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South Carolina primary updates *** Lynn Sweet hints Gore might endorse Obama *** Ted Kennedy, Gov. Sebelius to Endorse ***

Saturday, Jan 26, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 6:00 pm - CNN and others have already called the race for Obama.

* The exit poll is here.

* Automatically updating news reports culled from numerous sources…

*** SUNDAY UPDATE *** Ted Kennedy to endorse Obama

Senator Edward Kennedy, a Massachusetts Democrat, will announce his backing of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in Washington tomorrow, ABC News reported, citing an unidentified person close to Kennedy.

“I’ll let Ted Kennedy speak for himself,'’ Illinois Senator Barack Obama said on ABC’s “This Week'’ program today. “And nobody does it better. But obviously, any of the Democratic candidates would love to have Ted Kennedy’s support. And we have certainly actively sought it.'’

* From last night

Two sources say [Hillary Clinton has] directed a flood of calls [Kennedy’s] way, with everyone from union leaders to his Massachusetts constituents scrambling to stop what Clinton’s camp is worried could be an endorsement of Obama.

* And then there’s this

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union on Monday. And then Tuesday or Wednesday, she plans to endorse Barack Obama, numerous Democratic sources said.

* Obama’s victory speech…


* 8:01 pm - On closer examination, the AP may be simply sticking with their spin by political writer Ron Fournier that the results would all be about a racial divide. Here’s what Fournier wrote yesterday

What [Clinton] has won in South Carolina is the larger campaign to polarize voters around race and marginalize Obama (in the insidious words of one of her top advisers) as “The Black Candidate.”

* But, is that what really happened, or did Clinton fail? From MSNBC’s First Read tonight…

As for the white vote, Obama did not win the majority but neither did either of his two rivals. In fact, while Clinton got 36% of the white vote — it really was pretty close to a three-way split; Edwards got 40% and Obama 24%.

An MSNBC/McClatchy poll released on Thursday showed Obama’s support among white voters to be 10%. So consider his showing tonight a big improvement.

The AP might want to adjust its outlook.

* 7:47 - Tim Russert on Obama’s win…


* 7:44 pm - Ben Smith at the Politico

For the first time, it occurs to me, Obama really won the expectations game: Those recent polls set up an expectation of racial polarization, and primed us to write that story, and now the story will be about Obama’s healthy support from whites.

* Um, maybe not. Here’s the AP instant analysis

Obama won Iowa, one of the whitest states in the country, and also won more than a third of white voters in multi-candidate contests in New Hampshire and Nevada — even though Clinton won both states.

But in South Carolina, that figure plummeted and showed a vast division between the races — Obama won just a quarter of white voters and 80 percent of blacks, the exit poll showed. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton split most of the white vote.

* 7:35 pm - Clinton’s camp appears to have over-sold the possibility of a close race in South Carolina. Mike Flannery filed this report about an hour before the polls closed…

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign worked all week to convince reporters and others that anything less than a double-digit victory by Obama should be redefined as a victory for her — an argument echoed Saturday by a supporter from Illinois, J.B. Pritzker.

Oops.

* 7:29 pm - Apparently, there will be no gigantic endorsement tomorrow. A member of the Kennedy family will likely give Obama the nod, but not Ted.

*** UPDATE *** The endorser turns out to be Caroline Kennedy.

* 7:11 pm - All the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida, but this e-mail just arrived from Clinton’s campaign…

“We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.”

* 7:10 pm - Josh Marshall on Bill and Hillary Clinton…

The presidency is a singular job. It should stay that way. And it’s precisely because I’m looking forward to supporting her if she is the nominee that I hate seeing her being overshadowed by her spouse and having her husband bigfoot the process which diminishes her and makes me think her presidency could be a 4 year soap opera where Bill won’t shut up and let her have a shot at doing the job.

* 7:04 pm - David Axelrod

“This was a very, very strong repudiation of the tactics used here,” Axelrod said. “Divisiveness would rule, the old techniques of slash and burn politics was working — that was the story line for the past 10 days. The people of South Carolina were resolute that, ‘We don’t want to go there. This is about the future, not the past.’ “

* 6:47 pm - Closer to home…

Chicago set a new single-day record for Early Voting today with nearly 5,800 ballots cast, ahead of the traditional Early Voting “peak week.” (The previous record was 5,078 ballots cast in the last day of Early Voting before the 2007 municipal election.)

