* Dan Seals announced yesterday that he will run for Congress again next year. From Lynn Sweet…
A Democratic primary is shaping up in the north suburban 10th congressional district, where Dan Seals, the 2006 nominee, will have to defeat newcomer Jay Footlik, who served in the Clinton White House, for the nomination to run against Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R-Ill.).
Seals announced on Wednesday he will seek a rematch. In 2006, Seals — making his first run for office — gave Kirk a strong challenge, getting 47 percent of the vote to 53 percent for Kirk.
In the district with a large Jewish population, Seals said in a statement he expects support for Israel to be an issue in 2008 as it was in 2006.
* The Tribune has react and a bit of analysis…
Following Seals’ announcement, Kirk issued a statement outlining his efforts to address rising gas prices and dangerous imported toys, as well as dumping in Lake Michigan and economic development. […]
Campaign strategists for both parties expect Kirk’s seat, along with that of Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean, to be among the most hard-nosed races next year.
Bush adviser Karl Rove recently wrote a memo that Kirk’s seat was one of three of the nine Illinois congressional seats held by the GOP that the party needs to work hardest to protect in 2008.
* From Kirk’s announcement…
The differences between me and Congressman Kirk are clear. He has supported President Bush’s agenda and I do not. Congressional Quarterly reports that he has voted with the President almost 90 percent of the time.
Since the last election he has tried to reverse some of those key votes. He even went to the White House, as many papers reported, to tell President Bush that the war was hurting his reelection prospects. I couldn’t disagree more with this kind of leadership.
Congressman Kirk is putting politics before policy. On issues as critical as these we must have the courage of our convictions. His votes should be driven by what he feels is right, not what he feels is expedient.
the diffence between seals and Rep. Kirk are clear one lives in the district and is responsive to its needs. The other lives outside the district and is controlled by chicago machine politicans that dont give a damn about lake co. or the north suburbs they just want more power. Hired trucks in lake co if seals gets in.
Seals needs to stop being so arrogant and move into the district. At least act like he cares. He will say waht he thinks the voters want him to say. Kirk is already a moderate, Seals will continue to be appear as moderate as Kirk.
Kirk was always sort of tenuous up there, even after they moved his disrict further Northwest after the census. It is also one of the strangest districts politically. This could go either way at this point.
If he couldn’t win in 2006, he isn’t going to win in 2008. Run as the Anti-Bush all he wants, Bush isn’t on the ballot. The “bloom is off the rose”.
The Democrats own part of this war now as Congressional leaders. Finger pointing will no longer work. Excuses won’t either. Passing resolutions is meaningless. The Democrats promised, but hasn’t delivered.
In 2008 their national message will be different. Seals cannot expect lightening to strike twice. Kirk will win reelection in 2008.
you guys are absolutely correct. Running a second time as a challenger for the same office NEVER works. Just ask Melissa Bean.
Need I mention any more?
So endeth the lesson.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 12:30 pm:
Irish, Mark Kirk is no Phil Crane. Need I say more? Go to the back of the class.
Seals picked a really interesting time to announce, as the second quarter is about over, and his fundraising numbers will pale in comparison to Kirk’s, who has spent the first part of the year in fundraising overdrive. Now that he’s announced, the pundits will be watching closely.
Seals sent out his first major solicitation for funds in a letter dated June 11, practically begging for money by June 30th. There’s no way, even if the true believers send in the easy cash right away, that Seals will look respectable. Plus, with Footlik in the race, the big money will be on the sidelines until after the primary shakes out. Seals doesn’t look too bright so far.
