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Speech videos and a poll

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is the closest thing to being right that I’ve seen on this topic in the legacy media to date…

Even before Sen. Barack Obama won the requisite delegates to become the Democratic presidential nominee and long before a difficult general election contest, Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s office has been discussing a potential successor to the Illinois junior senator if he wins the White House, sources close to Blagojevich said Tuesday.

Though no names have formally surfaced from Blagojevich, sources said a key proviso would be to appoint a successor who would gain Obama’s approval.

Obama will have a huge influence on the choice of his successor if he is elected president. One doesn’t want to upset the president, particularly if one is under federal investigation.

Now, on to the speeches…

* McCain


* Clinton


* Obama


* Poll…

* Related…

* Obama has Illinois, but what to do with it?

* Obama’s to-do list: Woo women, lead U.S. on race, avoid dirt

* Obama claims nomination

* Hundreds call for Pfleger’s reinstatement

* St. Sabina protests Pfleger’s fate: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and his advisers said although they were troubled by Pfleger’s remarks, they were saddened by his removal. Obama “just heard that news and obviously events of the last week have been disturbing,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s senior adviser. “I feel sad for him and for the church community. He’s done good work in those neighborhoods. All you have to do is look around to see it.”

* Meet the FOBO’S. Obama takes Chicago pals–and top fund-raisers–on campaign plane Tuesday

* Rahm Chooses: Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel — former Clinton aide and close Obama friend — comes out from under his desk (metaphorically) and endorses Obama.

* Giannoulias On Obama

* Chicagoans React to Obama’s Victory

  48 Comments      


Rezko jury watch… Gone for the day

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 1:06 pm - In case you’re wondering

Jurors took a lunch at about noon, according to court watchers sitting outside the courtroom.

* 2:24 pm - The Sun-Times has posted the official verdict form, which could be useful when the jury finally finishes. Click here to download.

* 3:30 pm - If you’d like to match up the verdict form with an explanation of what each of those counts are about, the Tribune’s Rezko blog laid it out a while back. But, since the Tribsters don’t have direct links to each post, I’ve put them all on a separate page.

* 4:19 pm - Parsing

The note from jurors yesterday said they couldn’t decide on one count.

Does that mean the Tony Rezko jury cannot decide on JUST one count?
Or does that mean the jury cannot decide on ANY one count?

It’ll happen when it happens. They could stay deadlocked over one count for days. One should never read too much into anything.

* 4:37 pm -The jury has left for the day.

  73 Comments      


Halvorson claims big lead *** UPDATED x1 ***

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Debbie Halvorson has a new poll that she claims shows her with an 11 point lead over Republican Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District

According to results of the poll of 500 likely voters, when asked how they would vote today, she was winning 43 percent to 32 percent for Ozinga with [Green Party candidate[ Wallace winning 6 percent. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

Undecided voters, who made up the remaining 18 percent, said they generally favored a Democrat over a Republican by 33 percent to 19 percent. A summary of the poll by Halvorson’s firm, Anzalone Liszt Research, said when respondents heard “basic information” about her and Ozinga, her support increased to a 50-39 percent advantage. […]

The poll contended respondents broke Democratic 41 percent to 35 percent Republican in party self-identification, though Sere said that contradicts voting patterns in the district. George W. Bush won the district by 53-46 percent over Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004 and Weller won by 55-45 percent in 2006 over Democratic candidate John Pavich.

Still, the poll found Bush unpopular, with just 36 percent giving him a favorable rating. Congressional Republicans got a 40 percent unfavorable rating compared to 49 percent favorable for congressional Democrats.

It also found the economy was the top concern of an outright majority, 52 percent of respondents. Among voters who said the economy was their top or second most important issue, Halvorson led by 52 percent to 21 percent for Ozinga.

* Ozinga’s campaign criticized Halvorson for not releasing more numbers, including favorable ratings, and added…

“It’s early in the race. When voters learn Debbie Halvorson has used her position in the state Senate to do little more than be a rubber stamp for (Democratic Gov.) Rod Blagojevich, they will run from her faster than she is running from her own record,” he said.

*** UPDATE *** An e-mail from the Ozinga campaign…

Shouldn’t Senate Majority Leader Halvorson be leading by more than 11 points against someone who was a private citizen two months ago?

She’s been in this race for several months - Marty’s been in it for several weeks.

She’s been an elected official in this district for 15 years.

She’s arguably the most powerful woman in Illinois.

She’s the quasi-incumbent in this race.

So the fact that she’s well under 50 percent with all of those initial advantages - and before our campaign has spent one dime on paid media - makes me question why she released these numbers as if they were good news.

  59 Comments      


Quote of the week

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m still listening to it, but Gov. Blagojevich was on the Don & Roma show this morning and was trying to explain what he claims is a $2 billion budget deficit “that the House Democrats really are responsible for. They passed that.”

But then the guv went into kindergarten mode…

“$2 billion, Don and Roma, is two hundred million times ten.”

I kid you not.

  74 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

When was the last time you bought a “hard copy” newspaper?

