Well this poll program you have is better than the one you have used in the past. Last time I was able to vote four times. This time it only let me vote once!
I voted 1-5. Many of my fellow attorneys who are die-hard Democrats are claiming that they cannot bring themselves to vote for Obama. After attending two attorney conferences I don’t think I’m out on a limb here. I also attended several ethnic functions, one latino and the other Greek-American and many of those ethnic voters seem to be saying the same thing. I think the margin in Illinois will be much tighter than any of us realize given the dynamics of race and Obama’s liberalism and perception that he will be weak on foreign policy and military matters.
Illinois may look progressive on race, (Obama, Jones, Stroger) but the reality is that we still have a long way to go.
Not quite as huge as you would think, I suspect there is going to end up being a bit of ‘Obama Fatigue’ in Illinois when this is all said and done. Some folks are going to hit him hard, something he really hasn’t had in Illinois and it is going to hurt his standing with some folks.
He’ll win by about the same margin as other Democrats do in Illinois in Presidential elections. His increase in any “new” voters turning out, I think, will be offset by a higher-than-normal number of Independent voters going for McCain on the issue of National Security and being OK with it because of his reputation as a moderate. Obama’s numbers will likely be a little lower than they could be if the GOP pounds on the Governor and the Democratic Party in general, but it remains to be seen if they can do anything effectively as a party.
I guessed 15-20 point victory as a conservative guess. I think the donwstate folks who voted for alan keys will be out in force and hold is margin down a bit.
I believe the Rezko connection will be play up on by the “swift boaters” in the GOP. In reality, Obama talks the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk (except he will walk away from 20 year relationships to distance himself from his roots and potential controversy, which most people don’t respect). Unfortunately, he won’t be able to walk away from his Faustian deal(s) made with the Rezko.
Unless Rezko and Wright are made to stick to Sen. Teflon as they would to anyone else, 20+ points, easily.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:53 am:
I’d put the Over-Under at 15 points, and I went with the over.
Record African American turnout, college turnout, and McCain’s non-existent ground game will contribute, not to mention the fact that every Democrat will have Obama on their literature.
Obama will win in a landslide in IL. Blago was voted in twice, so on and so forth. He may not be qualified IMO, but he is an affable guy, who captivates and motivates people.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:02 am:
I’m w/ YDD. Although, I went a bit under.
I have been disappointed by the undercurrent of racism that has popped up, but it is overcome by benefit many voters will hope to attain by having “our guy” as president.
I also think McCain’s age will become a big factor and Obama will lay out the conservative part of McCain’s voting record to bring the independents into the fold.
(I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being 20+, but the pessimist in me pushed the vote button.)
Why are so many people surprised by racism showing up? All political correctness achieved was the silencing of people deemed to have non-politically correct views. In effect, it put us about 30 years behind where we could be by now. BTW, racists come in all races.
I voted for Obama twice, I voted for Carol Mosely Braun twice, I voted for Mel Reynolds and Jesse Jackson Jr.
But by any presidential standards, Obama falls frightenly short. He has been nothing but a part-timer in the State Senate, and US Senate. While I am obviously a color-blind voter, I am not a blind voter.
15-20 points. Big among African-Americans, suburban GOP women. Less than you might think among white, blue-collar Dems Jews and Hispanics. Every presidential vote is between the 40 yard lines. A 15-20 point win in Illinois is still huge.
I went with 15-20. I’d imagine it’s going to be at least larger than 10pts regardless.
Despite what Louis and Vanilla are claiming about some sort of “Obama fatigue”… there is no evidence of that in light of the recently completed Dem primary. In fact, just the opposite is occurring as many polls show him getting a bounce out of last week.
On the other hand, all but the most die-hard partisan Republicans (distinct from partisan conservatives) are already showing McCain fatigue as the large contingent of GOPs panning his Tuesday “cottage cheese in lime jello” speech illustrate.
I had to go with 10-15% just because of the Illinois connection. IMO the “Obama Fatigue” will hit home big. That and people realizing that they have been backing someone they know little about, and that Obama has precious little experience.
When I see a column by Mary Schmich gushing all over Obama, for no reason she can explain, one knows that people will wake up someday and say to themselves “why the hype?”
Obama said it best when he described himself as an ink blot test, people see different things in me.
I didn’t say anything about Obama fatigue. I expect him to continue to climb in the polls until after the Republican convention.
That is the normal presidential cycle for Democrats. Up big until the Republican convention, they polls show a more realistic result at Labor Day with the GOP polling 4% below final results in November.
I think Obama will have a Carter summer. Carter was able to lose 28 points and still pull it out. We’ll see if Obama can do the same.
I don’t see “fatigue”. He is extremely interesting and voters will favor him for a long time. His problem will be buyer’s remorse by Labor Day. He has had this problem since March, but he’ll get a great bounce after Denver, then he’ll start sliding again…
Obama in Illinois? He should win by at least 10% here.
Barack will win by 15-20 points…the downstate vote in all areas except college towns will see a strong showing by McCain…folks in IL should concentrate their efforts on winning MI and WI for Obama…
“===I love that 27% of voters think that McCain will win.===
I figured it would be a bit higher than that.”
I appreciate that there are a lot of people in this State who really, really want McCain to win, and no one ever knows what tomorrow will bring, especially in electoral politics. But shouldn’t anyone who predicts a McCain victory without a plausible explanation (i.e., a nefarious plot by VP Cheney to disenfranchise everyone to the left of William Howard Taft — hey, it could happen!) have an asterisk or some other warning sign place on all future posts to let people know that their opinions might be a little other-worldly?
