Early primary impact
Tuesday, Sep 11, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If the Politico had more analytical stories like this one, I might read it more often. A well-done story on the impact of the early primaries is like finding a diamond in a pig pen…
“It’s very conceivable people will go door-knocking around Christmas break,” said Simon Behrmann, spokesman for Jay Footlik, a Democrat seeking the nomination against Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). “This is definitely something we’ve never seen here in Illinois.” […]
Christine Dudley, the former executive director of the Illinois Republican Party, said it also will be a challenge for congressional candidates to compete for the voters’ attention during a period that is normally dominated by sports. […]
“You’ll be seeing lots of Christmas cards with veiled political messages,” said Dudley. “It’s distracting, and in this media market, people care a lot more about sports than they do about politics.”
The nine-month gap between the primaries and the November election also poses a challenge to many campaigns. One Illinois Democratic campaign manager predicted that he would have to lay off some staff after the primary.
“It puts a premium on doing the work on a campaign much earlier,” the operative said. “I can’t keep my organizers for nine months. There’s not enough news … to pay salaries.”
This uncertain terrain could have far-reaching effects, as Illinois is hosting its share of competitive primaries that could affect the balance of power in the House.
* Could the February primary hurt campaign fundraising for down-ballot candidates?
“Maybe it’s an old wives’ tale, but people usually follow it - usually during that period of time, people are more interested in using their funds for Christmas, for the holidays,” [Kane County State’s Attorney John Barsanti] said.
* The state’s fundraising disclosure calendar has been adjusted to fit the new reality…
Normally, fundraising committees have to submit two campaign finance reports before each primary. The regular semi-annual report is due Jan. 31 and the pre-election report is due 30 days before the election.
As that pre-election report would be due Jan. 5, the measure also combined those two reports into one report, due Jan. 20. This would only take place in even-numbered years.
* This article points out other hurdles…
*Illinois (Feb. 5). Cook County needs to train 12,000 poll workers in January, when many retirees have left for Florida or other warm areas. In Rock Island County, about 80% of the 325 poll workers usually are seniors. “We hope we won’t be tearing around the day before the election just trying to find somebody who can fog a mirror,” County Clerk Richard Leibovitz says.
* And…
* Mailing absentee ballots. The ballots, which are sent to as many as 6 million military and civilian voters overseas, must be mailed 45 days before the elections. In states holding early primaries, that could mean during the holidays, when mail delivery is slow, increasing the potential for disenfranchising voters, says Brad Bryant of Kansas, president of the National Association of State Election Directors.
* Negotiating bad weather. Earlier primaries boost the chance of snow and ice, which could make it tough to open, supply and staff polling places. Several cold-weather states are moving their elections into midwinter, including Illinois, New Jersey and New York.
* As Kate Clements points out, we’re not alone…
Twenty states, including Illinois, have either adopted a Feb. 5 primary date or are considering doing so.
* And that has forced presidential candidates to adjust, as this admittedly outdated NY Times story attests…
Aides to the candidates said they were debating whether the changes would mean that the nominations would effectively be settled on Feb. 5, by which point easily 50 percent of the delegates are likely to have been chosen, or whether a few strong candidates would divide the Feb. 5 take, forcing the campaign to stretch on for months. That could, oddly enough, make those fewer states sticking to later primaries vital players in the election cycle.
The changes are forcing candidates to decide whether Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with contests before Feb. 5, will become more influential as contenders look for early victories to give them momentum. And with as many as 23 states voting on a single day — more states than are typically considered competitive in a general election — candidates must decide which ones to ignore, given the demands on their time and bank accounts. […]
For Democrats, the prospect of a mega-primary has created a new calculation about the importance of black voters, already a constituency being fiercely courted by Mr. Obama, who is seeking to become the nation’s first black president, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. There are hardly any black voters in Iowa and New Hampshire; by contrast, they could play an important role in California, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey and New York.
- Mr. W.T.Rush - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 8:49 am:
Anyone planning to check the rumor about BlunderBloyBlaggo fly around on capital projects? This follows his meeting with VandaliaFrank and following the bright ball for 4 hours.
- Tristan - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 8:53 am:
Oh poo-poo….we did this to help Obama.
- Rob_N - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 9:14 am:
The siren call of the presidential races (x20) is also sucking up money that would otherwise go to lower-level races; especially challengers.
- bored now - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 9:22 am:
i thought the moving up of the primary to severe winter weather was the holy grail of the machine for years (decades?). precinct captain’s weather, they call it (for a reason). for whatever reason, we’ve had more mild march’s, which didn’t help. i have said that obama was the excuse, the opportunity, to do what they already wanted to do…
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 9:41 am:
Four presidential candidates are seeking the Green Party’s nomination in Illinois, there is an effort to draft Cynthia McKinney, who has shown some interest; and I have heard that Ralph Nader is considering running again.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 9:58 am:
Any political party that wishes to run the risk of nominating a candidate a year before the General Election may do so at their own risk.
By setting the primaries so early, both parties expose themselves for the next eight months for another political party to catch the public’s imagination. Or, they run the risk of having their nominee exposed to news elements, or even the Grim Reaper and crashing month before Election Day.
The first time one of the major party nominees does this, this entire silly season for early primaries will fall out of fashion.
Why doesn’t Illinois hold it’s future primaries in July - right before the conventions, forcing both parties to justify their front runners? Perhaps instead of a simple majority, our primary can require a win by 15% over the runner up?
