Question of the day
Wednesday, Jun 25, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The setup…
Bill Daley is apparently looking to scratch his life-long political itch. He’s sounding out Democrats and big-time fundraisers about the 2010 race, as first disclosed by Chicago Sun-Times columnist Rich Miller in his “Capitol Fax” newsletter.
“It’s something he’s seriously considering,” said a source familiar with the discussions. Bill Daley bowed out in 2002 because, “His kids didn’t want him to do it. They’re more supportive now,” the source said.
The political landscape has changed a lot, too, since 2002. Federal investigators are swarming all over the Blagojevich administration; the governor’s former fund-raiser Tony Rezko is a convicted felon, and Mell now is estranged from his son-in-law.
Mayor Daley and Blagojevich have spent the last six years clashing over everything from education and CTA funding to casino gambling and business taxes.
I’ve talked to Daley twice in the past week, and I’m willing to take him at his word when he repeatedly insists that he has zero interest in the US Senate or any other position. This is, he says, the only job he’s looking at - a capstone to a long political and business career.
* The question: What do you think the odds are that Bill Daley actually runs for governor?
* Bonus question: Can he win?
Explain.
- Lou - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:03 am:
The question is: Can Daley get the Central and Southern Illiois organizations to carry his water?
After 6 years of a Chicago Governor, I question that.
But I can’t name a downstate alternative.
- Speaking At Will - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:05 am:
I think it is very likely that he makes a run at the governors office. However the possibility of him winning will be slim to none. The Daley machine might be strong in Chicago, but I dont think the people of Illinois could stomach the idea of a Daley as Mayor of Chicago and as Governor of the state. The idea of a Chicago centric government is already in the minds of most people outside the collar counties, this would only cement that idea in peoples minds.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:10 am:
Daley is also the subject of a number o investigation which taints any action by Bill. I think it in part depends on what madigan announces this fall. If madigan runs, I’d say Bill decides to forgo trying to make a run against her. If Madigan decides not to run, then I think he goes for it.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:12 am:
Forgot the second part
If Bill runs against madigan he loses. She has far better press and recognition State wide. Add in that the Daley name and various investigation of the mayors office, and he loses big time. If Lisa Madigan does not run it become a tougher fight with Hynes; a lot closer call. At this point I would give that fight to hines. I think donwstae the aley name is a negative not a positive.
- Redbright - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:13 am:
Will he run? You’ve already put him in play. (And I’m sure he is glad about that - seriously. It beats having to go on TV like Vallas did.)
We have just gone thru a primary race that showed that the first person to claim the party VIPs is likely to be the winner. (Obviously that did not work for Hil but it almost did.)
Those party leaders now know that Bill has added his name to the list along with Paul and Lisa. One of the three will have to blink soon and aggresively go after the supporters.
Can he win? Maybe; his name is the weakest link (starting in Chicago). I do think a Dem can win despite Blago.
- scoot - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:15 am:
A 30% chance he runs in 2010. In Sub Cook and the collars he would be a tough sale..and outside the collars it would be difficult to garner support. Another Chicago Democrat (Daley) replacing a Chicago Democrat (Blago) who ran the state into the ground and buried it and who just happens to be the Mayors brother. Why would the citizens of Illinois want the Daley clan to control everything.
I also think he would have a tough time winning a crowded primary. 2010 might not be his time…but maybe he already missed his time.
- overpar - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:18 am:
Not a chance of running for Governor. Win or Lose, Bill’s entrance into the race will severely and maybe fatally hurt HIZZONER’s reelection. It’s always been all about Rich being Mayor for as long as Rich wants to be Mayor..
- Levois - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:18 am:
I’ll give it 40% that he does. And whether or not he wins depends on how Republicans can capitalize on the current troubles of the state Democratic party. I don’t have much faith they can.
- BandCamp - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:19 am:
When Rod first ran for Governor, I remember the field being so big you could hardly fit all the candidates in a camera frame. I see the primary in the next election much the same way. The field will be filled with “reformers” and the such. Daley, if he is one of them, will be hard pressed to separate himself from the Mayor and the city of Chicago. I think it’s great he is stirring the pot now, but it is way too early to think about him running for governor right now. I don’t even think he will be in the primary. I can’t predict what happens with the current Governor and the federal investigation, and neither can anyone else. Once that shakes out, we’ll have a better idea who will be running for the top spot. If Lisa is in the mix, I don’t think Daley will run.