Irishpirate: I agree. You seem to be the only blogger here (thus far today) who knows that district. All I meant (and you did not disagree with me) is if the election were today, it could go either way. We’ll see. As I stated previously, they moved him further Northwest due to the map, but it is no guarantee for him the way demographics are going. People do not “vote their pocketbook” as is wont to say. They vote their culture, and culturally, in that district, people are more and more Democratic, even if it goes against their personal economic interests.
whos they the democrats drew the congressional districts last time around. Kirk is doing a good job. If seals wants to run he can run his district may be run on an anti corruption platform his congreswomen is married to a convicted felon who steals money, but he dare not do that. If he wants to change things that would be a good idea for a start get the shankowsky criminal money out of congress
No the 10th is not as “Republican” as its long streak of GOP Congressional representation would indicate. From the looks of it, Cong. Kirk has thus far managed to keep up a patina of looking moderate but voting fairly conservative when the conservatives controlled the House. Since the Democratic takeover in the past few months Rep. Kirk has tracked leftward (including leading a group of Republican Congressmen worried about their day jobs to dress-down Pres. Bush over his Iraq “strategies” in recent weeks).
Go figure.
He’s a nice enough guy and a shrewd politician (he always seems to be able to get a media crew when he wants one)… but his finger-to-the-wind voting in the House may be catching up to him.
Apparently, Rob-N you haven’t been paying much attention to the debates if you think all of the GOP candidates for president are “clones” of Bush. Iraq is about the only issue that any of them agree with Bush on, and not all of them agree with Bush there.
BTW– “Footlik” just doesn’t put you in mind of a strong-willed, independent-minded Representative.
fed up wrote, “the diffence between seals and Rep. Kirk are clear one lives in the district and is responsive to its needs. The other lives outside the district and is controlled by chicago machine politicans that dont give a damn about lake co. or the north suburbs they just want more power.”
Did somebody pay you to write that?
If Rep. Kirk has been so “responsive” could you please let me know how many town hall meetings he’s had in the district over the course of his time in office? And, seeing as how the district is a moderate one and he had been voting relatively conservatively in comparison (when Denny Hastert was Speaker), how is that “responsive”?
Mr. Seals is a few blocks from the 10th. He knows the district as well as anyone. What a load of baloney ‘fed up’. And what is your citation for the ad hominem attack that he’s controlled by anyone (let alone Chicago machine Democrats)? That smear only gets opponents so far in the ‘burbs these days — just ask all the new state Senators and Rep. Bean.
- Eighth District - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:48 pm:
Team America: You are correct. Mark Kirk is no Phil Crane. And never will be. Phil Crane was a statesman, not a politician.
Kirk is responsive - he is here all the time and does tele-town hall meetings that thousands participate in. And he is moderate, voting for stem cell research, a primary sponser of expanded hate crime legislation and really strong on the environment - especially lake michigan.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 3:29 pm:
Eighth Dist.- then I wish Crane had taken the statesman’s path and let someone else in to run against Bean. He didn’t run a good campaign and sucked away a ton of resources that could have been better spent elsewhere.
Greg: Opensecrets. Last time I tried I was able to access records for legislators. Also, the Illinois Board of Elections has the D-2 reports.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 10:56 pm:
The status of our one-party domination of state government, and the resulting fallout, may help Mr. Kirk more than anything else, especially among independents.
Hoosier Daddy wrote: “Apparently, Rob-N you haven’t been paying much attention to the debates if you think all of the GOP candidates for president are “clones” of Bush. Iraq is about the only issue that any of them agree with Bush on, and not all of them agree with Bush there.”
Apparently, Hoosier Daddy, you didn’t pay attention to what I wrote.
I said the serious candidates (meaning the ones in the 1st tier) and I said they were clones “esp. on Iraq”, just as you essentially also wrote. (Of those top tier guys, McCain deviates the most from Bush in that he actually wants more, but still not enough, troops sent to Iraq. Either we need to send roughly 500,000 troops, if not more, or we need a strategic redeployment to stop putting our troops in the role of catalysts for the Iraqi civil war. None of the GOP leading candidates is suggesting either option — just like Bush.)
