* Whew. What a week. I’m done. If you’re not, head to Illinoize, where the party never ends. And make sure to buy a classified ad or calendar placement at InsiderzExchange, the place to be seen.
* As I told you below, a Democratic poll reportedly has Dan Seals leading Republican Congresscritter Mark Kirk by about a point. GOP polls have Kirk up by 4-5 points. A new Research 2000 poll taken for Daily Kos has Seals leading Kirk. Previous 9/30-10/1 Research 2000 poll is in parentheses…
The Highland Park Republican’s campaign also continues to bring in thousands of dollars a day in donations just more than a week out from Election Day. For example, [Kirk’s] campaign took in nearly $40,000 on Wednesday and Thursday alone.
Seals, on the other hand, reported having $269,344 on hand as of Oct. 15. His fundraising since that point as continued to lag Kirk’s, according to 48-hour updates recorded with the Federal Election Commission.
LBJ had the good sense to run his infamous “Daisy” ad — the one where a little girl picking petals off a flower is annihilated by a nuclear explosion — once. Here’s Democrat Colleen Callahan suggesting Daisy could get wiped out by her opponent’s support of nuke sales to Taiwan.
The ad…
…Adding… Statement from Callahan campaign…
Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will be canceling scheduled campaign events until further notice in order to be with her family after the death of her mother. Elaine Callahan passed away earlier today at the age of eighty-four.
• Emil Jones, the president of the Illinois state Senate, mentor of Obama, and one of Blagojevich’s rare allies in the legislature. Furthermore, Jones will be without a job at the start of next year; he announced in August that he plans to retire in January, 2009.
• Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who would serve two political purposes. First, her appointment could please the faction of the state legislature led by her father, Michael J. Madigan, who is Illinois House Speaker and a bitter opponent of Blagojevich on spending issues. Second, it would literally get a potential gubernatorial rival out of town.
• Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth, who narrowly lost a House race in 2006.
• Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. , who was an early supporter of Obama and is an experienced congressional hand.
Whatever. If anyone knows what our governor will do on something this important, then please come work for me. We’ll make lots of money.
The story ends with this…
Those pondering the possibilities, though, agree that Blagojevich is unlikely to want any direction from Obama, and unlikely to get it.
“Obama will not step foot into Illinois politics. It’s a minefield,” said Paul Green who is a professor of policy studies at Roosevelt University. “He’d go to Kabul before he’d go to Springfield.”
My own view is that anyone who gets this job is gonna be horribly tainted by the Blagojevich appointment. It’s a political death knell.
Obama Illinois State Director Ken Bennet, who has been keeping a low profile all this time, emerges in a video to ask Illinois Obama backers to flood the neighboring key battleground states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. Since there is not much Obama work to do in Illinois, the Illinois movable feast has been targeting the adjacent Big Ten states.
The Obama campaign has told me this export of political talent will not drain big House campaigns in Illinois where Democrats have a chance to make red districts blue.
U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean’s newest TV commercial is a folksy piece that touts her background as a working mom and former business owner.
The 30-second ad, which launched Thursday, is softer than the congresswoman’s first TV piece, a fairly somber spot that focused on the nation’s economic crisis.
* C3 Presents, the Texas concert promoters who bring Lollapalooza to Grant Park each summer, have been tapped to stage the massive celebration the Obama campaign is planning to hold in Grant Park on election night.
* And the folks pushing for a “Yes” vote on the constitional convention have a new video…
* The AP reports that the cruise ship the governor’s been riding down the River Nile has apparently sprung a leak…
Gov. Rod Blagojevich is blaming his low approval rating on the nation’s slumping economy.
The governor says his 13 percent job approval rating is unrelated to the federal corruption investigation that’s been swirling around his administration.
Blagojevich contends that he’d easily win if he were running for governor in the upcoming election
* Blagojevich did make a self-effacing and quite funny quip about the Trib’s poll which showed him at 13 percent approval, however…
“That’s a baker’s dozen, right?” Blagojevich jokingly asked reporters after an unrelated news conference in Blue Island. “I consider that a lucky number.”
