* 10th District - Mark Kirk (R-Incumbent) vs. Dan Seals (D. Kirk 55% Seals 45% Seals had his shot last time out, still hasn’t moved into the district and frankly has run out of ideas.
* 13th District - Judy Biggert (R-Incumbent) vs. Scott Harper (D). Biggert 60% Harper 40%. This district is still solidly GOP.
* 18th District - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D). Schock 56% Callahan 44%. District is still GOP territory and Callahan….her comments about the draft show a lot of naivete (so did Schock’s comments on arming Taiwan)
I think the GOP will hold all three. Kirk and Biggert are perfect for their districts. Schock, whatever else you think about him, is a proven winner and Callahan hasn’t gotten any traction.
I’m starting to think that the Obama coattails are going to be shorter than previously thought. I get a sense the thrill is gone. Call it Obama Fatigue.
==Please remember to explain your reasoning. Thanks.==
As I had predicted a year ago, the Iraq War is no longer the deciding factor as it was in 2006. We are not seeing coattails from Obama. (I don’t expect coattails from anyone anymore anyway, but Obama’s once-ueberpopularity was worth a look-see.) Generic congressional polls no longer show a double-digit deficit for the GOP. After two years in control of Congress, enough voters have become disillusioned and cognisant over how Pelosi and Reid let opportunities waste away and nothing got done since they took control. At 9% approval rating, Congress has never looked worse.
Kirk has been proven out to be a good choice, while Seals couldn’t close the deal in 2006 - his year to have done so. He hasn’t given voters new reasons to doubt their earlier choice of Kirk, or given voters new reasons to vote for him.
Biggert is safe. They like the GOP there.
Same with Peoria. After Bob’s and Ray’s decades in office, the GOP brand sells there. Even for a lightweight like Schock, there are enough believers to select him.
I would agree with wordslinger. The GOP is holding these districts, Biggert is the only one that looks anywhere close to being in a competitive race. Schock is so popular & the newspapers love him. Kirk is in no trouble, Seals is an amateur that almost beat Kirk in the most democratic year since… oh 1932. This year, not a chance.
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:00 am:
Overall: National Republicans are broke, so there is no cavalry coming. DCCC is loaded.
10: Seals by 1% - Obama will win the district by 15% so Seals has a good cushion, plus right-wing groups must hate Kirk’s pro-gay, pro-abortion, pro-green liberal streak and won’t come to his aid
13: Biggert by 2% - Judy has never had a competitive race, and the DCCC just upgraded the race. Probably not enough to make it, but should be close
18: Schock by 4% - The less we hear about this race, the better for Schock
I am Kirk supporter and think he will squeak by 52-48, but last time he was up 25 in mid october without the dccc attacking him and with the same amount of money he has now and he BARELY won.
He now has to confront 1 million dollars of national advertising against him, Palin’s evangelical background which does NOT play well in the jewish community or among moderates, and the obama crazies riled up.
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:02 am:
one more thing about Seals/Kirk, true Seals lost in a high Democratic year, but there is a big difference between a Democratic congressional year and a Democratic Obama-powered presidential year.
==Seals lost in a high Democratic year, but there is a big difference between a Democratic congressional year and a Democratic Obama-powered presidential year==
I took that into consideration too. Thats why I have him only losing by 10%.
Finally - my predictions come with my disclosure that I utterly blew the 2006 races with my predictions. I failed to take into consideration a number of factors such as the natural swing against a party holding the White House during an off year. 2002 actually saw GOP gains, which shouldn’t have happened, so I over-corrected for 2006 when I shouldn’t have.
Obama’s current numbers in Illinois should not lead partisans to believe that coattails will appear.
Seals by one. The Dems are dumping huge resources into this race that they weren’t last time.
Biggert? Hmmm. DCCC is being a bit optimistic here. Let’s say seven percent for Biggert. Kirk’s an easy villain. Judy Biggert is not.
Schock. Not close. He’s far better known. As long as the financial crisis does not start to show up on the ground in that district, he’s safe. 15 percent.
As a general note, the calamity that is the Democratic leadership in Springfield does tend to diminish Obama’s coattails, especially for people who don’t get the opportunity to vote out their favorite legislative bogeyman this yea, and especially when Blago is going out of his way to give show trials to dissidents, excuse me, destroy good government programs in the districts of Republicans and rebel Democrats. The calamity that is Wall Street will help Obama; it won’t do much to harm Aaron Schlock, er, Schock..
10th District - Mark Kirk (R-Incumbent) vs. Dan Seals (D)
If you can’t win in 2006, you are not likely to win now. The only reason it wont’ be a blow out is Obama on the ballot. But enough will ignore all other races after O to let Kirk win.
* 13th District - Judy Biggert (R-Incumbent) vs. Scott Harper (D)
Lee Daniels’ last gift to IL will sadly, likely win. I’d like this guy to win, so a real R could take it back in 10
* 18th District - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D)
It’s not 2006 and Obama might play in Peoria, but he won’t help her there.
==Palin’s evangelical background which does NOT play well in the jewish community…==
Are you an evangelical? Or jewish? Or are you so prejudiced against either group that you would believe that they are lemmings too narrow minded to see beyond religion on issues?
When you see comments like this, what these folks are really saying is that they have no polling evidence to support a win, but are really, really hoping.
Orthodox jews tend to find common ground with evangelicals on Israel, not the entire jewish community.
Vanilla, the 10th is very very socially moderate-witness Kirk’s endorsement from pro-abortion groups-which is why Palin’s evangelical background which to many suggests socially conservative, could turn voters off-Kirk you would note didn’t release her favorables in his poll.
have you seen any polling since seals started advertising? let’s pretend you follow politics, so you know that polls taken after one candidate is on the air and the others aren’t *always* show a significant lead for the candidate advertising. so kirk’s recent poll only fits the norm. just as we’d expect.
the real question is, can kirk hang on when the playing field is level? last time, he kept telling people he had no real competition. now that he’s abandoned his aura of invincibility, you have to wonder how loyal his supporters will be. you have to be pretty loyal to back someone who’s not only completely ineffectual in congress, but carries the baggage kirk does…
Kirk is a great campaigner and he has obviously proven himself adept at raising truckloads of $$$. I also have to wonder what the DCCC’s commitment to this race will be in mid-to-late October if other tight races across the country look more appealing - or dire.
Biggert 55, Harper 45
How do you vote against someone that reminds people of a grandma? Seriously, though, she is well-liked enough and has been in office long enough to fend off a semi-serious challenge. Note I didn’t say semi-serious challenger. Mr. Harper losing by 10% is nothing against Mr. Harper.
Schock 60, Callahan 35, Schafer 5
Nothing against Ms. Callahan, but anyone who thinks she can sniff anywhere near what Schock will get is kidding himself or herself. Schock will hold this district as long as he wants. He raises money like gangbusters, is easily accessible and well-liked by people of the opposite party.
btw, to sorta answer the question, i’m not willing to pick percentages until i know who barack obama has cut ads for in these races. if barack cuts an ad for seals, i’d bet seals wins. if barack cuts an ad for harper, i’d favor harper. don’t know enough about callahan to speculate at this point…
How could a VP nominee lose a congressional incumbant’s re-election? If you believe this than you have weighted voter’s priorities too heavily towards the irrational. Voters are not panicking over Palin, except for those intending to vote for Seals anyway.
