Crowds, maps and money
Friday, Nov 14, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Sun-Times takes a look at the ever-growing field to replace Congressman Rahm Emanuel…
Ald. William Banks (36th), who will convene the slatemaking session, said at least 15 candidates have expressed an interest in replacing Emanuel, making it difficult for any one of them to get the weighted votes needed to secure an endorsement.
Man, the list is long…
The crowded field of candidates includes at least six aldermen: Manuel Flores (1st), Ariel Reboyras (30th), Tom Allen (38th), Margaret Laurino (39th), Tom Tunney (44th) and Eugene Schulter (47th). Ald. Patrick O’Connor (40th), Daley’s unofficial City Council floor leader, is a long-shot possibility.
Also calling Banks to express an interest were state Representatives John Fritchey, John D’Amico and Sara Feigenholtz; state Rep.-elect Deborah Mell; former Emanuel challenger Peter Dagher; Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley; Illinois Veterans Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth; Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Commissioner Cynthia Santos, and John Borovicka, Emanuel’s former chief of staff.
“When you have that many officials running, many of whom are committeemen or aligned with committeemen, it’s harder to form coalitions. It would be very difficult to slate one individual. That could result in an open primary,” Banks said.
An open primary would be fascinating.
* Mayor Daley went all out for Emanuel back when the Rahminator was first elected. Not this time, perhaps…
But a top mayoral aide predicted Daley would remain neutral this time around.
* Meanwhile, the Tribune editorialized this week about our crazy redistricting/reapportionment process…
Were voters really so impressed by the quality of representation they’re getting in Washington and Springfield? Hardly. The reason so many incumbents got a free pass to a term in office, or won by such lopsided margins, largely depended on how state politicians draw boundaries for congressional and legislative districts. Those influential pols aren’t interested in giving voters competitive political battles. They’re interested in protecting themselves and their cronies in their parties.
Voters? Who cares about voters? The politicians redraw the maps by law after the census every 10 years. Illinois gives the legislature first crack at this. When legislators deadlock — and they have every 10 years since this system was adopted in the 1970 state constitution — the job is turned over to a commission of four Democrats and four Republicans. When that commission deadlocks — and it has every 10 years except in 1971 — the politicians pull a name from a hat or flip a coin to decide whether to add a Republican or a Democrat. […]
The desire to protect incumbents explains why parts of the state have become secure fiefdoms for one party or the other. Voters are bit players in this rigged game. In Chicago, for example, redistricting essentially has blocked Republicans from building even small geographic bases. And while suburbia has grown more Democratic in recent elections, the Republican Party has its protected pockets there.
All true.
* And a study of the 2008 election results shows that self-funding candidates don’t do well at all…
49 Congressional candidates spend $500,000 of their own money, and of them, only 6 House candidates and 1 Senate candidate won.
Perhaps the saddest case of this was Sandy Treadwell, who ran against Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. Treadwell poured in at least $5.9 million of his own money. (Gillibrand spent $3.6 million, but only $250 of that was her own money.) The return on Treadwell’s investment: priceless. If by ‘priceless,’ you mean losing to Gillibrand by a 23-point margin.
The Illinois GOP might take that as a broad hint to stop recruiting those self-funders.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 11:50 am:
I hear the list has shortened considerably. Is the Speaker clearing the way for Sara?
Claypool out. Now I hear Fritchey is bowing out? Duckworth saying she doesn’t want it as much as the Senate seat…
- Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:00 pm:
Treadwell got 109,644 votes, or about $54 a vote. Still far short of the Blair Hull Standard of $216 a vote.
- pro - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:05 pm:
I heard some rumblings about Fritchey stepping aside, too.
If true, not very surprising. He’ll continue to do the Speaker’s bidding and collecting those rewards. Wonder if he extracted any promises from Madigan - like funding for a statewide run? If not, he should have. Missed opportunity if not.
Kinda quick, though. Going all-in right up front and then hitting the road a week later…
And with your family (Ald Banks) controlling the process? Why Fritchey, why?!
- The Doc - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:13 pm:
Pardon my naivete, but I’m curious to see if any legislator addresses the redistricting issue in the next session, at the risk of alienating and angering a large number of incumbents. Perhaps a GA member who vocally endorsed a con-con. What’s the argument in favor of our current process?
- wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:23 pm:
Being in a Democratic Congress with a a Democratic president makes a House seat so very attractive.
- anon - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:49 pm:
Has Alerman Mell began clearing the field for Deb?
- Capitol View - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:52 pm:
what’s Tammy Duckworth doing here? Didn’t she run for Congress from a suburban district and lose?
I know that anyone can run for Congress and move into the district afterwards if they win, but is she already trying to collect IOUs if she is not appointed US Senator? Is this her consolation prize? Rediculous.
Personally, I like Sara F. This is a logical public service career progression for her.