*** 6:35 pm *** Lynn Sweet has what could be the scoop of the day

And that big endorsement I hear is coming….the two biggest out there are Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass) and former Vice President Al Gore.

UPDATE: Ms. Sweet just sent me an AIM in response to a query from me saying she was “just noting the two biggest endorsements out there.”

* 6:17 pm - Obama won the female vote 55-29.

But, Edwards won white males with 44 percent, with Obama and Clinton were essentially tied. Clinton won white females with 42 percent, to 35 for Edwards and 22 for Obama. Black females went for Obama 82-17.

* 6:15 pm - Obama won independent voters with 40 percent, to 35 percent for Edwards and just 24 percent for Clinton. Obama also won Democratic voters with 58 percent, to 28 for Clinton.

* 6:10 pm - From the exit polls

Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton’s campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 47 percent went for Barack Obama while only 38 percent went for Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, the exit polls also indicate Obama easily beat Clinton among those voters who decided in the last three days — when news reports heavily covered the former president’s heightened criticisms of Obama. Twenty percent of South Carolina Democrats made their decision in the last three days and 57 percent of them chose Obama, while only 18 percent picked Clinton

* 5:35 pm - A friend who is working in South Carolina for Obama today sends along this e-mail with a picture…

I took this picture outside a polling place this morning at a church.. You don’t see this too much in cook county.

He’s right. You don’t see signs like this around these parts…

* 5:08 pm - The AP won’t release the head-to-head results from the S. Carolina exit polls until voting has ended in about an hour, but here is a snippet of what they did write about

Interviews with voters as they left their polling places indicated about half the electorate was black.

Half the voters said the economy was the most important issue in the race. About one quarter picked health care. And only one in five said it was the war in Iraq, underscoring the extent to which the once-dominant issue has faded in the face of financial concerns.

Roughly half the voters said former President Clinton’s campaigning for his wife was very important to their choice.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - SATURDAY UPDATE: Schock; Wait; Sieben; Sullivan; Koehler; IHSA *** UPDATED X1 - Silverstein; Jacobs; Cultra; Hendon; Cook County SA race

Saturday, Jan 26, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Saturday primary preview

Saturday, Jan 26, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here are the final South Carolina trendlines. Click the image for more details…

[News feeds moved to this post.]

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Reader comments closed for the weekend

Saturday, Jan 26, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

It’s really heating up now, campers. Better get rested while you can.

Today is Friday, so you know the drill. Head to Illinoize. The place is on fire.

Kevin’s first post is up, by the way. Go check it out.

And here’s a little Cortez the Killer to chill by…


He came dancing across the water
Cortez, Cortez
What a killer.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Afternoon Update (use all caps in password)

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - This just in… *** UPDATED X2 ***

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup

Disabled-rights advocates and Chicago paratransit riders are planning a last-ditch effort to head off a two-fold increase in the cost of the monthly pass set for Feb. 1, saying the increase could put public transportation beyond the reach of many disabled people.

Amid the swirl of controversy and legislative action over giving senior citizens free rides on the CTA, Metra and Pace, some disabled riders say increasing the price of the paratransit pass from $75 to $150 a month will cause greater hardship to people who live on disability checks. […]

Paratransit advocates meeting Thursday questioned why the cost of the monthly pass — only available in Chicago because it is a holdover from when the CTA ran the service — is going up while other fare increases were forestalled. The cost of single-ticket paratransit service will also stay level.

* The Question: Should public transit just be free to all? Explain.

  50 Comments      


Why this photo matters

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I posted this photo earlier this morning for a reason…

* In reality, this photo means nothing. Hillary Clinton is absolutely right that she’s taken thousands of photos with people over the decades. She’s also right to point out that, unlike Obama, she never had a longterm relationship with Tony Rezko.

* That being said, however, the leak of this pic is precisely the same thing that Hillary and Bill Clinton have been doing to Obama for weeks.

For instance, here’s a story from the AP

Asked to name a weakness, Obama mentioned his messy desk and reliance on staff. Clinton faulted him for it, saying she was better prepared to oversee the government bureaucracy.

What a crock.

* The Clintons have flat-out lied about Obama’s “Present” votes on abortion bills to make him somehow look anti-choice. They have twisted his comments on Republicans and Ronald Reagan beyond recognition to make him look like a traitor to his party. They even leaked opposition research to a gullible LA Times reporter about how Obama had changed his vote on a few bills.