So, no, I don’t think he’ll run, and even if he did, he’s not winning. But since there’s not a Resko trial, I guess it’s the only news to talk about right now.
- Shelbyville - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:20 am:
We have already found out that Cook County voters can elect anyone they want as Governor.
Most people from out of state believe that a Daley is governor of IL., anyway.
But, does he have any interest in governing the whole state? Has he even been in any of those counties?
- 2for2 - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:21 am:
I think it is unlikely he will run. Less than 20% It doesnt seem to me the Mayor wants to have this happen. He told me that. Kidding.
I think he can win but it will be much tougher race than he thinks. This might be the worst environment for him to run in. On paper he would be one of the favorites. My gut says he would lose to any of the sitting statewide officeholders except maybe Quinn.
- 2for2 - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:23 am:
Shelbyville, remember the reason we have Rod in the first place is because downstate carried him in the Primary in 2002.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:28 am:
2for2, there were a lot of reasons. Roland Burris’ quixotic candidacy stripped Vallas of African-American votes he believed he could win. Fatal. But it wasn’t really “downstate” that put Rod over the top. It was Metro East. Big difference.
- Steve - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:29 am:
Bill Daley’s odds of running are probably 30%.If he does run, his chance of winning is 50%.A familiar name in politics is worth a lot.He might not want to run though because the negative connotation of democracy degenerating into a mini-monarchy might be much for some.With the U.S. Attorney’s Office asking Robert Sorich questions about John Daley in front of a grand jury and Mayor Daley being interviewed by the Feds for a couple of hours:Bill Daley might take a pass.
- Plutocrat03 - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:29 am:
I believe that he will not run. Governing is hard work and a good position waits for him in a BHO administration.
Republicans could have a shot for Governor if he does choose to run. I do not think the collar counties or downstate want a continuation of Chicago control. Its all in the numbers. While the City itself is shrinking, it still has a solid block of nearly 3 million voters plus the Daley machine stalwarts who have moved to better places to live, but still believe in the manna that falls from the Daley administration’s sky.
- Old Shepherd - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:36 am:
I certainly don’t see downstate or Southern Illinois supporting a Daley for Governor. However, that doesn’t amount to a hill of beans since 75% of the state’s voters can see the Sears Tower on a clear day. It will be up to Chicagoland to decide if we want a Daley mayor and a Daley governor.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:38 am:
Bill Daley is a patient politician. So he should be in no hurry at this point to expect Illinoians to vote in anyone named Daley at this time.
I trust that the staffers he hires to work up the prerequisite reports on voter acceptance will reveal to him this natural handicap.
As long as his brother is mayor, voters will be lukewarm to another Daley in a key government position, especially governor. The old man was legendary, the son has overstayed his welcome but remains in power, so please no more Daleys in elected office right now.
- Dan S, a voter and Cubs Fan - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:40 am:
IMO, I could not see him getting out of the primary and if he did Satan would be snow skiing before I would vote for another Chicago Politician as Governor. Any candidate for Governor in this state should be required to have a current FBI, CIA or any other backround check done before they make the ballot. The office of Governor in this state seems to be a steping stone to “club fed”.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:42 am:
Oh and I keep forgetting this, (we always focus on that last name!)
No damn SBC Governor! Bill Daley’s opponents just need to remind voters how he put his SBC flunkies into office throughout the Blagojevich administration. This resulted in Illinoians getting royally shafted!
So not only is his last name a problem right now, you got a guy running a company with such negative press and with such hatred over lousy services, they changed their name!
- Wumpus - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:46 am:
He can win, but with Little Lisa going hard after COuntry Wide, she upped the ante! The evil mortgage lender is all too good of a bad guy (much of it is deserved). Just what we need, a battle over dynasties!
- johnnyc - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:47 am:
Overpar,how exactly would he hurt the Mayor’s reelction big in 2011? I would venture to guess that the Mayor is pretty safe (see 2007 election results).
Pluto, what position would BD be looking for an Obama admin? He was already Sec of Commerce.
I can see him making the run because he has been widley successful at everything he’s done (Sec of Comm, CEO of SBC, top exec at JP Morgan) and governing is in his blood. I would say 33% chance he makes the race depending on who is in it. But if he does, it will be b/c the Daleys have made the calculation he can win. Which make me think, if in, his chances will be about 40%.
