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Predictions open thread *** Updated x1 ***

Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Try to keep your Super Tuesday predictions as Illinois-centric as possible. Thanks.

*** UPDATE 1 *** This story might help with your predictions…

llinois board of elections officials were more willing to talk today about the weather than the voting, saying it’s too soon to get a strong bead on statewide turnout. But press them, and they say there’s little chance a light rain, mid-30s temps, and a possible freeze toward evening will keep the state from breaking a 15-year turnout record today. […]

The [Cook County early voting] numbers featured a spike in young voter ballots and college absentee votes, said County Clerk David Orr. […]

Turnout in Sangamon County, home of the capital city of Springfield, was also far exceeding turnout in previous years, election officials there said.

       

49 Comments
  1. - GoBearsss - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:44 pm:

    My prediction:

    In the year 2025, Illinois’ corn harvest will start a boom with the invention of Super corn - regular corn that is at least 10 times bigger.


  2. - A Citizen - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:50 pm:

    - GoBearsss -
    You are not too far off - the UofI is trying to develop a strain of corn that is perennial instead of annual. Huge savings in costs for planting etc. would result.


  3. - Wilmette Willie - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:53 pm:

    Prediction of SA Race:

    Brookins–30%
    Suffredin–27%
    Allen—18%
    Alvarez–14%
    Milan–8%
    Brewer–3%


  4. - Lake Tom - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:54 pm:

    Obama
    Turner
    Collins
    Rita
    Washington
    M. Davis
    Golar
    W. Burns
    Hendon
    Riley
    Froehlich
    Schmitz
    Delgado
    Bradley
    Mayer
    Hahn


  5. - Been There - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:54 pm:

    Starting a few years before 2025 (even though I like corn) here are predictions for today.
    Obama 57%

    Brookins 29%
    Allen 24%
    Suffeirden 24%
    Alvarez 14%
    Milan 8%
    Brewer 1%

    Lipinski 42%
    Bennett 27%
    Pera 22%
    Capparelli 12%

    Will Burns 33%
    Johnson 29%
    Jackson 23%
    Chadda 15%


  6. - Justice - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:01 pm:

    Hillary squashed! Makes my year! Well…nearly makes my year. A Blagojevich indictment would make my year.


  7. - Bill - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:17 pm:

    I’ll be dead tired and hopefully incoherently drunk by midnight.


  8. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:18 pm:

    How do we tell the drunkenly incoherent Bill from the usual Bill? :)


  9. - Bill - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:21 pm:

    You looked really clean cut last night. I almost didn’t recognize you.


  10. - We can only hope - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:24 pm:

    Deratany 54%
    Berrios 46%


  11. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:24 pm:

    CCSA

    1. Allen
    2. Alvarez
    3. Suffredin

    IL-10
    Seals beats Footlik better than 2:1

    IL-14
    Foster wins but only gets about 55%

    CC Recorder of Deeds
    Smith gets between 55-60%


  12. - jerry 101 - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:26 pm:

    A few of my predictions:
    Obama - 62%

    Durbin - 99%

    Andy Martin - 45%
    Sauerberg - 37%
    Psak - 18%

    House Incumbents races…
    The only notable primary involving a House incumbent is Lipinski.
    Unfortunately…
    Lip…39%
    Pera 30%
    Bennett 29%
    Caparelli 2%

    IL-6
    Morgenthaler wins Dem primary

    IL-10
    Seals wins 65-35 over Footlik

    IL-11
    Balderman wins with 52% of the vote.
    Halvorson wins with 99% of the vote (Mickey Mouse and Big Bird get the rest).

    IL-14
    Oberweiss wins 50.05% to 49.05%, remainder going to Mickey Mouse and Daffy Duck (wait…Donald Duck, oberweiss is Daffy)

    Foster wins 47%
    Stein 28%
    Laesch 25%

    IL-18
    Aaron Strangelove takes 60% of the vote.

    In other races…
    Suffredin, Spyropoulos, and Deratany all win. Gene Moore holds on.

    Annazette Collins loses to Eddie Winters. From where I live, I’m not sure Collins realized she had a primary opponent. Winters sent out about a million mail pieces.


  13. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:28 pm:

    I got a haircut just for you, Bill. I wasn’t pleased at all with how that appearance went, though. I have too much in my head right now to speak coherently on TV.


  14. - Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:28 pm:

    I’ll predict the races I voted in:

    Obama - 61%

    Hendon - 33%
    Bedi - 29%
    Mertens - 35%

    Collins - 49%
    Winters - 51%

    Top 3 Water Rec:
    Spyropoulos
    Avila
    Maragos

    Alvarez - 23%
    Suffredin - 23%
    Allen - 22%
    Brookins - 20%
    Milan - 10%
    Brewer - 2%

    Deratany - 52%
    Berrios - 48%


  15. - Bill - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:31 pm:

    You were ok….better than the bloggers before you …Fran was particularly bad.


  16. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:35 pm:

    Here’s a life lesson: Live TV is much harder to do than it looks.


