A peek at 2010
Monday, Mar 2, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lynn Sweet lays it out…
Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 32, opens his exploratory bid for Senator today hoping his close association with President Obama, generational appeal, record and early start locks him in as a front-runner in what today is a very undefined field.
Giannoulias, I am told, is running no matter the election scenario or the other contenders. Last week, William Daley, the former Commerce Secretary and mayoral brother, floated his name in order to head off Giannoulias securing early endorsements. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) is also mulling a run, with her chances of getting in more likely in a special election.
Though a special election is being called for by some to force embattled Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) from office, lawmakers may have second thoughts because of the cost. The regular primary and general election is in 2010 and nominating petitions are due later this year for the February primary.
Giannoulias is figuring the primary could cost $5 million and a general election at least $15 million. After a series of interviews to discuss his bid today–there is no splashy kick off–Giannoulias heads to Florida to prospect for labor support at the annual AFL-CIO Winter meeting in Miami. His initial campaign focus will be on fund-raising.
Jordan Kaplan, who directed the Obama fund-raising effort in Illinois, is assisting Giannoulias on the money front. “The goal is to get out early and start raising money,” I am told. Giannoulias’ has the wealth to self-fund a portion of his campaign. Eric Adelstein is Giannoulias’ media consultant and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner his pollsters.
* The Daily Herald looks at a possible Mark Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias matchup…
Kirk has been blasting Blagojevich for years. He could paint any Democrat as part of the Blagojevich problem.
And even better for him if the opponent is Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose family bank used to make loans to Blago insider and convicted felon Tony Rezko.
Commercial: “When convicted influence peddler Tony Rezko needed cash to do his deals, he turned to Giannoulias. Don’t turn over your Senate to him too.”
But Obama will be a huge factor in this home state election. Giannoulias and him are basketball buddies.
Kirk voted against Obama’s stimulus plan twice and all the tax cuts and construction jobs it included.
That vote my jive with suburban Republicans, but voting against Obama may not jive with voters in the popular president’s home state.
* Sen. Bill Brady is also out on the statewide circuit today…
As state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington prepared to enter the 2010 Republican race for governor, he discounted Sunday the effects of scandal on Democrats at the ballot box and instead contended a policy of tax hikes and overspending would lead to a GOP rejuvenation. […]
With a projected deficit of at least $9 billion facing the state by the end of June 2010, there is increasing talk of a tax increases. But Brady maintained the state’s true operating deficit was about half that amount and that it could be resolved by policies of tougher fiscal management, lower taxes and incentives to stimulate job growth.
I offered a long critique of that last sentence to subscribers today. You can hear all of Brady’s interview at this link.
* Related…
* ADDED: Bill Brady podcast
* Suddenly, GOP has plenty of candidates for governor
* A Line Forms to Succeed Burris, Sooner or Later
* The senator who wasn’t Obama
- Vote Quimby! - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 9:58 am:
I wish we could have state officials who actually want to do the job we elected them to do. I assume AxG is drawing his full-time treasuer’s pay while he is out campaigning….
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 9:59 am:
== Kirk voted against Obama’s stimulus plan twice and all the tax cuts and construction jobs it included. That vote my jive with suburban Republicans ===
Latest polls had Obama’s approval at what — 67% nationwide?
You can bet its a little better than that, even in the suburbs.
But before we start swooning about a Kirk-Alexi match-up, explain this to me:
How does pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-gun control Mark Kirk win a U.S. Senate Primary?
I think Peter Roskam is the clear, early favorite for the Republican nomination, assuming he runs.
- Morton - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:00 am:
Who paid for Alexi’s overseas trip?
- Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:03 am:
Morton, that was covered a couple of weeks ago. Giannoulias paid for it himself.
- Honest Abe - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:04 am:
Hats off to George Ryan, Dennis Hastert and Judy Baar Topinka for helping to drive Peter Fitzgerald into retirement. The Republican Party has never been in better shape since you purged this man of integrity from the Party of Lincoln.
- Shore - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:13 am:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19475.html
Peter Fitzgerald is alive!
