97 Comments - heet101 - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:41 am: I think Obama will be more prepared because McCain made the goofy mistake of suspending his campaign. However, neither one of the men are prepared at this point to be President based on the “chicken with its head cut off” style poise they have shown during this economic meltdown. Bottom line: Fox News calls it for McCain, every other cable news network calls it for Obama. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:41 am: they will try to make their weaknesses strengths… Obama will try to be more passionate and fiery McCain will tone down his recent rhetoric and answer more calmly - BandCamp - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:42 am: I think that’s all we’ll get is the talking points from the past few weeks. Obviously, the economy is going to take center stage. But I also think you will see a polished Obama in contrast to McCain, who I think may get a case of the stutters when Obama goes on the attack, which should be his game plan. - Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:43 am: McCain will look uncomfortable, stumble and fumble over most of his words, and begin every other sentence with, “my friends.” But, it will be clear that he understands the topics at hand. Obama will stand straight, have a smug and elitist look on his face (indicative of the public’s perception of what a “statesman” should look like), will give generalized, rehearsed “answers” to specific questions, and will SOUND as if he knows what he’s talking about, because he will answer in generalities that mask his ignorance of the subject at hand. Obama will be perceived to be the winner of the debate due to McCain’s poor speaking and debating skills. Sad, but the likely outcome. - Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:44 am: Rich, have I been put into moderation? - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:44 am: They’re both going to point fingers at one another as to who is more in the tank with the financial wizards who caused this mess. Obama is going to talk about McCain the Great Deregulator. McCain is going to point to Obama’s buddies at Fannie Mae and his big-time fundraising. I’m going to a football game. - North of I-80 - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:44 am: Should be interesting; topic is foreign policy but the crisis of the day is the financial “Pearl Harbor” mess. HOPE that they go way off topic and ask questions that they’re not prepped for. That way we won’;t have to hear memorized talking points from the candidates. - Bo Jackson - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:46 am: If it’s McCain’s night he’ll come off as sharp, witty, able to push the change Washington thing and Obama will seem aloof, out of touch and unready. If it’s Obama’s night, he’ll nail George W. McCain and McCain will seem old, angry and bitter. As a Republican I hope it’s the former, realistically I think the media will give Obama points for showing he can hang in there and give him the win. - Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:46 am: By the way, this is a foreign policy debate, folks (unless they’ve changed the subject due to the recent news). - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:46 am: SW, no. Others, the campaigns were told last week that questions would be asked about the financial crisis. They’ve had plenty of time to prepare. - Vote Quimby! - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:47 am: This was supposed to be the foreign policy debate, but with the news now it should all be about the economy (or lack of it). This is BHO’s stongest suit, and I believe he will be fine. After hearing Letterman rip into McCain, and his actions yesterday, I think McCain is rattled, off-message and won’t be at the top of his game. Although most people probably won’t watch, the significance of events will increase the audience. I will be counting the number of times “Keating 5″ and “Rezko” are mentioned… - Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:47 am: If I type Obama, it seems my post won’t go up. What’s happening? - Tom B. - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:47 am: This kind of depends on the format. This was supposed to be about foreign policy, but all voters care about tonight is the economy. I hope the moderators change that, or one of the candidates says, “look, we need to talk about the economy,” and forces the other one or the moderators to acquiesce. I obviously prefer that candidate to be Barack. How does it go? Probably even. McCain is just awkward when he’s in formal debate settings and Barack’s nerves will probably get the better of him tonight. No fatal flaws from either, guessing this will be a draw unless one candidate takes control of it like the scenario I mentioned above. I also think talking about the economy will not favor McCain. Too many deregulation moves in his legislative record for him to wiggle out of in the first 30 mins. - Reality Check - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:47 am: Haven’t you heard, McCain won? Check the Web ad in this screenshot from the Post earlier today - http://www.washingtonpost.com/w p-srv/politics/images/26Sep _Friday_WSJ.JPG. (h/t The Fix: http://voices.washingtonpost.c om/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html ) - Been There - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:48 