Not enough info, but here it is anyway
Wednesday, May 20, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Thanks to a commenter, there’s a recent poll for the Cook County Board President’s race, but there are some major caveats here. First, we don’t know who was polled, how many were polled, which firm did it, the MoE, and whether they identified the candidates’ respective party affiliation, etc…
Business consultant Steve McClure, who headed the State Commerce Department during the administration of Gov. Jim Thompson, secretly commissioned a recent poll for potential Cook County Board Presidential candidate Paul Vallas — without telling him.
The backshot: The recorded telephone poll pitted former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas/Republican and Cook County Board Commissioner Forrest Claypool/Democrat, against each other for the job. Left OFF the list of potential candidates was current Cook County Board President Todd Stroger .
The kicker: McClure told Sneed: “Paul only learned about the poll after it was completed — that’s when I told his wife to tell him about it.”
The upshot: “Vallas won with 44 percent of the vote; Claypool came in with 23 percent; and 33 percent were undecided,” said McClure. “I’m told Paul was very pleased,” McClure added.
Take this with a big grain of salt, please.
* Related…
* Stroger: ‘I Will Veto’ New Rollback of Sales Tax
* Sales Tax Causes Rift Between Daley, Stroger: At yesterday’s board meeting, Daley criticized Stroger for not doing enough to curb county spending, in particular, for not issuing a hiring freeze. Stroger disagreed with Daley over the sales tax cut and addressed him directly.
* Commissioners’ vote no ‘present’ to taxpayers : Then Collins added for the benefit of those who might disagree with her non- decision: “You want to vote me out of office? Hooray. I would just love to go home for once in my life and relax.”
* Toni Preckwinkle Tours Cook Co. Suburbs in Presidential Race
* Cook County sales tax hike stands — for now
* Todd Stroger veto and his tax survive
* Stroger has failed to lead
* Loving Stroger’s tax
* Stroger no champion of the have-nots
Not
- Higher Ed - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 10:49 am:
As of late last week, Vallas was privately saying he most likely won’t run due to money. That was before the polling info was released.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 10:54 am:
A week or two ago I said Vallas would do well head to head against Claypool because I think he is respected in the black community, would benefit from a black backlash if he knocks out Stroger and also from lots of regular dems who despise Claypool. If this poll is accurate it bears that out.
- EmptySuitParade - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:02 am:
McClure was always a little squirrelly this just proves it
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:17 am:
That unauthorized, grassroots, Vallas groundswell just continues unabated!
- Alvin - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:20 am:
The more important poll is the one done by SEIU a few weeks ago and was posted on this blog. This poll was done by a reputable polling org. According to this poll, in a three-way race Claypool would emerge victorious in the city. Keep in mind, back in 2006 Claypool lost the city 60% to 40% to John Stroger. While this is just a poll, Claypool’s city-wide performance is encouraging. Next, if you factor in the fact that Claypool won in suburban Cook County by a 60% to 40% ratio, and the fact that he is likely to take a larger share percentagewise, I think Claypool is in pretty good shape. It is clear that Vallas used a rudimentary poll to make it look like he can beat Claypool. That poll was merely a way to help facilitate Vallas’ ability to raise campaign cash, which has always been his biggest problem.
- Anonymous45 - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:23 am:
I just wish we were in the second four year term of Governor Vallas…that Chicago magazine article made me think how accurately I sized up Blago the first time I met him…
- get serious - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:40 am:
We also have no idea what kind of info they “pushed” in this poll.
Plus, everything changes when voters in Cook realize Vallas has gone traitor by putting an R by his name. Also, he’s mostly a blank slate now, but wait until the rough and tumble of a campaign.
Add to that the fact there is no Republican Party in Cook.
My guess is Vallas doesn’t get in, and I think he would be dumb to, especially as an R. It will quickly be exposed as the gimmick it is.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:42 am:
Is Forrest Claypool going to step up and actually run?
- anon64863 - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:45 am:
RRR - That is a good question. He’s been quiet lately, hasn’t he?
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:50 am:
“He’s been quiet lately, hasn’t he?”
If this is him being quiet, I hate to see him loud. He is all over the news.
- siriusly - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:54 am:
I hear Claypool is in. Vallas can do whatever he wants, but that county ain’t ready for a Republican turncoat county board president.
- scoot - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:56 am:
As of late last week, Vallas was privately saying he most likely won’t run due to money. That was before the polling info was released.
Simply not true…Vallas never said he was/wasn’t running in any interviews. But let’s be clear, he’s running.
- just sayin - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 12:13 pm:
I don’t see Vallas running. He’s moved around and had big paying contracts in Chicago, Philly and now New Orleans. He’s done well for himself and some friends he brought along, but what about the kids? Has he really fixed anything in any of those towns? Can he really tell African American parents in Chicago that he left a good school system for their children before he hightailed it out to Philly to pick up another gig?
I think Vallas wakes up and realizes the spotlight of a campaign would very likely put an end to the gravy train.