As for Kirk, they’ll hang 8 years of votes with Bush on him and ask do you want a man who supported the last President or a man who supported THIS President?
- Heartless Libertarian - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:18 am:
I predict the whole senate race will be a nightmare for Republicans. And it could be for the governor’s race if Pat Quinn manages to win the primary. The best chance the GOP has is for the democrats to supremely screw this up…. Stranger things have happened….
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:18 am:
I don’t think it is wise to sell yourself on the basis of Obama’s popularity. By November 2010, the political world will be different. The Stimulus isn’t working as predicted. Obama’s uber-popularity will no longer exist and reality will have returned him to Earth. We have too many challenges ahead for Obama to navigate them all without damage. Obama will probably be “yesterday’s tomatoes” to most voters.
So Giannoulais needs to do more than sell himself as Obama’s basketball friend. I suspect he knows this. He may use Obama’s popularity to fight for the nomination, but will probably need to quickly distance himself from Obama in the General.
That said, Kirk is in a better position than Giannoulais for 2010. As the pendelum swings from the far left last year, it will be right about where Kirk lives by 2010. Will Kirk get the nomination?
Yes. The GOP wants to win. They know they need to get the best campaigner. Roskam isn’t as good as Kirk, and while he is attractive on many social issues to the GOP, they want a senate seat so they will choose Kirk.
We saw Topinka get the nod in 2006 against the frustrations of the pure right, and this will happen again next year.
- True Observer - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:20 am:
Obama has no coattails.
Seals loss to Kirk and all the other election results since November have shown it.
Obama was a one trick pony.
If the Demorats want to increase their chances of keeping the statehouse, they would be smart to schedule a special election for senator.
That way, if the Dem wins, no viable Republican is going to give up their seat to run against him/her.
And if the Republican wins, the Dems can concentrate on the gov race without the distractions of the Senate race.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:22 am:
==How does pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-gun control Mark Kirk win a U.S. Senate Primary?==
The same way Topinka did. The majority of Republicans in this state aren’t as conservative as some loudmouths on the right think they are.
- Adam Smith - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:26 am:
Conservative Veteran..
Are you accusing Kirk of committing a felony?
Rich, don’t we need a little backup for this kind of stuff?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:28 am:
Thanks. The comment is gone now. I was distracted with work and didn’t see it.
- Heartless Libertarian - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:32 am:
It seems to me that when the word “conservative” is written on this blog, it is always directed at social issues. Many would call Bill Brady the conservative in the governor race, when in actuality he is the party man. While he is a “social conservative,” party people would most likely tell you that it is HIS TURN to run for governor. That being said, looking at Topinka’s record over the years, she is pretty darn conservative when it comes to issues other than abortion and gay rights. Somehow the word “conservative” suddenly means “pro-life.” And that is just plain idiotic.
- sumo - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:32 am:
Kirk has done a much better job of distancing himself from the GOP establishment than just about anyone else in Congress. Sure, he’s got some thinking to do about how his moderate votes translate in the rest of the state, but he’s a smart, hardworking, likeable, and HONEST man. Refreshing, really.
- Adam Smith - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:33 am:
Rich,
I’m amazed you can read all this stuff as it is.
- Andy Warhol - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:33 am:
==Yellow Dog Democrat… “How does pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-gun control Mark Kirk win a U.S. Senate Primary?”==
==Shore.. “As for Kirk, they’ll hang 8 years of votes with Bush on him and ask do you want a man who supported the last President or a man who supported THIS President?”===
You could be right but these arguments are extremely funny when you put them together. First, the Republicans realize they have a unique candidate and will support Kirk completely. Second, Kirk’s moderate record speaks for itself and will be in a great position to build more support statewide.
- John Bambenek - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:36 am:
Another GOP candidate announced for Governor (actually it was yesterday so he was first to announce. Adam Andrzejewski
- Captain America - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:43 am:
Nominating Burris or Roskam in a primary would be suicidal for both parties. Roskam might be able to beat Burris, but I see no way for him to beat anyone other than Burris. I’d probably have to abstain or vote Green if it were a Roskam-Burris match-up.