Judy by 8%.
I am genuinely concerned, she doesn’t run a campaign with dirt, never has, never will. She’s a moderate, but definately not a gun-grabber.
Harper is Rahm Emanuel’s hand-picked ex-patriot carpetbagger: the money will flow and the dirt will fly.
Kirk: by 1%,
but who cares? I hope he loses to send a message to the IL and National GOP about supporting a gun-grabber. Support and arms for Israel? LOL, he wants to disarm the Jews (and everyone else) that live here in the USA. He should come out of the closet and show everyone his blue streak.
Aaron Schock: by 35%
He continues to be a breath of fresh air in spite of his oral flubs on some issues.
Biggert/Harper is an actual race. DuPage had more Dem ballots voted than GOP in the primary. (A first…) Judy’s phone-based town hall meetings included some weak responses/answers for an encumbent, Scott now has money, and DuPage Dems are pumped with “We can actually do this…”
10th: Seals will win, 52%-48%. In 2004, Kirk got 63%, and, in ‘06, he got 53%. I live in that district, and I’ve received more mail from Seals’ campaign than from Kirk’s campaign, although Kirk has more money. Photogram, I agree that we shouldn’t care who wins, since Kirk’s latest rating from Gun Owners of America is 0%, and his latest rating from Planned Parenthood is 100%. An officer of Illinois Minutemen told me that Kirk went to Mexico, to help illegal aliens cross the border.
13th: Biggert will win, 54%-46%. She usually gets 55%-60%, and I haven’t heard much about Harper.
18th: Schock will win, 63%-37%. LaHood usually got 65%-70%. Schock is a state rep., but Callahan has no political experience.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:34 pm:
Kirk this time benefits both ways from endorsements he is receiving from environmental, pro-choice and education groups, and from the Palin factor which has excited the base which never has completely embraced him in the past.
Kirk has not let up this time and has raised more money and is pushing harder than last time.
Seals in the meantime is running the same identical campaign with the same identical issues and attacks, save for “the high price of gasoline” which was neutralized against him early over his purchasing votes for gasoline stunt. His message sounds shrill and tired, similar to that fan loaded with beer sitting at U.S. Cellular or Wrigley screaming “you suck” over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again!
Kirk 57% - Seals 43%.
Biggert should win comfortably as she is a good fit in her district, by 59% - 41% margin.
Aaron Schock I have seen in person twice speaking at events. Extremely good speaker with charisma who invokes “what a wonderful young man” reaction from many voters. Schock 55%, rest 45%.
Schock will take the 18th by a huge percentage, at least 60%. Local coffee shop jokes that he’s slowly programing us with submininal messages ‘we must vote, we must vote Schock’. The size and amount of campaign signs in every imaginal place I’m sure prompts the jokes. Gotta say the draft bit is going to hurt Callahan no matter how she tries and spin out of it now.
In the Biggert race, it depends on how many disenfranchised GOPers show up at the polls. Obama has the state, so some may feel it’s not worth voting. Under normal circumstances, Biggert would be a shoo-in. With Obamamania infecting the state, it might be much closer than everyone thinks.
Schock wins easy around 60% with Callahan at 35%-40% depending on how will Schafer does. Almost everyone I talked to on the other side of the race don’t seem to be to energized by Callahan. I even heard a few of them, particularly ones from Peoria, say that prefer Schafer over her.
I dont know enough about the other races to predict percentage finishes, I think that both Kirk and Biggert will win.
My money is on Seals for the 10th District as he is a former insider and a fresh new face; fingers crossed for Harper for the 13th District (no offense to Biggert, but it would be nice to see a Democrat leading this District); and (unfortuantely) I think boy wonder - Schock - will beat out the formidable Callahan in the 18th District.
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 1:58 pm:
- Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 2:36 pm:
10th, Kirk. 55-45. Would love for Seals to win, but he doesn’t seem to have the same sort of umph that he had in ‘06 and I get the feeling that people in the district just don’t care that much anymore.
13th, Biggert. 62-38. Even though she’s nuts, I have a lot of friends in that district who absolutely love her. Plus, Harper isn’t really the greatest candidate - he’s a little goofy and for a Dem to have a real chance in that district they’ll have to be moderate, serious, and command attention. Which Harper is not and does not.
18th, 50-50. I think Callahan may have a chance. She’s been working the outlying areas pretty hard and she has just enough of that folksy charm to sway people to her side. Schock seems a bit big for his britches, but I know he’s seen as the new rising star of IL Republicans. This one is going to be a lot closer than people think.
- there he goes again - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 2:50 pm:
I’ll sail against the wind on the 18th CD and predict a Callahan victory. My reasoning is that be election day, voters will tire of the new kid with blow-dried hair and prefer some substance during these very tough economic times that favor Democrats. The Obama tide will help carry her to a 51-49 victory.
10th–Seals 54%-46%. Despite the weak numbers posted by the Kirk campaign, I think people will make their minds up in the final weeks of the race, and that the majority of the undecideds will break for Seals.
13th–Biggert 55%-45%. Harper will make somewhat of a dent in her numbers, but not enough to win. This will be a two-cycle race for him.
18th–Schock 54%-46%. I don’t see Callahan doing much to win here.
George Bush and Judy Biggert got us into this mess.
Families around the country are struggling to find work. A bad economy is shrinking what a good paycheck can buy. Our economy is under attack from a Judy Biggert-style of government and George Bush-appointed courts. Our taxes increase, while corporations and their honchos pay almost nothing. Our rights are eroding. Good jobs are flying overseas.
Enough is enough.
Scott Harper will help put more of us back to work, put more buying power in our paycheck while taxing less of it, call off the liberties-attack-dogs in government, appoint rights-respecting judges, make corporations and their fat-cat-CEOs pay their fair share, keep our rights protected and bring good-paying jobs back to the United States.
Do you have concerns?
Scott Harper will not take away your guns or force anyone to have an abortion.
Scott Harper values religion and will respect your right to practice your faith.
There is hope.
Things can change. Your vote for Scott Harper will start us back in the right direction. A vote for Scott Harper will strengthen our economy, put more of us back to work and more money in our wallets.
Union Carpenters around the country are struggling to find work. A bad economy is shrinking what a good union paycheck can buy. Organized labor is under attack from a John McCain-style of government and George Bush-appointed courts. Our taxes increase, while corporations and their honchos pay almost nothing. Making life easier for contractors is more important than job site safety. Union rights are eroding. Good union jobs are flying overseas.
Enough is enough.
After twenty-six years in the legislature John McCain finally says he will change government. Why not in the past quarter-century, when he had plenty of opportunity? It is bull. John McCain will not change anything. He will continue with four more years of rewarding the wealthy and sticking it to the union worker.
Union carpenters need change we can believe in.
Barack Obama will help put more carpenters back to work, put more buying power in our paycheck while taxing less of it, call off the labor-attack-dogs in government, appoint labor-respecting judges, make corporations and their fat-cat-CEOs pay their fair share, keep our job sites safe, our rights protected and bring good-paying jobs back to the United States for our brothers and sisters in organized labor.
