Not so much
Tuesday, Jul 8, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The common practice in American journalism is to report the highest number available. If death estimates at a natural disaster are 15-40, the headline is sure to read: “As many as 40 feared dead.”
The problem with this practice, however, is that after a while journalistic shorthand often kicks in and the biggest number becomes the only one used. This phenomenon partly explains why we only ever see the highest estimate of the Fiscal Year 2009 budget deficit.
Anyway, this AP story follows the pattern. Can you spot it?
In a state where the government plans to spend $59 billion this year, it’s not a lot of money. But taxpayers can expect to cough up at least $80,000 for this week’s special legislative session.
Lawmakers will return to Springfield Wednesday and Thursday at the beck of Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who says they sent him a fiscal blueprint in which expenditures exceed revenues by $2 billion.
Like anyone on business, Illinois’ 118 representatives and 59 senators are entitled to reimbursement for their expenses.
It’s $129 per day for lodging and meals, for a total of $45,400.
And for hopping in the car and crossing the flat prairie to the capital, each gets 50.5 cents per mile. They’ll drive 60,260 miles and get $30,400 in taxpayer reimbursements, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
The AP’s estimate assumes that all legislators will show up for the special session. Not gonna happen. Last year, several newspapers published daily cost estimates of the interminable overtime session which were based on perfect attendance. The number was far too high because attendance was never close to perfection.
* Now, on to the session itself. Finke has a pretty good roundup of opinion on why this week’s special session should be short…
THE COMING ELECTION: “The fact that there’s an election (Nov. 4) I think guarantees that they are going to do something and get out of town,” said Kent Redfield, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “The perception is that the mess of state government is the Democrats’ fault. It’s harder to make the case that more Democrats are better if there is a story day after day that there is no budget.” The issue cuts the same for Senate Democrats as House Democrats, Redfield said, giving Blagojevich no way to play one chamber against the other. […]
PAY RAISES: The House rejected 11 percent pay raises recommended by the Compensation Review Board, but the Senate hasn’t acted yet. Under the complicated rules of legislative pay raises, if the Senate meets in session four more days without rejecting the raises, they go into effect automatically. Senate President Emil Jones, D-Chicago, is believed to want the raise but not have it take effect until after the November election. […]
WEAKENED GOVERNOR/IMPEACHMENT: After Blagojevich called this week’s special session. Rep. Jack Franks, D-Woodstock, renewed his call for the House to investigate whether Blagojevich should be impeached. That call will grow louder if lawmakers are stuck in Springfield for another extended summer stay.
Redfield said the conviction of Blagojevich friend and fundraiser Antoin “Tony” Rezko and ongoing federal investigations into the administration leaves Blagojevich politically weaker than he was a year ago.
* And this is from Illinois Public Radio…
For the Governor, it’s a no win situation. If he signs the budget as passed, the state will have major money problems in coming months. Make the cuts, and he’s the bad guy once again. But the Governor sees another way out. He wants the House to pass plans that would bring in revenue from leasing the state’s lottery and shifting other money from dedicated accounts. But few expect the House will go along.
I doubt anybody thinks that the House will “go along,” even in the hermetically sealed governor’s bunker. If they do think that, then they’re more delusional than I imagined.
* Related…
* Special session by the numbers
* Per diem plans
- lifer - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 9:42 am:
What will be the quick way out? Another pension holiday? At some point some one has to govern not delay capital expenditures, tax increases, etc. etc. The state has gone from bad to worse in the last six years and something or someone has to give.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 9:45 am:
lifer, it will likely be up to the governor to cut as he sees fit.
- If It Walks Like a Duck... - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 9:55 am:
Is this a test? Answer: $75,800
- Mr. Ethics - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:10 am:
If the Gov. makes cuts he is the bad guy? Most don’t see it that way. If he can show he is really cutting pork, then he is a taxpayor friend.
This budget can’t be that lean.
- cover - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:26 am:
Mr. Ethics, this time the General Assembly didn’t offer the Governor the fat target of “member initiatives” (pork). It’s a significant change from last year, when the Governor could point at nearly $500M in pork and easily blame the GA for fiscal irresponsibility.