Kirk would definitely be a formidable Republican Senatorial nominee with crossover appeal in the swing metropolitan Chicago suburbs against Alexi, Jan S. or whoever. I probably would vote for Kirk if he were running agsinst Burris based upon competence versus incompetence criteria. As long as Burris is not the Democratic candidate, I’ll be voting for whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee.
I’m not sure trying to tar the Democrats with Blago will be an effective strategy for Republicans, unless Todd Stroger somehow is renominated by Democrats. If Stroger is on the November 2010 ticket, then I think Republicans definetely have a chance for a strong electoral comeback. People are really fed up with Blago, the Burris situation, and Stroger.
Personally, I don’t think Burris or Stroger will emerge as the Democratic nominees for their respective positions.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:48 am:
–The Stimulus isn’t working as predicted.–
VMan has spoken. After a full, and I mean a FULL week, the economic stimulus bill is a failure. Wishful thinking — and what a thing to wish for.
On another thread, you said Paul Harvey was a Vanillman, “respectful and polite” (humble, too, I suppose). You should read some of your stuff, then look up those words in the dictionary.
As for Brady, he says “the state’s true operating deficit was about half that amount and that it could be resolved by policies of tougher fiscal management, lower taxes and incentives to stimulate job growth.”
Don’t keep us in dark, senator. Put it down on paper and let’s have a look.
- grant39 - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:49 am:
AxG will face opponents for the Senate job who are going to be well-heeled enough to fully, publicly explore he and his family’s business dealings. Bad news for him and his family. Corruption kills in this environment.
With not much else to run on other than his ability to hoop it up with Obama, AxG doesn’t offer much as a Senate candidate. No foreign policy experience — playing basketball in Greece doesn’t count, nor does hanging out in Mykonos with Durbin.
And overall, the landscape is going to look a lot less attractive for Dems this fall/next year after the public watches them continually over-reach and spend us into oblivion.
- EmptySuitParade - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:52 am:
These GOPs are truly laugh riots. First the Daily Herald piece talking about the overflow list of gov candidates — Brickhead Joe and Brady — guys who lost to or with TugBoat Annie.
Then we switch to the Senate race and see Commando/Congressman Kirk’s name in the ring…this will never happend because the commando would lose in the primary to some tinfoil helmet head and be out of work.
BTW raise you hand if you think a Wall Street banker/former Fannie Mae board member makes for bad credential in 2010….TTFN Bill Daley.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:56 am:
Having just gotten rid of one politician with narcissistic personality disorder, are we really ready for another one? 32 years old. 2 years in his only elective office. Recently talked about running for Governor, now running for Senator. Shouldn’t this guy accomplish something or impress us some way before seeking a promotion? He seems a little full of himself.
- Shore - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 10:58 am:
1. Kirk voted 80% of the time with his party for a number of years, and if you look back at the democrat attacks in 2006 they did a lot of cute stunts like taking one vote and saying xyz voted with bush 100% of the time on this issue. Media and voters bought it with a lot of now ex-gop reps.
2. Kirk’s social positions are at odds with the national gop at every level. How would he vote on a Supreme Court nominee?
3. Since it’s unlikely the GOP will take back congress next year, the next biggest embarrassment to obama would be losing his own seat in a state the GOP has won 1 senate race in 30 years. Not sure the white house will let that happen.
- John Bambenek - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:02 am:
Funny, I thought voters decided elections and not what the White House “lets happen”.
- GOB Bluth - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:15 am:
So, Alexi has gone all in on the Senate race. While a lot of Dems are cheering today, I think the DEM primary may get bloody and very ugly before it is over b/c Alexi is not without his own questions.
This isn’t going to be a pretty primary if Sen. Burris runs for a full term.
