* The Tribune’s latest poll doesn’t tell us much that most of us already didn’t know or suspect…
The Tribune poll found Obama with the support of 56 percent of the state’s voters, compared with 32 percent who said they are backing McCain. […]
The economy was by far the No. 1 concern of voters across the state. A total of 57 percent named it the top issue of the presidential race, with affordable health care second at 14 percent. Terrorism and the Iraq War were the top concerns for only a fraction of the voters.
Asked which candidate would do a better job of restoring the economy and jobs in the country, voters chose Obama by a nearly 2-1 ratio, 54 percent to 28 percent. The Democratic senator also held an advantage among independents, who are often the deciding factor in elections.
* More…
Overall, 45 percent of the state’s voters have an unfavorable impression of Palin, compared with 33 percent who view her favorably. In contrast, Biden was viewed favorably by 54 percent and unfavorably by 23 percent.
* What is new, however, is that the Tribune has finally decided to post its poll results online. Mother Tribune has refused to do this in the past, so nobody knew what they might be withholding from us lowly plebes. So, when you see something like this in the article…
Obama has a 72 percent to 19 percent advantage in Cook County including Chicago. But in the Republican-leaning collar counties, Obama’s advantage narrows to 47 percent to 39 percent over McCain. In the state’s remaining 96 counties, Obama’s numbers shrink to a questionable lead, 45 percent to 41 percent.
You can go to the poll and see that Obama leads among men (55-34) as well as women (58-30). That’s unusual.
By the way, a 47-39 Obama lead in the collar counties is truly significant. And a four-point lead downstate, even though the MoE is pretty high for that result, is still nothing to sneeze at.
* Looking at the poll also gives us this narrative…
Obama leads 56% to 33% among white suburban women. In the same table, the race is 50% to 40% for McCain among fairly conservative voters and 59% to 29% among very conservative voters.
Suburban women are absolutely key to winning Illinois. McCain is getting trounced in that demographic. And he’s not doing nearly as well as he should among conservatives.
* Also not mentioned in the Trib story was this result on a question of which veep candidate is more qualifid to take over the duties of president. You may want to click the pic for a larger version…
* And this little, but unsurprising nugget got buried…
…only 18 percent in the Tribune poll approve of the president’s performance…
The poll itself shows that McCain voters are sharply divided over President Bush’s job approval: 43-44. Also, 78 percent of independents disapprove of Bush’s performance, while just 12 percent approve.
Go read the whole thing.
* Somewhat related…
* Early Voting Soars In Suburban Collar Counties
* Thousands electing to vote early
* Springfield, IHPA can’t rule out another Obama visit
* Durbin to be at NIU on Tuesday
- Captain America - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:25 am:
Anyone,who sincerely believss that Sara Palin is more qualified/better prepared to take over the duties of President of the United States than Joe Biden obviously has some screws loose. It objectively demonstrate that ideology has seriously impaired their judgment.
I prefer to conclude that a significant number of the McCain supporters perceive that loyalty to McCain requires them to fudge their answer to this question on his behalf, rather than conclude that so many Illionoisans are seriously deluded. Or maybe they just like her better so they equate those positive feelings with qualifications/preparation.
- Richard Leakey - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:28 am:
Looks like they had a Biden v. Palin story to me…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/loca
l/chi-palin-poll21oct21,0,3406802.story
- Rufus - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:29 am:
Perhaps the numbers are in the ball park, but only a sample size of 500… a very small sample size, 190 people for the 96 counties, that’s 2 people a county with 2 counties having only 1 person (on average, of course). I would be vary wary of their margin of error. Many of the cells have 2-3 percentage points based on one person opinion.
The poll was done on the cheap, thus not very valuable. The Tribune is cheap, showing that major newspapers are down in the dumps. It’s sad.
- Heath Care for ALL - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:30 am:
Once again the demand for affordable, accessible and guaranteed health care is clearly front and center. When will the political leaders take action. A study that will be released on Thursday will reinforce Brian Berber comments in the Tribune today that compares the cost of health care premiums versus workers wages.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:37 am:
RL, the Biden story is linked above and discussed.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:54 am:
We’ve all been so close to it, I think sometimes we lose sight of the fact that we’re living in historic times. It’s not over yet, for sure. But this morning, I’m contemplating who in the world would have thought five years ago that Obama had a chance to be president. It couldn’t happen anywhere else. Warts and all, what an amazing country we live in.