Blagojevich said he doesn’t think he’s done anything to garner such a low rating and said politicians across the state and country are being targeted by voters unhappy about higher gas, food and housing prices. But he dodged questions about the growing federal investigation of his administration.
“I love the people of Illinois more today than I did before,” Blagojevich said. “And if it’s a case of unrequited love at this point, I’ll just have to work extra hard to get them to love me again.”
He might start by doing what they want.
*** UPDATE *** Chicago Public Radio has posted audio clips.
Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.
Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.
GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.
* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…
Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.
Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.
About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.
Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.
* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…
Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.
Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.
Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.
“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”
* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…
As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.
The NRA was not impressed…
“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”
* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…
* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…
The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.
Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]
Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]
“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”
Are you being inundated with campaign mail/TV/radio ads? If yes, explain what you’re seeing and hearing and whether any of it is effective or even counter-productive.
The opponents of a constitutional convention in Illinois have collected more than $1.2 million for a campaign to persuade Illinoisans that there’s nothing wrong with Illinois government that elections won’t fix. But that’s part of the problem. The special interests opposed to a convention are the same interests that bankroll and control the Legislature and state government today. How satisfied are you with that mess?
That opening graf sums it up quite well.
* The paper offers up several problems that a con-con could address, including this one…
The current constitution requires that “(a)ppropriations for a fiscal year shall not exceed funds estimated by the General Assembly to be available during that year.” Yet, using a loophole, the Legislature has consistently spent more than it is taking in. That’s why, according to state Comptroller Dan Hynes, the state has about $2 billion in unpaid bills, much of that carried over from the last fiscal year.
* I’m going to address this first point soon, but the second point made here is also on target…
The opponents say the con con process would be dominated by the same legislators and/or special interests that control the Legislature today. Perhaps, but that wasn’t the case with the constitution of 1970. Those delegates, many of them bright, independent thinkers, were elected on a nonpartisan ballot. They produced a document that has held up fairly well, although it needs improvement.
* And I totally agree with this conclusion…
We do not make this recommendation for a constitutional convention lightly. It will require hard work by people of integrity and good will. Preparations leading up to the convention, as well as its work, will require vigilance by the news media, good government groups and others. But Illinois government is such an embarrassment that this extraordinary step is needed. The political parties have had years to fix the situation and are either unable or unwilling to do so. The voters must act. [emphasis added]
* Jim Edgar and Dawn Clark Netsch held a joint press conference yesterday to oppose the con-con vote. Edgar and Netsch ran against each other for governor back in 1994, so they are quite an odd couple…
Both leaders said the high cost of a convention which some estimates project at approximately $80 million is difficult to justify at a time when the state is facing deficits and is not meeting its obligations on education, health care and roads.
Those deficits are allowed by the loopholes in the current constitution that they both support.
* A Tribune article today includes this insight into the interest groups opposing the con-con…
They share the belief that stopping a constitutional convention now will be cheaper—and safer—than spending money on electing and lobbying delegates to push their own special agendas against each other.
That’s true to a point. More next week.
* The Paul Simon Institute poll asked about the convention as well. Is a con-con ncessary because state leaders are not addressing the problems, or could the problems be addressed other ways and a convention might not help and could make things worse?
*** UPDATE *** Jim Edgar is featured in a new TV ad by the Alliance to Protect the Illinois Constitution…
* Chicago’s police hiring isn’t keeping pace with natural attrition, crime rates are up, police morale is down partly due to a lack of a union contract, and now this…
As police Supt. Jody Weis returns to the hot seat during a City Council budget hearing today, Chicago is outpacing New York and Los Angeles in 2008 murders.
Chicago, whose population is dwarfed by those cities, posted 426 killings through Tuesday, compared with 417 in New York and 302 in L.A.
* Cops are being taken off the streets to fill out more paperwork as well…
At today’s hearing, Weis may highlight what police view as a different problem: Officers have spent nearly 5,000 hours filling out inventory forms in the first nine months of 2008. “We’d rather they be on the street,” said Beatrice Cuello, deputy superintendent of patrol.
