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Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Do you ever go to a riverboat casino? Which one(s)? How often? Explain either way.

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Blowout or overblown? *** UPDATED x1 ***

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post thinks GOP freshman Congresscritter Peter Roskam is one of a new batch of Republicans “in real races” because the bottom has dropped out on the Republicans.

If Roskam really is in trouble, then we’re in for a landslide of epic proportions - like 1932 or 1936. In which case, there’s nothing much that Republicans can do except pray.

* Progress Illinois has funded a new poll in a different, much more pro-Obama district, and found the Republican incumbent is leading…

Dan Seals (D): 41%
Mark Kirk (R): 47%
Undecided: 12%

More…

In the middle of last week, the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington conducted the above survey for Progress Illinois in the 10th Congressional District. The results are very similar to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted two weeks earlier, which also found Democratic challenger Dan Seals down by six points (44-38%).

A few toplines…

Presidential results…

Barack Obama (D): 56%
John McCain (R): 35%
Undecided: 9%

400 likely voters, conducted from October 15-16, 2008, MoE plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

*** UPDATE *** PI has a new poll in the 11th Congressional District, which for whatever reason didn’t include the Green Party candidate…

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Martin Ozinga (R): 29%
Undecided: 22%

More…

The 11th Congressional District poll conducted for Progress Illinois by the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington found a 21-point lead for Democrat Debbie Halvorson, similar to the 19-point gap in the internal poll she released on Friday (which included Green Party candidate Jason Wallace).

Republican Marty Ozinga ’s unfavorables (30%) continue to outweigh his favorables (20%), which certainly spells trouble. Independents made up 42 percent of the polling universe in our poll and they also appear extremely wary of Ozinga, with only 14 percent saying they support him and 41 percent still on the fence.

Some toplines…

Presidential…

Barack Obama (D): 49%
John McCain (R): 38%
Undecided: 13%

45% said “The economy and jobs” was the most important problem.

* More congressional stuff…

* NEW: Joliet Herald News - Halvorson will best represent our interests

* Kirk, Seals spar over Iraq, women’s rights

* Kirk, Seals debate in 10th District race

* Conaty calls Kirk’s drilling claim “a bit disingenous”

* Immigration a Key Issue in Congressional Race

* Oberweis hopes to connect with voters on economy

* Foster running at a frantic pace - at home and in D.C.

* Thousands turn out to vote early in Peoria

* Morgenthaler “Won’t Commit to Moving” to IL6

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Poison, handwringing and pipe dreams

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The toxicity of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s reign just claimed another victim. Democratic congressional candidate and Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson was passed over for endorsement by the Chicago Sun-Times today…

As for Ozinga’s opponent, Halvorson can claim some legislative accomplishments in Springfield, and we admire her work ethic. Unfortunately, given her leadership position in the state Senate, she also bears some blame for the quagmire in Springfield, as much as she’d like to distance herself from it.

* As you already know, both Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga have attempted to tie each other to Blagojevich…

Halvorson rose to majority leader in the state Senate, and Ozinga sees that as a liability — she was too close and too obedient to state Senate President Emil Jones and Gov. Blagojevich, [Ozinga] says. […]

Halvorson said she finds it ironic that Ozinga tries to tie her to Blagojevich when Ozinga gave tens of thousands of dollars to Blagojevich’s campaign.

…ADDING… Progress Illinois’ new poll has these favorable/unfavorable ratings for Gov. Blagojevich in the Halvorson/Ozinga 11th CD…

Blagojevich
Favorable: 10%
Unfavorable: 74%
Neutral: 11%

…ALSO…. PI’s poll in Mark Kirk’s district has these Blagojevich numbers…

Blagojevich
Favorable: 10%
Unfavorable: 74%
Neutral: 11%

* Illinois Republicans, faced with the prospect of a Barack Obama blowout, have stuck to a simple game plan: Tie all Democrats to Rod. The Democrats are trying to do the same to their Republican opponents, with varying degrees of success..

From the suburbs to Southern Illinois, Republicans and Democrats alike campaign against him, trying to tie their opponents to the governor in mailers and ads. […]

“Who wants to be associated with him?” said veteran Illinois political watcher Paul Green, Roosevelt University’s School of Policy Studies director. “He’s poison.”