am: If Obama can stick to the message, that’s when he articulates very well and will be the perceived winner. If he starts to improvise or gets unexpected questions, that’s when he starts to stutter and stammer and starts talking in circles. McCain is better on his feet when trying to come up with answers off the top of his head. But getting Obama off message is difficult and he should come out of this on top. - Levois - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:50 am: The same way other president debates go, uninteresting. - Plutocrat03 - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:51 am: Never mind, the debate is on - phocion - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:51 am: The people who support Obama will say he won. McCain supporters will say he did. McCain will discuss things in his endearing folksy, direct style. Obama will use more prose than poetry, and he will ultimately acquit himself nicely. Undecideds will say this one is a draw. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:52 am: For whatever reason, Akismet has been putting several comments from this thread into spam moderation. I’ll keep an eye on it, along with the 90 other things I’m doing now. - Gadfly - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:53 am: I don’t think it will be a “win” for either side because of the topic evolution. There will still be some focus on foreign policy as that was the scheduled topic and McCain is obviously stronger there. Both campaigns have been told to expect questions about the economy, perhaps from a global standpoint, and I think Obama will have the strength there. At the end, it will be a wash and/or dependent on whether each candidate can get through the night relatively smoothly. I will say that I think this — a quick bail out or Congressional resolution to the economic crisis would’ve helped McCain because of his stunt the other day. But also because of that stunt, if a resolution drags on, he’ll find himself in deep doo doo. - BandCamp - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:54 am: I want to agree with been there…if it’s not on a teleprompter, Obama seems to struggle with the more difficult discussions. I would like to see the debate get to that, where both candidates need to react quickly to topics they may not be properly prepared for this evening. - Amy - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 11:58 am: Obama will look taller. - Irish - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:11 pm: Mc Cain will have difficulty distancing himself from the Bush policies which partially caused this mess. He will try to have his own agenda but will stumble when pressed, ie; regulate/deregulate. He will appear stiff, and impersonal as he often does in such a setting. If he goes on the attack against Obama he will look even worse and it will appear that the campaign is the most important thing, which contradicts the actions of setting aside the campaign and the debate in favor of fixing the problem. All Obama has to do is point out the Bush policies that caused this and he will be inadvertantly be attacking Mc Cain while not appearing to do so. Obama will appear more confident and will connect better when speaking of the Main St. impact. As the originator of the “Change” doctrine he is in a better position to not be an insider and thus not as responsible for the current situation. It will be decided that he won. - Captain Flume - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:12 pm: The Bammer will smell of burnt tobacco, but no one watching will know and it won’t be addressed by the questioners. JMcC will occasionally appear to be aware of something in the air, but not sure exactly what it is. This sense of uncertainty will make viewers uncomfortable. Most viewers won’t remember what either man said until they read the spin in the morning paper or hear it on the news programs. - central illinois inde. - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:13 pm: Barack is not going to win this foreign debate until he admits that the surge has worked- he can not dance around with his excuses about the anbar awakening, etc… Lets be honest, barack was against the irag war as a matter of convenience to secure the liberal votes in a primary with a bunch of white guys-the liberal votes control the primary. I was unaware that Emil Jones was briefing the state senate democrats on the national intelligence estimates at that time. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:15 pm: They’ll try to top each other over who is going to go the hardest after the Wall Street types they’ve both been hitting up for campaign contribution the last two years. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:16 pm: There will be much more discussion of the economy than initially planned. Obama will say “um” a lot, and McCain will wear a tight, pained smile when he hears an unpleasant subject raised. Lehrer likely will not ask McCain why his campaign purchased a web ad on the Wall Street Journal’s site claiming he had already won tonight’s debate at a time when his campaign claimed he wouldn’t debate until the bailout plan was settled. - Little Egypt - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:21 pm: Carefully orchestrated on both sides and never enough time for either to completely answer. Nothing new here. - Black Ivy - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:22 pm: Why was my comment deleted? WAs I not original enough for you, rich? Please advise? - A Citizen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:27 pm: McCain of course will appear a bit older and wiser than his young and inexperienced adversary. Without the Teleprompter BHO will stumble and, uh, falter. McCain wins in a landslide! - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:27 pm: ===WAs I not original enough for you, rich?