Arguing that Millenium Park has “transformed the image” of Chicago, Mayor Daley on Thursday defended his decision to spend $8.1 million in annual hotel tax revenues to secure and maintain the park.
Daley turned to the hotel tax after plans to create a conservancy funded by private donors fell through. The plan came under fire this week from a South Side alderman, who demanded to know why the hotel tax was being tapped when upkeep of the park beset by construction overruns “wasn’t supposed to cost taxpayers a dime” and neighborhood parks are a shambles.
On Thursday, Daley fired back.
“Millenium Park has transformed the image of the city. If it wasn’t for that, this city would be living in the past, and it’s really a city of the future. … This is a tourist atttraction — not only for citizens [of Chicago], but for the world. That’s re-defined Chicago,” the mayor said.
Um, mayor? Being known as the murder capital of America may also “transform” the city’s image, and not in a good way.
* There’s a whole lot to go through in a new, comprehensive poll released by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, but let’s start with the media coverage. Daily Herald…
A new poll of Illinois voters finds support for balancing the state budget through cuts rather than tax increases, just so long as the things voters support aren’t on the chopping block.
And that favorites list includes school funding, police and prisons, state parks, help for the needy and a litany of other big-ticket programs that make up the overwhelming majority of state spending.
The head of the Southern Illinois University think tank that commissioned the statewide poll said the findings show people are uninformed about state finances and unable to grasp the depths of budget problems.
“The public really has no idea what the scale and the scope of this crisis is,” said Mike Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
Absent cuts to those programs, Lawrence, a former Statehouse reporter and top aide to Republican Gov. Jim Edgar, said Illinois will need some kind of tax hike to climb out of its budget hole.
“We need to have a reality check,” Lawrence said.
When it comes to raising money, the poll found that voters supported a graduated income tax, in which wealthier people would be taxed at a higher rate.
But, because such a change in tax policy would likely require a change in the state constitution, it could not serve as a quick fix to the state’s current financial challenges.
Sales and income tax increases were soundly rejected, and expanding gambling and selling or leasing state assets such as the lottery were turned down.
Lawrence blames that on voters not understanding how big the budget problem is.
For example, he said respondents want to cut legislative salaries or those of high-paid state employees but noted that would cover only a tiny piece of a budget facing billions of dollars in debt and deficits.
“There’s no painless way out of this budget situation,” Lawrence said. “We need to have a reality check.”
The Regional Transportation Authority and about 30 other transit agencies around the country could be on the hook for a combined $1 billion as a result of the financial troubles of American International Group, the insurance giant.
Illinois, which suffered severe flooding this summer, will receive about $14 million in federal aid as part of a U.S. Department of Transportation distribution.
Illinois court systems are so sure they won’t be ready to deal with a new stalker law coming on the books Jan. 1 that they are making a last-minute push to delay the mandate.
The law, inspired by the slaying of an Arlington Heights woman stalked by her ex-boyfriend this past March, would place defendants charged with violating an order of protection on 24-hour GPS monitoring from the time they make bail until sentencing.
The three Cook County state’s attorney hopefuls weighed in on the recent federal indictment of former Chicago Police Cmdr. Jon Burge in a televised debate Thursday that at times got testy.
Republican Tony Peraica took the opportunity to accuse his rivals, career prosecutors Thomas O’Brien and Anita Alvarez, of remaining mum on the Burge case during their two decades in the state’s attorney’s office.
Much of Chicago’s high-rise public housing has met the wrecking ball. But a low-rise complex called Lathrop Homes has been dying a slow death. Now the Chicago Housing Authority says it’s forming a panel to determine the project’s fate.
“You have to look at whether or not you isolate and segregate children. A holistic approach has always been to have children of all different backgrounds in schools. When you start isolating children and you say, ‘Only 50 percent here, 40 percent here’ — same thing we went through with the disabled — then you want to do that when they’re adults,” Daley said.