* The State Journal-Register wrings its hands on the governor’s inability to govern, but offers up no really solid ideas…

It’s hard to see how he suddenly becomes an effective chief executive flush with political capital to burn.

This situation is more than fodder for a bull session among political junkies. At a time of economic peril, Illinois needs strong leadership.

* The Daily Illini comes more to the point…

With an approval rating like that and the feds breathing down your neck, how does one govern?

Well, you don’t.

* And while reporters for its own paper lay out in detail how poison Blagojevich is right now to the body politic…

“It would be the kiss of death for him to send a campaign contribution, even if someone turned around and sent it right back,” said Kent Redfield, a political scientist at the University of Illinois’ Springfield campus who tracks Illinois politics and campaign spending.

…the Daily Herald editorial page insists that Blagojevich will somehow control the constitutional convention delegate election…

We’re certain Governor Rod Blagojevich’s political machine also would be involved.

Yeah. OK.

* As an aside, the Daily Herald also brings up this impossible dream…

It’s hard to vote the rascals out of office when the only real contest is during the primary and challengers fail to surface.

To change this, other states have turned to computer models and rules that prohibit using election results or the address of incumbents. Term limits also would guarantee new blood. These are some options that might be worth considering.

But we don’t need a convention to make this difficult fix. We have the amendment process.

Not mentioned is that such a proposed amendment would have to receive a three-fifths super-majority in both legislative chambers. Not gonna happen.

* Related…

* Hoping for the best, planning for the worst

* Restore funds for mental health, substance abuse, protesters say (Video)

* Supporters push con-con

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Connecting the dots on Mrs. Blagojevich’s clout *** UPDATED x1 ***

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from Saturday, updated and comments opened.]

* Taken on its own [and combined with a new update below], a new Sun-Times story looks more promising than it may actually be. But things might become more clear once we connect some dots with another story published today.

First, the Sun-Times…

A Chicago developer and donor to Gov. Blagojevich steered more than $100,000 in commissions to first lady Patti Blagojevich’s real estate firm before a business owned by the developer’s parents saw dramatic increases in state payments. […]

In 2002, before Blagojevich took office, the state paid Tiran’s parents’ home-care company for the developmentally disabled, Diane Home Care, $183,000. In 2003, during the governor’s first year in office, the payments increased to $325,000. Last year, Diane Home Care did $1.1 million in state business through a contract with the Human Services Department. […]

Sources who spoke to the Sun-Times on condition of anonymity said [FBI] agents had asked questions about Patti Blagojevich’s real estate dealings with Rezko. The work got under way in July 2003 — about six months after the governor began accepting Rezko’s recommendations to place people on state boards and about eight months after Patti Blagojevich landed a $47,000 commission from a Rezko land deal.

A few things to remember…

1) This doesn’t appear to be about Rezko.

2) Patti Blagojevich has had a real estate license for a long time. Every one of Dick Mell’s kids has a license. She’s known politically connected people almost all her life.

3) There is no stated direct link between the increases to the DD home-care business and the real estate connections. There may be a rational explanation. But so far, the corruption is all implied.

4) Tiran and his companies have given just $20,525 to the governor’s campaign fund. Not a lot by any stretch.

* So, this AP lede is way out of line with the facts in the Sun-Times story…

Commissions Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s wife made in her real estate business are linked to increased revenue for a state contractor’s family business, according to a published report.

Not quite.

* A new Tribune story claims Mrs. Blagojevich’s real estate firm earned $700,000 on real estate deals over seven years. That ain’t much during such an over-heated market. “Of those commissions, the Tribune found more than three-quarters came from clients with connections.” As I explained above in point 3, that doesn’t tell us much, either. She’s known connected people all her life.