=== For a self declared “independent,” it was one mind-numbing talking point after another. Please try again. - Wumpus - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:29 pm: McCain will look older, paler and shorter by comparison. BO will look darker, more handsome, youthful and energetic. It will go however you want it to go. McCain supporters will say he won, BObama supporters (media) will say he won…similar to the Keyes/Obama debate (if my memory serves me correctly). McCain needs to continue that this hosuing mess is the fault of business (for lending to these people who didn’t qualify ((no income no asset loans)), government for allowing this to happen with lack of oversight and consumers for signing up for ARMS and other silly mortgage vehicles. He can’t blame consumers alone, regardless of let the buyer beware. Obama needs to be careful not to blame business only, but do the same thing as McCain. Do not come across as smug an d condescending. Do not bloviate. - Speaking At Will - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:39 pm: Well, as a conservative who is going to be voting for McCain I expect McCain to get beat like a rented mule tonight. McCain has a “punchers chance” of coming out ahead tonight, but only a serious misstep by Barack will allow McCain to gain ground. - Obama Guy - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:41 pm: I think Bush is President today in part b/c his team mastered the expectations game before, during, and after the 2000 debates. By the time they started, they had everyone wondering whether he could finish 90 minutes next to the brilliant Al Gore. When he survived, and Gore made some mistakes, Bush looked to be of presidential caliber to many who couldn’t see it before. Obama’s rep as a great orator puts him at similar risk, especially vs. McCain who is knowledgeable and good with short, concise statements. He will be tough to debate on issues, but is very vulnerable if the debate is on himself - lobbyists, Keating 5, temprament, etc. Obama’s in a tough spot to make these the focus, given the supposed focus on foreign affairs tonight, and the public’s desire to see unity in a moment of crisis. - ChicagoDem - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:41 pm: I say BHO wins simply by standing tall, young, looking different and representing change in the minds of many. Obama will look into the camara, speak eloquently and mesmerize the audience; Oprah may even cry again! - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:45 pm: I never know if I should listen on radio, or watch the TV. It can be a huge difference. I just finished After Bush: The Case for Continuity in American Foreign Policy by Lynch and Singh so I hope the questions try and flesh out if there really are going to be many FP differences in the next Admin. Obama always looks unsure to me on TV…I’m guessing responses to question less important than looking like C in C and McCain will win that on TV but it will be a draw on radio… depending on if Obama can limit the ahs and so on he seems so prone too. - BobW - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:48 pm: I suggest you turn down the volume and just watch the body language of each candidate. Using the mute button will suppress all the sound bite chaff and tired old slogans anyway. Watch for which candidate exhibits a higher level of confidence in what they are tossing out for public consumption. Most citizens don’t listen to the content of what politicians say, they are more concerned about how they look in their suit. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:49 pm: ===suggest you turn down the volume and just watch the body language of each candidate. === That’s always excellent and must-follow advice. Same goes for TV ads. - cermak_rd - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:50 pm: I expect it to be a draw. As long as both gents show up, speak to the topics, and don’t act like jerks, and no one cries, it’ll all come down to who does the viewer want to win. - the Other Anonymous - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:51 pm: On style, let’s remember that Obama’s natural speach patterns in these settings contain a lot of “umms” and “uhhs.” For those of us in Illinois that are used to it, it’s not a problem — we know that Obama speaks deliberately and thoughtfully, and the fillers are just that. For those tuning in late, it might make Obama look hesitant or ignorant of the issue. On substance: the debate risks devolving into a discussion of McCain campaign tactics, especially the fiasco of “suspending” the campaign. McCain can stop this, I suppose, if he simply admits that it was a gimmick — something that won’t happen. Obama could also bring the debate back to issues by simply saying, “I think the Senator did what he thought was right and I won’t second-guess his decision.” Of course, Obama doesn’t have the incentive to say that, because he is so clearly benefitting from the bizarre tactics of the McCain campaign. Quite frankly, given the potential that this debate could turn into a debate about “suspending the campaign,” it’s a good thing the moderator is Jim Lehrer. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:52 pm: Obama guy, I’m not sure the public is in the mood for unity right now, unless unity involves ropes and lightpoles on Wall Street. - Captain America - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 12:56 pm: Central Illinois Independent Off subject, but Capitol FAx bloggers should stick to local or national politics, because few of them know anything about foreign policy. Anyone who think the surge has worked/doesn’t understand the reality of the political stalemate in Iraq. The purpose of the surge was to create an opportunity for the political compromise among the Sunnis, the Shia’s, and the Kurds. Violence has subsided significantly. The opportunity for political progress exists. But there has been little or no political progress. The American military can not impose/create a political solution in Iraq. The Sunnis’ Shias, and Kurds still hate us and hate each other. What this means practically speaking is that when American forces leave there will either be a civil war, a political partition of Iraq into three countries/regions, most likely both. Thst is going to happen whether American forces leave sooner or later. It’s entirely analagous to Humpty Dumpty. All the king’s horses and all the kiog’s men (the American military) will be unable to put Iraq back together again - after George Bush took it apart with ’shock and awe.” In other words partition and/or civil war will still occur, irrespective of the surge, whenever American forces leave. There are no likely strategically good outcomes for the United States, since long term stability In Iraq seems highly unlikely. - Law Student - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:15 pm: Obama will have to be more decisive in his answers- he stumbles too much when answering questions and takes too long to get things out of his mouth. He’ll probably be able to stay on message, so I think he’ll be okay if he can answer questions quickly. Unfortunately for McCain he has all this debate/no debate debacle hanging over his head. He blinked in a staring contest. He has to be able to show he’s a “maverick” without actually saying it. If he can do that, and remain cool-headed, then I think a lot of the independents who may be steering away from him will have another reason to go back in his corner. Overall, I think both candidates will get a slight boost in the national polls but the make-up of the electoral college will remain the same. - LadyRepublican - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:18 pm: Honestly - who cares. The candidates are well-prepared and their answers for the most part are scripted. Plus do you think that once in office they’ll actually stick to everything they said they would do during the debate - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:23 pm: Look at the polls on Paulson’s bailout before assuming McCain made a dumb move on suspending, or that Obama will want to even talk about this tonight. We’ve got Dems joining Bush against the GOP on a $700 billion Wall Street buyout. It may make more sense for Obama to talk about Pakistanis firing on US troops yesterday. - EmptySuitParade - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:28 pm: I think McCain will start be conceding IL and thanking all the Guiliani backers ( StatewideTom & Crew) for their full support. I think Obama will suspend his debate to fly home to root for the Sox. No one really cares about foreign policy - .Just My Opinion - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:31 pm: What debate? I’ll be at the Route 66 Mother Road Festival in Springfield oogling over 1,000 very fine vehicles. And I won’t have missed a thing. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:35 pm: neither of them could beat ditka if he were invited - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:35 pm: ===And I won’t have missed a thing. === Frankly, I’m not even sure what time the debate is. I may see you out there. - Undercover - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:37 pm: I will be surprised if it’s even marginally scandalous. It will be the same old garbage spewed on both sides. Nevertheless, I’m making a night out of it. - Captain America - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:42 pm: McCain has already seriously damaged himself by threatening to pull out of the debate for dubious reasons. He’s showing up because the polls suggest the American people believe there is no legitimate reason for cancellation of the debate, notwithstanding the economic crisis. Using the Kennedy- Nixon debate as a model, the best McCain can hope for is a draw. Foreign policy/national security is supposedly McCain’s strength. But Obama will be better prepared, calm cool, and collected, which usually plays well on televison. And McCain is no Richard Nixon in terms of knowledge about the details of foreign policy, so it’s hard for me to see McCain winning a clear victory on substance partiularly since some of his ideas/worldview are clearly wrong. But McCain should make a respectable showing on foreign policy. To the extent that the debate focuses on the economy, McCain has already