- Steve - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:52 am:
Not only would Bill Daley have the Democratic Machine behind him but major corporate donors because of his time in the private sector.That’s a powerful combination,if he wants to run.
- True Observer - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:00 pm:
Assuming for the sake of argument it comes down to:
Daley
a Black Candidate
Blago
1. If strong black, Blago wins.
2. If weak black, Daley wins.
3. If Jesse, 3 way toss up.
- anon - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:02 pm:
Bill Daley does not run, though feelers may be put out, as apparently they already have been. Lisa Madigan does not run either, not this next time around.
Maybe B. Daley could win but he carries a lot of baggage and I don’t think he gets the same downstate support the current Governor received last time (notably Quad Cities area and Metro East).
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:02 pm:
TO, the problem is who would you consider to be a strong black candidate? I don’t see any out there at the moment.
- Steve - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:08 pm:
If and this is only if.. Obama loses,he could come back and run for Governor unless the Rezko investigation takes on a whole new level.
- Captain America - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:08 pm:
Bill Daley appears to be very formidable to me - it would be difficult,if not impossble, for Lisa or Dan to beat him. I can’t think of any Republican who could beat him either.
What voters will be looking for is stability and competence, not ideology. Bill Daley would meet thos criteria - I’ve always thought that he was sharper than the Mayor. Unless he’s really wearied of his role as a behind-the-scenes mover and shaker, I don’t expect him to run. I’m not sure why he would eant the grief.
- True Observer - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:11 pm:
Upon further reflection, we can fill in the black candidate spot.
It will be Jesse because Mrs. Jesse can take over his seat in the House.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:13 pm:
Guess he’s no longer worried about the skeletons in the closet that shut down his last attempted bid?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:21 pm:
Bill Daley will run if his poll numbers tell him he can win the primary. I think his poll numbers will tell him he can win the primary, but those poll numbers won’t reflect voter concerns over too much power in the Daley family hands. That will be a deep concern for voters, but it won’t cement until close to election day.
In other words, Daley will run, and Daley will lose.
Odds of Rod Blagojevich running for re-election now are probably down to 75%. We’ll know better when we see his campaign finance reports.
Odds of Lisa Madigan running are about the same. I’d say they’ve increased over the last six months.
Pat Quinn’s odds decline as Lisa’s rise. If Quinn was smart, he’d endorse Lisa and run for re-election.
I’m not sure Vallas’ brand is what it was, but he could try to quickly re-establish it as “The Education Governor” if he can raise the money. His biggest challenge, however, is his legacy at the Chicago Public Schools. Despite all the hooplah, CPS test scores haven’t improved markedly since chicago school reform began in 1995, graduation rates are horrid, and so are college admissions.
70% of chicagoans are dissatisfied with CPS. Big problem for Paul. Even fewer folks outside of Chicago want their school district to end up looking like CPS.
True Observer raises an interesting question: will an Obama prototype run? Jesse Jackson Jr. doesn’t fit that mold, and I’m not really sure that anyone but Sen. Raoul does.
- fedup dem - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:23 pm:
All I can say is that if the baby brother of Mayor “DINO” Daley wants a truthful slogan for a gubernatorial campaign, he better go with:
“Bill Daley - A Legend in His Own Mind!”
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
Something missing here. The Daley, Madigan and Hynes clans won’t fight it out in the same primary. Doesn’t compute.
There has been, or will have to be, some grand meeting of the South Side Irish Clans to anoint the dynastic scion for governor.
At this time, I believe the chosen one of the Irish nobility will win the Dem nomination and election. My bet’s still on Lisa.
Obama losing the presidential alters the equation in that he might want the job. I don’t believe Blago will run, and I don’t think Vallas will run a credible campaign if he enters.
It would be good form to find someone from outside 312 for the ticket, don’t you think?
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 12:56 pm:
A lot of Democrats question the job Daley did with Gore. He’s not held in the high regard that he once was.
For what it is worth — the rumor that I’m hearing is that Vallas is going to run as a Republican. If he somehow would get that nod, he would be tough for any Dem to beat (including Hynes and Madigan).
- decaturvoter - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:08 pm:
we Democrats need unity with only one candidate to end the era of Blago madness.
Blago will not win again unless the votes come from north of I-80 noly. No sane real downstater will vote for him again.