  109 Comments      


Another world *** UPDATED x1 ***

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As Michael Dobbs wrote about Sen. Hillary Clinton the other day…

She seems to assume that if she says something loudly enough, and repeats it often enough, it will become true.

* It finally hit me a while back that one reason I’ve been so circumspect about Sen. Clinton is that we’ve elected the same sort of person as governor right here in Illinois

Gov. Rod Blagojevich says he is “filled with enthusiasm” about a reform measure sitting on his desk that would prevent state officials from taking campaign cash from most state contractors.

He’s filled with something, allright, but it ain’t enthusiasm.

* The governor even criticized the General Assembly for dithering on passing the bill…

“My only question is, what took them so long?”

Let that sink in for a minute.

The gall.

The ultimate freaking gall.

But you can bet he’ll keep repeating those lines over and over again, hoping somebody will finally believe him.

* Since Blagojevich’s fundraising has been tanking of late, he had to make sure the Senate put off passing the contractor contribution ban as long as possible. It wasn’t until Sen. Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign gave them no choice that they finally had to act this spring.

But, with a perfectly straight face he criticizes the General Assembly for stalling the bill and says he’s eager to improve it. Breathtaking.

* The governor continued

It’s a step forward,” Blagojevich told reporters in Chicago Monday, when asked about the bill, which would prohibit campaign contributions from state contractors to the elected officials who hold their contracts. “I think we have an opportunity with that vehicle in my hands to really do sweeping things,” by adding new provisions to the bill.

* Those state contractors are his last real base of financial support

Earlier this year, a Daily Herald investigation revealed that 73 percent of cash recently raised by Blagojevich came from those doing business with the state, lobbying the state or facing state regulation.

Blagojevich’s desperate need of campaign cash from those state contractors to pay his ever-mounting legal bills is the real reason behind his plan to slap the ethics bill with an amendatory veto.

* Thankfully, much like Sen. Clinton’s many strange concoctions, nobody with an honest bone in their body is buying into these gubernatorial fairy tales

“He’s trying to stall and delay and keep this from becoming law,” said reform lobbyist David Morrison… “His motives are transparent here.”

* Why does he want to stall? Well, he has a fundraiser coming up in a couple of weeks. Perhaps he can even stall the bill indefinitely. That way the contractor money will keep rolling in so he can continue paying his criminal defense lawyers, at about 20 large a week. As the Tribune wrote of his excuses

It’s transparently bogus.

Yep.

* But what great reform push by our unreform governor would be complete without an attack on the ethics bill’s House sponsor? Blagojevich took a whack at Rep. John Fritchey for doing some zoning work for a pawn shop. That legal work was translated into this Bosnian sniper fire event

“[Fritchey] is currently a paid lobbyist for the payday loan industry.”

Yeah, OK. The last person to make that goofy charge was former Sen. Carol Ronen. Shortly afterwards, Ronen retired from state government with a $38,000 annual bump in her pension, courtesy of a two-month stint on the governor’s staff. How’s that for right back atcha, pal?

If you want a point by point refutation, head to Illinoize, where Fritchey cuts the guv a new one.

*** UPDATE *** Clintonian ’til the end. From the AP

Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation’s first female president. […]

The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City.

From Clinton’s campaign…

The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening.

Except the AP didn’t report that she would concede the race.

  45 Comments      


Constitution, schmonstitution? *** UPDATED x1 ***

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As you’re probably aware by now, there’s a big argument over whether the appropriations bills passed by the House and Senate violate the state’s Constitution

The Illinois Constitution prohibits lawmakers from appropriating more spending for a fiscal year than they expect the state to gain in revenue during that year. Madigan said it’s up to Blagojevich, using his veto power, to cut spending if he has a problem with it.

Dawn Clark Netsch, a Northwestern University law professor, said it’s the Legislature’s responsibility to do its “absolute double-best” to approve a budget that’s actually balanced, just as the governor must begin the spring session by introducing a balanced plan for that budget.

“It’s an important moral imperative,” said Netsch, who was vice chair of the committee which drafted the “balanced budget” mandate at the 1970 convention.

* The governor, who claims he got a “C” in consitutional law, agrees

The governor said the state constitution is “pretty clear and unambiguous” that both chambers must pass a balanced budget.

* The Constitution requires the governor to submit a balanced budget, and it has this language

The General Assembly by law shall make appropriations for all expenditures of public funds by the State. Appropriations for a fiscal year shall not exceed funds estimated by the General Assembly to be available during that year.

Seems pretty clear to me.

* But what about the history?

“Certainly there have been many budgets that governors have viewed as exceeding their projected revenue,” said Laurence Msall, president of The Civic Federation, a nonpartisan government research organization based in Chicago. “But I don’t recall the General Assembly majority leadership indicating that as they were passing the budget to the governor.”

* And

Charles Wheeler, director of the Public Affairs Reporting Program at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said he couldn’t recall another instance in which lawmakers deliberately and publicly approved an unbalanced budget, as they did on Saturday.

* But

[House Democratic budgeteer Rep. Gary Hannig] disputed the idea that what was done this year is breaking new ground. Instead, he said, it was a return to his early days in the General Assembly, starting in 1979, when he said it was more usual for the legislature to takethe lead in crafting the budget, knowing that the governor would use line-item veto power to get it in balance.