  17. - jwscott72 - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:42 pm:

    Some people vote. Others stay home. Rich Miller gets a headache from smart a$$ed blog commentators. LOL


  18. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:45 pm:

    IL-03

    Lipinski 33-39%
    Pera 30-36%
    Bennett 18-30%
    Capparelli 4-9%


  19. - LG - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:49 pm:

    Rich - i thought it went very well. appeared that you got all your points covered, which is difficult under that kind of pressure. for the first time, the other bloggers struggled, esp the RealClear guy. Rich Samuels in earlier segment barely spoke in complete sentences. added bonus — you let the real Rich-personality come through when they threw district #s at you, which makes nice live TV experience. (although you were a little too spiffed up; i had to look twice when the feed started. LOL)


  20. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:54 pm:

    The problem was we didn’t do an audio test before I went on, so when I went “live” I discovered that there was a sound loop. Whenever I was talking, I could hear myself a half-second later, which threw me off for a while. Also, I thought I probably shifted around too much. Whatever. Thanks for the nice words.

    Anyway, back to the topic at hand.


  21. - Thinking without the box - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:57 pm:

    18th district will reflect the SJ-R poll.
    61% McConoughey
    35% Schock
    4% Morris


  22. - Anonymous45 - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:57 pm:

    the weather is going to be a big factor for the I vote after work crowd–


  23. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:02 pm:

    Sauberberg loses.

    Skeeter, despite knowing that he should be home early getting ready for an important meeting late this week, has far more than one beer tonight.

    Let’s hope that I go 1 for 2 with these predictions.


  24. - With Mine Own Two Eyes - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:03 pm:

    Regarding the 3rd CD:

    Lipinski — 45%
    Pera — 30%
    Bennett — 20%
    Capparelli — 5%

    Just asking: I saw something interesting this morning: the same person putting up signs in my precinct were putting up signs for both Capparelli and Bennett.


  25. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:04 pm:

    The one thing I can guarantee is that all of the DEM candidates for States Attorney will be setting up shop at the County building well past Midnight with lawyers in tow.

    Also look for Tony Perica to be laughing in the background as the DEMS eat their own.


  26. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:06 pm:

    Rich, did Lauzen give up his State Senate Seat to run for Congress??


  27. - Been There - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:06 pm:

    A few other predictions

    Moore 53%
    Smith 47%

    MWRD
    Meany
    Maragos
    Santos

    Hendon 45%
    Bedi 20%
    Mertens 35%

    I have no idea about the Board of Review race but I have to say no matter what anyone thinks of Berrios, there is no way I would vote for Deratany after those God awful commercials he is constantly running.


  28. - Bud Man - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:10 pm:

    Obama does not do as well in Illinois as predicted because of the weather. The new voters he has been tapping will stay home.


  29. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:13 pm:

    Pollsters are wrong again (New Hampshire) as Godzillary wins California and sews up the nomination. She makes inquires to see if Harry Truman will be her running mate, but eventually finds out that the man from Independence died several years ago.


  30. - Wilmette Willie - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:17 pm:

    Rich:

    Live TV is tough. I’ve done some myself in the past. Just try to remember where the 10th CD is, the site of the Seals-Footlik race. My prediction-Seals 61%; Footlik 39%


  31. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:20 pm:

    Willie did Seals ever actually move into the district? Cannot be hard to find a place in Arlington or Prospect.


  32. - Jon Shibley Fan - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:33 pm:

    Whatever,

    Hillary probably will win CA…there are already millions of mail-in ballots in the can. So the polls there are meaningless. But no one will sew it up tonight - it is mathematically unlikely.


  33. - Wilmette Willie - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:33 pm:

    Whatever—

    I’m not condoning Seals not living in District. Similar to what Melissa Bean did a few years ago.I think though that Seals ran a better issues-based campaign that will be reflected in the final numbers. I still think Kirk will win in November, especially with McCain heading the Republican ticket.


  34. - best guessed plans - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:35 pm:

    In No Order:
    HOUSE
    Burns
    Turner
    Moore
    Mayer
    Hahn
    SENATE
    Moreno
    Hendon
    Steans
    Martinez
    Rumler
    CONGRESS
    Oberweis
    Schock
    Seals
    CCSA
    Alvarez


  35. - Honest Abe - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:38 pm:

    Members of Congress are not required to reside in their actual district (only within the state), just ask Rod Blagojevich who resided outside of the 5th Congressional District for years.

    Huckabee won West Virginia when McCain bailed on the state and had his caucus supporters shift to Huckabee. It is the same divide and conquer strategy that McCain used to defeat Romney in Iowa. Huckleberry Hound won because of McCain’s using his also ran campaign as a tool to beat Mitt.


  36. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:40 pm:

    did Lauzen give up his State Senate Seat to run for Congress??

    Not required in IL. If he loses, he stays as 25th Senator and becomes even more insufferable, if that’s possible. If he wins, Milk Dud is a likely winner for his seat. In either case, they will continue debating for the next 2 years as if the election never ended.

