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Governor’s race polling analysis
Monday, Dec 14, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller [Password protection removed, bumped up for visibility and comments opened for discussion.] * The Tribune has Gov. Pat Quinn with a big, 49-23 lead over Dan Hynes…
The head-to-heads from the Trib’s toplines and crosstabs, which you can download by clicking here…  I wrote this back in late November…
So, Hynes is either regressing back to the days before he spent over $2 million on TV ads, or he hasn’t moved up since this race began. Hynes has been able to slightly lower Quinn’s numbers, but he’s stuck. Bad. Very bad. Quinn job approval among Democrats…  That’s pretty darned huge for an incumbent governor with an $11 billion deficit who’s been hit hard in TV ads by his Democratic primary opponent and one GOP opponent (McKenna). “Do you approve or disapprove of how Pat Quinn is handling state budget issues?”…  More…
The beauty of the Tribune posting their full questions and answers is that we know from the polling memo that Quinn’s 2-1 ratio on his handling of ethics reforms works is actually 42-22. Not party time, but not bad considering all the heat he’s taken on the editorial pages. As far as which candidate would be better at “eliminating” corruption in government (a goofy premise, to be sure), 34 percent said Quinn and 16 percent said Hynes. 15 percent said “none” and 29 percent didn’t know. Back to the Tribune’s narrative…
Maybe. Just 11 percent of Dems said they were less likely to support Quinn when reminded that the governor “ran twice as Lieutenant Governor and running-mate to former Governor Rod Blagojevich.” From what I’ve been told, polling for both Democratic candidates shows that a Blagojevich attack just doesn’t work well against Quinn. Also, Democrats are split on whether a tax hike is necessary, with 42 percent saying it is necessary and 47 percent saying it isn’t - even though both candidates are pushing for a tax hike…
That’s one big reason why Hynes has been slamming Quinn on taxes. At least that part of his message is working. * On to the Republicans and a big Jim Ryan lead…  The Trib says that this is a name ID race so far, and they may be right…  Notice in the head-to-heads that 37 percent of Republicans classify themselves as “very conservative.” That’s why the far right is so hopeless statewide. The Tribune results are pretty close to Adam Andrzejewski’s poll taken in mid November, except that Andrzejewski scores much lower in the Tribune poll. The Trib’s new numbers are in parentheses…
Andy McKenna has spent a fortune on TV ads in the weeks since that Andrzejewski poll was taken, but he hasn’t budged. The Trib asked: “All of the Republicans running for Governor oppose increasing state government taxes. How important is a candidate’s opposition to a state tax increase in deciding on a choice for Governor?” The answers were predictable…  Dillard and Ryan’s recent open-mindedness to a tax hike won’t help there, but just 45 percent said it was likely that the winner would keep his promise to oppose tax hikes, while 49 percent said it wasn’t likely he’d keep it. Back to the Tribune…
The race has been pretty much static since Jim Ryan declared his intentions. Dillard’s TV blitz during the Tribune’s polling period didn’t help at all. Maybe the voters will change their minds come the big (and, don’t forget, very crowded) January hoo-ha, but unless somebody’s message really catches fire, this is Ryan’s race to lose.
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- Bakersfield - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:32 am:
2 big statewide Trib polls to discuss, is this like Christmas Morning for you, Rich?
- Bakersfield - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:34 am:
I’m surprised McKenna’s unfavs are not higher- I guess that would be some good news for their camp- also that he is ahead of Dillard right now. Bad bad news for Kirk. I think you are right, Ryan’s race to lose, especially if he can at least have a January TV presence.
- Scooby - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:40 am:
What’s the explanation for the gender gap between Quinn and Hynes? Nothing really comes to mind to explain that.
- borzoi - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:41 am:
Anyone see the dust-up between Ryan and the gun lobby over his answers to gun control questions published in the paper?
Ryan said that he’d veto CCW and that he wants a AWB (semi-auto ban).
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:43 am:
===I’m surprised McKenna’s unfavs are not higher-===
His unfavs aren’t higher because this whole McKenna hatred thing is extremely inside baseball.
- E Pluribus - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:46 am:
Ryan numbers are bad news for GOP. He was a weak candidate with a terrible organziation in 2002 and to say both have gotten worse is an understatement. If the GOP hands the nomination to Ryan he will be trounced by any Dem in November.
Ryan is a good man but nowhere near up to the task. Talk to people who have seen him in the debates or on the stump and he gets very poor reviews.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:50 am:
Scoob, AA thinks that women tend to have a more finely tuned b.s. detector than us fellas, ceteris paribus, so perhaps they are less persuaded by Quinn’s rhetorical flourishes than the average voting dude. No insult intended, here, but also, most of us haven’t even really started thinking about Christmas-the primary is lightyears away in guy time.
- shore - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:51 am:
-andrewski should have run for a lower office.
-Dillard is running a 1998 campaign in 2010. Edgar last ran for office 16 years ago, that’s a long time ago when 30 seconds or 140 characters can now be a career. He doesn’t fit the enviornment this year.
-People may not like quinn, but they don’t associate him as an inside career politician. there’s a lot of burnout on folks like hynes, dillard, mckenna that have seemingly been running forever (I know quinn has too, but he doesn’t come off like it).
-The far right numbers are good for kirk. it means a lot of the formerly moderate republicans are now independents and democrats meaning it’s going to be very easy for him to eat away at alexi.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:03 am:
I’m surprised.
Very surprised, actually.