This time, the cuts will have to come from somewhere very painful. About 90% of the budget pays for health care, education, and human services [source: Governor’s FY09 budget book]. All of these are high-priority areas for Democrats generally, the first two especially so for Gov. Blagojevich. He will have to swallow hard before signing his name to the veto message that commits him to making the cuts he announced.
- lifer - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:35 am:
Rich I agree that the governor will make the cuts but that is a daily moving target depending on which special interest group he is talking to (i.e. FFA, etc.) All of this is so disappointing.
- Little Egypt - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:37 am:
Blagojevich is politically weaker than he was a year ago. Oh DUH! The voters know that. It’s nice to see some political analysts actually come out and admit it as well. In fact, I’d go so far as to call him a lame duck.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:41 am:
The per diem stories are an old chestnut that get people riled up at the barber shop and the diner counter (I’m a timeless, classic kind of guy — no stylists or baristas for me). Pretty easy and silly.
The governor’s abuse of the state plane, however, is arrogant and vulgar.
Two things I can’t figure out: Why some Illinois paper doesn’t do a daily tracking of Rod’s use of state aircraft, with miles, purposes, costs, and a snappy logo and tagline like “Rarified Rod”; and why Rod doesn’t score green and thrifty PR points by taking Amtrak, the EL or driving a hybrid SUV or something like that.
- Fan of the Game - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:44 am:
It should be noted that when cover claims that education is high-priority for the governor, it means P-12 education. Higher education has never been a priority for Gov. Blagojevich.
On topic, if the governor is the “bad guy” for ciutting the budget, he has only himself to blame. Every move has pushed him deeper into the corner, and the dogs that once might have been friendly to him have turned and hold him there.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 10:52 am:
Speaking of reportable numbers, have you noticed that the stories about the legislative pay raises never mention what they cost? I’m not trying to defend them as justified, but let’s be honest, if it was a sexy amount it would be in every headline, instead you never even see it in a story.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 11:10 am:
According to the late historian Barbara Tuchman in her masterpiece, “A Distant Mirror”, chronically the 14th Century, numbers didn’t start becoming an objective fact before this time. She explains in the chapter covering the Black Death that the figures used were meant to convey disaster and calamity, as a storytelling device, not as an exact figure.
Today in much of media, a similar approach is being taken. The intention is to make a story newsworthy, hence the usage of the highest figures available. This is another important reason to understand the sourcing of media stories. Many “news” organizations regularly use this approach and it is important for readers to recognize this literary approach to their numeric fugures.
Governments, politicians, polls, many media sources, often do not understand the fiscal events they are covering. Consequentially the numbers within each fiscal event often fails to be exact.
Blagojevich can make his cuts, but the figures that will be reported will not be understood by voters. All they will understand will be the words “cuts” and “less”. The Governor will take the fall for them.
- The Doc - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 11:31 am:
Mr. Ethics, the problem here is that Blagojevich will likely NOT take the responsible route and cut programs and expenditures that are deemed “pork”. Rather, he’ll unapologetically slash projects of his enemies, and retain projects for his buddies, and the merits of such projects be darned.
- the Other Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 11:45 am:
Quoting Finke:
Under the complicated rules of legislative pay raises, if the Senate meets in session four more days without rejecting the raises, they go into effect automatically. Senate President Emil Jones, D-Chicago, is believed to want the raise but not have it take effect until after the November election. […]
If it’s true that Jones does not want four more sessions days until November, Speaker Madigan can surely play a bad trick on the Senate and the Governor.
From the Ill. Constitution:
SECTION 15. ADJOURNMENT
(a) When the General Assembly is in session, neither
house without the consent of the other shall adjourn for more
than three days or to a place other than where the two houses
are sitting.
(b) If either house certifies that a disagreement exists
between the houses as to the time for adjourning a session,
the Governor may adjourn the General Assembly to a time not
later than the first day of the next annual session.