lost that debate with the American public. He’s been erratic and all over the place ranging from, the American economy is “fundamentally sound” to we have a “national crisis” in the space of a week. I think he’s looked foolish, but I’m admittedly partisan. Obama has to avoid being overly professorial and long-winded and avoid significant gaffes. Both sides will declare debate victory. Barring a significant Obama gaffe, it’s all downhill for McCain hereafter. Palin has already discreditied herself with her general ignorance (not stupidity) and preposterous remarks about foreign policy. She doesn’t know much about national domestic policy. Biden just has to show up and be gentle with her to win that debate. If it weren’t for what Deborah Douglas aptly described as racial misgivings in today’s Tribune, and Obama’s strange unAmerican-sounding name this election would already be over. I think the election is Obama’s to lose. Tonight is McCain’s only “hope” to turn things around. I think he’s a decent man who isn’t at the top of his game. Too bad, he didn’t beat Bush in 2000. We’d probably all be better off if McCain had been President during the last 8 years. I think time and events have passed McCain by. - Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:42 pm: We can start a contest. The number of times McCain says “my friends” vs. the number of times Obama says “look”. When the dust settles, I believe that most pundits will claim it was “inconclusive” or that McCain had a slight edge, assuming that they stay on topic on foreign policy. If they toss in economic issues in foreign policy I predict that both will fall flat on their face. - the Other Anonymous - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:46 pm: Bill Baar suggests Look at the polls on Paulson’s bailout First, it’s way too early to get an accurate read on public opinion on the bailout. Second, any polls out there are probably about the bailout without any oversight provisions. That’s old news; everyone in DC agrees to oversight now. I think it changes the polling numbers on the plan as well. I do agree with you about waiting, though. I’m not Madame Cleo, ya’ know. - VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:50 pm: If McCain isn’t able to pull this weekend off after his gamble this week, expect him to announce that he will serve only one term as president if elected. Then expect him to be McCain about it and demonstrate leadership and sacrifice to gain with this new angle. Most voters like Obama but do not believe he is ready. By declaring himself a one-termer, McCain will regain the edge needed to win. - Jeff Miles - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:55 pm: Frankly biggest issue is how the candidates are going to tackle the present financial mess. what their strategies are. Should we not make the management of these companies pay the price instead of just bailing them out with overburdened tax payers money ? - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 1:59 pm: Paulson’s bailout, as defined earlier, was dead from the start. Polling on that issue is misleading, but people are hugely and uniformly upset, with good reason. Back to the question, please. - Captain America - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:14 pm: I wrote a detailed analysis of tonight’s debate, but it appears to have diappeared into cyberspace somehow. McCain starts with a serious disdavantage because of his threats to cancel his appearance tonight. He’s only showing up because the polls show that the American people genreally believe the debate should go on as scheduled, notwithstanding our economic situation. he succeeded in raing doubts about himself rather than projecting an image of strong decissive leadership Obama wins on style - he’ll be better prepared and cool,calm , and collected. McCain will make a respectable showing on the substance of foreign policy, but he’s no Richard Nixon in terms of his knowledge/understanding of foreign policy. At best it will be a draw on foreign policy for McCain. I think Obama will be able to hold his own on foreing policy, but McCain will make a respectable showing. To the extent that the debate focuses on the economy, McCain, the arch-deregulator, has already lost that debate with the Amerioan public. McCain has been erratic in his economic prouncements - he seems very confused: The American economy is “fundamentally sound” or in a “state of crisis” in the space of a week. MCain is a decent man, but time and events have passed him by. I think this election is now Obama’s to lose, despite what Deborah Douglas characterized as “racial misgivings” among significant segments of the American public ( today’s Tribune.) McCain’s only “hope” is for Obama to make a major gaffe, which seems unlikely, but certainly is within the realm of possibility. After tongiht’s debate, I think it’s all downhill for McCain. The public cleraly prefers Obama’s positions on most major domestic issues and the Biden-Palin debate is going to be awful for the Republicans. - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:14 pm: Friday night…maybe going for Beer at the Pioneer Tap is a better idea. If I were McCain though, the temptation would be to ask Obama questions directly and violate the format. I don’t think Obama handles disruptions well… ask Obama how he’d respond to the inevitable test… maybe implying our foes reluctant to test McCain the same way because he’s a little unpredictable?? - Dan S. a Voter and Cubs Fan - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:22 pm: I suspect it will be a replay of Kennedy/Nixon with Obama declared the winner by the media. With Obama’s charismatic TV Evangelist style he can say nothing and he gets worshiped. - Elder - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:23 pm: Well I think it will come down to whether Barack is relaxed and uses humor to go after McCain. If he is and if he does then he will win for being cool under pressure and not getting thrown off during the last several days craziness. McCain has looked erratic, and the contrast will help Barack. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:26 pm: Sorry, folks. Akismet keeps eating comments on this post. - A Citizen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:29 pm: Erratic and Confused ? The talking points are down to one word each. Not very inventive for the dems. Probably works for those with very short attention spans. - fed up - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:29 pm: Obama starts the debate by proclaiming he is a muslim and begins with a reading from the Koran, at which point Mcain admits being a communist plant programmed by China during his pow days. This causes a huge political shift and green party canadate Mckinley is elected becoming the first Women and African American elected president. Rush Limbaugh and Fox news ratings set new records for the next 4 years. - colt 45 - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:30 pm: the debate will go as anticipated with very few surprises. mccain will be the less articulate of the two but he is better in a non-scripted format than with prepared text. obama will sound good and seem thoughtful. mccain having many years in public service with foreign policy experience probably has the edge. that being said, i bet they’re talking more about obama’s hair tomorrow than anything else. it suddenly seems more gray. maybe it’s just me. - Eurepedes Pantsoff - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:31 pm: I think McKeating will have trouble finding credibility on this topic, given his involvement in the last banking blow-up at taxpayers expense - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:32 pm: McCain has looked erratic, and the contrast will help Barack. Obama’s hair has looked greyer to me. He looks tired. McCain looks like you need to nail him down… like he might start walking out in the audience…. taking charge… giving orders…. - Captain America - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:34 pm: Sorry for the duplicate post. If brevity is the soul of wit, the second one is better anyway! - A Citizen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:35 pm: Obama will get a 2nd amendment question and look like a moose in the headlights and Palin will come from behind the curtains and proclaim “Gotcha!” The spinners will proclaim McCain the winner with Palin as the best shot. - VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:45 pm: McCain will continue to surprise. He will do everything he can to throw Obama curves. McCain has shown over the past month that he will take risks. He is a man of action and doesn’t like to stand and ramble. For ten years he has been working for this nomination and will not go quietly through this campaign if he thinks he might lose. Obama has been getting told that he has already won, so he will not be risky. We saw at the convention an attempt by him to be less oratorical, and more concise. He blew Saddleback because he tried to be everyone’s friend, confusing everyone in the process. With the confidence his campaign has right now, he will be more willing to give a clearer answer believing he can afford to lose some voters at this point. Expect McCain to be surprising, and Obama to be more direct. - Say WHAT? - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 2:56 pm: McCain sends Sarah Palin in his place. She’s prettier than either of them. This way McCain can keep his word that HE will not campaign until the bail out situation is finalized. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:07 pm: I’d rather watch a debate by the four vice-presidential candidates (the two chosen and the two almost chosen). Now that would be interesting. - Phineas J. Whoopee - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:11 pm: I can’t believe Sarah Palin’s parents are rat killers. I don’t know where to begin with that but I certainly think someone will be all over it. - soccermom - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:20 pm: Louis G. Atsaves inspires me. Instead of counting the times Barack says “look” and McCain says “my friends,” could someone please come up with the rules for the Obama-McCain Debate Drinking Game? - steve schnorf - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:20 pm: Obama will sound erudite but somewhat overthinking. McCain will sound sincere and sure of himself. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:30 pm: A drink every time McCain says “Palin” and Obama says “Change” ought to get you about right, if not tight. - OneMan - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:35 pm: May tivo it, have a scout pack meeting tonight. My guess is that Obama is going to look really good. I have this sense of foreboding don’t know why, just do. - Vote Quimby! - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:38 pm: ==McCain sends Sarah Palin in his place== Her time comes next week in St. Louis. She needs to spend all time before then rehearsing and memorizing phrases. - irishpirate - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:41 pm: Sqauwk, Obama wins, Obama wins, Pirate want a cracker………..pirate want a cracker……. Seriously, I think we may be in the middle of a McCain mental breakdown. The last few weeks have been bizarre. He reminds me of Jane Byrne back in 1980 or so. Just out of it. I guess we’ll know tonight. - judgefuzzmeister - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:45 pm: Obama pushes one of McCain’s temper triggers - Wumpus - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:55 pm: For once, Obama wil be overestimated instead of underestimated. - yinn - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:56 pm: If a person wants to get something different out of the debate, I heartily endorse either listening without watching, or watching without listening, for a portion of the time. I think Obama’s occasional hesitancy in speaking off the top of his head signals not only thoughtfulness but the fine line he treads between showing (what I perceive as) a very real passion, and being the Angry Black Man which of course would be the Kiss of Death. What I would like to see him do tonight is to press McCain’s buttons. I have very serious doubts about McCain from the standpoints of cognition and temperament. If there is anything to be worried about, they should come out. As for how the debate actually will go: I am way too biased to answer with any authority whatsoever. - Lefty Lefty - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 3:58 pm: If the recent developments in the campaign are any indication, for economic questions McCain will tell some lies about his reformer credentials and Obama will maintain his stance in the middle of the road waiting for an indication of which way the wind is blowing. Foreign policy questions will be met by the surly, aggressive tone of the old warhorse that will scare the blank out of me but will endear him to the hearts of the many Americans still frightened by the GWOT. Obama will remain cool but confuse and turn off many voters with too much information, kind of like Kerry did. But he will also make some good “there you go again”-type remarks a la Reagan that will endear him to many voters who think he is too staid. - Cassandra - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:04 pm: McCain will will project a kind of clunky sincerity and energy and will not get visibly angry. Obama will get in a few clever returns which will highlight his obvious public speaking skills and he’ll hold down the lecturing. It’ll be a draw. I would say that while many believe Obama makes McCain look kind of elderly, I think McCain could also make Obama look rather youthful–not necessarily a plus for Obama in these perilous times. - doubtful - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:05 pm: McCain has really been showing his age lately, physically. He looks terrible. I really suspected the ’suspension’ was medically related at first, but he didn’t really suspend anything except a trip to Letterman, so I’m starting to think it’s just the stress of the campaign getting to him. I really think that stress will affect him tonight, though, but if Saddleback taught us anything, it’s that McCain is resilient and good at reciting his talking points at least. I’m a little surprised by his campaigns failure to maintain expectations. Between the leaked ‘McCain Wins’ banner adverts and the campaign’s dismissals of Obama as an unskilled debater, I think they’ve put the pedestal very high for McCain. On foreign policy, a perceived strength of McCain’s, he will likely do well. Economics, a self-professed weakness of his, is another story. Nothing he’s done this week has hinted at any newly acquired economic prowess. I think he would do better to limit the time that topic is given. Obama tends to over think and stammer a lot while giving answers, but he’s taken more time to prepare for this debate than his opponent. I think it will pay off. He comes in leading in the national polls and looking more like an adult after saying a President needs to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Someone upthread mentioned McCain would lambaste Obama’s tenuous Fannie Mae ties, but I doubt after the revelations about Rick Davis and Freddie Mac surfaced that McCain will want to broach the subject. I honestly think it’s his to lose, and I doubt he will. A good showing in this debate will have him up in the national polls next week by 7-8 points and in battlegrounds like Indiana up by 2-3. - The Ibenidiot - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:14 pm: It won’t be what is said. It will be the impression of how they deal with each other. I think McCain is ok on answers but strong on personal interaction. If McCain can make Obama look like a junior legislature, it will impact voters. Obama needs to stop looking down his nose, it appears arrogant. If Obama can throw in some beer drinking, TV watching regular guy comments, he will do well. