A whiff of panic among Republicans?
Monday, Feb 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Saturday’s post had excerpts from the Tribune’s presidential poll of Illinoisans…
The survey found Obama, a first-term Illinois senator from Chicago, with the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton, a two-term New York senator born in Chicago and raised in suburban Park Ridge, had 24 percent.
On the Republican side, McCain, a veteran Arizona senator, had the backing of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state, compared with 20 percent for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 15 percent for former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and 4 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
* And Sunday’s Tribune had a long piece about local GOP anxieties…
“I think there’s a small base of Republicans that are focusing on this presidential contest and the more independent-minded are not going to be voting in the Republican Party with favorite-son Barack Obama on the Democratic ballot,” said state Sen. Dan Rutherford (R-Chenoa), the Illinois chairman of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign. “I think you’ll be finding a low Republican turnout.” […]
“I’m getting calls from committeemen all over the place. They say, ‘We’ve got nothing going to keep our Republicans from voting for Barack,’” said state Rep. Angelo “Skip” Saviano of Elmwood Park, a member of the Republican State Central Committee.
* More presidential crud, compiled by Kevin…
* Obama’s fundraising collides with his rhetoric
* Clinton health plan may mean tapping pay
* Illinois NOW Tries to Lie It’s Way Out
* Romney lumps McCain in with Obama, Clinton
* Ready for Super Tuesday
* Candidates spend time elsewhere despite state’s early primary
* DuPage hears ‘straight talk’
* McCain Rally
* McCain urges conservatives to get aboard
* Romney visits DuPage County
* Obama sees McCain as boosting his hopes for Dem nomination
* Obama airing TV commercial during Super Bowl in select markets
- Ghost - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 10:46 am:
I wonder if Obama republicans are supporting him because he needs high percentages to grab more delegates, or more for the historical flavor of the moment.
We have not seen such cross party support for a canidate since Reagan democrats in the 80’s. Very interesting race, record tunrouts! The american voting public is actualy engagedin an election for the firt time in a long time. hat tip to Obama for that.
- North of I-80 - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 10:48 am:
FYI: Friday I was phone surveyed 3x by different organizations asking who I would vote for and reasons why;
On Sat, 1 more phone survey
On Sunday 2x more phone calls asking who I would vote for.
I gave all 5 machines (+ 1 live person) different answers & reasons, none true.
- Old Shepherd - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 10:50 am:
The Obama ad during the Superbowl was outstanding. Many of the Hillary supporters I know were moved by it.
- capitol view - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 10:54 am:
my robo calls are coming in, too.
Illinois is considered a monolithic state by the talking heads on national TV, but the delegate count is more critical to the candidates. For the Democrats, Obama will certainly win Illinois, but Hillary may win a quarter or more of the delegates depending on who her delegates are in the various parts of the state.
This Illinois delegate factor is why Bill was in southern Illinois over the weekend. This contest may go to the convention for the Democrats as well as the Republicans, with Bill using his charm on all the Super Delegates party officials.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:01 am:
With McCain already unstoppable, Republicans are crossing over to decide in the Democratic primary.
This will happen across the country in states where McCain is seen to easily win for the GOP, including Illinois.
There is nothing to vote on the GOP side, so what is the big surprise?
- wndycty - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:10 am:
Did you guys see that Hillary cried again today?
http://www.swamppolitics.com/
news/politics/blog/2008/02/clint
on_crys_in_connecticut.html
- leigh - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:11 am:
I think in the 14th congressional, the Republicans are going to pull Republican ballots. With all the money spent on that race, a lot of interest has emerged.
- Reddbyrd - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:12 am:
Looks like Chairman Andy is about to “deliver” for another Andy for US Senate…..and they thought Keyes was a disaster…..Where is Chairman Judy when we need her?
Good work guys. The rebuilding is really humming now!
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:14 am:
Will low GOP turnout make Andy Martin the proud successor to Alan Keyes?
- Observer - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:15 am:
Saviano–ever the opportunist–is just trying find a place to tell Barack he “was” should Obama win (”my people went with Barack, and I couldn’t stop’em, Andy/Dan”). He ain’t worried about GOPers in his area pulling ballots for Barack. Good grief.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:18 am:
I agree about the 14th. And there will GOPers voting for Obama and then pulling a Republican ballot in the special. And Democrats voting against Oberweis doing a similar gyration.
As for Obama though, this is going to unfold and cath up with him late Spring and this summer and it will be a catastrophe for Democrats.
It will cast a whole new light on Obama’s judgement coming out against the war in Iraq from the get go.
- Big W - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:19 am:
The so-called GOP MOB running to support Obama is absolutely ridiculous! These people were never a true fiscally or socially conservative supporter.