Rich - It might be ridiculous to you to blame the PC standards, but they sure as heck didn’t help anything. I had hoped the issue could have been resolved, for the most part, in my lifetime. The issue does go deeper, and unless people feel they are free to say what they think on this subject nothing will get done. And I find that very upsetting.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:20 am:
Vanilla Man, don’t feel bad. I didn’t mention fatigue either. But there seems to be a pattern of the Obama hype not translating into the votes the way the hype claims. Reservations about him still exist and they do not seem to be going away.
That’s why I was conservative in predicting his margin of victory.
So, the way we get rid of racism is to just sit nicely and silently by while the racists rant? I don’t get your point.
Racism and bigotry are wrong. I wasn’t raised to ignore wrongs. Perhaps you were.
- Napoleon has left the building - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:38 am:
I voted 15-20. If it were a competitive state and both campaigns were spending money here and were trying to win here, maybe it would be closer or more competitive - but that’s not going to happen.
Home states tend to vote real big for their guys in a Presidential election. Happened for George Bush in Texas too.
I voted 10-15 points. Obama will win clearly just like Blago won despite all his scandals. The public just doesn’t care about corruption until sentencing arrives.
Rich that is not what I’m saying! The point is I believe more progress could have been made had communication not been stifled by the fear of offending someone. EVERYONE should have been talking all along is my point! Do not EVER insinuate my upbringing was racist. It most definately was not.
Sorry, racists and bigots offend me. And those who make racist and bigoted remarks should know that if they open their stupid mouths there are going to be consequences. Period. Let ‘em talk, but let ‘em accept the responsibility for it. That’s freedom.
BO is from Illinois and as such will win IL regardless of what happens nationally.
I may have blinders on, but I do not believe that racism on the side of the ‘white’ (whatever that is) population will be a dominant element in the remaining portion of the election. The media reports of racism seem to be more of a campaign tactic (both of the democratic sides) than any deep seated belief. I am sure there are fringe elements out there, but they exist at the margins of our society and will play a minor influence.
His success to date has been running as a cypher who represents change about anything that the voter is unhappy with. As long as he can maintain that posture, he will also be successful nationally. However if the campaign starts pushing for specifics he will have to say that the solution to xxx is a,b,c and then things get murky.
It will be interesting to hear who will support BO’s plan to improve the economy by raising taxes.
If I had to vote today for president, I would have to toss a coin. I think McCain’s age and experience are a plus. I like his military background. I DON’T like that he wants to stay in Iraq for heaven knows how long. And I certainly don’t want to see Little Little E #1 go back to Iraq (however LLE1 says if it’s not Iraq, it will be Iran, but I digress).
I like Obama, I like his youth, I like the fact that he is not a long-term politician (yet), I adore his wife, and I think he is a great speaker. He’s going to need a very strong cabinet and will need a crash course in diplomacy at this very high level. Militarily, I am concerned about what will happen to our troops should Obama come up with a sudden withdrawal.
With that all said, I am ever so slightly leaning Obama. Elections are always a surprise and I just can’t see Obama taking Illinois in a landslide. We have to factor in Hillary’s people and no one knows at this point how many will stay or defect.
Rich, They deeply offend me as well. I’ve never understood the mindset. I still believe we could have found more middle ground, and eliminated more misconceptions, than we have at this point if we had continued a conversation as a nation. We aren’t going to get into a ‘who’s more offended’ by racism argument here are we?
We’ve had a long conversation about racism in this country that goes back eons. I cannot fathom why you think we haven’t.
There are those who say they are against affirmative action and the reactionaries who cry racism at that sort of thing. I’ve denounced those goofs, too. In fact, a column of mine denouncing that sort of knee-jerk reactionary response contributed to a picketing of the Sun-Times a couple months ago.
If a person feels that his/her views on race are unacceptable and so s/he can’t talk about them, that says more about the person and the views in question than everyone else. It’s not my problem if somebody feels stifled. Speak away. But it’s a two-way street.
Obama’s gonna trounce McCain in IL. Once the real campaign starts, and more people know that McCain is a flip-flopping, lobbyist-loving, war-mongering, deficit-raising, anti-choice, pro-Patriot Act, anti-environment career politician who loves Washington exactly the way it is now–ouch. Especially in IL.
So if it’s racist that a white person won’t vote for Obama because he is black, isn’t equally as racist that 95% of black people are voting for him solely because he is black?
Obama wins because of Chicago. In the End, McCain is close because:
1. People downstate elected Obama the great and instead, got Obama a presidential canditate who has yet to show up for work. You don’t ask for a leave of absense on your first day on the job and expect the boss to be happen about you moving on.
2. Conservative Union voters will start to see that the, “change” means traditional union democrats have a smaller slice of the Pie in the Democrat party. They may vote for a liberal who will include them, but not for one who is blatently has explicitly told them he is moving the party away from them.
tp, just for future reference, if you claim to have great insights into how Democratic Party voters are gonna react, don’t tip your hand otherwise by calling it the Democrat Party. Just sayin
For instance, an Italian-American might prefer to vote for another Italian-American who leans his/her way on many issues and is of the same party. That’s perfectly acceptable in politics. But, if the Italian-American says s/he will not vote for an Irish-American under any circumstances, then that’s bigotry.
nonewtaxes, black voters are voting for Obama because they figure he will advocate a strong line on government aid for education, health care, funding for inner cities, crime prevention, etc. They also like Obama’s out-of-Iraq policy. These are the kinds of reasons why black voters have been voting overwhelmingly Democratic. If you reversed McCain’s and Obama’s policy stances on all the above issues, I guarantee you would see a lot of black voters going for McCain - which would mean they are _not_ voting just based on race.