    My prediction - the undervote, combined with write ins such as Mickey Mouse, Daffy Duck and Dennis Hastert, will beat Michael Dilger (the other candidate in the 14th who has not really campaigned) 5-1.


  37. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:43 pm:

    Willie sorry, did not mean to sound edgy. Melissa Bean did live in her district but during 2002 redistricting she found herself living across the street(Literally) from her district.

    Seals does not have the courage to take on Jan Schawkowsky. If he could not win in a miserable GOP year of 2006, he will never will.


  38. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:46 pm:

    ===Seals does not have the courage to take on Jan Schawkowsky. ===

    That’s one strange comment. What does courage have to do with it? JS has a Dem district. Already occupied. There’s no law that says Seals needs to live in the district to run there, so I’m not sure of your point.

    Either way, back to the topic at hand, please.


  39. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:52 pm:

    Fair Enough Rich. Kirk 57%, Seals 43%


  40. - K to the 3 - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:11 pm:

    For President: Obama with 61%

    IL 10: Seals
    IL 11: Baldermann
    IL 14: Oberweiss finally gets his day in the sun (until November)
    IL 18: Schock

    Allen wins the nomination for CC State’s Attorney.

    Deratany wins Board of Review, thanks of course to that stellar endorsement by Forrest Claypool.

    Burns wins the House Nomination for District 26…sorry to say that’s the only primary I’ve been paying attention to at the state level.


  41. - Irish - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:20 pm:

    Obama wins handily. McCain wins also. Ron Paul surprises with good numbers possibly even beating Romney for second. Saurberg wins.
    The issue is decided Obama is the nominee. The convention is wild everyone is talking about unification. Bill is depressed that he won’t be in the White House again, gets drunk and asks Ted Kennedy to drive Hillary home.


  42. - so-called "Austin Mayor" - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:40 pm:

    Three Predictions:

    1. The Democratic turn-out in DuPage county — 50/50 or better in many polling places — is going to scare the living hell out of the Republican establishment.
    2. The Attorney General’s office will tell the local election officials they must do a better job of instructing their judges that voters do not have to show photo I.D. in Illinois.
    3. My Democratic signs will be stolen out of my yard by the time I get home tonight.

    – SCAM


  43. - Bill - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:43 pm:

    K to the 3
    I hope that you are right about Deranty, Allen and Seals but watch out for Kenny Johnson. He’s got the Mo going in.


  44. - Whatever - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:48 pm:

    Austin Mayor, they said the same thing about DuPage in 2006 only to see Roskam beat Duckworth and the GOP win every County Office.


  45. - phocion - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:02 pm:

    Obama wins Illinois around 70%. Hillary gets more delegates nationwide.
    McCain scores an Illinois win with about 45%.
    Suffredin ekes one out around 30% - Brookins gives a scare, and Peraica is bummed.
    Berrios pulls it out with less than 55%.
    Frank Avila Sr. gets re-elected to MWRD.
    The Milk Dud finally gets elected.
    Lipinski wins.
    Schock gives the People’s Republic of China something new to complain about with his win.
    Smith wins - no more Moore.
    Kenny Johnson edges past Will Burns.
    Hendon over Mertens.
    Pat Dowell smacks finishes off the donut.


  46. - R.A. - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:17 pm:

    Attention “With mine own two eyes”

    Your experience is similar to mine. I saw 11th Ward precinct captains handing out palm cards for both Lipinski and Caparelli!

    Something tells me the powers-that-be want Lipinski to win, but look bad doing so. Maybe they’re preparing a real candidate to run against him next time — one who will get organizational support.


  47. - R.A. - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:21 pm:

    Watch for Alvarez to win the State’s Atty. race by about a half a percentage point. The winner won’t be declared until about 3 p.m. Wednesday.


  48. - Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 5:37 pm:

    I was out at train stops this afternoon and the weather is straight up nasty - there’s no way in hell the after work crowd is going to traipse out to their polling places.


  49. - Downtrodden - Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 6:11 pm:

    Glad I voted two weeks ago - this night is not fit for man nor beast.

    I predict the turnout will be much lighter than initially expected, despite the record-setting number of early voters.

    Biggest surprise tonight - State’s Attorney race in Cook County too close to call, with Alverez neck and neck with Suffredin.

    I predict David Orr will call for better training for election judges after Lisa Madigan’s office threatens prosecution of rogue election judges.

    I predict Hendon will win, but narrowly, giving Amy Sue Mertens a lot of visability and a good start for her next election.

    I predict Lauzen wins and gives the weirdest victory speech ever.

    Looking farther down the road, I predict that Paul Vallas takes enough votes away from Lisa Madigan so that Blago wins a narrow three-way race in the 2010 primary. Comparisons with Ralph Nader will follow. The field could have been split even more narrowly were it not for the Governor’s successful challenges to Pat Quinn’s nominating petitions.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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