The Green Party, now “established” under IL election law, is also running a candidate in the 10th–veteran Navy officer and peace activist David Kalbfleisch. If you are looking for another option in 2008, check out his website:
- fed up - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 10:28 am:
the diffence between seals and Rep. Kirk are clear one lives in the district and is responsive to its needs. The other lives outside the district and is controlled by chicago machine politicans that dont give a damn about lake co. or the north suburbs they just want more power. Hired trucks in lake co if seals gets in.
- Wumpus - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 10:50 am:
Seals needs to stop being so arrogant and move into the district. At least act like he cares. He will say waht he thinks the voters want him to say. Kirk is already a moderate, Seals will continue to be appear as moderate as Kirk.
- Reality - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 11:02 am:
Kirk was always sort of tenuous up there, even after they moved his disrict further Northwest after the census. It is also one of the strangest districts politically. This could go either way at this point.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 11:46 am:
If he couldn’t win in 2006, he isn’t going to win in 2008. Run as the Anti-Bush all he wants, Bush isn’t on the ballot. The “bloom is off the rose”.
The Democrats own part of this war now as Congressional leaders. Finger pointing will no longer work. Excuses won’t either. Passing resolutions is meaningless. The Democrats promised, but hasn’t delivered.
In 2008 their national message will be different. Seals cannot expect lightening to strike twice. Kirk will win reelection in 2008.
- irishpirate - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 11:54 am:
Yeah,
you guys are absolutely correct. Running a second time as a challenger for the same office NEVER works. Just ask Melissa Bean.
Need I mention any more?
So endeth the lesson.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 12:30 pm:
Irish, Mark Kirk is no Phil Crane. Need I say more? Go to the back of the class.
Seals picked a really interesting time to announce, as the second quarter is about over, and his fundraising numbers will pale in comparison to Kirk’s, who has spent the first part of the year in fundraising overdrive. Now that he’s announced, the pundits will be watching closely.
Seals sent out his first major solicitation for funds in a letter dated June 11, practically begging for money by June 30th. There’s no way, even if the true believers send in the easy cash right away, that Seals will look respectable. Plus, with Footlik in the race, the big money will be on the sidelines until after the primary shakes out. Seals doesn’t look too bright so far.
- Paying Attention - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 1:24 pm:
Seals, a moderate? He can’t be a moderate if he’s standing next to and asking for help from Durbin and Obama. That tells me everything I need to know.
- irishpirate - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 1:30 pm:
The district is not as “republican” as some of you would like. I also suspect 2008 is gonna be a real bad Republican year.
Time will tell. I happen to think Kirk is one of the better Republicans in Illinois politics. That ain’t saying much.
It is like saying Vallas or Poshard is better than the current crop on Democrats in power.
Ain’t much competition.
- Reality - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 1:52 pm:
Irishpirate: I agree. You seem to be the only blogger here (thus far today) who knows that district. All I meant (and you did not disagree with me) is if the election were today, it could go either way. We’ll see. As I stated previously, they moved him further Northwest due to the map, but it is no guarantee for him the way demographics are going. People do not “vote their pocketbook” as is wont to say. They vote their culture, and culturally, in that district, people are more and more Democratic, even if it goes against their personal economic interests.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:18 pm:
whos they the democrats drew the congressional districts last time around. Kirk is doing a good job. If seals wants to run he can run his district may be run on an anti corruption platform his congreswomen is married to a convicted felon who steals money, but he dare not do that. If he wants to change things that would be a good idea for a start get the shankowsky criminal money out of congress
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:29 pm:
Rich Miller wrote: “From Kirk’s announcement…”
Shouldn’t that read: ‘From Seals’ announcement…”?
No the 10th is not as “Republican” as its long streak of GOP Congressional representation would indicate. From the looks of it, Cong. Kirk has thus far managed to keep up a patina of looking moderate but voting fairly conservative when the conservatives controlled the House. Since the Democratic takeover in the past few months Rep. Kirk has tracked leftward (including leading a group of Republican Congressmen worried about their day jobs to dress-down Pres. Bush over his Iraq “strategies” in recent weeks).
Go figure.