Strangely enough, the black vote in Illinois didn’t split 50-50 between Obama and Alan Keyes. “They’re both black; guess I’ll flip a coin …”
It’s semantics, isn’t it? Voting “for” a person implies you are voting “against” an opponent, if there is one. Voting for someone solely because of his/her gender or ethnicity is as irrational as voting against her/him for the same reason.
Yeah, but nobody said anything about voting for someone solely for his/her race/gender/creed/etc. There’s more to it than that, so your argument is false.
On the other hand, voting against someone because of his/her race/gender/creed is definitely a part of this equation.
Obama by 20+. I can’t see him getting any less than 60%. People have to remember that while Alan Keyes was ridiculous, there was a large time period in there while Jack Ryan was out and Keeyes wasn’t even in yet. Obama took that opportunity to vist all around central and southern Illinois. And not just to places like Champaign and Carbondale. He went into small towns of 10,000-20,000 or less people that hadn’t seen a US Senate candidate in decades. The people there remember that, and they’re not going to pass up the opportunity to tell their kids and grandkids that the President of the USA sat in their neighbor’s livingroom with them and ate snacks.
Oh yeah, record turnout for AAs, young people, people voting for a native son, and all the rest of the usual demographic stuff. McCain’s lucky if he gets a majority of voters who use their senior cards on the early bird special at Bob Evans.
I picked 20-25%. I think the Keyes line (the Mendoza line for IL politics) prevents anyone from ever getting less than 29% of the vote if they’re playing for one of the big two parties. McCain will do better than Keyes because he appears to be sane. However, McCain is not going to bother campaigning or competing in IL unless he gets a lot more money in his campaign coffers.
1) People are starting to realize that Obama is a sham.
2) ALL of Hillary’s supporters are UPSET and HORRIFIED with Obama stealing the nomination from her. (I didn’t think this was the case at first but talking to Hillary supporters on the street has been shocking and eye-opening.) McCain will forge a coalition of Republicans, independents, and the 30% of Democrats in Illinois who voted for Hillary and he will TAKE Illinois by a small but comfortable margin.
The GOP will take IL back from the Democrat Party for good this year. People are sick and tired of Obama’s divisive politics and love and admire McCain’s record of heroic service to his nation. Everyone realizes that if McCain had been president for the past 8 years, we would have already won the war in Iraq and our troops would be safe at home today. But most realize that the Obama way of phased troop withdrawal is a recipe for disaster.
Increasingly, people are rejecting the cut and run politics of Obama, who would expand health care to the poor on the backs of the capital-holders. No American believes in that kind of unfairness. That’s not change we can believe in — and Illinois knows it!
i’d rather just start a list of all the people we want to see
leave when Obama becomes president. like ship out…..
Ronen, Claypool, Emil….. now that is worth spending
time on.
Rich — I was just kidding about putting an asterisk on future posts by anyone picking McCain, and I don’t know whether True Believer is kidding now, but I now nominate him as the first recipient of the True Believer ™ Asterisk for posters who let their hearts get too far ahead of their heads!
The only people who are divorced from reality are those who believe Obama will be our next president. Sorry folks, but the writing is clearly on the wall.
Sure, Obama will win the liberal enclaves on the west coast and the upper crust areas of New England, but mainstream America (including the great state of Illinois) is going to reject Obama’s brand of out of control change and vote for a steady leader we can believe in: John McCain.
McGovern and Gore lost their home states when they ran for president. This is an unusual result.
It is highly unlikely to see Illinois, Vermont, Hawaii, or DC not give Obama a majority of their votes. He is running 30 points ahead of McCain in these states/district, so it will take an unforseen disaster for Obama to lose here/there.
Today’s state-by-state poll results show McCain winning with 286 electoral votes, and losing the popular vote by 1.75%.
It is highly unlikely for Obama to lose Illinois. He will lose everywhere else before he loses here.
It has to be said again and again until it gets through the skulls of every sane Democrat: if you supported Clinton, you must vote for Obama. It would be a crime against your liberal/centrist souls (and your children’s futures) to vote for McCain.
As I wrote this I realized that I may be assuming a bit that most Democrats are sane. In any event….
I’m going with 15-20. Polls are pretty useless at this stage of the general. Kerry won Illinois by 11 points in 2004. I think the favorite son will do at least 4 points better than Kerry.
Sorry VanillaMan… That should’ve been “Louis and OneMan” in my earlier post.
A sweet spice… A single digit… What’s the diff?…
–
True… The oddity of your “projecting” post speaks for itself.
We’ve had “out of control change” for the last 7 1/2 years under the label of “compassionate conservatism”. It was neither, clearly.
Despite his denials and throwing his president under the bus, McCain is offering another 4 years of “out of control change” in the form of hackneyed attempts at repealing as much of the New Deal, Great Society, etc. as he and his conservative partisan lobbyists can.
While Vanilla is looking for those magic numbers, I should clarify…
I meant that the same company has not polled all states in some time (though they may start to do so regularly now).
Instead, folks have tried interpreting a hodgepodge of state polls from various outfits, some more recent or more complete than others.
Poblano had been showing McCain up for a bit, but his research was done based on “dirty” or “stale” numbers in a lot of cases. And his research no longer reflects those scenarios as he now shows Obama with 273 EVs to McCain’s 265 (I’m rounding) based on a statistical 50/50 popular vote.