- Amy - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:54 pm:
very personal comments on her right now. moderator?
- Amy - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:54 pm:
opps on here, although…..
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:58 pm:
Thanks, Amy. Been busy with my syndicated column and didn’t notice. Goofy comments deleted and commenters banned.
- rambler - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 12:59 pm:
Sara Feigenholtz is my pick. Great public servant.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:25 pm:
Commenting on a blog anonymously about “personal issues” might be over the line.
True or not.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:30 pm:
It has already resulted in two bannings today. Don’t be the third.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:32 pm:
Sorry - I don’t know anything about that. Not trying to get involved.
- Boscobud - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:44 pm:
I have a headache. It is like the election. Just pick someone and lets move on. We don’t need a rocket scientist to pick someone. Just do it.
- Self Made - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:46 pm:
Self-funders all all the GOP can get in many areas. It’s tough for a nobody to raise money by going out and trying to sell the GOP brand.
- Confused 2B - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 1:57 pm:
Why would John Fritchey already back down? If you put your name in-then run! This is the problem with politicians they say they want something to get something and then they walk away! Take responsibility for your actions and run if you say you are going to! That is why have SO many issues in this state! We need someone who will SAY they are going to run and actually do it! Stop the game! This is NOT a game!
- pro - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 2:17 pm:
That is a little over-the-top “Confused.” People decide against running for elections all the time, for very valid reasons.
As someone who lives in his district, it just seems John “chicken-little” Fritchey likes to say he is going to run for stuff all the time, but then backs out because of other people in the race.
I mean, did Deb “0 days serving and counting” Mell scare him out of the race? Get some backbone and put your neck on the line. Don’t be scared of losing all the time.
We have had too many politicians put too much energy into preserving their seats (careers) and not enough into sticking their neck out for something they care about.
That goes for the Senate candidates, too. Stop the wishy-washy will-I-or-won’t-I game and stick your neck out and tell us that you want to be a senator and what you will be able to do for the people of illinois.
It is about courage - courage to stand up for what you believe in.
Now, do I need my own facebook page?
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 2:21 pm:
For U.S. Senate and governor the party usually has an alternative to a self-funded candidate. For Senate and gov there’s almost always a career politician without vast personal wealth running too.
But for U.S. House and other down-ballot races there’s often not a viable alternative.
Attracting self-funding candidates is more the symptom of the Illinois GOP’s problem, not the problem itself.
Imagine if the Constitution Party, Greens or Libertarians started attracting self-funding candidates. Then the Illinois GOP would be in real trouble.
- Excessively rabid - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 2:51 pm:
Let’s have an emergency Democratic primary. We haven’t had an election in over a week.
- No Peotone Airport - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 3:13 pm:
An opportunity to change redistricting was (and is) the best reason for a constitution convention. To Jim Edgar, and Dawn Clark Netsch, and all those who said the problem isn’t the system, it’s the people we’ve elected: the system for redistricting and reapportionment makes it too difficult not to keep electing them.
- Teve - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 3:21 pm:
I am bummed it is not Claypool, yes Rich, I like Claypool.
- Downstate weed chewing hick - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 3:31 pm:
It stands to reason that self-funders, as a general rule, don’t do well. Fund raising is an art, but done correctly and legally, it is a measure of popular support. When you spend yourown money or only raise funds from non-voters, it gives you a false sense of support.
- ZC - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 3:41 pm:
Some people on this blog sure live in the fast lane. I don’t know about anyone else, but I didn’t see any big “Fritchey for Congress” bumper stickers or public statements by him in the media. His Facebook page has been neutral as to his intentions.
He EXPRESSED his interest, which is a normal stage in the process. Rahm’s selection as chief of staff is barely a week old; there hasn’t been any time to be wishy-washy about running! If Fritchey has concluded that a run doesn’t make sense (and no idea whether he has), all of a sudden this is some huge reversal? Lay off the guy.
Pingback A study in self-funding : Urbanagora - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 4:50 pm:
[…] Today Rich Miller at Capitol Fax referenced a study that illustrates the folly of self-financed campaigns, and observes that the Illinois GOP should take a lesson from this recent history. * And a study of the 2008 election results shows that self-funding candidates don’t do well at all… […]
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 10:00 pm:
We need an outsider for at least one of Barack and Rahm’s seats. I cannot believe no one has floated the name of Tim Nieukirk for either House or Senate.
Perhaps Rod holds grudges over the insurgent race for his job two years ago.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 14, 08 @ 10:02 pm:
One fake campaign at a time, please.
- Stephen Gadomski - Sunday, Nov 16, 08 @ 4:44 pm:
Senator DeLeo as the State Central Committeeman convenes the 5th District slating as the State Central Committeeman not Alderman Bill Banks.
Just for clarification.