Just in case you want to talk about tonight’s results.
*** Watch live coverage on MSNBC or CNN or follow it on Fox. ***
*** Results are here ***
*** 9:33 pm *** NBC projects Hillary Clinton is the winner. It’s about time. She’s been ahead all night by 4 to 5,000 votes.
*** 8:49 pm *** Hotline blog…
Exit polls of the NH Dem primary show a 39%-39% tie between HRC and Obama, with Edwards at 16%.
*** 8:35 pm *** I’m getting word from the Obama campaign that college towns and other areas that favor their candidate have not yet been tallied, while Manchester (which Clinton dominates) has been mostly counted.
Also, from MSNBC, of those who made up their minds in the past three days…
Obama: 39
Clinton: 38
*** 8:26 pm *** From CNN…
Forty-five percent of female Democratic primary voters picked Clinton, compared to 36 percent who went for Obama
Age is also playing a big factor. Older voters are overwhelmingly outnumbering younger voters, a proportion that is clearly benefiting Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters are over the age of 40, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton over Obama.
*** 7:54 pm *** The Nation…
Written off just hours ago as a political “dead woman walking,” Hillary Clinton is running far better than expected in early results and exit polls from the critical first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary. […]
Exit polling shows that, while young voters came out in big numbers, older voters — especially women over 50 — came out in far higher than expected numbers.
*** 7:02 pm - MSNBC just claimed the Dem primary race is “too close to call” judging by exit polls and current results. ***
From Fox News…
Early exit polling of Republicans showed McCain with 35 percent compared to 30 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Mike Huckabee. Of those voting in the Democratic primary, 39 percent were going for Obama, while 34 percent were going for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards was at 18 percent.
CNN…
Self-styled independents, who made up 43 percent of all voters polled, said they voted for Obama by a margin of 45 percent to 26 percent for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama’s chief rival.
* 5:19 pm - CNN is starting to get exit poll results…
New Hampshire Republican primary voters
Should the next president:
Generally continue George W. Bush’s policies – 18 percent
Change to more conservative policies – 51 percent
Change to less conservative policies – 24 percent
And this…
Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they settled on a candidate on Election Day.
One more on exit polling…
Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over four in 10 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are independents, compared with 48 percent in 2004 and a record 50 percent in 1992.
In the Republican primary, preliminary results indicate again that about four in 10 are independents, similar to the previous high of 42 percent in 2000.
Preliminary exit poll results indicate that more than half of voters in the Democratic primary are saying they’re most interested in a candidate who can bring about needed change — a mantle all the candidates have been reaching for since the Iowa caucuses..
- GoBearsss - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 5:35 pm:
I recommend not following it on Fox.
Thanks.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 5:35 pm:
LOL
- Spicy Pickle - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 5:41 pm:
I recommend not following it on CNN or MSNBC. Olbermann has gone insane (he should go back to ESPN) and CNN doesn’t care about anything.
- A Citizen - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 5:46 pm:
Look for a Press Release from Blags that he is conceding the primary in New Hampshire to Obama.
- Bill - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 6:01 pm:
You can put it in the board…….YESSSSSS!
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 6:29 pm:
Bill,
What numbers are you looking at? The ABC #s show a tight race as of right now. I’m pulling for Obama, but I guess we’ll see.
- plutocrat03 - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 6:54 pm:
Interesting factoid regarding 51% want the next president to have MORE conservative policies than W.
Is there a single democratic candidate who would be more conservative?
Seems to be some sort of disconnect.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 6:55 pm:
it’s 51 percent of repub voters.
- GoBearsss - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 7:00 pm:
Yea - so only half of republicans want someone more conservative.
- Bookworm - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 7:07 pm:
51 percent of Republicans want someone “more conservative” in what sense? I am guessing “more conservative” in this context means economically — which translates to “tougher on illegal immigration, more restrained on taxes and government spending, and more of a strict constructionist on constitutional matters.”
- GoBearsss - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 7:14 pm:
that’s the problem with the poll Bookworm - it leaves people to guess.
- bored now - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 7:21 pm:
“The polling hours have been extended in several towns in NH as lines of voters are still long.”
- Crimefighter - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:10 pm:
Tom Brokaw is back! MSNBC
- Crimefighter - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:14 pm:
Well there is NO CLEAR frontrunner…Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins Wyoming, now McCain gets New Hampshire. Clinton gets New Hampshire, Obama gets Iowa. Super Duper Tuesday is most likely gonna be when this gets settled now.
- He makes Ryan look like a Saint - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:24 pm:
Clinton’s new song “There’s a tear in my beer….”
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:40 pm:
This is New Hampshire.Even the Republicans anymore are liberals on that turf.
The real Republican primary begins after New Hampshire. Without Independents there never was a McCain.