But, as I await your reply, I should point out that whenever somebody believes they are in possession of “too much truth,” I always figure they’re chock full of something else.
To the person posting as “Bill” we already have a Bill. Pick a new name. You should know this considering your IP address.
But as for your post…
===As far as racist comments are concerned, Rich, you’re a typical liberal - talking about freedom of speech, but when someone’s comments don’t agree with yours, out comes the name calling and the denigrating, a direct contradiction of the tolerance and diversity rhetoric that you liberals preach. That is the liberal way, though, isn’t it? Do as I say, not as I do….===
Actually, that IS free speech. You say what you want, and then I say what I want. I don’t understand how you can be so unclear on that very basic concept.
Free speech is for you AND for me. I get to say what I want about your ridiculous ranting. See? That’s freedom, baby!!!
Rich, you’re being very patient today. Who doesn’t agree racism is bad? So is sexism. So is ageism. When the last two become as socially taboo as racism, we’d all be much better off. I say it’s still ok to discriminate against fat and ugly people. But I digress. Obama will get more than 65% of the vote in Illinois - even if the alleged “Michelle tape” is the October Surprise this year. Oh, and here’s the site for the electoral college, state by state polling. http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Keep it handy, Rich.
The problem is that some people think that their bigoted remarks ought to be immune from all criticism, which is beyond bizarre. Anyway, thanks for the link. I’ve bookmarked it and will look at it later.
The much-hyped, never-actually-made-public “Michelle Tape” is a hoax. The entire thing matched, nearly word for word, part of the plot of a recent (fiction) novel by Stephen Frey called “The Power Broker”.
Go figure — someone critical of Obama lied about his wife. Whodathunkit?
The silver lining is that even several conservative partisans were appalled by the crass lying. Malkan panned the hyping, and it was a National Review blogger that noticed the similarity to the plot of “The Power Broker”.
(Sorry for going OT.)
–
Rich, the spam blocker is likely picking up quantity of links. More than about 2 links and most filters snag posts. You should be able to adjust it to allow for folks who like to source their material.
I shut it off for now. The spam was only appearing on old comments, which are closed anyway. So we’ll see what happens now that Akismet is no longer blocking.
With regard to Republican prospects in Illinois, from McCain down to the county dogcatcher candidates, I think Mr. T’s character Clubber Lang from Rocky II (or was it III?) said it best:
“My prediction….pain.”
The Illinois GOP proved this weekend at its state convention that it’s not even serious about winning. A few think keeping their titles where they keep doing an incompetent job is more important than having a serious GOP in Illinois.
GOP candidates are headed for an across the board wipeout. All we can do is witness at this point.
Good going Andy McKenna. Hope you at least get a pat on the head from daddy’s Dem friends.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 6:36 am:
Well this poll program you have is better than the one you have used in the past. Last time I was able to vote four times. This time it only let me vote once!
I voted 1-5. Many of my fellow attorneys who are die-hard Democrats are claiming that they cannot bring themselves to vote for Obama. After attending two attorney conferences I don’t think I’m out on a limb here. I also attended several ethnic functions, one latino and the other Greek-American and many of those ethnic voters seem to be saying the same thing. I think the margin in Illinois will be much tighter than any of us realize given the dynamics of race and Obama’s liberalism and perception that he will be weak on foreign policy and military matters.
Illinois may look progressive on race, (Obama, Jones, Stroger) but the reality is that we still have a long way to go.
- Loop Lady - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:14 am:
Duh!!
- OneMan - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:27 am:
Not quite as huge as you would think, I suspect there is going to end up being a bit of ‘Obama Fatigue’ in Illinois when this is all said and done. Some folks are going to hit him hard, something he really hasn’t had in Illinois and it is going to hurt his standing with some folks.
- Captain America - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:53 am:
Landslide victory for Obama in Illinois - many Republicans will stay home because of discouragement/disllusionment with Bush and the Republican Party.
- Amuzing Myself - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:16 am:
He’ll win by about the same margin as other Democrats do in Illinois in Presidential elections. His increase in any “new” voters turning out, I think, will be offset by a higher-than-normal number of Independent voters going for McCain on the issue of National Security and being OK with it because of his reputation as a moderate. Obama’s numbers will likely be a little lower than they could be if the GOP pounds on the Governor and the Democratic Party in general, but it remains to be seen if they can do anything effectively as a party.
- Ghost - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:23 am:
I guessed 15-20 point victory as a conservative guess. I think the donwstate folks who voted for alan keys will be out in force and hold is margin down a bit.
- Rezko redux - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:32 am:
I believe the Rezko connection will be play up on by the “swift boaters” in the GOP. In reality, Obama talks the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk (except he will walk away from 20 year relationships to distance himself from his roots and potential controversy, which most people don’t respect). Unfortunately, he won’t be able to walk away from his Faustian deal(s) made with the Rezko.
- Snidely Whiplash - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:40 am:
Unless Rezko and Wright are made to stick to Sen. Teflon as they would to anyone else, 20+ points, easily.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 8:53 am:
I’d put the Over-Under at 15 points, and I went with the over.
Record African American turnout, college turnout, and McCain’s non-existent ground game will contribute, not to mention the fact that every Democrat will have Obama on their literature.
- Wumpus - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:01 am:
Obama will win in a landslide in IL. Blago was voted in twice, so on and so forth. He may not be qualified IMO, but he is an affable guy, who captivates and motivates people.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:02 am:
I’m w/ YDD. Although, I went a bit under.
