts the relative shifts in political strength in the state. For Congress, its relatively safe to assume that Illinois loses a congressional seat. Downstate loses half a seat, the Collars (plus Kendall) gain half a seat, and Cook loses one seat. In the legislature, Downstate loses almost a Senate district, Cook loses two Senate districts, and the Collars pick up those losses. For regional issues, those shifts may make a difference. - chicago - Friday, Mar 23, 07 @ 9:45 am: Living under a political dictatorship is difficult and, unlike the poor Cubans, Chicagoans can flee Chicago and are doing so in droves. The rest of us are waiting for the dictator to die or get indicted and we know we have a long wait. It is not a racial issue it is a quality of life issue. Unless you have enough money to pay for all of the basic services the city does not provide such as transportation, education and security, you need to move to the suburbs to get them. I live in Lincoln Park one block from a city bus line that stops in front of my downtown office. Via car or taxi the door to door commute is less than 15 minutes. Via city bus the commute time is close to one hour. Why? The Mayor and his top deputies do not care about getting tax payers to work or any other aspects of their quality of life. Their interest is in staying in charge and doling out favors, jobs and city contracts. While waiting downtown for overcrowded buses that run on no schedule I can gaze at the beautiful flowers the mayor pays his cronies (through contracts) to plant and replant monthly and water weekly. When I am standing in the bus inching my way home I can look out the window at the repair crews who are continuously digging up and repaving the same streets. The public schools are terrible. The problem is not a lack of funding but rather an arrogant school administration that is beholden to the politically powerful teachers union not to students or taxpeyer parents. My father-in-law taught in the Chicago Public schools for more than 30 years. He drove 1 1/2 from his suburban home to get to the City school he taught at. I asked him why he didn’t just get a job at the school 2 blocks away from his house. He said once a teacher works for CPS he would never want to work for a suburban school district. He said that CPS supports their teachers 100%. It doesn’t matter if parents or students complain about you or even if the principal doesn’t like you; there is nothing they can do to get rid of you. In the suburbs you have to meet with parents and students and address their complaints. You have to follow your principal’s directions and you are not allowed to run your classroom as you want. Most people cannot afford the $8,000-$21,000 per student tuition charged by private or parochial schools (especially after paying an enormous mortgage on a modest home with no yard, and $15/day to park downtown). Since the mayor is also driving businesses from the city through high taxes and lack of transportation infrastructure, people can follow their jobs to the suburbs, get less expensive housing and quality public schools. - HappyToaster - Saturday, Mar 24, 07 @ 12:46 am: The current methodology clearly has undercount problems with certain populations. See the results of Census 2000 vs. estimates. California claims there is a million person shortage in its latest estimate. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.