It will also be very easy for any opponent to sell the phony label when Vallas is sporting a new Republican decal.
- Fan of CapFax - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 12:17 pm:
EmptySuitParade - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 11:02 am:
McClure was always a little squirrelly this just proves it
When you criticize someone or call names, it only makes you look squirrelly.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 12:46 pm:
As much as Vallas’s turning repub might be an issue in a general election, people should not underestimate Claypool’s ability to turn off the electorate. Let’s not forget, he lost to a guy in a coma who had all sorts of bad press against him.
I think Vallas’s tough part will be getting out of the repub primary without being ripped to pieces by his new party.
In a general election Vallas will not scare the electorate like Peraica or the milk man.
- anon64863 - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 1:00 pm:
Phineas - He’s been in the news, but it doesn’t seem that he’s been gearing up for a campaign.
- ReddSuitCrew - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 1:12 pm:
Is it “squirrely” to blog on State time?
Just wondering.
- just sayin - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 1:18 pm:
The big problem for Vallas is I don’t think anyone really buys the Republican conversion thing. He’s made all sides suspicious. And to many it just looks like the latest plot to get rid of the Black Man.
The first question from the press to Vallas should be who did he vote for just six months ago for President, McCain or Obama?
Let’s see how he gets out of that corner.
- scoot - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 1:37 pm:
Please don’t try to throw a glass of cold water on the Vallas campaign…ya know he has a good shot at winning. The Dem (corrupt) party doesn’t fit him anymore, so he is w/ the GOP.
- Leroy - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 1:50 pm:
Scoot - unless Vallas runs on a platform of ending the spoils system in Cook County, your statement is laughable.
How can I be sure Vallas isn’t going to just replace Stroger hacks with his own hacks?
- Malcolm - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 2:03 pm:
The county’s 26% white, 26% black and 22% hispanic which bodes well for Stroger. Black ministers’(huge following)support, black pols support, Hispanic support, union support, and distain for Claypool equal good formula for Stroger win. The media and north side pols are turning off black and brown community with what appears to be a Carl Rove, swift boat, Willie Horton type of concerted attack on Stroger. Stroger may be over playing their hand.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 2:20 pm:
“The county’s 26% white, 26% black and 22% hispanic which bodes well for Stroger”
Where do you come up with this?
- Malcolm - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 2:42 pm:
US census. Senator and Rev James Meeks is hosting Stroger fundraiser tommorrow. President of black baptist, Rev Turner, was out yesterday to support Stroger. Write Stroger off if you want to!
- One who Knows - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 2:53 pm:
Paul’s Presidential vote might be the only affirmation of his GOP credentials. I don’t think he runs either.
- scoot - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 2:59 pm:
You know whats laughable…if these numbers showed Claypool ahead everyone would be singing a different tune..instead they are worried.
Admit it!!
- scoot - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 3:02 pm:
AND please don’t challenge Vallas’s GOP cred. If you have another Republican who stands a snowballs chance at winning the Prez race I would love to hear it.
- Anonymous45 - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 3:06 pm:
c’mon Leroy…no one has anywhere near the number of hacks that the 8th ward has…it has taken years, generations to perfect the system of entitled patronage that exists in the county system…this kind of political machinery doesnt just pop up overnight you know…
- Ghost - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 3:41 pm:
I conducted a poll a few minutes ago, no one polled knew who Vallas was; but Shawn Johnson won with 100% of the vote.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 3:58 pm:
Malcolm, the U.S. Census breaks down Cook County this way:
White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2007: 45.0%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2007: 22.8%
Black persons, percent, 2007: 26.0%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17031.html
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, May 20, 09 @ 5:03 pm:
OK - we can agree that Cook County is ripe for change? After a couple of decades of Strogers, voters in Cook are finished with them?
If Cook goes GOP and Vallas, that would be starting from scratch. There hasn’t been a GOP in Cook since folks drove around the Loop in LaSalles. You can’t just start with nothing, and a single term isn’t going to help the County, regardless of who replaces the Toddler. All a single term would accomplish is remove the names from all the doors and windows throughout Chicagoland.
Claypool is stronger than Vallas because voters know that electing the GOP would be revolutionary and probably difficult. Before they change the little letter (D) to (R), they will most likely elect Claypool to see if he could bring about constructive change under the current party system.
Vallas has a chance if voters have given up with the Democrats, and I don’t think they are there yet. Stroger is getting the blame, and he will be removed, leaving the Party structure in place for Claypool.
While voters have chosen to saddle up their votes with Democrats in Cook since 1932, there is a reason they have stayed in the Democratic camp, even though the Cook County Democrats haven’t deserved to run Cook since 1984. They have stayed with the Party through this last decade because that is what they do. I don’t see them giving up hope with it - yet.
Vallas will be attractive, and voters will be happy to consider him, but like a new car company, they are not ready to buy until they’ve seen a few GOPers in their streets first.