I have been disappointed by the undercurrent of racism that has popped up, but it is overcome by benefit many voters will hope to attain by having “our guy” as president.
I also think McCain’s age will become a big factor and Obama will lay out the conservative part of McCain’s voting record to bring the independents into the fold.
(I would not be surprised if the margin ends up being 20+, but the pessimist in me pushed the vote button.)
- Belle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:15 am:
Why are so many people surprised by racism showing up? All political correctness achieved was the silencing of people deemed to have non-politically correct views. In effect, it put us about 30 years behind where we could be by now. BTW, racists come in all races.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:17 am:
Belle, blaming a few admittedly goofy PC standards for the existence of idiotic racists is beyond ridiculous.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:18 am:
Really big or really close…nothing in between.
- Vote Quimby! - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:26 am:
I predict record turnout in Chi & ESL and Obama wins Illinois 65-30.
Sorry Ghost, I think the Keyes-backers are going to sit this one out….
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:26 am:
I voted for Obama twice, I voted for Carol Mosely Braun twice, I voted for Mel Reynolds and Jesse Jackson Jr.
But by any presidential standards, Obama falls frightenly short. He has been nothing but a part-timer in the State Senate, and US Senate. While I am obviously a color-blind voter, I am not a blind voter.
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:28 am:
15-20 points. Big among African-Americans, suburban GOP women. Less than you might think among white, blue-collar Dems Jews and Hispanics. Every presidential vote is between the 40 yard lines. A 15-20 point win in Illinois is still huge.
Some GOP stalwarts up this morning.
- anon - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:39 am:
I love that 27% of voters think that McCain will win. Isnt this the same percentage of wing nuts who voted for Alan Keyes? What are they smoking?
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:41 am:
I went with 15-20. I’d imagine it’s going to be at least larger than 10pts regardless.
Despite what Louis and Vanilla are claiming about some sort of “Obama fatigue”… there is no evidence of that in light of the recently completed Dem primary. In fact, just the opposite is occurring as many polls show him getting a bounce out of last week.
On the other hand, all but the most die-hard partisan Republicans (distinct from partisan conservatives) are already showing McCain fatigue as the large contingent of GOPs panning his Tuesday “cottage cheese in lime jello” speech illustrate.
- Dirt Guy - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:45 am:
I had to go with 10-15% just because of the Illinois connection. IMO the “Obama Fatigue” will hit home big. That and people realizing that they have been backing someone they know little about, and that Obama has precious little experience.
When I see a column by Mary Schmich gushing all over Obama, for no reason she can explain, one knows that people will wake up someday and say to themselves “why the hype?”
Obama said it best when he described himself as an ink blot test, people see different things in me.
- Vote Quimby! - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:47 am:
Most Keyes-backers will probably be writing in Ron Paul to make Obama’s win over McCain even larger.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:53 am:
===I love that 27% of voters think that McCain will win.===
I figured it would be a bit higher than that.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 9:58 am:
I didn’t say anything about Obama fatigue. I expect him to continue to climb in the polls until after the Republican convention.
That is the normal presidential cycle for Democrats. Up big until the Republican convention, they polls show a more realistic result at Labor Day with the GOP polling 4% below final results in November.
I think Obama will have a Carter summer. Carter was able to lose 28 points and still pull it out. We’ll see if Obama can do the same.
I don’t see “fatigue”. He is extremely interesting and voters will favor him for a long time. His problem will be buyer’s remorse by Labor Day. He has had this problem since March, but he’ll get a great bounce after Denver, then he’ll start sliding again…
Obama in Illinois? He should win by at least 10% here.
- Anonymous45 - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:06 am:
Barack will win by 15-20 points…the downstate vote in all areas except college towns will see a strong showing by McCain…folks in IL should concentrate their efforts on winning MI and WI for Obama…
- Anon - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:13 am:
“===I love that 27% of voters think that McCain will win.===
I figured it would be a bit higher than that.”
I appreciate that there are a lot of people in this State who really, really want McCain to win, and no one ever knows what tomorrow will bring, especially in electoral politics. But shouldn’t anyone who predicts a McCain victory without a plausible explanation (i.e., a nefarious plot by VP Cheney to disenfranchise everyone to the left of William Howard Taft — hey, it could happen!) have an asterisk or some other warning sign place on all future posts to let people know that their opinions might be a little other-worldly?
- Belle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:15 am:
Rich - It might be ridiculous to you to blame the PC standards, but they sure as heck didn’t help anything. I had hoped the issue could have been resolved, for the most part, in my lifetime. The issue does go deeper, and unless people feel they are free to say what they think on this subject nothing will get done. And I find that very upsetting.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:20 am:
Vanilla Man, don’t feel bad. I didn’t mention fatigue either. But there seems to be a pattern of the Obama hype not translating into the votes the way the hype claims. Reservations about him still exist and they do not seem to be going away.
That’s why I was conservative in predicting his margin of victory.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:24 am:
So, the way we get rid of racism is to just sit nicely and silently by while the racists rant? I don’t get your point.
Racism and bigotry are wrong. I wasn’t raised to ignore wrongs. Perhaps you were.
- Napoleon has left the building - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:38 am:
I voted 15-20. If it were a competitive state and both campaigns were spending money here and were trying to win here, maybe it would be closer or more competitive - but that’s not going to happen.
Home states tend to vote real big for their guys in a Presidential election. Happened for George Bush in Texas too.
- GofGlenview - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 10:54 am:
VM Said “I voted for Obama twice”
and that ain’t the record…
I voted 10-15 points. Obama will win clearly just like Blago won despite all his scandals. The public just doesn’t care about corruption until sentencing arrives.