Do you have concerns?
Barack Obama will not take away your guns or force anyone to have an abortion.
As a Christian, Barack Obama values religion and will respect your right to practice your faith.
As a man of color, Barack Obama respects the dreams of working men and women, regardless of color, giving no one undue influence or special treatment, because of their race.
There is hope.
Things can change. Your vote for Barack Obama will start union carpenters back in the right direction. A vote for Barack Obama will strengthen our union, put more carpenters back to work and more money in our wallet.
Scott Harper, a complete unknown at the time outpolled Biggert and her anti-abortion challenger combined on Super Tuesday by 25,000 votes. DuPage took 133,000 Dem ballots to 109,000 Repub on Feb. 5th too. The district is changing. Biggert’s base of retirees is dying off or moving to FL, AZ. There’s been an influx of people moving from other parts of the country and overseas like Eastern Europeans and South Asians. Biggert’s nasty immigration bashing doesn’t play well with them.
Biggert started out with a huge money advantage but Harper has out raised her this year and her fundraising is way off from past years. Probably because the big banks she fought to deregulate on the Finance Committee are in big, big trouble.
She’s obviously worried. She opened a campaign office in Downers recently and is mounting a ground game for the first time ever. Too late for that.
Voters out here know she’s climbed on board the “drill baby drill” train yet she’s taken $88,000 from oil companies. She plays a photo op game at Argonne and businesses in the district who are adopting or developing green technologies. And while she sometimes votes for alternative energy R&D funding when it comes to changing the tax code to take away the fossil fuel companies’ subsidies and tax breaks to level the playing field so alternatives can compete in the market she’s right there with Bush holding back commercialization of the 21st century energy solutions we need. Her daughter is a pharmaceutical company lobbyist and she’s gotten $230,000 from them while voting against healthcare for our kids and veterans.
She’s been in lockstep with Bush on the fiasco in Iraq.
As for Harper he’s come out of nowhere to move up to the DCCC Emerging Races list (2nd tier), one of 5 candidates in the nation and the only one in IL recently. He’s just been endorsed by DAPAC, a big progressive organization. He’s one of only 14 challengers nationwide to out raise an incumbent this year. He raised more cash than all 4 of Biggert’s previous Dem challengers did combined for their whole races by the end of the second quarter.
He put together a volunteer organization that was able to send Bill Foster 100 activists for GOTV on election day March 8th and over 40 to Lafayette IN the Saturday before their primary. In the middle of July his canvassers knocked on 3200 doors for one big Saturday event.
When the DCCC announced a surprise “100 Days to Victory” contest the Monday afterward while his field manager was sitting on a beach in MD enjoying a much needed long weekend off and the computers were down for two days loading the new VAN his staff managed to pull together over 750 volunteers through out the district and across the country to canvass, phonebank, write letters and deliver yard signs. In four days.
Harper has an MBA in Finance from U of Chi. Last year he was working on his doctorate in Social Ethics at Oxford when several of us convinced him the most ethical thing he could do would be to set it aside to run for congress. He’s also been a successful businessman. He and a partner built a business in the city from the two of them up to over forty employees before he sold his share.
He’s a sharp guy with a breadth of experience and a lot of great ideas to get this country back on track. Needless to say he’s got a lot of people here in the burbs excited about him and his campaign. He’ll win surprisingly handily.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 4:30 pm:
Not a lot of knowledge on the 3 races; they are in traditional R areas (the 10th traditional liberal R, similar to R areas in New England). I think they all go R by 2-15% even in Obama’s year. I think Jason Wallace has the potential to break 2 or 3% in the 11th and help decide a close race (Ozinga is the likely benefactor but Deb still has an OK shot to win), Greens a non-factor elsewhere.
Demographics are changing everywhere to the chagrin of the GOP, even in our historically republican 13th district. Judy Biggert has never had to fight a serious campaign in this district (she represented another district previously, speaking of carpetbaggers), and has so far been outfundraised by Scott Harper. The race has attracted attention from the DCCC, making the emerging races list, and will attract more funding from a broader base. I predict a tight contest, with Harper edging out the incumbent by a few points. Hinsdale will never go blue, but the majority of our district is solidly middle class, and is not as secure for the cons as once was thought.
photogram - ever been on one of her teletownhall conference calls? She usually holds these things at 10:30 in the morning so her respondees are 99% white retirees. Invariably the talk shifts to all “the other” people moving into the area. Judy is all too happy to tut tut right along with them as they accuse all “these people” of crowding their big families into small houses, sucking up welfare and services they think they’re paying for. Maybe Biggert is just too polite to tell them they’re racist. Nah who am I kidding. It’s what the Republican party lives on.
Seals will pull it ut by a very small margin (less tha 1%). The national Dems are putting alot of money into this one and Obama will help with a larger Dem turnout. Schock will win his race 54-46. He is popular and seems to fit well with the district. Callahan just hasnt seemed to get much traction in the race and Schock gets alot of good press. Biggert should win too. I peg this one at 51-48 with 1% for Alesch. The Dems have targeted this race but she remains fairly popular and I dont think enough Repubs will change and vote for a Dem in this district.
BTW here’s another thing Scott Harper is for. He wants to lower the corporate tax rate and offset it by doing away with the hundreds of special tax breaks that major corporations have hired their tax attorneys and lobbyists to bribe the likes of Biggert to embed into the tax code like barnacles on the bottom of a ship. That’ll level the playing field for small businesses and start ups, and make the fat cats actually compete. It’s time we purge the tax code of loopholes and breaks that make it easier to ship jobs overseas and harder to start a business that can compete with Biggert’s big business favorites.
As far as I know Alesch the green in the 13th isn’t even running a race. He’s reported no fundraising at all. The only sign I’ve seen of the green party in the district all year was one guy wearing a t-shirt at a parade in Tinley Park last weekend. If he gets 1% I’ll be amazed.
Seriously, has anyone even watched Harper’s interview with Jeff Berkowitz. The guy can’t even answer half the questions. He hasn’t even lived in the district for over two decades. Can’t the Democrats do better than recruiting a clueless ex-patriot carpetbagger that fancies himself a European Liberal? No one has even heard of the guy. It’s nice that he has wasted all of that money with nothing to show for it. His name id probably doubled just from the posts here.
Thanks Gene, for copying and pasting talking points. The first half sounds like and SEIU mailer and the second one of those Barack mass mailings to flood calls anywhere that runs anything remotely bad about Obama. If I wanted to read complete trash, I would be over on the KOS. Thanks again.
Markg, get your story straight. Alesch has been working hard. He has a active campaign, website, and is attending every event he can. Just because he doesn’t take big union money and other special interest money like Harper doesn’t mean he isn’t doing anything.
This one’s easy. All 3 Rs will win for reasons previously stated, so I won’t repeat them. Numbers for Kirk and Aaron won’t be a high as some have predicted.
Biggert 48.5%, Harper 51.5%. Judy is linked too much to the president. Most people are voting against 4 more years of Republicans.
I actually live in the 13th and more than half on the people I talk to, around 52%, are for change like in the 14th.