I understand the old lady theory but these are strange early returns. Some of the morning shows were talking about the possible establishment backlash. But this soon??
Every poll had Obama with a double digit lead the last two days.
Thats a lot of little old ladies.
- Pat collins - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:42 pm:
Comeback Kid, part II?
- Don't say my name Tony - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:45 pm:
***8:37*** from ABC - real data, not speculation.
Clinton 49,719 40%
Obama 45,383 36%
- Old Elephant - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:49 pm:
Lots of sour grapes already on the posts. I expect a lot more.
Give Clinton and McCain the credit they’ve earned. They are both winning the first contest where people actually vote.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:52 pm:
DSMNT, it’s tightened up considerbably since then. 2 point race at this moment.
- The 'Broken Heart' of Rogers Park - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:54 pm:
The pundits really screwed this one up. I’m sure Rich will tear into them tomorrow for being clueless.
- Loop Lady - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:59 pm:
yesss!! The fat lady aint close to singin’ yet…HRC is a fighter…things will be bumpy ‘tween she and BO until 2/5…
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 8:59 pm:
It wasn’t the pundits, it was the pollsters. But even they really aren’t totally to blame. It’s really tough to detect a 24-hour surge.
- In the Land of Silos and Cows... - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:15 pm:
Rich … just a thought … a high voting area expecting big numbers for Obama has not been reported … most of Clinton’s strongholds are in … David Axelrod is from Chicago … coincidence?
- Pat collins - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:16 pm:
But we all know how this will be spun. Even if the O squeaks out a win.
And who’s the master (mistress?) of spinning?
Team Clinton
- In the Land of Silos and Cows... - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:20 pm:
and … the Master Media of Axelrod will make sure that it just so happens at 3 minutes after 11 east coast time, 10 central, Obama will be in front of those cameras to get that wonderful nightly news exposure, dropping in for those local stations to keep Obama rolling…
- HoosierDaddy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:23 pm:
If you think it’s fun to watch the numbers roll, go to the Washington Post’s site. It shows EVERYBODY on the ballot. As a fun little aside, it shows our own John Cox running about 4 votes ahead of a guy that calls himself “Vermin Supreme”. LOL!
- Kiyoshi Martinez - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:34 pm:
AP is calling it for Hillary Clinton.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:36 pm:
I just got out of Black Helicopter and I’m telling you people, Ron Paul was robbed. Robbed I say.
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:39 pm:
Ricardo, perhaps a bit premature, but here is a good question o fthe day (IMHO).
If Barack wins the presidency, who shoul dreplace him in the senate? I hope he does not win, but still.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:41 pm:
Wumpus, we did that last year. lol
- Thinking without the box - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 9:59 pm:
Hillary better drink all of her champaign tonight cause she won’t need it in the next primaries. A 3% win is hardly enough to convince her contibutors that she can win. Obama has more charisma in his little finger then she has in her whole body and I don’t even like Obama.
- Old Elephant - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:00 pm:
Anon 9:36 — you’re showing your own ignorance. Neither Ron Paul nor his supporters are “black helicopter tin-foil hat” types.
Read up on the guy and his supporters — most are classic civil libertarians. They tend to be young and may not always be the most sophisticated, but they have more in common with Obama’s young supporters (although they are usually much brighter and better students) than with the wing-nuts.
- In the Land of Silos and Cows... - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:01 pm:
local news starts … and Obama is still speaking …you have to acknowledge even in a loss, his crew knows what to do to keep their guy out there first
- Randall Sherman - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:15 pm:
I am a bit curious about figures for early voting. Since this was a primary, I assume that there was an opportunity for voters to cast their ballots early. If that was the case, perhaps some of Sen. Clinton’s 4,000+ margin came from those casting their ballots BEFORE the Iowa caucus, when it was thought she would win New Hampshire handily.
Mind you, I am still undecided. but at least it now appears we will still have a Presidential race when Illinois votes on February 5.
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:32 pm:
Poor John McCain. Who was paying attention to his little win over there on the Republican side.
Obama is likely to win the Nevada and SC. The Culinary Workers union is reportedly about to endorse him in Nevada and they’re a big deal in a low-turnout state. SC, we know, is already strongly predicted.
So, it’s going to be a squeaker all the way to February, in both parties. Likely, the Dems will get the most attention though, which is probably annoying to any Repubs seeking independent votes.
Had Obama won NH, much more attention likely would have switched to the Repub contest.
- amy - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:53 pm:
Obama’s problem can be summed up in his debate
moment on saturday when he snarkily said that
Hillary was alright enough. Stephanopoulos called
it peevish and small. it shows arrogance. now,
why is no one talking about how Obama went straight
into southern afam cadence in his speech? double
ivy guy sure plays a good part. they always,
well, maybe not after tonight, critique every
little thing Hillary does with rank sexism.
and, oh, by the way, for the history buffs who
never stopped about the historic Iowa win for
the african american (which it really was
not since Jesse won S.C.), is this
the first time a woman has won a primary for
president? finally, Hillary is taking
back her base!!!!!
