Get used to the February primary
Monday, Feb 23, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz follows up on something I told subscribers last week. As you already know, Gov. Quinn has suggested that the General Assembly move the February primary to September next year so everyone could focus on governing instead of politics. Well…
Anyhow, according to Capitol Fax, Speaker Madigan recently had a chat with Senate President John Cullerton and suggested to him that no change [in the primary date] was needed. Mr. Cullerton’s Democratic caucus then met Friday, and agreed to the status quo. Ergo Mr. Quinn’s proposal is shelved, at least for now.
Spokespeople for the Speaker and the President won’t admit to a deal. But Mr. Madigan’s spokesman says, “I don’t think the Speaker ever felt the primary date ought to be changed on his own.” And Mr. Cullerton’s spokeswoman says the caucus reached its own opinion, and that changing the primary date “never was in the reform agenda that he laid out.”
So, all of the incumbents in the House and Senate get an insurance policy protecting them against challenges. And, in the process, Ms. Madigan gets to run at a time of year when her father’s organizational strength can be most effective. Ain’t life grand!
The only ones who lose are Mr. Quinn and those who believe that elections ought to serve the interests of voters and not those they vote on.
Why is Gov. Quinn perhaps the biggest loser?
Mr. Quinn obviously has a personal interest in wanting to move the date of the next primary back to September 2010 from February 2010. Doing so would give him more time to establish a record before quite possibly facing Ms. Madigan in the Democratic primary. And there’s nothing sacred about September as opposed to, say, April or May.
Anyway, the bottom line is the February primary will almost certainly stay right where it is.
- Niles Township - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 1:53 pm:
The only way to push back on politics as usual is to push back on the same old usual politicians and their tricks. For that reason, Ms. Madigan, while doing an admirable job as attorney general, has lost my vote in any Dem primary for governor. It is not her, it is her dad I am voting against. Since I don’t live in his house district, and I don’t have a vote for my party’s house leadership, this is the only way that I can vote against a Madigan dynasty and its political tricks. Based on talking with some friends, I am not the only who feels this way.
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 1:57 pm:
Brrrrr.
- Cassandra - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:00 pm:
This is a setback for Quinn but not necessarily fatal. I will say, though, that he hasn’t come out
with a strongly articulated agenda for a potentially very short reign, which could end in less than a year, in practical terms, if he doesn’t sucessfully make a primary bid for re-election. He has made the right noises about ethics reform, a few comments on the economy, mainly about how bad it is and implying he might have to raise taxes. Right now, he does look kind of like, well, a place holder. Speaking of which, did he go to the governors conference that is ending today. If so, he didn’t make much of a splash. Numerous governors were all over the national news but not our Pat.
- The Doc - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:04 pm:
Perhaps a compromise - setting the primary in late spring, sometime before Memorial Day, for instance - would be acceptable.
MJM and Cullerton could go a long way in convincing folks that they’re truly interested in substantive reform measures, rather than recycled rhetoric, with this first step.
As it is, I remain skeptical that LM has the courage or political fortitude to be governor. She would be well-served by operating in a manner that indicates true independence from her father’s agenda, as appropriate. This certainly qualifies as such.
It’s the downside of sharing the surname, especially in this current political environment.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:07 pm:
===Perhaps a compromise===
Um, do you spend much time at the Statehouse? Just askin…
- Anonymous45 - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:08 pm:
Niles Township echoes my sentiments exactly…maybe Blago was crazy, but now that he’s been whisked away by the Democratic establishment, his disdain for Mike Madigan becomes somewhat understandable after Madigan throws his weight around like this…it has already hurt Lisa and if this crap continues, she will engender increasing resistance to her ascension to the Mansion…the other scenario is that Dad retires prior to her run for Governor, but the damage may already have been done…besides, maybe Quinn will beat her on his own merits based on his leadership during a time of extreme economic downturn and efforts to reform Illinois government…
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:11 pm:
As far as Quinn not having time to build a record, you never know in politics what events will dictate.
He might have a fine record in Feb. 2010 that will make him unbeatable. Then again, he might not. And there’s no guarantee something wouldnt’ blow up in his face between February and September, either.
- The Doc - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:16 pm:
===Um, do you spend much time at the Statehouse? Just askin… ===
LOL. Pie in the sky, but if there’s ever been a time it could happen, maybe now?
- Cosmic Charlie - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:18 pm:
Wordslinger, I agree. If the last two months have shown us anything is that the future can not be predicted. There is no such thing these days as conventional wisdom.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:25 pm:
Here’s where I will depart company from wordslinger.