25,000 more people voted for Scott than Judy in the Primary. That is right around 3%. Those 25,000 know they are in a Republican District and are doing something to change it to a Democratic district.
Judy may be a nice person, but she is too close to Bush and as the Country gets into more messes like the financials and losing your nest egg along with your House, she will be dragged down with him.
GreenFan I think the Green party did have a booth at the county fair but I haven’t seen Alesch or his campaign anywhere. I saw more of him last year than this year.
Anonymous I suggest you attend one of Harper’s house parties where he answers questions from voters face to face. While he’s never been a professional politician and doesn’t talk in sound bite platitudes like Biggert he’s incredibly knowledgeable.
He grew up in Naperville and graduated from both Naperville North and Wheaton College. He got an MBA in finance at U of Chi. Then like so many others he moved to Chicago to start and build a business and made a lot of money. He took classes at UIC to qualify for the doctorate he wanted and spent two years in England (and last I checked they’re a pretty close ally, they even speak English which I’m sure will be reassuring to Biggert’s shrinking fan base) where he went to Oxford University, one of the most prestigious learning institutions in the world.
Trying to mock him as some kind of bizarro foreigner like you guys did Tammy Duckworth is not only ridiculous, it’s self defeating. In case you haven’t noticed there’s hundreds of thousands of voters in the district who don’t come from DuPage at all, including Judy Biggert and her chief of staff who, horrors or horrors is a native Chicagoan.
Long-time Lurker - a lot of those disenfranchised Republicans (and independents who make up about a third of electorate) are gonna show up at the polls and vote Democratic. Obama, Lisa Madigan, and Jesse White among others have all gotten over 60% of the vote in DuPage alone.
That’s a big reason why DuPage Republicans who tried to peddle their ridiculous “recall all the state constitutional officers” petition all year long failed to get even 7,000 of the 21,000 required signatures to put it on the ballot in the county. That of course didn’t stop them. The Republican dominated DuPage County Election Commission was going to illegally put the referendum on the ballot anyway until the DuPage Democratic Party cried foul.
That petition drive shows just how weak the Republicans are in DuPage these days. As much as everybody hates Blago out here they couldn’t even get 7,000 to sign it in a county with hundreds of thousands of registered voters.
Like Obama says Americans aren’t stupid and that goes double for DuPage.
10th With Seals winner in a very close race. Kirk has too many ties to Bush — if the economy is the issue the Democrats will do well.
Harper 52% — Biggert 48%
Scott has a lot of fresh ideas to replace the old GOP line of spend and borrow. The Joliet Herald News even said 4 years ago that Gloria Anderson would have run better in the 13th if she had given more attention to Joliet. Scott is well informed on the issues and will yield to the insurance companies and CEOs like Judy has done.
“I think Jason Wallace has the potential to break 2 or 3% in the 11th and help decide a close race (Ozinga is the likely benefactor but Deb still has an OK shot to win), Greens a non-factor elsewhere.”
He’s already polling better than that; and you would be wrong to assume that only Democrats vote for Greens–in just about every case, Greens take equally from Democrats and Republicans, with MOST votes coming from NEW and INDEPENDENT voters.
Squideshi I’d say you’re right at least in the governors race in 2006. A lot of Repubs didn’t like Topinka. One even told me she sounded like a southside barfly. But unless you have two really awful major party candidates I wouldn’t look for any Green to get 1%. This election is too important and the difference between Dems and Repubs is too stark for most voters to ignore and throw their vote away on a protest vote.
Re IL-13, Biggert v. Harper. Harper has come from nowhere in January to mount the only credible campaign I have seen since Biggert inherited the seat ten years ago. As markg8 has said, Harper outraised Biggert last quarter, despite his not taking any PAC money. As for answering questions, I have attended several of his houseparties. He does answer questions, thoughtfully, unlike many politicians I know. I don’t know about you, but I want someone representing me who thinks and analyzes but makes a decision in a reasonable amount of time, not one who jumps at the first sound bite. If the election were held today, Harper would probably not win, but if the yard signs I see are an indication, the momentum is in his direction. In 5 weeks, he has a great chance.
The makeup of the district is changing. Besides the immigrants cited, we are also seeing new people from both Cook County and from other blue states. The new arrivals I see think, “Bush-Biggert-Republican-Yuck!”
For the first time I can remember in the 2008 primary, the Democrats fielded a full slate of candidates in my precinct. Also, a local insurgent group, Operation Turn DuPage Blue (OTDB), unseated the incumbent officers of the DuPage County Democratic Party and elected people with real fire in their bellies. The OTDB people work like dogs. They have filled the ranks of precinct committeemen and built a ground game to support the money and volunteers Harper’s campaign has built. Look for them to bust a gut to turn out Democrats on Nov 4, unlike what I have ever seen in this county.
And as far as voting for someone who looks like a grandma, the figures don’t lie. Most people here are smart enough to see that when Biggert talks, Tom Delay’s lips move. Her voting record does not help here when 75+% of people think the country is moving in the wrong direction. People I talk to are annoyed when her voter questionnaires ask which Republican alternative you support, not for a real spectrum of opinions.
And as for Alesch, he drives a big pickup. How green is that? I passed him one day … on my bicycle. I have not seen him in any of the four parades I marched in or campaigning at my railroad station. At least Biggert turns up at the parades. I tell my friends, “A vote for Alesch is a vote for Biggert.”
By the way, the word is expatriate. I was one. Try it sometime. It broadens your horizons.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:22 am:
* 10th District - Mark Kirk (R-Incumbent) vs. Dan Seals (D) Incumbant wins by 10%
* 13th District - Judy Biggert (R-Incumbent) vs. Scott Harper (D) Incumbant wins by 15%
* 18th District - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D) Schock wins by 15%
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:23 am:
Please remember to explain your reasoning. Thanks.
- Fire Ron Guenther - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:29 am:
* 10th District - Mark Kirk (R-Incumbent) vs. Dan Seals (D. Kirk 55% Seals 45% Seals had his shot last time out, still hasn’t moved into the district and frankly has run out of ideas.
* 13th District - Judy Biggert (R-Incumbent) vs. Scott Harper (D). Biggert 60% Harper 40%. This district is still solidly GOP.
* 18th District - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D). Schock 56% Callahan 44%. District is still GOP territory and Callahan….her comments about the draft show a lot of naivete (so did Schock’s comments on arming Taiwan)
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:30 am:
I think the GOP will hold all three. Kirk and Biggert are perfect for their districts. Schock, whatever else you think about him, is a proven winner and Callahan hasn’t gotten any traction.
I’m starting to think that the Obama coattails are going to be shorter than previously thought. I get a sense the thrill is gone. Call it Obama Fatigue.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:56 am:
==Please remember to explain your reasoning. Thanks.==
As I had predicted a year ago, the Iraq War is no longer the deciding factor as it was in 2006. We are not seeing coattails from Obama. (I don’t expect coattails from anyone anymore anyway, but Obama’s once-ueberpopularity was worth a look-see.) Generic congressional polls no longer show a double-digit deficit for the GOP. After two years in control of Congress, enough voters have become disillusioned and cognisant over how Pelosi and Reid let opportunities waste away and nothing got done since they took control. At 9% approval rating, Congress has never looked worse.