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:59 pm:
Just saw Stephanopolous on ABC spinning the win for Hillary. I find it fascinating that although Obama was way back in the NH poles just a few weeks ago and Hillary barely held on, they network newsies are all calling this a big win for her. It’s not so good if you consider where she was.
I doesn’t look like a comeback to me, but that’s the headline. If not for Iowa last week, this would be reported as a loss for Hillary.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 10:59 pm:
So, sexism is wrong, but snide racial shots like yours are OK?
Sexism is wrong. You made some good points earlier today, but that was a bit much.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 11:00 pm:
And, I think, it tells me something about what went on in NH.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 11:06 pm:
Well said, Captain.
- there you go again - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 11:11 pm:
Hillary Clinton has been leading in New Hampshire polls for the past 12 months and only after Iowa did Barack shoot a few points above her. When all the votes are in tonight, this will end up to be a 2-point margin by Clinton over Obama. That doesn’t merit grand conclusions about any campaign. This race continues and Obama has lots of momentum.
- A Citizen - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 11:28 pm:
And Hillary was also so clean and well spoken, too! Sorry but the sexist racist stuff makes me nutty.
- Forgot about Dre - Tuesday, Jan 8, 08 @ 11:38 pm:
I think Edwards will lose any more funding and have to quit before Super T.
Rudy nineleventi was fighting Ron Paul for last place the last time I looked. Hopefully, he’ll drop off now too.
I expected an Obama Steamroller today but at least he kept it close, and the slight panic will likely steel the resolve of his team to fight even harder. Since it’s a 1-1 race right now, all that we’ll lose is some dead weight from peripheral candidates as these two fight down to the wire.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 12:16 am:
The polls for the Republican race accurately protrayed the McCain climb in New Hampshire and the Iowa race. In fact, the Iowa poll is complicated by the candidate rating syestem. Yet pre-polls were as accurate as it gets.
But the New Hampshire polls for the Dems were way way off. 20 points? This is very weird.
24 hr surge is laughable. Thats some fast moving grannies.
Don’t get me wrong, as a fellow right wind wacko, (part of the conspircy), we would rather run against the personally absorbed Hillary with the negative rating through the roof.
Better her than the Black Kennedy. Some say she is even unelectable. Who knows, really, at this point.
Good night for Republicans anyway you slice it. But a 24 hour surge. Geeezzz, come on?
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 1:10 am:
If I were in a state such as New Hampshire and were an independent voter, I would not tip my hat or maybe even lie. Why not? The amount of media coverage is suffocating and independents in N.H. have to grow tired of the media circus, polling and continuous negative/postive attention.
This did surprise me, though. Hillary is not an “agent of change”; she is an agent of the beltway establishment. Obama fits what independent voters in N.H. want, and for Clinton to eek out a victory was unexpected.
- phocion - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 5:02 am:
Rich, Amy is dead-on. It’s not racist to note that his manner of speaking did get a more southern MLK cadence than most of us have heard before - because it did! But when HRC had a slight southern drawl in a speech (she lived in Arkansas for 20 years for God’s sake), it’s time to pillory Hillary.
Before calling Amy (or me) a racist, why don’t you read Gloria Steinem’s op-ed piece in the 1-8 NYT. If Obama were a women with his weak background, (s)he would have been a laughing stock to run for President. The media’s piling on Hillary and their absolute pass to Obama finally blew up in both the media’s and Obama’s faces (and yes, Obama was a complete jerk at the Saturday night debate, but few dare say so). Your (and most in the media) patent disdain for Hillary speaks volumes more for the acceptable level of sexism than it does about your color-blind attitude about Obama’s candidacy. This double standard finally pissed off enough women (and many of us guys).
I had a bet with my wife when the results were coming in that it would take about 2 hours before racism was alleged for this outcome. What a pity that I won that bet. But go ahead and keep making the charge - and look about much support it will gain among women, fair minded men, and Republicans.
This is a historic day for women in America - we should celebrate that and not completely ruin the moment by charging racism.
- The 'Broken Heart' of Rogers Park - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 6:15 am:
One thing is for sure. This primary is anything but boring. To give you an example, I stayed up way past my bed-time to watch the results last night and fell asleep during ‘Deal or No Deal’ the night before.
- Chillary Linton - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 6:48 am:
The “Obama Surge” has been defeated.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Jan 9, 08 @ 7:19 am:
The HRC campaign has been focused on turning out women for her…it worked tonight and ostensibly it will continue…well done Team Hillary…Ladies, let’s use sexism to our advantage in 2008…