I am proud Democratic voter that hanot voted for him yet.
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:10 pm:
Not to digress –
But YDD is right. Kwame Raoul would make an outstanding candidate. Although Obama is one of a kind, Kwame has many of those same qualities. He also should be mentioned as one of the potential candidates for Obama’s senate seat.
- He Gone - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:15 pm:
What would be worse for Illinois voters. Having a governor who is the daughter of the Speaker of the House and chair of the Dem party. Or having a governor who is the brother of the mayor of Chicago and holds a ton of power in that city and county.
The fact is, the Madigan’s would have way more power if they win then compared to the Daley’s. I think the general consensus is that the Madigan’s aren’t as corrupt as the Daley Machine.
Like a lot of people have said, it all depends on if Obama wins. He wins, I think Daley will run and he will probably win because of the money and because Obama and Mike Madigan don’t get along.
- Kevin Fanning - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:21 pm:
===He wins, I think Daley will run and he will probably win because of the money and because Obama and Mike Madigan don’t get along.===
How does Daley fit into that?
- Captain America - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:34 pm:
I’ve only met Kwame Raoul once. He seemed like a really outstanding guy to me - someone that Democrats could be proud to support in the future for a much higher office. I agree with YDD and Skeeter.
- Vote Quimby! - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:51 pm:
==But it wasn’t really “downstate” that put Rod over the top. It was Metro East. Big difference.==
We can blame that one on Jay Hoffman.
- BandCamp - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:52 pm:
OK. Obama isn’t giving up his Senate Seat and if he loses in November, why in the world would he want to be Governor?? He’s young and there’s no reason to believe he cannot make another run at the White House. That whole Daley, Madigan, Hynes meeting seems more credible to be me, and Daley isn’t coming out of that one as the winner.
Governor Obama. Ha. What a demotion.
- 2for2 - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 1:55 pm:
Rich,
I see your larger point on metro east. However, by my count Blago beat Vallas in every downstate county. Now Burris won a few as well. Blago’s victories over Vallas in Winnebago and Rock Island were as large as Madison/St.Clair. Oh well, who cares, there is plenty of fault to go around. lol.
- He Gone - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:17 pm:
Kevin,
If Obama wins the Prez, he will no longer be a threat to run for Governor, or Mayor. Therefore, he will repay Bill Daley for being one of his first advisors who left the Clinton camp, by campaigning for Bill Daley for Governor. He would also help with fundraising, not that Bill Daley would need the help.
Madigan didn’t endorse Obama (along with a lot of other folks, besides Tom Dart), but he also desperately tried hard not to get Alexi elected to the Treasurer’s office. I think Obama likes going against Madigan.
- Kevin Fanning - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:22 pm:
Interesting. Second part of what you said makes sense, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard any speculation that Obama would run for Mayor if he lost the presidential race.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:30 pm:
Band Camp, if Obama loses, there are a few reasons why he might run for governor.
1. Get his executive experience ticket punched.
2. Be the Big Dog, not one of 100.
3. Avoid the “gotcha” of tough votes that are inevitable in the Senate.
4. Run again for president from outside Washington a la Carter, Reagan, Clinton, W.
A long streak will be broken this November when a sitting a U.S. Senator will be elected president. The last one was JFK. Before that, Harding.
There are generally 100 U.S. Senators who see themselves as presidential material. History has not been kind to their ambitions.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:35 pm:
Word, Blago runs again unless he is indicted. He is not really qualified for any other job, and no private buisness would touch him with all the federal probes. He has nothing to lose, and I would bet in his mind he thinks the people love him and will re-elect him.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:42 pm:
Ghost, like Yellow Dog said, let’s see his financial reports. I suspect in a year he won’t be able to raise a dime, one way or the other. Smile and a shoeshine won’t cut it.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:50 pm:
Odds of running: 50%
Odds of winning: 5%
there will never be two Daleys in charge of both the Governor’s mansion and Chicago’s City Hall
Republicans, independants and downstaters would unite and make sure it didn’t happen…
As an aside, Bill Daley looks too much like a corporate insider to be a politician…
Maybe he’s having a midlife crisis and wants to be “beloved” like Richie…
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 2:57 pm:
===Republicans, independants and downstaters would unite and make sure it didn’t happen===
Unite behind whom? See, that’s the real point. Blagojevich didn’t even get 50 percent plus one last time, but he still won.