“If you go back and look at those days,” he said of the era of Gov. Jim Thompson, a Republican often working with a Democratic legislature, “you will see that veto sessions had a lot of budget items … and a lot of override efforts.”

Having a governor work out a detailed budget with legislative leaders became the model most used when the GOP had majorities in the House and Senate for two years starting in 1995, when Republican Jim Edgar was governor, Hannig said.

That’s before my time, and Speaker Madigan has said the same thing as Hannic. Still, Msall and Wheeler were both around during those days and Charlie was the press room’s resident budget expert. There may have been lots of override motions, but if things were that out of balance, you’d think those two guys would remember it. This requires more research. Perhaps the intern can get on it after the Rezko jury finishes its duties and we can unchain him from his laptop.

* Whatever the case, the political feud continues

Blagojevich accused lawmakers of violating the state constitution by passing an unbalanced budget. The state constitution requires that the state appropriations each year aren’t higher than anticipated revenue.

‘’This would be the first time the guy has ever been concerned about a balanced budget,'’ countered Madigan spokesman Steve Brown.

Oof.

* The Peoria Journal Star asks

Every time you think the dysfunction can’t get any worse in Springfield, it does. Isn’t there someone Illinoisans can sue?

* Nope

“But I don’t think you could ever go to court and get a court to say, ‘OK Legislature, you did not appropriate in accordance with the Constitution.’ And do what? Send them all to jail? Hold them in contempt?”

*** UPDATE *** Thanks to a commenter, here’s an excerpt from a 1990 story about Jim Thompson’s last year in office

The bottom line is that the lawmakers’ budget as sent to the governor was $150 million to $200 million out of balance. The governor’s Bureau of the Budget put the shortfall at $199 million through a simplified computation. After Thompson was done with the lawmakers’ plan, he had balanced the budget by “cutting” $179 million and by directing agencies to create a 2 percent reserve that would set aside $20 million that could only be spent with the governor’s written approval.

Thompson’s “cuts” amounted to a return to the payment deferrals that he had originally proposed. He lopped $115 million from Medicaid spending, $20 million from circuit breaker payments and $25 million from state employee’s group insurance. “These vetoes in essence return the billing cycle back to the budget levels,” budget director Robert L. Mandeville said. Other major vetoes included $5 million cut in general state aid for public schools and $3.9 million in “new” money for a pre-trial program in Cook County.

Rep. Hannig is apparently right.

  33 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning

* Proposed law targeting Drew Peterson may get another chance - Measure would allow judge to consider hearsay testimony if a witness’ disappearance is caused by illegal means

* Are you addicted to public access television?

“AT&T apparently believes game shows and sitcoms deserve good quality and speedy delivery but not for civic information and emergency alerts, which are being sidelined into an application that is not like the commercial channels,” said Barbara Popovic, of CAN-TV, who met with lawmakers Wednesday to share her concerns.

* Atty. Gen. Madigan says ComEd rubbed out clean-coal bill

— The office of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan accused Commonwealth Edison Co. of killing state legislation that would have eased the way for a new generation of coal-fired power plants designed to operate cleanly.

The bill, which would have required utilities to purchase up to 5% of their electricity from clean-coal plants like one proposed for Downstate Taylorville, fell short of the 60 votes needed to pass the House on Saturday.

* Rezko jury locked on one count

* Rezko verdict could be near

* No vacation? Blame a Democrat

* Time for another property tax hike?

Five months after getting hit with the largest property tax increase in Chicago history, homeowners and businesses are facing another $40 million increase — this one for the Chicago Public Schools.

* State health bill could bring in $51 million a year for Cook County

* NIU’s Cole Hall renovations in jeopardy

* Eyes high, head low in bid for Olympics

* BP has prospective buyers for former refinery site

* Bill over land near airport ready for Blagojevich’s desk

* Bill seeks to shift gears on teens’ weekend curfew for Safe Rides program

* Bill opening free transit rides to disabled people awaits governor’s OK

* Cullerton appeals removal from ballot

* IDOT mowing again, will resume carcass removal soon

* Poshard calls on Illinois leaders to reach agreement on construction bill

* Construction bill’s demise draws fire from all sides

* Guv bats budget ball back to lawmakers

* Gov optimistic about reaching budget deal

* Hannig: Budget can be managed

* Governor wants lawmakers to reconsider budget

* Legislature punts on budget

* Blagojevich says legislature must trim $60 billion budget plan

* Illinois budget battle may continue post session

* Demos happy with budget; Repubs differ

* Illinois Budget Imbroglio

* That’s no budget; it’s a poorly played political game

Who’s making threats now? We have always known that Madigan wields tremendous power in Springfield. We always thought he tempered that power with good sense and a commitment to public service. Now, he just sounds vindictive.

* Governor: State budget is unconstitutional

* Another Showdown Over State Budget On Horizon

* Unbalanced state budget may stem from trust issue

* Earmarks largely absent in state spending plan

  8 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Budget and capital plan reality check

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Bo Diddley

Tuesday, Jun 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* He wasn’t always an old man…



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