* So, I got a big chuckle when I received this e-mail from the Clinton campaign this morning…

Clinton Campaign Holds Conference Call TODAY on Obama Campaign Attacks

WHAT: Conference call TODAY to discuss Obama Campaign attacks
WHEN: TODAY, Friday, January 25, 12:00 p.m. EST
TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CONFERENCE CALL,
PLEASE DIAL: 800-434-1335, CODE: 281-378

* None of those Clinton attacks really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. And neither does the above photo. The only thing it proves is that Rezko was everywhere. He’s like a toxic political Zelig.

* All that being said, I totally agree with Mark Brown that it’s past time for Obama to come completely clean about the one Rezko issue that truly does matter, at least as far as I’m concerned.

Who set up the deal with Rezko on the house and land purchase? Obama and Rezko were both the top bidders on those properties, but that, to me is not the issue. What I want to know is how - exactly - did this thing come about? Did Obama call Rezko and ask for help? We know that the property owner wanted to sell both pieces at the same time. Obama didn’t have the money to buy both. What was the deal?

And, frankly, what was he thinking?

* I was looking for a new place to live about the same time Obama was. I remember seeing an ad for Rezmar townhomes on the Chicago River. I checked the website and thought, “Wow, these are perfect.”

Then, a little voice inside my head said, “Miller, you’re gonna wind up on the front page of a newspaper if you buy one of those, no matter how much you pay. Don’t be an idiot.”

So, the idea was immediately flushed from my brain.

I knew better than to do any kind of deal, no matter how above-board it might be, with Tony Rezko.. Obama didn’t. I can’t get past that problem, and no pimpy little photo of Rezko with Hillary and Bill are gonna make up for that.

Come clean, Barack.

  52 Comments      


Quinn takes on Blagojevich… again

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I had a bit about this yesterday in “This just in…” but I think it deserves its own post today. Lt. Governor Pat Quinn told reporters yesterday that strong ethics legislation needs to be approved before a statewide capital construction plan is passed

“We can’t be giving out highway contracts and then having the governor the next day say, ‘Hey, how about contributing to my fundraiser?’” Quinn told reporters at the Statehouse. “That’s trouble with a capital T.”

Quinn also said Gov. Rod Blagojevich should disclose exactly what services his campaign has been buying from the Chicago law firm of Winston & Strawn. Campaign reports filed this week brought billings by that firm, where former Gov. Jim Thompson works, to more than $2 million. “This should not be some kind of mystery,” Quinn said. “This is not healthy.”

* The LT was also asked when he had last spoken with the governor…

“I don’t think he’s talked to too many people, other than his very close palace guard,” Quinn said.

Thoughts?

  25 Comments      


Brookins slammed on all sides, issues buried in contest

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Slightly slanted lede?

Democratic Cook County state’s attorney candidate Anita Alvarez accused opponent Howard Brookins Jr. on Thursday of dragging his feet on child-support obligations, but he called the attack “disgraceful” and said the dispute stemmed from bills involving a doctor not fully covered by his insurance.

* Way down in the article…

Brookins fired back later in the day with documents appearing to back up his claim that he’s fully paid up on child-support payments.

* More from the Daily Herald

Brookins, in a prepared statement, said “I have made every required child support payment from the time of separation with my ex-wife through today. In addition I have consistently provided health insurance for my son. This dispute stemmed from the fact that I provided health coverage … through an HMO, and my wife took him to an out-of-network physician. As a result, we needed the judge to determine who was responsible for the out-of-network payments.”

* Meanwhile, on the issues

In one of the clearest dividing lines in the Cook County state’s attorney race, the one Republican and six Democratic candidates are sharply divided on whether to allow police officers to give out warnings instead of filing formal charges for possession of drugs in small amounts.

Four Democrats said they had problems with the concept while two Democrats and the Republican endorsed it Thursday.

* The Sun-Times looks at the horse race

Allen had raised the most money by the end of 2007, with $351,774 on hand. Since Jan. 1, Allen has taken in at least $125,590 more. But Suffredin could be beating him in the money race, with $271,436 at the end of the year and an additional $391,883 raised since Jan 1.

And no one knows how the presidential primary will affect the race. Women turning out in force for HIllary Clinton could help Alvarez, the only woman running. And “if there is a huge [Barack] Obama vote, on the surface it helps Brookins,” the better-known of the two black candidates, Green said.