- Lakefront Liberal - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:24 am:
One thing that I am not hearing mentioned is that Alexi won his State Treasurer’s race with active opposition from Madigan and the IL Dem Party. I understand that Alexi tried to go to the slating meeting to make his case, even though he knew he would never get slated, and they wouldn’t tell him where the meeting was, and when he finally found out they wouldn’t let him in the door — even though it is a public meeting. Since his election Madigan has done pretty much everything possible to show his distain for Alexi. Clearly there is no love lost between these two, nor could Alexi be that happy with how the IL Dem Party treated him.
We know that Durbin has been working with the Dem Party County Chairs to go around Madigan for voter files, and has been building his own online base, as well as trying to be a king-maker in some congressional races.
If Alexi wins Senate, might these two decide to do something to challenge to Madigan’s control of the Democratic Party of Illinois?
- Bill - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:27 am:
Word,
Just ignore VanMan like the rest of us do.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:34 am:
– I understand that Alexi tried to go to the slating meeting to make his case, even though he knew he would never get slated, and they wouldn’t tell him where the meeting was, and when he finally found out they wouldn’t let him in the door — even though it is a public meeting.–
I haven’t been in a while, but was that last slating meeting particularly hard to find. They used to let everyone in, including the LaRouchies.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:51 am:
Any comparison between Mark Kirk and Topinka in a statewide primary is absurd.
1. Topinka OPPOSES gun control, and enjoyed the support of the Operating Engineers - Illinois State Rifle Association - ABATE.
2. Topinka had the support of the State Party. Kirk will not.
3. Topinka may have been quietly pro-choice (although i believe she supprted parental notification), but she had no real, recent voting record her opponents could point to. Kirk has a 100% pro-choice voting record in Congress and has been repeatedly endorsed by the National Abortion Rights Action League.
4. Governor IS NOT U.S. Senate in a GOP primary, not even by a long shot. Governors run the state, U.S. Senators vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court judges, and are scrutinized under a strict litmus test.
5. Topinka received only 280,000 votes out of 730,000 cast. That’s only 38%. Even if you combine her voted with moderate Ron Gidwitz, Topinka-Gidwitz got 360,000 votes to Brady-Oberweis’s 370,000 votes.
6. Topinka had no CREDIBLE conservative challenger. Brady ran a campaign that was designed to fail, and Obie is toxic.
By contrast, even Roskam’s detractors (and believe me, I’m one of them) admit he’s a tremendous campaigner and fundraiser. A RED MEAT Republican. Kirk is a salmon filet Republican. Dick Durbin and the national Democrats poured everything they could into Tammy Duckworth’s race, and in a year that Democrats did pretty darn good in Illinois, Roskam still came out on top. That OUGHT to tell you something.
P.S. I think its wrong to assume this senate race will take place in 2010. 2010 will be the rematch, but there WILL BE a special election this summer. Count on it.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 11:53 am:
=== Topinka had the support of the State Party. Kirk will not.===
Are you nuts? Mark Kirk is the state party’s special project.
- Abe Lincoln - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:04 pm:
==By contrast, even Roskam’s detractors (and believe me, I’m one of them) admit he’s a tremendous campaigner and fundraiser. A RED MEAT Republican. Kirk is a salmon filet Republican. Dick Durbin and the national Democrats poured everything they could into Tammy Duckworth’s race, and in a year that Democrats did pretty darn good in Illinois, Roskam still came out on top. That OUGHT to tell you something.===
And Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC didn’t do that for Dan Seals? I suggest you read FEC reports and election results for 2006 and 2008.
- Amy - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:21 pm:
So it’s Burris, Jan S., and Alexi so far. If that’s it, the Dems have big ethical problems. Please, some ethical smart Dem…..get into this so we can win with integrity!
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:40 pm:
After a full, and I mean a FULL week, the economic stimulus bill is a failure.
The Market continues to drop. This is a vote of “no confidence” in the White House. We were supposed to see short term gains - they are not there. The banking system continues to crash, and the Detroit auto makers are filing bankruptsy sooner than later. The multi-Trillion dollar wad was shot and polls show that Americans don’t want any more bailouts. The Stimulus had to change the tune - and it didn’t. It isn’t working.