Kirk has been proven out to be a good choice, while Seals couldn’t close the deal in 2006 - his year to have done so. He hasn’t given voters new reasons to doubt their earlier choice of Kirk, or given voters new reasons to vote for him.
Biggert is safe. They like the GOP there.
Same with Peoria. After Bob’s and Ray’s decades in office, the GOP brand sells there. Even for a lightweight like Schock, there are enough believers to select him.
- Heartless Libertarian - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:59 am:
I would agree with wordslinger. The GOP is holding these districts, Biggert is the only one that looks anywhere close to being in a competitive race. Schock is so popular & the newspapers love him. Kirk is in no trouble, Seals is an amateur that almost beat Kirk in the most democratic year since… oh 1932. This year, not a chance.
Biggert-53%, Harper-45%, Alesch-2%
Schock-59%, Callahan-40%, others-1%
Kirk-56%, Seals-44%
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:00 am:
Overall: National Republicans are broke, so there is no cavalry coming. DCCC is loaded.
10: Seals by 1% - Obama will win the district by 15% so Seals has a good cushion, plus right-wing groups must hate Kirk’s pro-gay, pro-abortion, pro-green liberal streak and won’t come to his aid
13: Biggert by 2% - Judy has never had a competitive race, and the DCCC just upgraded the race. Probably not enough to make it, but should be close
18: Schock by 4% - The less we hear about this race, the better for Schock
- Shore - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:01 am:
Schock and Biggert will win.
I am Kirk supporter and think he will squeak by 52-48, but last time he was up 25 in mid october without the dccc attacking him and with the same amount of money he has now and he BARELY won.
He now has to confront 1 million dollars of national advertising against him, Palin’s evangelical background which does NOT play well in the jewish community or among moderates, and the obama crazies riled up.
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:02 am:
one more thing about Seals/Kirk, true Seals lost in a high Democratic year, but there is a big difference between a Democratic congressional year and a Democratic Obama-powered presidential year.
- Pat Collins - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:13 am:
Palin’s evangelical background which does NOT play well in the jewish community
Given how strongly Evangelicals back Israel, thats a bit odd, if true.
National Republicans are broke
Are you sure? The Standard thinks the NRC has 100 Million.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:13 am:
==Seals lost in a high Democratic year, but there is a big difference between a Democratic congressional year and a Democratic Obama-powered presidential year==
I took that into consideration too. Thats why I have him only losing by 10%.
Finally - my predictions come with my disclosure that I utterly blew the 2006 races with my predictions. I failed to take into consideration a number of factors such as the natural swing against a party holding the White House during an off year. 2002 actually saw GOP gains, which shouldn’t have happened, so I over-corrected for 2006 when I shouldn’t have.
Obama’s current numbers in Illinois should not lead partisans to believe that coattails will appear.
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:14 am:
Seals by one. The Dems are dumping huge resources into this race that they weren’t last time.
Biggert? Hmmm. DCCC is being a bit optimistic here. Let’s say seven percent for Biggert. Kirk’s an easy villain. Judy Biggert is not.
Schock. Not close. He’s far better known. As long as the financial crisis does not start to show up on the ground in that district, he’s safe. 15 percent.
As a general note, the calamity that is the Democratic leadership in Springfield does tend to diminish Obama’s coattails, especially for people who don’t get the opportunity to vote out their favorite legislative bogeyman this yea, and especially when Blago is going out of his way to give show trials to dissidents, excuse me, destroy good government programs in the districts of Republicans and rebel Democrats. The calamity that is Wall Street will help Obama; it won’t do much to harm Aaron Schlock, er, Schock..
- Pat Collins - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:16 am:
10th District - Mark Kirk (R-Incumbent) vs. Dan Seals (D)
If you can’t win in 2006, you are not likely to win now. The only reason it wont’ be a blow out is Obama on the ballot. But enough will ignore all other races after O to let Kirk win.
* 13th District - Judy Biggert (R-Incumbent) vs. Scott Harper (D)
Lee Daniels’ last gift to IL will sadly, likely win. I’d like this guy to win, so a real R could take it back in 10
* 18th District - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D)
It’s not 2006 and Obama might play in Peoria, but he won’t help her there.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:17 am:
==Palin’s evangelical background which does NOT play well in the jewish community…==
Are you an evangelical? Or jewish? Or are you so prejudiced against either group that you would believe that they are lemmings too narrow minded to see beyond religion on issues?
- Pat Collins - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:18 am:
Kirk’s an easy villain. Judy Biggert is not.
Why? Their voting record is more similar than different. He may fit his district, she does not.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:23 am:
==Seals by 1%==
==Seals by one==
When you see comments like this, what these folks are really saying is that they have no polling evidence to support a win, but are really, really hoping.
I know. I’ve been there too.
- shore - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:37 am:
Orthodox jews tend to find common ground with evangelicals on Israel, not the entire jewish community.
Vanilla, the 10th is very very socially moderate-witness Kirk’s endorsement from pro-abortion groups-which is why Palin’s evangelical background which to many suggests socially conservative, could turn voters off-Kirk you would note didn’t release her favorables in his poll.
- bored now - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:42 am:
have you seen any polling since seals started advertising? let’s pretend you follow politics, so you know that polls taken after one candidate is on the air and the others aren’t *always* show a significant lead for the candidate advertising. so kirk’s recent poll only fits the norm. just as we’d expect.
the real question is, can kirk hang on when the playing field is level? last time, he kept telling people he had no real competition. now that he’s abandoned his aura of invincibility, you have to wonder how loyal his supporters will be. you have to be pretty loyal to back someone who’s not only completely ineffectual in congress, but carries the baggage kirk does…
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:51 am:
Kirk 53, Seals 47
Kirk is a great campaigner and he has obviously proven himself adept at raising truckloads of $$$. I also have to wonder what the DCCC’s commitment to this race will be in mid-to-late October if other tight races across the country look more appealing - or dire.
Biggert 55, Harper 45
How do you vote against someone that reminds people of a grandma? Seriously, though, she is well-liked enough and has been in office long enough to fend off a semi-serious challenge. Note I didn’t say semi-serious challenger. Mr. Harper losing by 10% is nothing against Mr. Harper.
Schock 60, Callahan 35, Schafer 5
Nothing against Ms. Callahan, but anyone who thinks she can sniff anywhere near what Schock will get is kidding himself or herself. Schock will hold this district as long as he wants. He raises money like gangbusters, is easily accessible and well-liked by people of the opposite party.
- bored now - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:54 am:
btw, to sorta answer the question, i’m not willing to pick percentages until i know who barack obama has cut ads for in these races. if barack cuts an ad for seals, i’d bet seals wins. if barack cuts an ad for harper, i’d favor harper. don’t know enough about callahan to speculate at this point…
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:57 am:
How could a VP nominee lose a congressional incumbant’s re-election? If you believe this than you have weighted voter’s priorities too heavily towards the irrational. Voters are not panicking over Palin, except for those intending to vote for Seals anyway.
- photogram - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:06 pm:
Judy by 8%.