* The Sun-Times also looks at some business as usual. Brookins helped get money for a bigtime subdivision in his ward, and then apparently got his girlfriend (now his wife) a job selling the houses…

Brookins takes credit for scoring $87.1 million in public cash for the project developers, including $11.6 million from the city to entice developers to build. […]

After the deal was done, Brookins, who’s running for Cook County state’s attorney, says he remembers “asking these guys if we can refer people to them for work.”

So, he did. One of the alderman’s recommendations was his girlfriend, Ebonie Taylor, during his bitter divorce from his first wife, Nanette Brookins. Ebonie Taylor, who married Ald. Brookins after his divorce was final, got hired to sell the Beverly Ridge homes — which go for between $285,000 and $560,000 — for straight commission.

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Trouble ahead?

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yesterday, Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden, a former House GOP staffer and an old pal of mine, worried aloud about Steve Sauerberg’s Republican primary race

Having a good ballot name can go a long way to winning an election. This isn’t just cynicism on my part. It’s been borne out in recent Illinois political history. […]

More famous, and with far more impact, was the 1986 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. George Sangmeister, a State Senator from Will County faced off against Lyndon LaRouche supporter Mark Fairchild. There probably wasn’t a single Democratic elected official in the state that didn’t support Sangmeister, to the point that the party organization never really worked the election. On election night, the wacko with the nice name, Mark Fairchild, beat Sangmeister. Adlai Stevenson, faced with the choice of being on the ticket with Fairchild or running as a third party, decided on the latter. It killed the Democrats that year as Jim Thompson crushed Stevenson.

After receiving yet another question today from a Republican about who to vote for in the race for U.S. Senator, I’m very concerned that we might end up with another Fairchild on our ticket.

* Shelden went on to describe Sauerberg’s opponents, one of whom has a much better ballot name, and asks…

Are we setting ourselves up for the nice sounding Andy Martin to be our candidate against Dick Durbin?

* Sauerberg hasn’t filed a campaign finance statement yet, so we don’t know how much he’s raised. I checked around yesterday and was told that he has done a couple of mailers and will probably do some radio.

One of the things that helped Fairchild back in 1986 was the complete lack of news coverage about his candidacy and the race in general. There hasn’t been a whole lot written about Sauerberg lately.

The combination of a lack of spending and a lack of media attention is definitely giving some Republicans heartburn.

Discuss.

  21 Comments      


Morning shorts

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning

* Channel 2 anchor Randy Salerno dies in snowmobiling accident. More here.

* Sun-Times columnist Cepeda, TV critic Elfman among job casualties. More here.

* WTVP, creditors closer to accord

* Absentee ballots absent in some counties

* Blagojevich tries to rally governors for FutureGen

* Auditor: Government lags on measurements for Great Lakes toxins

* Madigan writes letter to EPA on greenhouse gases

* Is the Wrigley family finally gonna pay big bucks to keep their name affixed to Wrigley Field??

Sources tell Sneed William Wrigley Jr. placed a phone call to Cubs management wondering why his family was bushwhacked by comments made by Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney at the recent Cubs Convention.

* Daley looking for other mayors to support Olympics bid

* Pate was right — nothing wrong with registration deadlines

* All candidates must follow rules — even newcomers

* CTA renovating Howard station, boarding platform changes

* Illinois 14th CD Thursday mailer fest - Lauzen

* Congressman Mark Kirk Again Crushes Competition in Fundraising; Still at the Top Nationally

* Personality mixes with platforms

* Laesch’s fundraising improves; but not enough to compete with Foster

* Democrats underwhelm the audience

* Democrats offer their Rx for health care problems

* Former Peoria reporter seeks Democratic candidacy

* Schock wants 20% ethanol blends

* Obama’s ‘present’ voting record a thing of the past, say former colleagues

* ‘Present’ votes defended by IL lawmakers

* Why campaign coverage sucks

* Friday Beer Blogging: Bar Tricks Edition

  8 Comments      


Caption contest!

Friday, Jan 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Comments are now closed. The point has been made.]

  57 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup (updated)
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser list
* Feds approve Medicaid coverage for state violence prevention pilot project
* Question of the day
* Bost and Bailey set aside feud as Illinois Republicans tout unity at RNC delegate breakfast
* State pre-pays $422 million in pension payments
* Dillard's gambit
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
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