Imagine the Speaker refusing to adjourn the special session. The Senate must then return to Springfield for more session days, unless the Governor bails out Jones by adjourning the GA until after the November election — leaving Blago with the budget mess squarely in his lap.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 11:56 am:
TOA, you’re misreading the section…
=== If either house certifies that a disagreement exists
between the houses as to the time for adjourning a session,
the Governor may adjourn the General Assembly to a time not
later than the first day of the next annual session.===
The governor can adjourn the session himself if the two chambers disagree.
Also, there’s this…
===SECTION 5. SESSIONS… Special sessions of the General Assembly may also be convened by joint proclamation of the presiding officers of both houses, issued as provided by law.===
We’ve adjourned the regular session. The special sessions called by the guv can’t be extended unless both Madigan and Jones agree to more special sessions.
- ANON - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:04 pm:
And never mentioned is how much the Dems have increased the budget since they took total control.
At least $1 billion a year, I would guess.
- downstate hack - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:08 pm:
If he signs this budget, someone is bound to sue as it is easily proven that the budget is not balanced and unconstitutional. Let the courts throw it back to the Senate and House to fix.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:14 pm:
Hack, I doubt that courts would get involved. How could you “prove” the budget is out of balance until the end of the fiscal? Revenues and expenditures are moving targets. What would the petitioner request for relief?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:20 pm:
downstate hack, wordslinger is right. That’s iffy at best.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:23 pm:
Most stories seem to miss what I would call option 3. The Gov get Jones to pass the bare bones budget deal in the senate. The gov then signs that budget into law without making any cuts (so he can blame the GA for the effects) and then vetos the current budget as moot/unconstitutional. The problem is he needs Jones support and jones wants more money for k-12. So under option 3 he cuts a deal to run a supplemental aprop or spending bill just for education. They can even ties this bill to the fund sweeps making a compelling argument that the State has the money to educate our kids, we just need to authroize sweeping the money that should never have been seperated but for the lobbiesets impropper hold on the GA.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:25 pm:
===So under option 3 he cuts a deal to run a supplemental aprop or spending bill just for education.===
It takes three to make that deal.
- Captain America - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 12:36 pm:
I remember walking into the Daley lakefront/North side headquarters in the mid 90s and and innocently inquiring what’s HDO - everyone looked at me like an idiot! It waw before HDO had received any publicity.
- A question - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 2:02 pm:
Perhaps it would be instructive to recall the heavy cuts Edgar made when his budget was over, for comparisons.
- the Other Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 2:16 pm:
Rich,
I’m reading the section the same way you are. If the House and Senate disagree on adjournment, Blagojevich would have to step in to save Jones by adjourning. The budget mess would remain unsolved, leaving it squarely at the feet of the Governor, while also having to carry the water for adjourning to avoid the pay raise kicking in.
As for special sessions: the Governor can convene the special session, but the GA gets to adjourn it (except in the scenario above if the chambers disagree).
Maybe I’m wrong; and it’s certainly speculation that Madigan would go this far to tweak the Governor and Jones.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 2:44 pm:
Good point, I have no idea what Madigan does with an attempt to do a seperate approp for an education increase. Overall my option 3 puts the Gov into a much better fighting position; BUT only if he can get Jones on board. And the unknown on the education increase may be more then Jones is willing to support.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 2:45 pm:
Why would Jones agree if he’s already got the guv over a barrel?
- Ghost - Tuesday, Jul 8, 08 @ 3:49 pm:
Jones still needs the Gov to get the 400 mill increase for education. The Gov is looking to avoid the negative publicity of making the cuts himself, and Jones stil needs the Gov at the end of the Day to obtain approvial of the spending.
Now I realise the Gov needs Jones a lot more then vice versa, but I am not sure the Gov can swallow the heat for making the cuts himself and survive it. Then again his options put him into serious jeapardy with Jones, but so does calling these special sessions before Nov.
Madigan has the Gov caugh in a neat hat trick; The best out for the Gov is to try defuse the bomb by working out a sep deal with Jones on education and going with the bare bones. I agree that it may be impossible to get Jones on board for this; but I see it as the Govs best out.