I am genuinely concerned, she doesn’t run a campaign with dirt, never has, never will. She’s a moderate, but definately not a gun-grabber.
Harper is Rahm Emanuel’s hand-picked ex-patriot carpetbagger: the money will flow and the dirt will fly.
Kirk: by 1%,
but who cares? I hope he loses to send a message to the IL and National GOP about supporting a gun-grabber. Support and arms for Israel? LOL, he wants to disarm the Jews (and everyone else) that live here in the USA. He should come out of the closet and show everyone his blue streak.
Aaron Schock: by 35%
He continues to be a breath of fresh air in spite of his oral flubs on some issues.
- countryboy - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:11 pm:
Biggert/Harper is an actual race. DuPage had more Dem ballots voted than GOP in the primary. (A first…) Judy’s phone-based town hall meetings included some weak responses/answers for an encumbent, Scott now has money, and DuPage Dems are pumped with “We can actually do this…”
Too close to call…
- ConservativeVeteran - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:32 pm:
10th: Seals will win, 52%-48%. In 2004, Kirk got 63%, and, in ‘06, he got 53%. I live in that district, and I’ve received more mail from Seals’ campaign than from Kirk’s campaign, although Kirk has more money. Photogram, I agree that we shouldn’t care who wins, since Kirk’s latest rating from Gun Owners of America is 0%, and his latest rating from Planned Parenthood is 100%. An officer of Illinois Minutemen told me that Kirk went to Mexico, to help illegal aliens cross the border.
13th: Biggert will win, 54%-46%. She usually gets 55%-60%, and I haven’t heard much about Harper.
18th: Schock will win, 63%-37%. LaHood usually got 65%-70%. Schock is a state rep., but Callahan has no political experience.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:34 pm:
Kirk this time benefits both ways from endorsements he is receiving from environmental, pro-choice and education groups, and from the Palin factor which has excited the base which never has completely embraced him in the past.
Kirk has not let up this time and has raised more money and is pushing harder than last time.
Seals in the meantime is running the same identical campaign with the same identical issues and attacks, save for “the high price of gasoline” which was neutralized against him early over his purchasing votes for gasoline stunt. His message sounds shrill and tired, similar to that fan loaded with beer sitting at U.S. Cellular or Wrigley screaming “you suck” over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again!
Kirk 57% - Seals 43%.
Biggert should win comfortably as she is a good fit in her district, by 59% - 41% margin.
Aaron Schock I have seen in person twice speaking at events. Extremely good speaker with charisma who invokes “what a wonderful young man” reaction from many voters. Schock 55%, rest 45%.
- Ela Observer - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:35 pm:
Seals 50%
Kirk 50%
Kirk has the advantage in the air. But Seals has a substantial advantage on the ground. This one will be a nail biter.
- Princess - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:48 pm:
Schock will take the 18th by a huge percentage, at least 60%. Local coffee shop jokes that he’s slowly programing us with submininal messages ‘we must vote, we must vote Schock’. The size and amount of campaign signs in every imaginal place I’m sure prompts the jokes. Gotta say the draft bit is going to hurt Callahan no matter how she tries and spin out of it now.
- Long-time Lurker - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 12:57 pm:
In the Biggert race, it depends on how many disenfranchised GOPers show up at the polls. Obama has the state, so some may feel it’s not worth voting. Under normal circumstances, Biggert would be a shoo-in. With Obamamania infecting the state, it might be much closer than everyone thinks.
- RMW Stanford - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 1:02 pm:
Schock wins easy around 60% with Callahan at 35%-40% depending on how will Schafer does. Almost everyone I talked to on the other side of the race don’t seem to be to energized by Callahan. I even heard a few of them, particularly ones from Peoria, say that prefer Schafer over her.
I dont know enough about the other races to predict percentage finishes, I think that both Kirk and Biggert will win.
- Black Ivy - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 1:41 pm:
My money is on Seals for the 10th District as he is a former insider and a fresh new face; fingers crossed for Harper for the 13th District (no offense to Biggert, but it would be nice to see a Democrat leading this District); and (unfortuantely) I think boy wonder - Schock - will beat out the formidable Callahan in the 18th District.
- George H.W. Bush - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 1:58 pm:
Re: National R money
RNC spends only on presidential race
RNCC is close to broke, DCCC is outspending:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dems-spending-to-win-2008-09-16.html
- Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 2:36 pm:
10th, Kirk. 55-45. Would love for Seals to win, but he doesn’t seem to have the same sort of umph that he had in ‘06 and I get the feeling that people in the district just don’t care that much anymore.
13th, Biggert. 62-38. Even though she’s nuts, I have a lot of friends in that district who absolutely love her. Plus, Harper isn’t really the greatest candidate - he’s a little goofy and for a Dem to have a real chance in that district they’ll have to be moderate, serious, and command attention. Which Harper is not and does not.
18th, 50-50. I think Callahan may have a chance. She’s been working the outlying areas pretty hard and she has just enough of that folksy charm to sway people to her side. Schock seems a bit big for his britches, but I know he’s seen as the new rising star of IL Republicans. This one is going to be a lot closer than people think.
- there he goes again - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 2:50 pm:
I’ll sail against the wind on the 18th CD and predict a Callahan victory. My reasoning is that be election day, voters will tire of the new kid with blow-dried hair and prefer some substance during these very tough economic times that favor Democrats. The Obama tide will help carry her to a 51-49 victory.
- ben - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 3:10 pm:
10th–Seals 54%-46%. Despite the weak numbers posted by the Kirk campaign, I think people will make their minds up in the final weeks of the race, and that the majority of the undecideds will break for Seals.
13th–Biggert 55%-45%. Harper will make somewhat of a dent in her numbers, but not enough to win. This will be a two-cycle race for him.
18th–Schock 54%-46%. I don’t see Callahan doing much to win here.
- Gene - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 3:41 pm:
George Bush and Judy Biggert got us into this mess.
Families around the country are struggling to find work. A bad economy is shrinking what a good paycheck can buy. Our economy is under attack from a Judy Biggert-style of government and George Bush-appointed courts. Our taxes increase, while corporations and their honchos pay almost nothing. Our rights are eroding. Good jobs are flying overseas.
Enough is enough.
Scott Harper will help put more of us back to work, put more buying power in our paycheck while taxing less of it, call off the liberties-attack-dogs in government, appoint rights-respecting judges, make corporations and their fat-cat-CEOs pay their fair share, keep our rights protected and bring good-paying jobs back to the United States.
Do you have concerns?
Scott Harper will not take away your guns or force anyone to have an abortion.
Scott Harper values religion and will respect your right to practice your faith.
There is hope.
Things can change. Your vote for Scott Harper will start us back in the right direction. A vote for Scott Harper will strengthen our economy, put more of us back to work and more money in our wallets.
Union Carpenters around the country are struggling to find work. A bad economy is shrinking what a good union paycheck can buy. Organized labor is under attack from a John McCain-style of government and George Bush-appointed courts. Our taxes increase, while corporations and their honchos pay almost nothing. Making life easier for contractors is more important than job site safety. Union rights are eroding. Good union jobs are flying overseas.
Enough is enough.