- Belle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:12 am:
Rich that is not what I’m saying! The point is I believe more progress could have been made had communication not been stifled by the fear of offending someone. EVERYONE should have been talking all along is my point! Do not EVER insinuate my upbringing was racist. It most definately was not.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:14 am:
Sorry, racists and bigots offend me. And those who make racist and bigoted remarks should know that if they open their stupid mouths there are going to be consequences. Period. Let ‘em talk, but let ‘em accept the responsibility for it. That’s freedom.
- Plutocrat03 - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:19 am:
BO is from Illinois and as such will win IL regardless of what happens nationally.
I may have blinders on, but I do not believe that racism on the side of the ‘white’ (whatever that is) population will be a dominant element in the remaining portion of the election. The media reports of racism seem to be more of a campaign tactic (both of the democratic sides) than any deep seated belief. I am sure there are fringe elements out there, but they exist at the margins of our society and will play a minor influence.
His success to date has been running as a cypher who represents change about anything that the voter is unhappy with. As long as he can maintain that posture, he will also be successful nationally. However if the campaign starts pushing for specifics he will have to say that the solution to xxx is a,b,c and then things get murky.
It will be interesting to hear who will support BO’s plan to improve the economy by raising taxes.
- Little Egypt - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:19 am:
If I had to vote today for president, I would have to toss a coin. I think McCain’s age and experience are a plus. I like his military background. I DON’T like that he wants to stay in Iraq for heaven knows how long. And I certainly don’t want to see Little Little E #1 go back to Iraq (however LLE1 says if it’s not Iraq, it will be Iran, but I digress).
I like Obama, I like his youth, I like the fact that he is not a long-term politician (yet), I adore his wife, and I think he is a great speaker. He’s going to need a very strong cabinet and will need a crash course in diplomacy at this very high level. Militarily, I am concerned about what will happen to our troops should Obama come up with a sudden withdrawal.
With that all said, I am ever so slightly leaning Obama. Elections are always a surprise and I just can’t see Obama taking Illinois in a landslide. We have to factor in Hillary’s people and no one knows at this point how many will stay or defect.
- Belle - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:23 am:
Rich, They deeply offend me as well. I’ve never understood the mindset. I still believe we could have found more middle ground, and eliminated more misconceptions, than we have at this point if we had continued a conversation as a nation. We aren’t going to get into a ‘who’s more offended’ by racism argument here are we?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:30 am:
We’ve had a long conversation about racism in this country that goes back eons. I cannot fathom why you think we haven’t.
There are those who say they are against affirmative action and the reactionaries who cry racism at that sort of thing. I’ve denounced those goofs, too. In fact, a column of mine denouncing that sort of knee-jerk reactionary response contributed to a picketing of the Sun-Times a couple months ago.
If a person feels that his/her views on race are unacceptable and so s/he can’t talk about them, that says more about the person and the views in question than everyone else. It’s not my problem if somebody feels stifled. Speak away. But it’s a two-way street.
- Lefty Lefty - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:32 am:
Obama’s gonna trounce McCain in IL. Once the real campaign starts, and more people know that McCain is a flip-flopping, lobbyist-loving, war-mongering, deficit-raising, anti-choice, pro-Patriot Act, anti-environment career politician who loves Washington exactly the way it is now–ouch. Especially in IL.
- nonewtaxes - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:37 am:
So if it’s racist that a white person won’t vote for Obama because he is black, isn’t equally as racist that 95% of black people are voting for him solely because he is black?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:38 am:
LOL. There’s no arguing with people like you. My advice is to go away now.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:40 am:
OK, that was unfair. But what planet are you from? You’re comparing voting for and against. Big difference, don’t you think?
- the Patriot - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:41 am:
Obama wins because of Chicago. In the End, McCain is close because:
1. People downstate elected Obama the great and instead, got Obama a presidential canditate who has yet to show up for work. You don’t ask for a leave of absense on your first day on the job and expect the boss to be happen about you moving on.
2. Conservative Union voters will start to see that the, “change” means traditional union democrats have a smaller slice of the Pie in the Democrat party. They may vote for a liberal who will include them, but not for one who is blatently has explicitly told them he is moving the party away from them.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:47 am:
tp, just for future reference, if you claim to have great insights into how Democratic Party voters are gonna react, don’t tip your hand otherwise by calling it the Democrat Party. Just sayin
- nonewtaxes - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:49 am:
No voting for someone based on race is just as collective a mindset as voting against someone for the same reason.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:52 am:
Nah, you’re talking about two different things.
For instance, an Italian-American might prefer to vote for another Italian-American who leans his/her way on many issues and is of the same party. That’s perfectly acceptable in politics. But, if the Italian-American says s/he will not vote for an Irish-American under any circumstances, then that’s bigotry.
But I don’t expect you to understand.
- ZC - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:59 am:
nonewtaxes, black voters are voting for Obama because they figure he will advocate a strong line on government aid for education, health care, funding for inner cities, crime prevention, etc. They also like Obama’s out-of-Iraq policy. These are the kinds of reasons why black voters have been voting overwhelmingly Democratic. If you reversed McCain’s and Obama’s policy stances on all the above issues, I guarantee you would see a lot of black voters going for McCain - which would mean they are _not_ voting just based on race.