It was bittersweet to see Colin Powell on Meet the Press. What a patriot. I only wish he would have have taken the chance he had back in 2000.
By the way Illinois GOP, that’s the kind of guy you’re looking for.
- Phil Collins - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:56 am:
If Powell ran for president, he would have run as a Republican. He wouldn’t be able to win the nomination because he’s pro-choice and pro-gun control.
- Mike Fourcher - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:05 am:
Not really sure why Trib took so long to publish poll methodology and detailed results. I’d asked them before, and usually got just a shrug. Maybe this is part of Zell’s requirement to “unlock value”. Yay Zell!
- HoBoSkillet - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:08 am:
PC - For the reasons you stated is why I do not think the ILGOP would adopt Powell either. Let’s get Alan Keyes to run for something again - that was fun!
- Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:29 am:
Overall this is an excellent poll result for Obama, and a big reason of why I now think I was too conservative with a 58-42 prediction.
However I cannot trust the geographical breakdowns. The sample sizes on these subgroups are so small that even 47-39 in the burbs is within the margin of error. Why couldn'’t the Trib poll 1,000 overall instead of 500?
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:54 am:
Any Chicago polls reflect a home town advantage for Obama. They are not reflective of the national campaign and do not reflect who will win the presidency.
Cool your jets.
Additionally, the anti-GOP mindset is preventing some posters from understanding why this race is closer than they are saying it is. By treating opponents with respect and being open minded, you may discover that voters who support your political opponents are not ignorant racists or monsters of some kind or another.
Those who regurgitate hate filled rants are not thinking.
- doubtful - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 11:02 am:
Why couldn’’t the Trib poll 1,000 overall instead of 500? -Angry Chicagoan
Because you’re literally doubling the work for maybe a point of change in the MOE. It’s simply not worth it.
The chance that 47-39 is really approaching 43-43 is practically nonexistent.
- Rufus - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 11:59 am:
Doughtful — the “Burbs” sample size of 114,not 500. Thus it has a MOE of 9.8%, showing 47-39 average has a ranges of 57-37, and 49-29. 43-43 is a very real possibility, with these poll results.
The Trib does not do the community well with polls of such a small sample size. Polls like this should be taken with a very large gain of salt.
But people will believe what the want to believe.:^)
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:06 pm:
Every time a poll is posted, a bunch of people feel the need to nitpick every result.
Must be some sort of blog tradition.
Also, in this case, it could be the ol’ “river in Egypt” defense mechanism.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:13 pm:
Rufus, 114 respondents is +/- 8.65 percent MoE. So, you’re right. But you’re looking at it the wrong way.
Considering the 47-39 margin, the statistical probability that Obama leads McCain in that subgroup is 82.2 percent.
Stop fantasizing. It does no good here. lol
- Greg - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:24 pm:
In stats, error is basically a measure of how much “extra” you need to declare, with a given degree of confidence (usually 95%), that proportion X exceeds proportion Y.
Obviously, a larger sample size is always better, but the size of the sample impacts error less and less as the sample size rises, since it’s an exponential relationship. What’s probably a bigger concern is the randomness of the sample.
If the sampling is correct, then the probability of the 47% candidate NOT exceeding the 39% candidate, is small but not ~zero (probably about 2.5%, but I haven’t done the math.)
- Greg - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:26 pm:
oh, sorry, I guess Rich did the math. 82% sounds low to me (don’t forget that only one tail matters), but then again I struggle with tip calculation.
- Deeda - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:44 pm:
Where did my last post go? I saw it then I refreshed and know its gone. What is this?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:47 pm:
===Where did my last post go? I saw it then I refreshed and know its gone. What is this?===
You’re now in moderation due to several rabid, tinfoil hat, drive-by comments that were apparently designed to debase the conversation.
Don’t like it? Go away.
- Deeda - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:53 pm:
Sorry.
- EmptySuitExpress - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 1:30 pm:
Wow, SaraCuda only get 53% of the McCain voters. Hope she does not drag down any of StateWideTom’s darlings.
- Diet coke - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 1:54 pm:
November 4th will soon be here and we won’t have to see or hear about these goofy polls.