After twenty-six years in the legislature John McCain finally says he will change government. Why not in the past quarter-century, when he had plenty of opportunity? It is bull. John McCain will not change anything. He will continue with four more years of rewarding the wealthy and sticking it to the union worker.
Union carpenters need change we can believe in.
Barack Obama will help put more carpenters back to work, put more buying power in our paycheck while taxing less of it, call off the labor-attack-dogs in government, appoint labor-respecting judges, make corporations and their fat-cat-CEOs pay their fair share, keep our job sites safe, our rights protected and bring good-paying jobs back to the United States for our brothers and sisters in organized labor.
Do you have concerns?
Barack Obama will not take away your guns or force anyone to have an abortion.
As a Christian, Barack Obama values religion and will respect your right to practice your faith.
As a man of color, Barack Obama respects the dreams of working men and women, regardless of color, giving no one undue influence or special treatment, because of their race.
There is hope.
Things can change. Your vote for Barack Obama will start union carpenters back in the right direction. A vote for Barack Obama will strengthen our union, put more carpenters back to work and more money in our wallet.
- markg8 - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 4:29 pm:
IL-13 Harper 56 Biggert 44.
Scott Harper, a complete unknown at the time outpolled Biggert and her anti-abortion challenger combined on Super Tuesday by 25,000 votes. DuPage took 133,000 Dem ballots to 109,000 Repub on Feb. 5th too. The district is changing. Biggert’s base of retirees is dying off or moving to FL, AZ. There’s been an influx of people moving from other parts of the country and overseas like Eastern Europeans and South Asians. Biggert’s nasty immigration bashing doesn’t play well with them.
Biggert started out with a huge money advantage but Harper has out raised her this year and her fundraising is way off from past years. Probably because the big banks she fought to deregulate on the Finance Committee are in big, big trouble.
She’s obviously worried. She opened a campaign office in Downers recently and is mounting a ground game for the first time ever. Too late for that.
Voters out here know she’s climbed on board the “drill baby drill” train yet she’s taken $88,000 from oil companies. She plays a photo op game at Argonne and businesses in the district who are adopting or developing green technologies. And while she sometimes votes for alternative energy R&D funding when it comes to changing the tax code to take away the fossil fuel companies’ subsidies and tax breaks to level the playing field so alternatives can compete in the market she’s right there with Bush holding back commercialization of the 21st century energy solutions we need. Her daughter is a pharmaceutical company lobbyist and she’s gotten $230,000 from them while voting against healthcare for our kids and veterans.
She’s been in lockstep with Bush on the fiasco in Iraq.
As for Harper he’s come out of nowhere to move up to the DCCC Emerging Races list (2nd tier), one of 5 candidates in the nation and the only one in IL recently. He’s just been endorsed by DAPAC, a big progressive organization. He’s one of only 14 challengers nationwide to out raise an incumbent this year. He raised more cash than all 4 of Biggert’s previous Dem challengers did combined for their whole races by the end of the second quarter.
He put together a volunteer organization that was able to send Bill Foster 100 activists for GOTV on election day March 8th and over 40 to Lafayette IN the Saturday before their primary. In the middle of July his canvassers knocked on 3200 doors for one big Saturday event.
When the DCCC announced a surprise “100 Days to Victory” contest the Monday afterward while his field manager was sitting on a beach in MD enjoying a much needed long weekend off and the computers were down for two days loading the new VAN his staff managed to pull together over 750 volunteers through out the district and across the country to canvass, phonebank, write letters and deliver yard signs. In four days.
Harper has an MBA in Finance from U of Chi. Last year he was working on his doctorate in Social Ethics at Oxford when several of us convinced him the most ethical thing he could do would be to set it aside to run for congress. He’s also been a successful businessman. He and a partner built a business in the city from the two of them up to over forty employees before he sold his share.
He’s a sharp guy with a breadth of experience and a lot of great ideas to get this country back on track. Needless to say he’s got a lot of people here in the burbs excited about him and his campaign. He’ll win surprisingly handily.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 4:30 pm:
Not a lot of knowledge on the 3 races; they are in traditional R areas (the 10th traditional liberal R, similar to R areas in New England). I think they all go R by 2-15% even in Obama’s year. I think Jason Wallace has the potential to break 2 or 3% in the 11th and help decide a close race (Ozinga is the likely benefactor but Deb still has an OK shot to win), Greens a non-factor elsewhere.
- photogram - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 7:33 pm:
Gene:
Hmm, I don’t think Gene understands the gun issue.
Obama has a solid anti-gun voting record, when he votes. You can’t just promise that away.
- photogram - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 7:36 pm:
markg8:
I never heard Judy do any of the “Biggert’s nasty immigration bashing.” Got any examples?
In fact, I’ve never seen her nasty about anything. She’s poise and class, all the way.
- McSame - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 9:27 pm:
Demographics are changing everywhere to the chagrin of the GOP, even in our historically republican 13th district. Judy Biggert has never had to fight a serious campaign in this district (she represented another district previously, speaking of carpetbaggers), and has so far been outfundraised by Scott Harper. The race has attracted attention from the DCCC, making the emerging races list, and will attract more funding from a broader base. I predict a tight contest, with Harper edging out the incumbent by a few points. Hinsdale will never go blue, but the majority of our district is solidly middle class, and is not as secure for the cons as once was thought.
- markg8 - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 9:39 pm:
photogram - ever been on one of her teletownhall conference calls? She usually holds these things at 10:30 in the morning so her respondees are 99% white retirees. Invariably the talk shifts to all “the other” people moving into the area. Judy is all too happy to tut tut right along with them as they accuse all “these people” of crowding their big families into small houses, sucking up welfare and services they think they’re paying for. Maybe Biggert is just too polite to tell them they’re racist. Nah who am I kidding. It’s what the Republican party lives on.
- Southern Illinois Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 9:49 pm:
Seals will pull it ut by a very small margin (less tha 1%). The national Dems are putting alot of money into this one and Obama will help with a larger Dem turnout. Schock will win his race 54-46. He is popular and seems to fit well with the district. Callahan just hasnt seemed to get much traction in the race and Schock gets alot of good press. Biggert should win too. I peg this one at 51-48 with 1% for Alesch. The Dems have targeted this race but she remains fairly popular and I dont think enough Repubs will change and vote for a Dem in this district.
- markg8 - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 9:54 pm:
BTW here’s another thing Scott Harper is for. He wants to lower the corporate tax rate and offset it by doing away with the hundreds of special tax breaks that major corporations have hired their tax attorneys and lobbyists to bribe the likes of Biggert to embed into the tax code like barnacles on the bottom of a ship. That’ll level the playing field for small businesses and start ups, and make the fat cats actually compete. It’s time we purge the tax code of loopholes and breaks that make it easier to ship jobs overseas and harder to start a business that can compete with Biggert’s big business favorites.
- markg8 - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:01 pm:
As far as I know Alesch the green in the 13th isn’t even running a race. He’s reported no fundraising at all. The only sign I’ve seen of the green party in the district all year was one guy wearing a t-shirt at a parade in Tinley Park last weekend. If he gets 1% I’ll be amazed.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:12 pm:
Seriously, has anyone even watched Harper’s interview with Jeff Berkowitz. The guy can’t even answer half the questions. He hasn’t even lived in the district for over two decades. Can’t the Democrats do better than recruiting a clueless ex-patriot carpetbagger that fancies himself a European Liberal? No one has even heard of the guy. It’s nice that he has wasted all of that money with nothing to show for it. His name id probably doubled just from the posts here.