As far as I can tell, Obama is further to the Left than Billary, so, if all the so called GOP want to lose gun rights, have more money taken from your check given to the Illegal’s and Non-workers……the Country is YOURS!
- Phil Colllins - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:32 am:
McCain isn’t unstoppable. Last Thurs., Huckabee said that only 8% of the delegates had been chosen. Huckabee is the best candidate.
Andy Martin will lose. The majority of voters want to vote for someone they think will win. Since he got less than 5% in statewide primaries, in 2004 and ‘06, no one should think that he’ll win in ‘08. The GOP U.S. Senate primary will be won by Mike Psak, the only conservative in that race. He was endorsed by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life and Chicago Minuteman Project. His petition was signed by voters from 96 counties. Please read his site, www.psak4ussenate.com.
- Andy Martin - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:50 am:
All right boys, behave yourselves. (And that applies to Mike Psak’s one supporter, as well.) I am no Alan Keyes and I promise you a good race if I am nominated. I have run a good campaign and, yes, we do expect to win. Join us. We will have a news conference this afternoon to disclose even more misleading communication by Slippery Steve. You may not realize it now, or even be willing to admit it, but I am the best and most qualified candidate to oppose Dirty Dollars Durbin. Stay tuned. And thank you to Andy McKenna, for “endorsing” my opponent and marking him with the sign of the “Combine.”
Andy Martin
http://www.AndyforUSSenator.com
AndyforUSSenator@aol.com
- Anon - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:08 pm:
Thanks to Obama, cold rain and the sorry state of the GOP, I believe a stunningly low GOP turnout is coming.
- Ghost - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:18 pm:
The GOP is alive and well….somewhere.
- Captain America - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:22 pm:
Bill,
Your hyoerlink to this blog post alleging a Saddam-Obama connection is pure fantasy. The feds are after Governor A, not Senator Obama. The only Obama-Rezco issue is the “sweetheart” real estate deal. It appears unlikely that Rezco’s testimoany will even address this transaction, since the feds are pursuing Governor A, not Senator Barack Obama.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:25 pm:
Yeah, BB, that’s a bit of a batty stretch.
- RMW Stanford - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:54 pm:
Hey Andy years ago one of my uncles named cat after you, right after you dropped the last part of your name to make it sound more electable.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 12:59 pm:
Maybe… but Alsammarae said he busted out of Jail the Chicago Way and that way can get pretty weird…
I can promise you plenty of people are looking at this one.
Zorn is right when he says Obama needs to sit down with reporters and answer any questions about his associations with Auchi, Rezko, Alsammare and explain anything he’s done on their behalf e.g. Durbins staff indicated they had been talking to State re: Alsammarae’s incarceration in Iraq. Was Obama’s too?
A lot of Democrats have such high hopes for Obama and there is enough murky stuff about him now to wonder if this isn’t going to come all crashing down with horrible effect.
We ought to be cynical enough coming from Illinois to sort the fact from hype and that’s just not happening with Obama.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:06 pm:
The 14th and 18th CDs will both see a high amount of GOP voters turning out. Other than that, it will be a bad day overall for the GOP in terms of real numbers, save for perhaps the 15th and 19th CDs where Obama is popular but maybe not popular enough to elicit crossover votes.
If Skip and other top Republican officials weren’t so opposed to open primaries in Illinois, maybe he wouldn’t spend so much time worrying about Obama taking votes away from the GOP. The state-level GOP should be less worried about Obama and more worried about reclaiming some of the State Senate seats we lost in 2006.
- Vole - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:08 pm:
I didn’t see this link so I am adding it:
“Nuclear Leaks and Response Tested Obama in Senate”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/us/politics/03exelon.html?
em&ex=1202101200&en=f2853a7f59384438&ei=5087%0A
Reading stuff like this and the Maytag article is reinforcing some of my skepticism about Barak. Rather than an agent of change, Barak may very well end up governing very much like Bill Clinton and hitting the middle road between big business interests and the interests of labor and environmentalists. My hope is very much tempered and on a very short leash. Unfortunately Barak may be on a short leash from all those he is collecting campaign donations from and those who he is reaching with the rhetoric of change. Is he going to have any room to satisfy anyone? If he is going to be Clintonian, why not go for the real McCoys?
- Justice - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:10 pm:
I see Obama winning the presidency. McCain will promise us he’ll close the borders (yeah right) but won’t promise us he’ll go after the companies hiring illegals. He’ll promise he’ll get Bin Laden, and promises us a 100-year war if need be. He isn’t exactly a fiscal conservative either. I’m liking Obama more and more. Of course I like Romney but don’t see him winning. I think he would be the better candidate against Obama. Hillary and Bill will torpedo their own race. Who knows, Ron Paul could win it all!