* But this is where the dots might be connected. According to the Tribune, Mrs. Blagojevich appeared to use her proximity to power to obtain a job as an investment banker…

“I’m not going to lie to you, it would have been great for us to get one of the state pension funds,” said Peter Contos, president and CEO of North Star, who sponsored the first lady’s application for a federal license. […]

Contos said his firm decided to hire Blagojevich, who has a degree in economics from the University of Illinois, because of her political ties. He said she was recommended to him by an administrative staff member. […]

Contos said he and others at North Star encouraged her to find work at a bigger firm but she touted her connections and her ability to bring in business

* So, to sum up, while there may very well be something to this real estate business, there is no clear connection to wrongdoing as of yet.

However, as the Tribune story alleges, Mrs. Blagojevich touted her obvious political connections and her ability to land state business in exchange for a potentially lucrative job. She was also recommended by an administration insider. That goes directly to how she may have operated, not only in this particular instance, but during her real estate career.

* But here’s the rub…

“But after three months she brought in no business,” Contos said. “Obviously, her connections weren’t as strong as advertised.”

In the end, she turned out to be all talk and no action and had to leave the firm. So, nothing is completely clear-cut here.

Still, this is not good news for the Blagojevich family.

*** UPDATE *** The Trib ran a separate story Sunday about that Tiran real estate deal mentioned at the top…

Tiran recently told the Tribune he hired Patricia because she was recommended by the alderman in his ward, and not because of her family ties.

“No impact whatsoever,” he said. “And I believe they sold the whole project. They did a good job.”

[Ald. Dick Mell] said it’s possible he, too, had talked to Tiran about hiring his daughter but saw no problem with it.

“It’s conceivable that I mentioned it to Virgil that if he were looking for somebody to sell the property that my daughter is in the real estate business,” Mell said. “But just because I mentioned it to Virgil doesn’t mean he had to hire her. I’ve helped other Realtors who I know too.”

The real estate story looks even less “bad” now, but there’s still that problem with the revelations about how Mrs. Blagojevich allegedly got that investment banking job.

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Schock to be investigated

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from Friday afternoon and comments opened.]

* FRIDAY 5:30 pm - Via the Peoria Pundit comes word of this interesting preelection probe…

The Peoria County State’s Attorney’s office says it has received a request from 18th District Congressional Democratic Candidate Colleen Callahan to investigate her Republican opponent Aaron Schock.

The request revolves around whether Schock committed official misconduct when he postdated [sic] documents for his parents as a notary public. […]

The state’s attorney’s office says due to the time sensitive nature of the manner, it is reviewing Schocks’ work as a notary and they could have the results next week.

* Callahan has been demanding an investigation into what would be an eight year old misdemeanor, if true…

“We can not be deceived here, this was not a mistake this was a premeditated act devised to shelter his families fortune from the US government, there is no dispute on this point his father testified to these facts under oath and Aaron Schock is trying to mislead us as voters.”

Lots of background here.

To me, the alleged misdemeanor is no big deal. What I found appalling was that the local media allowed Schock to claim without challenge that the apparent back-dating was a “clerical mistake” when his own father testified under oath that it was a deliberate act.

I guess it really is always the cover-up that gets you. As commenter GOPer noted yesterday…

Very disappointing. Schock’s first instinct is to not be truthful - even about small things, where the truth would have worked just as well. Reminds me of Bill Clinton.

If he had just said something like, “I was 19 and I made a mistake I regret” - I could accept that.

But instead he goes into dishonest cover-up mode. On one level this is a small thing - but it’s a big test of his character, which he’s failed.

Yep.

23 Comments

Morning shorts

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning

* Recession threatens virtually every segment of local economy

“This one is going to be a full-fledged consumer recession,” says Paul Kasriel, director of economic research for Chicago-based Northern Trust Corp. “With corporate-led recessions, you have job losses. But now you have households with record debt, and liquidity at near-record lows and net worth falling — and they’re losing their jobs.”

* Foreclosure crisis hits city, suburbs

Each foreclosed home reduces the value of other homes in a one-block radius by 0.9 percent, according to the Woodstock Institute.

About $2.5 billion worth of property in the Chicago area reverted to the lender in 2007.