- Heartless Libertarian - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:17 pm:
Thanks Gene, for copying and pasting talking points. The first half sounds like and SEIU mailer and the second one of those Barack mass mailings to flood calls anywhere that runs anything remotely bad about Obama. If I wanted to read complete trash, I would be over on the KOS. Thanks again.
- GreenFan - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:19 pm:
Markg, get your story straight. Alesch has been working hard. He has a active campaign, website, and is attending every event he can. Just because he doesn’t take big union money and other special interest money like Harper doesn’t mean he isn’t doing anything.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 10:56 pm:
This one’s easy. All 3 Rs will win for reasons previously stated, so I won’t repeat them. Numbers for Kirk and Aaron won’t be a high as some have predicted.
- Silent Majority - Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:37 pm:
Biggert 48.5%, Harper 51.5%. Judy is linked too much to the president. Most people are voting against 4 more years of Republicans.
I actually live in the 13th and more than half on the people I talk to, around 52%, are for change like in the 14th.
25,000 more people voted for Scott than Judy in the Primary. That is right around 3%. Those 25,000 know they are in a Republican District and are doing something to change it to a Democratic district.
Judy may be a nice person, but she is too close to Bush and as the Country gets into more messes like the financials and losing your nest egg along with your House, she will be dragged down with him.
- markg8 - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 12:28 am:
GreenFan I think the Green party did have a booth at the county fair but I haven’t seen Alesch or his campaign anywhere. I saw more of him last year than this year.
- markg8 - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 12:31 am:
And as for money Harper would be glad to compare small donations with Alesch and Biggert any day.
- markg8 - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 9:07 am:
Anonymous I suggest you attend one of Harper’s house parties where he answers questions from voters face to face. While he’s never been a professional politician and doesn’t talk in sound bite platitudes like Biggert he’s incredibly knowledgeable.
He grew up in Naperville and graduated from both Naperville North and Wheaton College. He got an MBA in finance at U of Chi. Then like so many others he moved to Chicago to start and build a business and made a lot of money. He took classes at UIC to qualify for the doctorate he wanted and spent two years in England (and last I checked they’re a pretty close ally, they even speak English which I’m sure will be reassuring to Biggert’s shrinking fan base) where he went to Oxford University, one of the most prestigious learning institutions in the world.
Trying to mock him as some kind of bizarro foreigner like you guys did Tammy Duckworth is not only ridiculous, it’s self defeating. In case you haven’t noticed there’s hundreds of thousands of voters in the district who don’t come from DuPage at all, including Judy Biggert and her chief of staff who, horrors or horrors is a native Chicagoan.
- markg8 - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 9:31 am:
Long-time Lurker - a lot of those disenfranchised Republicans (and independents who make up about a third of electorate) are gonna show up at the polls and vote Democratic. Obama, Lisa Madigan, and Jesse White among others have all gotten over 60% of the vote in DuPage alone.
That’s a big reason why DuPage Republicans who tried to peddle their ridiculous “recall all the state constitutional officers” petition all year long failed to get even 7,000 of the 21,000 required signatures to put it on the ballot in the county. That of course didn’t stop them. The Republican dominated DuPage County Election Commission was going to illegally put the referendum on the ballot anyway until the DuPage Democratic Party cried foul.
That petition drive shows just how weak the Republicans are in DuPage these days. As much as everybody hates Blago out here they couldn’t even get 7,000 to sign it in a county with hundreds of thousands of registered voters.
Like Obama says Americans aren’t stupid and that goes double for DuPage.
- Warren - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 12:39 pm:
10th With Seals winner in a very close race. Kirk has too many ties to Bush — if the economy is the issue the Democrats will do well.
Harper 52% — Biggert 48%
Scott has a lot of fresh ideas to replace the old GOP line of spend and borrow. The Joliet Herald News even said 4 years ago that Gloria Anderson would have run better in the 13th if she had given more attention to Joliet. Scott is well informed on the issues and will yield to the insurance companies and CEOs like Judy has done.
- Squideshi - Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 12:51 pm:
“I think Jason Wallace has the potential to break 2 or 3% in the 11th and help decide a close race (Ozinga is the likely benefactor but Deb still has an OK shot to win), Greens a non-factor elsewhere.”
He’s already polling better than that; and you would be wrong to assume that only Democrats vote for Greens–in just about every case, Greens take equally from Democrats and Republicans, with MOST votes coming from NEW and INDEPENDENT voters.
- markg8 - Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 9:46 am:
Squideshi I’d say you’re right at least in the governors race in 2006. A lot of Repubs didn’t like Topinka. One even told me she sounded like a southside barfly. But unless you have two really awful major party candidates I wouldn’t look for any Green to get 1%. This election is too important and the difference between Dems and Repubs is too stark for most voters to ignore and throw their vote away on a protest vote.
- UofCMBA - Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 9:43 pm:
Re IL-13, Biggert v. Harper. Harper has come from nowhere in January to mount the only credible campaign I have seen since Biggert inherited the seat ten years ago. As markg8 has said, Harper outraised Biggert last quarter, despite his not taking any PAC money. As for answering questions, I have attended several of his houseparties. He does answer questions, thoughtfully, unlike many politicians I know. I don’t know about you, but I want someone representing me who thinks and analyzes but makes a decision in a reasonable amount of time, not one who jumps at the first sound bite. If the election were held today, Harper would probably not win, but if the yard signs I see are an indication, the momentum is in his direction. In 5 weeks, he has a great chance.
The makeup of the district is changing. Besides the immigrants cited, we are also seeing new people from both Cook County and from other blue states. The new arrivals I see think, “Bush-Biggert-Republican-Yuck!”
For the first time I can remember in the 2008 primary, the Democrats fielded a full slate of candidates in my precinct. Also, a local insurgent group, Operation Turn DuPage Blue (OTDB), unseated the incumbent officers of the DuPage County Democratic Party and elected people with real fire in their bellies. The OTDB people work like dogs. They have filled the ranks of precinct committeemen and built a ground game to support the money and volunteers Harper’s campaign has built. Look for them to bust a gut to turn out Democrats on Nov 4, unlike what I have ever seen in this county.
And as far as voting for someone who looks like a grandma, the figures don’t lie. Most people here are smart enough to see that when Biggert talks, Tom Delay’s lips move. Her voting record does not help here when 75+% of people think the country is moving in the wrong direction. People I talk to are annoyed when her voter questionnaires ask which Republican alternative you support, not for a real spectrum of opinions.
And as for Alesch, he drives a big pickup. How green is that? I passed him one day … on my bicycle. I have not seen him in any of the four parades I marched in or campaigning at my railroad station. At least Biggert turns up at the parades. I tell my friends, “A vote for Alesch is a vote for Biggert.”
By the way, the word is expatriate. I was one. Try it sometime. It broadens your horizons.
I give it to Scott Harper, 53%-46%-1%.