Strangely enough, the black vote in Illinois didn’t split 50-50 between Obama and Alan Keyes. “They’re both black; guess I’ll flip a coin …”
- anon - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:03 pm:
It’s semantics, isn’t it? Voting “for” a person implies you are voting “against” an opponent, if there is one. Voting for someone solely because of his/her gender or ethnicity is as irrational as voting against her/him for the same reason.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:05 pm:
Yeah, but nobody said anything about voting for someone solely for his/her race/gender/creed/etc. There’s more to it than that, so your argument is false.
On the other hand, voting against someone because of his/her race/gender/creed is definitely a part of this equation.
- Sacks Romana - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:11 pm:
Obama by 20+. I can’t see him getting any less than 60%. People have to remember that while Alan Keyes was ridiculous, there was a large time period in there while Jack Ryan was out and Keeyes wasn’t even in yet. Obama took that opportunity to vist all around central and southern Illinois. And not just to places like Champaign and Carbondale. He went into small towns of 10,000-20,000 or less people that hadn’t seen a US Senate candidate in decades. The people there remember that, and they’re not going to pass up the opportunity to tell their kids and grandkids that the President of the USA sat in their neighbor’s livingroom with them and ate snacks.
Oh yeah, record turnout for AAs, young people, people voting for a native son, and all the rest of the usual demographic stuff. McCain’s lucky if he gets a majority of voters who use their senior cards on the early bird special at Bob Evans.
- cermak_rd - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:13 pm:
I picked 20-25%. I think the Keyes line (the Mendoza line for IL politics) prevents anyone from ever getting less than 29% of the vote if they’re playing for one of the big two parties. McCain will do better than Keyes because he appears to be sane. However, McCain is not going to bother campaigning or competing in IL unless he gets a lot more money in his campaign coffers.
- True Believer - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:17 pm:
McCAIN will win because:
1) People are starting to realize that Obama is a sham.
2) ALL of Hillary’s supporters are UPSET and HORRIFIED with Obama stealing the nomination from her. (I didn’t think this was the case at first but talking to Hillary supporters on the street has been shocking and eye-opening.) McCain will forge a coalition of Republicans, independents, and the 30% of Democrats in Illinois who voted for Hillary and he will TAKE Illinois by a small but comfortable margin.
The GOP will take IL back from the Democrat Party for good this year. People are sick and tired of Obama’s divisive politics and love and admire McCain’s record of heroic service to his nation. Everyone realizes that if McCain had been president for the past 8 years, we would have already won the war in Iraq and our troops would be safe at home today. But most realize that the Obama way of phased troop withdrawal is a recipe for disaster.
Increasingly, people are rejecting the cut and run politics of Obama, who would expand health care to the poor on the backs of the capital-holders. No American believes in that kind of unfairness. That’s not change we can believe in — and Illinois knows it!
- Amy - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:18 pm:
i’d rather just start a list of all the people we want to see
leave when Obama becomes president. like ship out…..
Ronen, Claypool, Emil….. now that is worth spending
time on.
- Anon - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
Rich — I was just kidding about putting an asterisk on future posts by anyone picking McCain, and I don’t know whether True Believer is kidding now, but I now nominate him as the first recipient of the True Believer ™ Asterisk for posters who let their hearts get too far ahead of their heads!
- cermak_rd - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 1:02 pm:
Given the name, I was thinking it was some kind of blog performance art. Kind of like Baghdad Bob but without the brutal connexions.
- True Believer - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 1:16 pm:
The only people who are divorced from reality are those who believe Obama will be our next president. Sorry folks, but the writing is clearly on the wall.
Sure, Obama will win the liberal enclaves on the west coast and the upper crust areas of New England, but mainstream America (including the great state of Illinois) is going to reject Obama’s brand of out of control change and vote for a steady leader we can believe in: John McCain.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 1:26 pm:
McGovern and Gore lost their home states when they ran for president. This is an unusual result.
It is highly unlikely to see Illinois, Vermont, Hawaii, or DC not give Obama a majority of their votes. He is running 30 points ahead of McCain in these states/district, so it will take an unforseen disaster for Obama to lose here/there.
Today’s state-by-state poll results show McCain winning with 286 electoral votes, and losing the popular vote by 1.75%.
It is highly unlikely for Obama to lose Illinois. He will lose everywhere else before he loses here.
- Lefty Lefty - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 2:21 pm:
It has to be said again and again until it gets through the skulls of every sane Democrat: if you supported Clinton, you must vote for Obama. It would be a crime against your liberal/centrist souls (and your children’s futures) to vote for McCain.
As I wrote this I realized that I may be assuming a bit that most Democrats are sane. In any event….
- ZC - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 2:24 pm:
I’m going with 15-20. Polls are pretty useless at this stage of the general. Kerry won Illinois by 11 points in 2004. I think the favorite son will do at least 4 points better than Kerry.
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 3:11 pm:
Sorry VanillaMan… That should’ve been “Louis and OneMan” in my earlier post.
A sweet spice… A single digit… What’s the diff?…
–
True… The oddity of your “projecting” post speaks for itself.
We’ve had “out of control change” for the last 7 1/2 years under the label of “compassionate conservatism”. It was neither, clearly.
Despite his denials and throwing his president under the bus, McCain is offering another 4 years of “out of control change” in the form of hackneyed attempts at repealing as much of the New Deal, Great Society, etc. as he and his conservative partisan lobbyists can.
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 3:15 pm:
PS Vanilla,
What “state-by-state” polling are you looking at?
Gallup has Obama up nationally by 6 (48-42) over McCain. And many states haven’t been polled individually in a while by the same polling outfit.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 3:21 pm:
Rob asks a good question. I just went to pollster.com and couldn’t find anything. Where are those numbers, VM?