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:23 pm: Doubtful, I’m not even sure what “economic prowess” is. Some of the allegedly sharpest economists on the planet worked at AIG, Lehmann, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, WaMu, Freddie Mac, Treasury, the Fed, et. al. ad infinitum. Yet here we are. It turns they were just a bunch of churn-and-burn hustlers who looked no further than the next quarterly dividend and bonus and who could only keep the Ponzi scheme going as long as new cash poured into the system. Don’t you long for the days when your bank was made of granite and marble and had a big vault door? And the people who ran them had a stake in your community and weren’t just brokers? - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:36 pm: …this may well be a draw… Foreign Affairs may be a yawner… it may be the really decisive debate will be Biden and Palin which will frame a subsequent debate which really tips the polls. - A Citizen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:44 pm: Someone needs to remind the staff to have Obama take his Gas-X and McCain his Flomax. We do not want any avoidable delays or interruptions. - soccermom - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:45 pm: Ladies drink every time McCain says Palin. Men drink every time Barack says ummmm. - A Citizen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:48 pm: And a healthy dose of Immodium D all around. Especially for Jim Lehrer. - doubtful - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:53 pm: Men drink every time Barack says ummmm. -soccermom Are you trying to kill us!? - Judgment Day Is On The Way - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 4:54 pm: Debate or the Cubs. CUBS WIN!! - Carl Nyberg - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 5:03 pm: 1. McCain partisans will whine that the questions are unfair and had a liberal bias. 2. McCain will emphasize the surge being successful at reducing violence in Iraq. 3. Obama will emphasize that invading Iraq was a bad idea. There’s less than 50% chance he emphasizes Bush lied to make the case to invade Iraq. 4. On the bailout Obama will deliver the talking points given to him by Warren Buffett, who has a bit of a financial stake in the bailout after dropping $5 billion on Goldman Sachs. 5. I think there’s a chance (under 50%) McCain becomes Sarah Palin incoherent when discussing the bailout. His position has been inconsistent and I’m not sure he understands the problem in a meaningful way. 6. I’m curious what gets said about Pakistan. That the U.S. military and Pakistani military are shooting at each other directly is a big deal. It’s not breaking into the public’s awareness b/c of the bailout crisis. 7. I don’t think he’ll ask, but I’d like to see a question about how international law should restrict the sovereignty of nation-states. “International trade agreements, like NAFTA, and int’l trade organizations, like the WTO, have binding enforcement mechanisms that override national sovereignty issues. However, on security matters and human rights, int’l institutions lack the ability to make binding decisions. The World Court issues advisory opinions. Are the enforcement mechanisms for the WTO and NAFTA insufficiently deferential to national sovereignty? Is the United Nations excessively deferential to national sovereignty?” - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 5:09 pm: word, amen on the banks. I hear the drinking game for the Veep debate is drink every time you hear a “gaffe.” That will be a rough night! Rich, you’ll find AA with the cars, despite my reminder text from the Obama folks to tune in the debate on CNN. If McCain could put forth a bit of Reagan optimism and less “grumpy uncle” that would go a long way toward helping him tonight. He should have at least a level playing field on foreign policy, but the economic issues could trip him up, esp. if he appears aloof or out of touch. Obama crew has been managing expectations downward today, don’t know what that means. Hasn’t been a great week there either-seemed off message all week and flustered by McCain’s machinations. Needs to talk specifics, not rhetoric, to win. AA does not think this debate seals the election by any stretch. - Bill Baar - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 5:09 pm: Re Carl’s #6. Obama needs to explain a lot on that one.. it will be asked, and he will stumble… Obama stumbles because he ran so far left and now tries to move middle and over compensates with sounding really tough e.g. invade Pakistan. McCain had to reach to the right from the middle and Palin’s given him space. Obama’s got the far tougher bridge to straddle and it brings out the Lawyer in him. I don’t know how much domestic questions will figure into this, but the more I read, I wonder if this whole debate becomes stalemate unless a big gaffee and we aren’t waiting until a few days before the election before things break… - Stash candy - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 5:36 pm: I think McCain will appear nervous. - some former legislative intern - Friday, Sep 26, 08 @ 5:37 pm: Obama has to look competent and reassure the voters that he will protect them. If he is able to do this, he will be fine. If McCain is able to portray him as someone who would rather negotiate with terrorists than kill them, McCain will win. I suspect both will partially achieve what they set out to do and overall the debate will be a draw. Hopefully I’ll catch a replay later–I am spending the night working on my thesis. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.