20 Comments - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 9:35 am: I’d say he won’t get much help until he can raise a quarter of a million on his own. That district will probably stay with Weller until the next round of redistricting. - Fire Ron Guenther - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 9:42 am: Rahm didn’t do much to help Pavich last time out, I don’t see why this will be any different when Rahm probably thinks LaHood’s seat is a better chance for a Dem pickup. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 9:43 am: While Weller has overstayed his welcome with voters, and his freshness date expired around the time he married a dictator’s daughter, voters are not ready to simply dump him for a university administrator. It is good for Democrats to get a candidate with a background like Mr. Weber’s. Democrats love university professors and administrators, so Mr. Weber’s background should get Democrats all woozy and giddy with excitement. But Mr. Weber will not find the average voter swooning to him because of his background. Voters like candidates they can relate to. Traditionally, they are suspicious to those they believe got their life knowledge from books. So, Mr. Weber may find enough Democratic voters who will fall in line to support him and carry the District, he will need all of them to do it. Mr. Weber will have to prove that he is not just an egghead in an ivory tower. That, after all, is how Mr. Weller should paint Mr. Weber. - Captain America - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 10:24 am: Personally, I think Weller is ripe for the plucking. But Van Man is correct in observing that there is a strong undercurrent of anti-intellectualism in American politics. - grand old partisan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 10:26 am: I don’t know what it’s like in Bloomington or Kankakee, but where I live, the average voter couldn’t tell you the name of the president (let along vice president) of the local community college if their life depended on it. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 10:34 am: Weller will be protected when the next redistricting meetings occur. He would need to be challenged by someone like Debbie Halvorson, Julie Hamos or Careen Gordon to be taken down anytime soon. Pavich had some decent credentials and he still flamed out. Rahm Emanuel will not sink much money into this race. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 10:37 am: TS, I agree with most of what you wrote except the redistricting part. If the Dems are in control, you can say goodbye to Jerry Weller’s hold on that seat. - JonShibleyFan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 11:02 am: Yes, indeedy, the old ivory tower. Of the community college. What with their high falutin’ continuing education classes and their elitist admittance policies… Come on. Community colleges are an invaluable resource that serve a broad community. They are certainly not paragons of intellectual elitism. Step away from the cheap conventional wisdom for a second. Weber has little chance - but it isn’t because he’s a community college administrator for heaven’s sake. - blogman - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 11:42 am: Last week, Joliet City councilman Brophy, who had said he was running, decided not to run saying the political winds were changing. Maybe Rahm is pushing this guy to take Weller out. It will take a lot of $ to do it. - Fan of the Game - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 12:33 pm: JonShibleyFan, Your first paragraph made me laugh and laugh. Spot on, Sir! - Bakersfield - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 3:10 pm: The DCCC will pick the battles they can win and this is probably not one of them, not until Weller retires or is redistricted out, at least. There is a winnable open seat next to this district, a potential pick-up in Kirk’s seat, and a swing seat the HAVE to keep with Melissa Bean. This guy’s best chance is that enough Palm Beach voters move into the district and end up voting for Jerry Weber instead of Jerry Weller. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 4:45 pm: Rich, if Dems are in control, either LaHood’s, Shimkus’ or Johnson’s seat will go by the wayside. If the GOP is in control, I think Jerry Costello’s seat will be in jeopardy. As good as Costello is, a population shift could hurt his chances, and he will be older and perhaps less apt to care at that point. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 5:11 pm: TS–what I would do were I the Dems is bury as many downstate votes into Shimkus’s and Johnson’s districts as I could. That makes 11 and 18 as potential pick-ups and then some moving around with 6, 13, 14 and 16 means at least another seat plus making Bean safe(r). Weller has the unfortunate situation of being not liked in Springfield on top of everything else. It doesn’t go to the flip of the coin if the Lege can agree on a remap and Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate and a Democratic Governor would mean Weller’s gone in the 2012 election. - JolietJake - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 5:23 pm: For the past 13 years I have been continually astonished that Weller keeps being elected and re-elected. I recall C.D. 11 was briefly on Bob Novak’s list of potential Dem. pickups for 2006 but the Dems never really funded Pavich. Perhaps Dems may have another shot in 2008 but I agree with many of the previous posters, Weller is safe until redistricting. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 8:46 pm: Arch, I agree. But there will be a newby in the 18th CD, which means you will see the 18th CD merged into the 15th CD. It will also be interesting to see if Phil Hare gets along with everyone and if a Dem-controlled Illinois would protect that ridiculous 17th CD. He could wind up being the next David Phelps. Redistricting is a mess. We need a better way of drawing districts. Voters don’t like it. - Squideshi - Tuesday, Aug 21, 07 @ 11:26 pm: Actually there will be a three-way race in this congressional district. All three established parties are fielding candidates. Jason Wallace, an Iraq War veteran, is seeking the nomination of the Green Party for this seat; so it’s actually Wallace (G) vs. Weber (D) vs. Weller (R). In fact, Wallace is part of a developing coordinated campaign of Green candidates for Congress, including David Kalbfleisch in 10th, Alan Augustson in the 5th, and Steve Alesch in the 13th. I’ve heard that we should expect a good deal more Green candidates too. Incidentally, Weber is looking for a way to work with the Green Party and may be invited to a meeting of the Will County Green Party in the near future. - The Blogger Formerly Known As Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 22, 07 @ 6:28 am: Squid, enjoy your green dreams, but remember: the Green Party is like a watermelon: green on the outside, red on the inside. - Squideshi - Wednesday, Aug 22, 07 @ 6:36 am: “Squid, enjoy your green dreams, but remember: the Green Party is like a watermelon: green on the outside, red on the inside.” Let’s take a look at the Green Party’s national platform to see if this statement has any merit whatsoever. In part, the platform provides: “We call for an economic system that is based on a combination of private businesses, decentralized democratic cooperatives, publicly owned enterprises, and alternative economic structures. Collectively, this system puts human and ecological needs alongside profits to measure success, and maintains accountability to communities.” “Community-based economics constitutes an alternative to both corporate capitalism and state socialism. It values diversity and decentralization.” “Greens support small business, responsible stakeholder capitalism, and broad and diverse forms of economic cooperation. We argue that economic diversity is more responsive than big business to the needs of diverse human populations.” “Small business and the self-employed, in particular, should not be penalized by a tax system that benefits those who can influence the legislative tax committees for breaks and subsidies.” “Aiming for revenue neutrality in the tax changes. We are not proposing a bigger overall role for government. However, there are some situations where certain priority activities are under-funded.” “The Green economic model is about true prosperity - Green means prosperity. Our goal is to go beyond the dedicated good work being done by many companies (referred to as “socially responsible business”) and to present new ways of seeing how business can help create a sustainable world, while surviving in a competitive business climate.” “We believe that conservation should be profitable, and employment should be creative, meaningful and fairly compensated.” “The tax system needs a major overhaul to favor the legitimate and critical needs of the small business community.” “Government should reduce unnecessary restrictions, fees, and bureaucracy.” “One-stop offices should be established by government to assist individuals who want to change careers or go into business for the first time.” “Home-based and neighborhood-based businesses should be assisted by forward-looking planning, not hurt by out-of-date zoning ordinances. Telecommuting and home offices should be aided, not hindered, by government.” “Reducing taxes on labor. This will make labor more competitive with energy and capital investment.” “Supporting small business by reducing tax, fee and bureaucratic burdens. The majority of new jobs today are created by small businesses.” Rich, I move for Summary Judgement. Do I win? - grand old partisan - Wednesday, Aug 22, 07 @ 8:57 am: JolietJake - Pavich’s problem wasn’t lack of funding. In a heavily anti-GOP incumbent climate, he raised and spent twice as much as Weller’s 04 opponent, while Weller spent about the same amount. The result: only a 4 point gain against Weller from 04 to 06, which is the same difference that LaHood saw, and his 06 opponent didn’t even file an FEC report! Perhaps a better explaination is that Pavich was a bad candidate who only did as “well” as he did because of the anti-GOP climate, and would have lost even if he matched Weller dollar-for-dollar, or maybe it’s even that Weller really is that well-like by his constituents. I think it’s a combination of the two, personally. - Squideshi - Wednesday, Aug 22, 07 @ 12:27 pm: Weller is DEFINATELY NOT well liked by his constituents. He doesn’t even like to talk to his constituents. Go check out his website and tell me if you can find a phone number anywhere. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.