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 3:59 pm:
While Vanilla is looking for those magic numbers, I should clarify…
I meant that the same company has not polled all states in some time (though they may start to do so regularly now).
Instead, folks have tried interpreting a hodgepodge of state polls from various outfits, some more recent or more complete than others.
Poblano had been showing McCain up for a bit, but his research was done based on “dirty” or “stale” numbers in a lot of cases. And his research no longer reflects those scenarios as he now shows Obama with 273 EVs to McCain’s 265 (I’m rounding) based on a statistical 50/50 popular vote.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:25 pm:
My only question is whether we hit 1,000 respondents before 5 o’clock.
- Big W - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:25 pm:
too much truth Rich, or what? sorry, did not mean to offend you!
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:26 pm:
Not sure what you’re talking about.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:28 pm:
But, as I await your reply, I should point out that whenever somebody believes they are in possession of “too much truth,” I always figure they’re chock full of something else.
- Big W - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:28 pm:
I was deleted and not sure of the reason?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:29 pm:
Not by me.
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:40 pm:
Rich,
Seems to be a bug. It happens randomly every now and then to me too (and I’m supposed to be a poodle, remember?).
When I try reposting or copying and pasting into a new post, I get the “Oops. It looks like you already said that.” message.
Obviously, there’s a conspiracy against Big W and I. Obviously.
- irishpirate/superfan - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:42 pm:
Obama will win with 105% of the vote. Unless McCain picks Ditka as his running mate. Then Ditka/McCain 99.99 percent to .01 percent for Obama/Favre
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:44 pm:
I think it’s the Akismet spam-blocker. Lots of false positives lately.
btw, we passed 1K
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:48 pm:
To the person posting as “Bill” we already have a Bill. Pick a new name. You should know this considering your IP address.
But as for your post…
===As far as racist comments are concerned, Rich, you’re a typical liberal - talking about freedom of speech, but when someone’s comments don’t agree with yours, out comes the name calling and the denigrating, a direct contradiction of the tolerance and diversity rhetoric that you liberals preach. That is the liberal way, though, isn’t it? Do as I say, not as I do….===
Actually, that IS free speech. You say what you want, and then I say what I want. I don’t understand how you can be so unclear on that very basic concept.
Free speech is for you AND for me. I get to say what I want about your ridiculous ranting. See? That’s freedom, baby!!!
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 4:55 pm:
Just one more time to be clear…
You are free in a free society to say what you want, but you also must know that in a free society I am free to call you an absolute freaking moron.
Don’t like it? Move to a country where that particular “freedom” is a one-way street. I’m sure we can find a spot for you.
- phocion - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 5:08 pm:
Rich, you’re being very patient today. Who doesn’t agree racism is bad? So is sexism. So is ageism. When the last two become as socially taboo as racism, we’d all be much better off. I say it’s still ok to discriminate against fat and ugly people. But I digress. Obama will get more than 65% of the vote in Illinois - even if the alleged “Michelle tape” is the October Surprise this year. Oh, and here’s the site for the electoral college, state by state polling. http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Keep it handy, Rich.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 5:12 pm:
===Who doesn’t agree racism is bad?===
The problem is that some people think that their bigoted remarks ought to be immune from all criticism, which is beyond bizarre. Anyway, thanks for the link. I’ve bookmarked it and will look at it later.
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 6:24 pm:
Phocion,
The much-hyped, never-actually-made-public “Michelle Tape” is a hoax. The entire thing matched, nearly word for word, part of the plot of a recent (fiction) novel by Stephen Frey called “The Power Broker”.
Go figure — someone critical of Obama lied about his wife. Whodathunkit?
The silver lining is that even several conservative partisans were appalled by the crass lying. Malkan panned the hyping, and it was a National Review blogger that noticed the similarity to the plot of “The Power Broker”.
(Sorry for going OT.)
–
Rich, the spam blocker is likely picking up quantity of links. More than about 2 links and most filters snag posts. You should be able to adjust it to allow for folks who like to source their material.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 6:26 pm:
I shut it off for now. The spam was only appearing on old comments, which are closed anyway. So we’ll see what happens now that Akismet is no longer blocking.
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 6:28 pm:
Vanilla (and Phocion),
The electoral-vote.com map Phocion linked to shows Obama at 287 EVs to McCain’s 227 (with 24 EVs tied) as of today.
So, again, where’d you get your numbers VM?
- Bill - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 6:47 pm:
VM just makes that stuff up. Its background noise.
- David - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:04 pm:
Rich - It appears that my comments have been deleted. May I ask what the problem is?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:05 pm:
Not sure. When did you post?
- David - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:05 pm:
6:08
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:06 pm:
Spam blocker is acting up. You might try again.
- David - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 7:07 pm:
Thanks.
- GOP'er - Monday, Jun 9, 08 @ 11:02 pm:
With regard to Republican prospects in Illinois, from McCain down to the county dogcatcher candidates, I think Mr. T’s character Clubber Lang from Rocky II (or was it III?) said it best:
“My prediction….pain.”
The Illinois GOP proved this weekend at its state convention that it’s not even serious about winning. A few think keeping their titles where they keep doing an incompetent job is more important than having a serious GOP in Illinois.
GOP candidates are headed for an across the board wipeout. All we can do is witness at this point.
Good going Andy McKenna. Hope you at least get a pat on the head from daddy’s Dem friends.
- Patriot - Tuesday, Jun 10, 08 @ 9:57 am:
Illinois is the most predictable state in the union. Obama will win by 20+ points. Voters outside of Cook County will never have the majority vote.