He’s a nice enough guy and a shrewd politician (he always seems to be able to get a media crew when he wants one)… but his finger-to-the-wind voting in the House may be catching up to him.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:31 pm:
VanillaMan said, “Run as the Anti-Bush all he wants, Bush isn’t on the ballot.”
…No, but every single one of the serious Republican candidates for president is a clone of Bush (esp. on Iraq).
Like 2006, 2008 will be a vote for more-of-the-same or enough-is-enough.
- HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:38 pm:
Apparently, Rob-N you haven’t been paying much attention to the debates if you think all of the GOP candidates for president are “clones” of Bush. Iraq is about the only issue that any of them agree with Bush on, and not all of them agree with Bush there.
BTW– “Footlik” just doesn’t put you in mind of a strong-willed, independent-minded Representative.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:39 pm:
fed up wrote, “the diffence between seals and Rep. Kirk are clear one lives in the district and is responsive to its needs. The other lives outside the district and is controlled by chicago machine politicans that dont give a damn about lake co. or the north suburbs they just want more power.”
Did somebody pay you to write that?
If Rep. Kirk has been so “responsive” could you please let me know how many town hall meetings he’s had in the district over the course of his time in office? And, seeing as how the district is a moderate one and he had been voting relatively conservatively in comparison (when Denny Hastert was Speaker), how is that “responsive”?
Mr. Seals is a few blocks from the 10th. He knows the district as well as anyone. What a load of baloney ‘fed up’. And what is your citation for the ad hominem attack that he’s controlled by anyone (let alone Chicago machine Democrats)? That smear only gets opponents so far in the ‘burbs these days — just ask all the new state Senators and Rep. Bean.
- Eighth District - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 2:48 pm:
Team America: You are correct. Mark Kirk is no Phil Crane. And never will be. Phil Crane was a statesman, not a politician.
- 10th Indy - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 3:25 pm:
Kirk is responsive - he is here all the time and does tele-town hall meetings that thousands participate in. And he is moderate, voting for stem cell research, a primary sponser of expanded hate crime legislation and really strong on the environment - especially lake michigan.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 3:29 pm:
Eighth Dist.- then I wish Crane had taken the statesman’s path and let someone else in to run against Bean. He didn’t run a good campaign and sucked away a ton of resources that could have been better spent elsewhere.
- Greg - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 3:54 pm:
Anyone know where I can look up legislators’ campaign funding sources? Like an opensecrets but for Illinois?
- HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 4:35 pm:
Greg: Opensecrets. Last time I tried I was able to access records for legislators. Also, the Illinois Board of Elections has the D-2 reports.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jun 21, 07 @ 10:56 pm:
The status of our one-party domination of state government, and the resulting fallout, may help Mr. Kirk more than anything else, especially among independents.
- Rob_N - Friday, Jun 22, 07 @ 12:23 am:
Hoosier Daddy wrote: “Apparently, Rob-N you haven’t been paying much attention to the debates if you think all of the GOP candidates for president are “clones” of Bush. Iraq is about the only issue that any of them agree with Bush on, and not all of them agree with Bush there.”
Apparently, Hoosier Daddy, you didn’t pay attention to what I wrote.
I said the serious candidates (meaning the ones in the 1st tier) and I said they were clones “esp. on Iraq”, just as you essentially also wrote. (Of those top tier guys, McCain deviates the most from Bush in that he actually wants more, but still not enough, troops sent to Iraq. Either we need to send roughly 500,000 troops, if not more, or we need a strategic redeployment to stop putting our troops in the role of catalysts for the Iraqi civil war. None of the GOP leading candidates is suggesting either option — just like Bush.)
Sheesh.
- Real Change in 2008 - Thursday, Jul 5, 07 @ 11:39 pm:
The Green Party, now “established” under IL election law, is also running a candidate in the 10th–veteran Navy officer and peace activist David Kalbfleisch. If you are looking for another option in 2008, check out his website:
www.electdave.org