- Vote Quimby! - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:02 pm:
Draft Peter Fitzgerald! He knows more (and will soon know much more) about the governor’s office than anyone else!
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:07 pm:
Seriously, has anyone talked to Peter Fitzgerald?
His biggest enemies are out of office, in jail or under a cloud. He can take credit for the Big Heat. John Kass will flog for him on Page 2 of the Trib every day. And he’s won statewide before.
With all that, he might be able to persuade his old man to take the capital gains hit and sell some of that Bank of Montreal stock to prime the pump.
Why not?
- chiatty - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:11 pm:
Slim left town.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:13 pm:
Chiatty, I know, but he might be sick of all those Little League games by now.
- BandCamp - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:13 pm:
Word, I’ll drink that Kool-Aid. I am just so jaded with Illinois politics, specifically, and national in general. I just don’t see ANYONE who can come into office with 100% credibility and actually (gasp!) get things done.
I don’t know what it was like in the 70’s for my parents during the recession, but I will tell you right now, the rich get richer, the majority of the population has to pay more for everything while their wages do not keep up costs. And I don’t see one person who can or will back up their talk and bring things to the center again.
It’s rough right now, and Obama, Daley, or anyone else doesn’t seem like the answer in Illinois. Especially the guy who’s running the State right now.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:20 pm:
I hear you BandCamp, but take a quick look around the globe. Compared to what most of the rest of the world deals with, nothing going on here is so bad and scary that it can’t be fixed, endured, ignored or laughed at.
Actually, it pretty good and we get it through accident of birth. Cheer up, kid.
- He Gone - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 3:28 pm:
The reason I think Obama might run for Gov, and maybe even mayor of Chicago if he loses in November, is beacause he can win the Gov and possibly both. And he may opt for mayor if he never wants to go through a Presidential campaign again.
- Stacker of Wheat - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 4:10 pm:
why would he be interested in a job that has a prison sentence as a part of its pension.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 4:27 pm:
Anybody else think that Daley’s trial baloon is more about freezing the field than anything else? As long as he might run, it makes it very difficult for anyone else to line up early money and support.
I think that’s the play here, and it will work. This keeps everyone in place until after November, at which time we’ll see where we all stand.
Given that assessment, I’d say his chance of running is 10%, but if he does run (doubtful), he’ll be the next governor.
- Truthful James - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 5:29 pm:
You heard it here first and I have neither pipeline or straw, but I think that R. Daley has worn himself plumb out. The job has made him old before his time. I don’t think he wants to run for Mayor again. I like him to take a cabinet in the Obama regime.
Then if the Olympic dream is still alive — I think it is moe likely Rio because South America needs a turn and the TV will be real time in America — then the question is from where can the venue be best managed politically. State money will be required to build out here, especially the transportation infrastructure.
Bill is the brightest of the Daley chillun’ He knows DC from the Clinton years. With Richie as Secretary of Commerce and Bill as either Mayor or Governor, things look hunkie dory
Just wildly guessing.
- corvax - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 5:34 pm:
Chances of running? 20% sounds right. Chances of winning? Miniscule, especially if any 3 of Rod/Hynes/Alexi/Vallas/Quinn/Lang/Jackson/Daley/Obama/anyone else male run, Lisa does an Alvarez with name recognition
- Chuckie - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 7:17 pm:
Didn’t Mell force Bill Daley out of the race by playing hard ball and rumors?
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 7:28 pm:
wordslinger’s right about the pow-wow. The Ds are just way too strategic and organized to have their strongest run against each other, unless they’re really stumped because of the current climate (but I think they’d still battle it out behind closed doors and RD would obviously have a big say in that). If Daley makes the cut, I’ll bet he’d run.
If, however, Daley and Lisa run (still can’t see that, and forget Hynes with either of those two in the picture), it’s going to be alot tougher for Daley. She’s managed to build a good rep for herself and the perception is that she’s removed enough from Dad’s coattails to avoid the “too much power” issue everyone seems to be concerned about. And, alot of Rs even like her. (Andy’s going to take my ILGOP card away for just saying that even though I didn’t opine as to whether I’d vote for her.)
If Lisa doesn’t run, Daley’s good THOUGH VanillaMan is right about SBC being a major liability. Everyone DOES hate them, and being a Big Biz guy as a D right now is even worse than being an R Big Biz guy because alot mid-class Rs are even becoming disillusioned with Big Biz and their Captains.