- Deeda - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 2:29 pm:
Deep Pockets, You are right.
- Captain America - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 2:36 pm:
Vanilla Man
Maybe Rich has already purged the regurgitated hate-filled rants. I don’t see anyone calling anyone a racist or a monster.
Please let’s be more considerate in the future about Van Man’s delicate sensibilites - factual summations and reasonable interpretations of political facts and circumstances tend to disturb him greatly, when they conflict with his view of the world. I think it’s called cognitive dissonance??
I belatedly read a post last week that Van Man was very fearful that expressing his honest opinions might result in finding “dead pets on his step.”
Van Man, I’ve passed the word - your pets are safe with us.
But we are looking for a “dead elephant” to put on your lawn - sometime between November 5th and Januuary 20th. I’m not exactly sure if/when a pachyderm carcass will become available. We might have to settle for a stuffed pachyderm, as a symbolic gesture. Would that be intimidating enough???
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 2:44 pm:
==Maybe Rich has already purged the regurgitated hate-filled rants==
Yes, he did. Except for yours.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 3:21 pm:
Rich missed one.
This is from another posting today…
==McCain’s campaign is a new low in American politics; the all-tactics-and-no-strategy Palin pick, the smearing and negativity, the channeling of George Wallace and Richard Nixon’s divisiveness, and all on behalf of a candidate who is patently less qualified and less temperamentally suited to the job than three or four of his GOP primary opponents.==
Regurgitated? Check!
Hate-filled? Check!
Rant? Check!
And no one should ever question Obama as he walks down their street. Because if he tells you he wants to “spread the wealth around”, your privacy will be invaded, your job suspended, and a hundred media will dig through your trash as The One’s supporters crucify you as a racist loon.
No. Those not voting for Obama are not feeling safe due to these kind of incidents.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 3:23 pm:
I did miss that one. Must’ve been while I was doing something else.
The “no one should ever question Obama as he walks down their street” should be amended to include, “Because Drudge and then McCain may turn you into a national figure and the media will come swarming.”
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 4:59 pm:
Was it the questioner or the answer that was newsworthy?
That is where I draw the line. Joe isn’t running for president. We should be able to ask questions without being torn apart by a supposed flubbed answer.
If we were updating the “Emperor’s New Clothes”, we’d have to update the end of the story so that we’d know that the emporer’s supporters dragged the little boy out of the parade and hounded him out of the country after he exposed the emporer’s obvious flaw.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 5:19 pm:
===That is where I draw the line. Joe isn’t running for president. We should be able to ask questions without being torn apart by a supposed flubbed answer.===
What flubbed answer?
He’s been hounded by the press because he was used by a presidential candidate as an illustrative example (or “gimmick” depending on your view) over and over and over and over in a very important televised debate seen by tens of millions of people.
- Anon - Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:53 pm:
Has ANYONE noticed Obama broke his promise not to accept public campaign funds? That’s where his latest $150 Mil came from. Not suprising, just wait to see how much of his rhetoric he even remembers if he gets to DC. I’m sure he’ll remember how they do things in IL government though….
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 8:58 am:
==He’s been hounded by the press because he was used by a presidential candidate as an illustrative example (or “gimmick” depending on your view) over and over and over and over in a very important televised debate seen by tens of millions of people.==
When a candidate stumbles due to a public appearance or hecklers, or individual, there had been a line drawn that protects those people from personal attacks and privacy invasion. An unwritten rule, but based on dignity and courtesy.
We’ve had embarrassing questions thrown at candidates during debates, but you didn’t see the embarrassed candidate’s staffers and supporters go crazy on the questioner - until Joe the Plumber met Barack Obama, that is.
It has become acceptable to political war on civilians, thanks to this incident. While McCain jumped on Obama’s “spread the wealth around” answer and used it during the last debate, Obama should have clarified his answer, give another answer, give an excuse, or whatever - just as politicians had in the past.
Instead we saw a line crossed. What’s next? Are we doing to see the private lives of hecklers on television? After all, they embarrass candidates, are we going to go after them too?
The entire incident is a black-eye to politics and a new low for campaigning. His answer may have exposed his university education, but how he dealt with the questioner exposed his ugly underneath.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 22, 08 @ 9:26 am:
VM, the man is now appearing in a McCain TV ad.
Not exactly a delicate flower.