Instead of chasing snowflakes, lets consider the purpose of primaries - getting the strongest candidates. There is no reason to believe that the candidates winning in January or February will be the winners in November. So, Illinois should have a 15% primary hurdle before the nominating conventions to test these early winners and see if they still have the stuff.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:02 am:
===Why doesn’t Illinois hold it’s future primaries in July - right before the conventions, forcing both parties to justify their front runners?===
Because by then the nomination process is long over and nobody cares.
Plus, that would be terrible for my business. I’m against it. lol
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:07 am:
Interestingly, I don’t think that the primary has much of any effect on the Green Party’s nomination, because I don’t believe that the state can force the party’s delegates to vote any certain way at the national nominating convention. It’s the best of both worlds–an early primary AND the ability to later nominate whoever we want.
- Been out in the cold before - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:17 am:
In Chicago, us city door knockers have been going out in the cold around Christmas time every four years as the non-partisan mayoral and aldermanic races are held in February. That being said, it is pretty much a waste of time knocking on doors before Christmas. But right afterwards many people have the week off and you can find them at home on the weekdays. Also, it is a great time to make sure the college kids get their absentee ballot applications so they don’t get left out. With early voting, some of those kids can even vote before they go back to school.
Before Christmas the best thing a candidate can do is to go and drink eggnog at as many Christmas parties as he can stomach.
- Truthful James - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:30 am:
What we should do is schedule the primaries for the next biennial election in the April following the last general election.
That is, of course ridiculous, but only slightly more that moving the primary dates up. Elections have become radically more expensive, when we should have been minimizing the cost of campaigning and thus the amount of money it takes to buy a candidate.
Unfortunately, among the leading candidates there is not a dime’s worth of difference, not a new policy proposed, not a set of planks to make a platform.
And perhaps on both sides of the aisle — excepting Bill Richardson and Ron Paul.
Me-too ism reigns, and anyone with new and/or better ideas can’t get funded.
2008 will be perhaps the most important election we have had since 1948, when isue meant something and we decided as a country to internationalize ourselves to stop the spread of communism and left the isolationist mood which despite winning World War II had a not inconsequential following.
There are major issues out there on which individual candidates can take stands: immigration; energy development; homeland security; overseas deployments; imports; taxes.
The last has the greatest heat and the least light in the debates. Tax burden is the key to job development
There is an imbalance between the time alloted to raise issues, select a candidate, write a platform.
The last is the most important for the race and the voters, and the time between the convention and the election is about right.
With today’s immediate media we should have foreshortened the period between the primaries and the convention. So what happens if a single candidate hold a majority of the delegate votes? Do we write the platform then and there and use the Convention as a vacation place where the Veep Candidate can be named? After all the Single Candidate will be already running on a platform.
And if there are two or more winners, none with a majority, what will they day all spring and into the summer that has not been said before?
No, these best that could have been done was to put all the primaries back to the April election date which exists in nearly every state for local elections and for State primaries.
But that would have made sense. Right now the leading candidate in both parties is General Apathy — at last in the voters, not in the political structure.
- keep up with the jones - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:38 am:
Blago has not yet signed Sb662 which contains much needed language changes for election officials. But why hurry Blago; petitions are already out and the election changes are not important to you like everything else.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:40 am:
I support holding primaries in August. It would be much better for the voters.
It’s amazing that political consultants and campaign wonks wonder why the electorate don’t pay attention. Could it be that after years of disenfranchisement the public as a whole just don’t care about an eight-to-night month general election campaign? The thought of some campaign calling my house or littering my front door with fliers around Christmas time infuriates me - and I love politics.
I do agree with the anonymous campaign manager: extended campaigns will only make the need for dollars greater. People are already upset with the role money plays in politics and elections, and an extended primary period could possible exacerbate the issue. How do you keep paying for staff, signs, robocalls, mailers, handouts, etc. when you have a nine-month process? This could keep qualified, competent candidates from running.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:42 am:
===years of disenfranchisement===
Huh?
- Dan Vock - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:54 am:
Nice of the Politico to catch up.
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=237438
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:56 am:
Dan, you guys should include Illinois in more of your stories. I’d see them then.
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 10:56 am:
The early primaries only make sense in the context that other states are earlier and a lot of the later voting states finally got tired of being essentially left out of the candidate selection process. Take Iowa and New Hampshire (please), they are fighting tooth and nail to hang onto their first in the nation status because of two things–the outsized (for their populations) political influence it gives them and, probably even more importantly, the tremendous amounts of $$$ they rake in from the reporters, candidates, advisers, et al that flock to them every 4 years. It has been inequitable for a long time, but somehow this year the other states started to notice it and to take action. If this presidential election follows the script from past elections (candidates largely decided by early states), I predict more calendar madness in 2012 or a different system put in place to select a candidate.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 11:28 am:
Disenchantment. Disenfranchisement. Whatever.
Rich, I truly believe people don’t care. And who can blame them? The last three gubernatorial elections have been very expensive, and the current presidential election cylce is set to shatter all spending records.
As the public becomes more privy to the dirty money involved in politics - legal or not - the Regular Joe seems to drift off and not pay attention. It’s a shame people don’t pay as much attention or get as involved as they could be, but in an open democracy you cannot force the vote or force people to care about public policy or government.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 11:43 am:
That’s a huge difference. Taking someone’s right to vote away from them is a lot different than a disenchanted voter.
- hey guv - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 2:04 pm:
Please Governor sined SB662 and help the county clerks and other election staffs operate the primary better.
- Dan Vock - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 2:55 pm:
We try, we try.
- muon - Tuesday, Sep 11, 07 @ 8:31 pm:
I’d second Team Sleep on the August primary. Many states separate their presidential delegate selection from the primaries for state and federal candidates. A 10 week window for the campaign from primary to election is already used for IL municipal races (incl. Chicago) and could work as well for other offices.