However, as I said in yesterday’s posts, if the conditions are right (and I think they might be), the Daley boys will work the “power” thing to their advantage. With the money and support they’ll have, they’ll convince the public easily that Daley’s the tough, smart, and absolutely connected guy to give Illinois a fighting chance during tough times–regardless of whether Richie stays or decides to go. “He’ll do for the State what Richie’s done for the City” and many are scared right now; they might buy into that.
So…I’ll bet $5 he’ll run and if he does, he’ll make it. No way an R, any R, is going to take this one so the Ds will definitely call it before it even begins–unless, of course, there’s some MAJOR bad “blow them up” type thing that happens again which will change the whole direction. (Andy’s now taking my kids off the ILGOP list, too.)
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 7:59 pm:
Hey, Chuckie. You heard it here first, and I’m pretty good at making the Jane Q Public calls, even when it comes down to percent signs.
During the election we’re talking about, NO ONE is going to want any Peyton Place diversions. Voters are going to be EXTREMELY serious about who’s running State and ANYONE who tries ripping someone
apart because of an “alleged” scandal is going to get exported.
- Punley Dieter Finn - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 8:10 pm:
Rich, Frank Morgan is floating this trial balloon far from Oz. Now click your heels three times and wake from this dream. Oh Auntie MM there’s no place like Springfield…
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 8:13 pm:
Oh, boy. The fun begins!
- Bookworm - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 9:34 pm:
I doubt very much he could win any county south of I-80 because the name Daley has been synonymous with the Big Bad Chicago Machine for generations. However, downstate no longer has the numbers to decide a statewide election so it will hinge on how well he goes over in the suburbs.
Whatever allegedly scandalous stuff kept him out of the race in ‘02 probably pales in comparison to all the stuff that came out at the Rezko trial, so I don’t think that will be a factor.
- annon - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 9:40 pm:
No & def. no
- There he goes again - Wednesday, Jun 25, 08 @ 11:09 pm:
Dan Hynes is the next governor.
- John Presta - Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:59 am:
Politics is timing and Bill Daley’s timing is way off. 2002 was the optimum moment for Bill Daley and he took a pass. Colin Powell passed up running for President in 1996 (although he would have had an uphill battle defeating Clinton), nevertheless, that was him time. Obama grabbed his moments, first in 2004 and now in 2008. Bill Daley, your time has passed. Not with standouts like Lisa Madigan, Alexi Giannoulias, Dan Hynes and even Paul Vallas.
- Boone Logan Square - Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 9:19 am:
Odds: If the donors line up behind him (and I believe that Democratic donors would see him as a viable candidate, enough so that he would have a funding advantage over, say, Lisa Madigan) to the extent that Blagojevich is forced to quickly announce that he will not seek re-election, then I think Bill Daley has a better than 60% chance of running.
He would probably beat Blagojevich handily in a Democratic primary, but I don’t think he intends to fight a war with Blagojevich so much as force him out. If he can get the governor to bail (and if he positions himself as a competent, serious Democrat with the interests of the state in mind, donors and pols ought to flock to him quickly), he should wrap up the nomination.
As for the general election, the Republican Party has to field a candidate with statewide appeal and enough money to compete. In other words, it needs to get a statewide candidate better than anyone they have gotten to run for statewide office this century. Who is that person? The national climate could change between now and 2010 making Republicans more attractive, but it would have to be a dramatic change to reverse Democratic gains in the collar counties. Given the loss of House seats held by Crane and Hastert the past four years, that is a tall order.
Plus there’s the money issue. Daley will only run if he has the money to blow Blagojevich out of the primary. That would be more than enough money to end the general campaign, no matter how much downstaters might rail against Richard Daley’s brother taking over the state. That negative pales in comparison to Blagojevich’s negatives in 2006, yet he was able to remove any drama from that race by spending JBT into oblivion.
I see little stopping Bill Daley if he truly wants to be governor. Time will tell if that is his goal.
- emmejo - Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 7:25 pm:
There he goes again–11:59 p.m. Interesting that I recently had a big family outing with relatives over from throughout the suburbs, and most of them never even heard of Dan Hynes. DH is a nice guy but doesn’t stand a chance. And….I’m sorry but he has the charisma of an ice cream cone.