There is little doubt that taxes will be raised during this legislative session. A February primary means that this will be the only session Quinn has before facing the voters. A summer or Sept. ‘10 primary would’ve given him another session to do things with that new money, and give voters a chance to cool off.
- Cassandra - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:33 pm:
The Quinn as sacrificial lamb theory certainly is plausible, and certainly must appeal to most of the powerful Dems in Illinois, but did he take it on
willingly? Is there a reward in the offing? A union job?…oops, I guess not.
- fedup dem - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:36 pm:
Will voters want to change governors twice in less than two years? Mike Madigan ought to heed the old saying, “Be careful what you wish for…”
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:43 pm:
A Feb. Primary means the slate will be set in early August of this year!
Quinn will have to be good friends with Speaker Madigan by then. He has his work cut out for him.
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:48 pm:
Rich, can’t argue with that line of logic.
However, given the severity of what I’m sure will be named the Blagojevich Deficit, and the short time period until a February primary, I’m not certain any serious Democratic candidate will be able to convincingly pound Quinn too much on whatever solutions he and the Democratic-controlled GA will ultimately pass.
In fact, I’m sure Quinn will attempt to include all the serious potential primary challengers in the solution, and if they won’t sign on, make sure everyone knows they were MIA during the crisis.
- Ask Not for Whom the Bell Tolls - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 2:52 pm:
Niles Township and Anonymous 45 have it right. MJM is hurting Lisa. Voters’ tempers are short in uncertain economic times and they have had their fill with dynasties they believe don’t have voters’ interests at heart.
Skim the following list, which is in no particular order, and ask with which dynasty are the voters happy?
Daley, Richie M.
Daley, John
Daley, Bill
Daley, Patrick
Daley, Assorted Cousins, Nieces, and Nephews
Stroger, John
Stroger, Todd
Madigan, Michael
Madigan, Lisa
Banks, Sam
Banks, Billy
Banks, Jimmy
Jones Jr., Emil
Jone III, Emil
Lipinski, Bill
Lipinski, Dan
Jackson, Rev. Jesse
Jackson Jr., Jesse
Jackson, Yusef
Jackson, Jonathan
Mell, Dick
Mell, Patti
Blagojevich, Rod
And this is just scratching the surface.
- Ghost - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:35 pm:
I would like to see the primary moved to a spring date. What is interesting is that very few people, Quinn included, sought to move theprimary date to summer or later fall before now. It was pushed back a month for Obama, and very few spoke up demanding that such a move be temporary or changed right afterwrad.
Those supporting the move seem more interested in taking away any percieved advantage LMad might have; or granting an advantage to Quinn. neither argument in the face of years of silence is palatabe. Any Feb advantage existed in ther same form with the March primaries. To sedduenyl have concern with the date becuase people want theoretically disenfranchise a canidate, such as LMad, seems like hollow motive. Why keep silent for all the other canidates, but now decide we need change?
I beleive the date should be moved, but not because LMad father is the speaker, or to give quinn an advantage. It would be nice to move it to provide more opportunities for grass roots campaigns.
BTW I disagree with the underlying assumption the LMad is locked into doing her fathers bidding or is not independently a strong and viable leader.
- Esteban - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:35 pm:
I’m not an attorney but I think that the current
primary date could reasonably challenged in court
under the Voting Rights Act and/or the Americans
with Disabilities Act on the grounds that having
the primary during the winter months INTENTIONALLY
surpressed voter turnout.
- I'm not saying, I'm just saying - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:36 pm:
that’s laughable
truly laughable, shall we move the Iowa Caucus’s too and also the New Hampshire Primary too?
- doc - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:42 pm:
A September Primary was never feasible to begin with. I don’t know precisely what the drop dead date would be as to ballot prep and equipment maintenance (not to mention getting through ballot access challenges and election contests), but I suspect that anything after June would be a practical problem for the election authorities.
- The Doc - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:46 pm:
===BTW I disagree with the underlying assumption the LMad is locked into doing her fathers bidding or is not independently a strong and viable leader. ===
Based on what evidence? She’s performed admirably as a consumer advocate, but has dawdled and hedged when dealing with other issues that might be less popular with the public, like the campaigning issue with the staff at U of I.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:49 pm:
===like the campaigning issue with the staff at U of I.===
Actually, the Trib botched that story. I did an update on it, but I wonder if people remember it.
- Esteban - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:52 pm:
Courts have struck down various voting laws on
the grounds that they suppress turnout. Why would
the date of the election by immune from a challenge? Perhaps this objection has simply never
been raised in Iowa or New Hampshire courts.