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:12 pm:
How can it be that in Illinois, and apparently around most of the country, the self-described “true” conservative GOP, despite all their savage attacks on the “apostate” McCain on right-wing radio and tv, can’t deliver for their Chosen One, Mitt? Have they lost the faith of the true believers? Or was their power overstated all these many years? Where’s Rush’s Army of Dittoheads?
- Levois - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:31 pm:
Why should the Republicans panic if they were unable to drum up some excitement over their races? That’s on them!
- Captain America - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 1:54 pm:
More than anything else, I honestly think Obama is embarassed about his past friendship, association,and support ftom Tony Rezko. Since both major newspapers tend to agree that he has been ethically exemplary in his political career, I consider tha Rezko real estate deal as an isolated aberration/anomaly. Rezko collected politicans like campaign buttons.
If Billary gets the nomination, the Republicans are going to have a field day rehashing their multiple ethical lapses and problems with the truth - not to mention ties to unsavory fundraisers ( remember the Mark Rich pardon?). I don’t agree with Hillary that she’s been vetted. The honorable and decent John McCain also has a much more embaraasing and significant ethical lapse in his political history - his ties to Charles Keating and related actions pertaining to the savings and loan scandal in the eighties.
None of the candidates in either party at any time are ethically blemish free. Obama’s eth
ical standards and behavior are resonably high, especially since he rose to power in a cesspool of endemic political corruption.
- Ghost - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 2:18 pm:
If the Rezko stuff is all the republicans have on Obama, then his election is a for gone conclusion.
Hillary has been banging that drum for a while now, not to mention the drug attaacks, sadam and Islam attacks etc. Bottom line, Clinton is way far more polarizing with a lot more dirty laundry, including her own Rezko connection, then Obama.
As for McCain, I doubt he can succeed against either HRC or Obama, but he has his best chance against HRC. The Obama image of being like kenedy and all the new and young voters he is drawing will give him monster mo. The best chance the repubs have is for HRC to get the nod.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 2:20 pm:
Let’s try to stick to Illinois, please. Thanks.
- chiatty - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 3:26 pm:
Even a hearty dose of Rod the Stunt-Gov couldn’t eliminate the panic from the Repubs here. This is one feckless group.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 3:35 pm:
I vote for the candidate I support. So, I might end up walking in and out of the polling booth tomorrow without casting a single ballot.
I refuse to vote for idiots and morons.
The Illinois GOP in my District has NOBODY to vote for. Voting for Durbin is a waste of time, so the Democratic ballot has no appeal.
Obama talks about bipartisanship and uniting parties. Have you seen his voting record? He is to the left of 99 other senators! What bipartisanship is he referring to? Barak Obama is going to have to move to the center to unite himself with SOCIALIST Independent Bernie Sanders! Obama is more extreme than the socialist?
Tell you what Barak - move your political balance to the center enough to build that bipartisan bridge to Bernie first - then I’ll listen to you again, OK?
- Alicia - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 7:04 pm:
Hey Phil-Democrats and Republicans are all looking for solutions for taming illegal immigration and the ramifications on the US economy. Pzak is supported by the Minutemen but where is the substance?
I haven’t seen or heard a proposal thought through from Pzak that is ready to introduce as a bill to the senate.
Right to lifer’s? Thier obsession to take away a women’s right to choose is a deep seated desire and fear to prevent women from fully participating in society .Of course ‘right to lifers’ are not able to recognize this deep unconscious need to still control women. Enlightment is absent from thier personal agenda.
As a deeply religious women I answer to a higher authority not the religious right. Let God be the judge not Pzak for God’s sake!
Do a little research boys. Pro life states have the worst record on spending for education and helping children. And then we have the dead beat dad’s running Pzaks campaign. Where is Sigmund Freud when we need him???
- PalosParkBob - Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:26 pm:
Alicia:
You’re right to say that both Dems and GOPers are looking for solutions to the illegal immigrantion problem, but they’re trying to solve different problems; the Dems are trying to get them on the public dole and on voting rolls while the Minutemen are trying to enforce the rule of law and get immigration policy to keep out the criminals and leeches and bring in those that actual create a econimic net gain to our nation.
As far as defining “pro-life” with school spending, remember not a dinme actually goes into the childrens’ pockets, it goes to the unions that provide the services.
If you want to see which states really care about “the children”, look for the value of services they receive by looking at outcomes and improvement in education and health compared to what they spend. If you do, I think you’ll find the pro-life states actually care more about the children than the death culture of pro abortion states.
As far as caring about the children, take a look at the long waiting lists for adoption of newborns if you don’t think that those who are pro life “care”.
As far as your argument about being judged by a “higher authority” you could use that argument against any law of man. We create laws to protect those who need protection from harm by others, and there is no group that that is more helpless and in need of protection than unborn children. If you don’t understand that that’s what pro-life is about for many of us, then you should perhaps research more than your pro-abortion friends.