* Illinois Poverty: Addressing the Causes, Investing in Solutions

* From Southern Africa to Southern Illinois, poverty needs to be stopped

* Calatrava stops work on Spire, files lien

* County aide suspended in probe of contracts

Cook County President Todd Stroger’s best friend’s wife, county purchasing agent Carmen Triche-Colvin, was suspended after an inspector general investigation found she violated county policies for awarding contracts and used a fax machine in violation of federal law, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned.

* Peraica cuts it close with ethics ordinance

A year after running afoul of Cook County ethics rules, Republican state’s attorney candidate Tony Peraica is again benefiting from thousands of dollars worth of office space from a landlord with county business, state records show.

* FOP Chief: Contract Finalized Within a Year

The head of Chicago’s police union says he thinks officers will have a new contract within the next year.

* Buyout bonanza for some short-time city workers

When Mayor Daley offered buyouts to nonunion city workers to fight a gaping budget deficit, some short-timers on the city payroll were able to cash in on a pretty good deal.

Any active, full-time, salaried, nonunion, civilian employee qualified for a minimum $12,000 payout — regardless of how long they’d been on the city payroll. A few workers left with a payout of nearly half their annual salary — after less than a year on the job.

* City Health Dept., food inspection cuts put public at risk: union boss

* Seniors can’t pass up free rides

* Firm that guarded CTA wants job back

* New CTA Brown Line has rough edges, building shortcuts

* Daley defends payments for grades

The nation’s third-largest school system has handed out more than $265,000 in checks for good grades.

Chicago Public Schools distributed payouts Thursday to 1,650 freshmen in 20 high schools as part of the privately funded “Green for Grades” program unveiled last month. Freshmen and sophomores receive $50 for A’s, $35 for B’s and $20 for C’s every five weeks.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - EV impact on legislative races (Use all caps in password)

Sunday, Oct 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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This just in… Sen. GOP Leader Watson has “very minor stroke” *** UPDATED x2 ***

Sunday, Oct 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* SUNDAY, 6:54 pm - Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson has been hospitalized. Sen. Watson, 63, was reportedly experiencing slurred speech and some numbness/weakness last week and checked into the hospital on Friday, where he remains. His condition is being characterized by several sources as a “very minor” stroke. But from what I understand, he is making calls from his hospital room.

The Senate Republicans are notifying their membership as I write this. A press release is promised later. More info when I know more.

* 6:58 pm - From the Senate Republicans…

Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson has been hospitalized. Doctors believe he had a very minor stroke. He expects to make a full recovery.

He has been in communication with his staff all weekend and continues to direct activities — legislative and campaign.

While campaigning in Southern Illinois, Watson began experiencing some noticeable discomfort — leading to his hospital stay. Watson is in good health and expects to make a complete recovery.

* 12:44 am - From the AP…

Watson spokeswoman Patty Schuh said Sunday evening that Watson has been hospitalized since Friday afternoon in St. Louis. She said he started to feel ill while campaigning for GOP Senate candidate Ken Burzynski of Benton.

Watson represents the state’s 51st district in the southern Illinois city of Greenville. Schuh says doctors consider the stroke “very minor” and Watson is expected to make a full recovery. She said the 63-year-old senator remained in the St. Louis hospital on Sunday evening and was undergoing assessments.

*** UPDATE *** From Lee Newspapers…

Watson had been on the campaign trail Friday with 59th Senate District candidate Ken Burzynski, R-Benton, when he began noticing something was wrong, Burzynski said Monday.

‘’We were just down here working together, visiting folks, knocking on doors, things like that,'’ Burzynski said. ‘’We could tell something wasn’t just right, so he had it checked out. He didn’t fall or anything.'’

State Sen. Dave Luechtefeld, R-Okawville, tried to check in on Watson at the hospital Sunday night, but scuttled the visit when he learned Watson was sleeping.

Luechtefeld said Watson is talking, but his speech is slower and ‘’kind of hesitant.'’

‘’There’s no doubt he’s had some effects,'’ Luechtefeld said. […]

It is not clear how long Watson will be hospitalized.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Just how bad is it?

Senator Dave Luechtefeld, a member of the Senate Republican leadership, has visited Watson in the hospital and says he is in good spirits. Luechtefeld says Watson may not be back at the Capitol in time for Veto Session, which is scheduled to start November 12.

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