- ConservativeVeteran - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:56 pm:
Doc, I disagree. New York has had Sept. primaries for at least the past 15 years. New York has more voters, more congressional districts, and more state legislative districts than Illinois, but I haven’t heard of any problems, in New York, concerning equipment maintenance and ballot access challenges.
- Anonymous45 - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:56 pm:
BTW an eight month primary season sounds like an interminable pain in the ear…
- Esteban - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 3:58 pm:
I believe that Florida has its primary in September
as well. The REAL beef in regard to having it that
late comes from the hacks: they worry that ill
feelings from a late primary might not heal by
the time of the general election.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:01 pm:
=== they worry that ill feelings from a late primary might not heal by the time of the general election.-===
Gee, I wonder how they could think that? lol
- There you go again - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:05 pm:
Too bad we leave the primary decision entirely up to incumbent House and Senate members. The voters would greatly welcome a primary in May, June or even September. That would also give new blood a chance to course through the General Assembly as challengers would have a better chance. But, no, let’s run the “reform” ideas by the group that has become known for “reform” (incumbents in Springfield). What a joke.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:08 pm:
Would the voters truly welcome a summertime primary? Where is this data coming from? Or are you just projecting?
- IrishPirate - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:12 pm:
It seems to be that the general consensus is that Quinn will raise taxes and that the early primary helps his opponents. While that may be true how directly does it benefit the Madigans?
Daddy supports the increase and changes and Lisa keeps her mouth shut?
If I were the new Governor I’m not sure I’d agree to anything unless my likeliest opponent supported my changes. Therein lies the trickbag for everyone involved.
It seems Alexi G is considering a Senate race. Might he be more astute in this matter than the Madigans?
I’m no fan of Governor Q Ball, he seriously harmed the political process by eliminating multi member legislative districts, but I’d take Q Ball over Lisa Madigan(D Daddy) anyday.
But then again my candidates normally lose so what do I know.
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:14 pm:
–I believe that Florida has its primary in September
as well.==
Esteban, as long as you’re out there challenging the dates of primaries on rather creative climate grounds (February has a chilling effect?), I’m sure you can get Florida’s struck down for being in the middle of Hurricane Season.
That’s no atmosphere for a primary. Change, or reap the whirlwhind!
- Esteban - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:16 pm:
Well, we had a June primary in Illinois way
back when-the first Tuesday of the month, if
I remember correctly. The Florida primary has
been in September for many years and the legislature has not moved to change so the
incumbents must not be concerned about it,
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:18 pm:
That must’ve been before my time.
- Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:29 pm:
I have worked in my last primary. No More! If you want to have a primary in February walk your own precincts.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:31 pm:
Wow. A bit exhausted, William?
- soccermom - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:43 pm:
Dear Bill,
True that. Not to mention — who wants to do primary stuff over the holidays? Please. It’s one thing to ruin Christmas for Barack. But for (your least favorite candidate’s name here)?
- Bill - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:49 pm:
LOL, yeah, this special is killing me. It would be a lot more fun in June. It is starting to feel like we have an election every couple of months. Pretty soon it will be petition time.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:55 pm:
A September primary benefits someone who already holds office or has immediate access to an organization. If you are an “outsider,” winning the primary means you have to build an organization for the general. Two months is a joke. Having the summer allows you to recruit help and prepare for the fall.
There is no perfect day for a primary, if it’s not weather, it’s the legislative session, it’s always something. With respect to the Presidential primary, one year’s advantage is another year’s disadvantage. You can game it all you want, but reality will end up biting you in the a** no matter what day you pick.
Better to pick a day and stick with it so candidates can develop a plan and the board of elections and county clerks can prepare. Moving the primary day around every two years is the worst case scenario.
- Esteban - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 4:59 pm:
A note to “Wordslinger”: the primaries in Louisiana
were re-scheduled as a result of Katrina but I
don’t know if this was the result of pressure from
the feds or not.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 6:17 pm:
Rich, not to highlight my advancing age, but I think the “first Tuesday in June” primaries ran well into the 1970s. Young AA wasn’t even out of school before he was sent out to walk the precinct.
- There you go again - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 9:34 pm:
We know that voters don’t like to vote in February (unless they’re coming out for Obama), so I’m projecting that shortening the campaign season would be very welcome to the voters and would give challengers a shot at shaking up the establishment. In addition, who can argue with going door to door in May, June or September vs. December and January?
- Quizzical - Monday, Feb 23, 09 @ 11:29 pm:
I agree with Pot Calling..
I prefer a fall primary for a few reasons, mostly the weather and that 9 months between primary and general is too darn long. However, I’m skeptical that the primary on some later day of the year would bring more inspiring results.