Wishful thinking — and what a thing to wish for. Who’s wishing? The situation is desperate, the multi-Trillion dollar cure your doctor demand we all go eternally into debt for, isn’t doing the trick. But that doesn’t mean I am wishing for it not to work. It is just the facts - deal with it.
Hoping doesn’t make it so.
- Will County - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:42 pm:
Hum..let me see…Rod Blagojevich’s State Treasurer and former Mob banker versus one of the most thoughtful independent members of Congress…in an off year election after the D’s have a brutal primary. Roskam’s not going to run. He understands that real power in Congress only comes with seniority. He’s going to be there a very very long time. Look for Peter–and other leading conservatives–standing next to Kirk at the fly-around.
- Kellen - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:42 pm:
Kirk is the GOP’s best option for Senate for the same reason that Brady is NOT a good option for Gov- electability in the suburbs. Kirk has demonstrated an ability to attract and keep suburban support, particularly independents. This is what the GOP needs in order to get back to winning statewide elections.
Kirk also has another talent that Brady does not possess- he can raise boatloads of money.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 12:43 pm:
Let’s move along from that topic and get back to the topic at hand, please.
- Ghost - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 2:01 pm:
This could be an interesting race. if Bill Dailey runs does he pull some of the black vote from Burris? it seems a Burris, Dailey, Giannoulias three way divides up the cook county, colar counties, leaving the canidates highly dependent on downstate to pull a win.
I am not sure Dailey and Burris do as well donwstate as Giannoulias.
- Ela Observer - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 2:29 pm:
If Kirk’s unofficial blog — teamamerica10th.blogspot.com — is any indication, he’s holding out for a risk-free special election. I’m greatly surprised if Kirk gives up his safe seat for a Senate attempt. Even with redistricing on the horizon.
- mover631 - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 4:50 pm:
Mark Kirk is not a statewide candidate. He plays well in the Northshore area but not in Peoria. On top of that if he moves on, the GOP loses his seat to Garret. Roskam can win and his seat is not a sure loss, he has State Senators and others with name ID in line who can run and win the congressional seat.
Roskam has proven he can take a hit and give one right back. He beat a really tough candidate in his first run and didn’t even break a sweat in the last election. The Dem’s will skip another try at Kirk this time giving him a break for this time until redistricting.
Speaking of redistricting, the Governors race this time is huge for the GOP. Brady isn’t the answer he has no chance. Even Brady admits it will cost $5 or $6 million in the primary and another $10 to $15 million to win the general election that’s $15 to $20 million all together and that is impossible for Brady to do. Even if he ran without a primary challenge, he couldn’t raise $1 million let alone $15 $20. On top of bad fundraising he PO’d the base in his last run to the point none of the pro family leaders are willing to support him.
- mover631 - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 5:02 pm:
Gidwitz has spent the last 2 years working with the base. He is also the only one who can raise $6 to 10 million to start and continue to raise the $10 to 15 million the race will cost. If he announces I hear that there are conservative leaders willing to stand with him even introduce him. That would be devestating to Brady and Whitley since that would show he can bring the sides together, something nobody has been able to do.
- Ahem...The REAL Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 8:01 pm:
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I don’t think it is wise to sell yourself on the basis of Obama’s popularity. By November 2010, the political world will be different.
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And the predictable pattern of “tough love” one day, miracles the next, back to “tough love” the third day, etc. etc. will be getting old, too. Plus the new “camelot” won’t be as fascinating anymore when women find out they can’t even afford the off-the-rack stuff.
Shhhhhh. Let the spinmeisters believe.
- Ahem...The REAL Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 8:10 pm:
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It seems to me that when the word “conservative” is written on this blog, it is always directed at social issues.
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Yes, that’s true within the IL GOP because the disagreement is generally about social issues. We all agree on the fiscal aspects.
- Ahem...The REAL Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 09 @ 8:23 pm:
Yes, Gidwitz has been very busy lately; absolutely amazing record of accomplishments since his last run. And…there’s never been any doubt about his ability to raise money–with complete transparency to boot.