I expected the 2010 election to be about 2010 issues with 2010 candidates, but we’re seeing a replay of pre-Blagojevich politics. What an absolute bummer of a poll.
- train111 - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:06 am:
The biggest suprise:
The teabagger–Illinois Review crowd has no where near the numbers to match all of their rhetoric!! The Hughes number on the Senate side is even more pathetic.
train111
- Easy - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:09 am:
What is clear is Ryan’s high-water mark was back in october before he announced. the question will be whether he can hold on to enough of his support over the next month to win with 22%
- Bakersfield - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:11 am:
Train is right, except for his use of “Teabagger” Can we just go back to ‘wingnuts’ please?
For all of their bravado they cannot even get Hughes to 10% I can’t imagine the guys in DC who got behind Hoffman will consider lifting a finger for Hughes now.
- Cassandra - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:20 am:
Assuming that it’s Quinn vs. Ryan I wonder if they would cancel each other out on the Blago Lt. Guv vs. pal of Stu Levine stories, thus sparing us annoying campaign commercials along the line of who is less corrupt. Of course, the Blago trial
may push Quinn in the direction of negative campaigning.
The real issue, of course, is the budget, whether they are willing to cut anything (talk is cheap) and what they are going to do with our money. We should keep the focus on that, not unpleasant reminders of the stupid hiring decisions we the people have made in the recent past.
- Deep South - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:24 am:
I think the term “right wing extremists” is best.
- Scooby - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:27 am:
== most of us haven’t even really started thinking about Christmas ==
Speaking as someone who regularly starts Christmas shopping on 12/23 I understand your point completely.
- Laborguy - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:30 am:
Hynes union supporters should think long and hard before they put anymore money into the Hynes attack machine lest they really piss off the sitting Governor. Quinn is seen as a genuinely nice guy, but throwing good money after bad to attck the Gov will not be taken kindly. Bothers and Sisters, tread carefully and Merry Christmans.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:43 am:
And I thought I couldn’t stand the drama/suspense surrounding the ‘08 election cycle…I can’t wait for Feb 2nd to get here and be done.
- muon - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:50 am:
VanMan has an interesting observation. The polls do seem to give the impression that the Blago years may have put everyone to sleep. As the voters are waking up, the poll numbers just hop back to the name ID that one might have expected at the beginning of the decade.
- Irish Eyes - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:51 am:
I wonder if this poll will make Hynes more or less inclined to go with the Nuclear option. I assume he has already bought TV for the last two weeks, but maybe not. Also agree with the earlier comment that Unions are goign to rethink spending thier dough and fueling a civil war- especially if they got their own polls.
Speaking of nuclear…Andy McKenna has probably got some ad’s lined up ready to hit Jim Ryan over his Ryan’s negatives, like Stu Levine and the pension problems. Should be fun to watch!
- Loop Lady - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:51 am:
aww, whatsa matter WCW…your guy not doing so well?
The shortest post by you in awhile…Yep, 2/2 will come and go and your guy will ride off into the private sector or the Obama administration…
- Anon - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 11:56 am:
Doc Walls and Ed Scanlan with name ID at 20% or above in Downstate? That strikes me as odd. I have to wonder about any poll with those kind of numbers. Then again, I’d argue that the electorate is anything but engaged, so I wouldn’t put much stock in any early polling. Good news for the Governor obviously, but I wouldn’t sit on my hands now because voters aren’t tuned in. January is going to be a fun month on both sides. Can’t wait to sit back and watch both sides bloody each other.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:01 pm:
===Doc Walls and Ed Scanlan with name ID at 20% or above in Downstate?===
Not really. Look at the numbers of people who know enough to rate those guys. 3 & 2 Downstate. That’s far more accurate.
- Moving to Oklahoma - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:04 pm:
Jim Ryan’s numbers prove one thing. People dont know what they like, they like what they know. Quinn Smacks Ryan in a general by 20 points.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:10 pm:
I’m about as conservative as they come, but even I don’t think a 2002 “redo” with Ryan makes much sense. I’m not even that conservative.
So are Illinoisans going to completely refute the entire 2002 election or something? What is that going to accomplish?
Another way to see this poll is to consider just how good a job McKenna did in promoting the Illinois GOP in the state. Illinois voters seem to sense that there are no new GOP faces to consider as statewide officials even after a decade. Gee Andy, what did you do to that party? Was your term as GOP leader some kind of ueber-design to destroy that party so you can end up as the nominee next year?
If Quinn and Ryan win the nominations, then we are far worse off than even the most cynical of us even imagined.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:11 pm:
“I wonder if this poll will make Hynes more or less inclined to go with the Nuclear option.” Irish Eyes
If loop lady is right and hynes loses and goes private sector or with the obama administration, i think he should go nuclear. why not? he has nothing to lose, but can only help himself by going nuclear. if he does lose, he doesn’t want to go out like alan keyes, i hope.
of the two democrats i still think hynes is the better choice overall. the polls are what they are and they have been consistent showing quinn leading.
- Dnstateanon - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:15 pm:
Ryan lost 4 points but that was before he decided to support a tax increase and a gun ban, this will cost him even more of that 40/48 support with very/fairly conservatives.
McKenna did gain a few points after a heck of a lot of money being spent will the voter get tired of his face?
- Will County Woman - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:18 pm:
“Jim Ryan’s numbers prove one thing. People dont know what they like, they like what they know. Quinn Smacks Ryan in a general by 20 points.”–MTO
I wouldn’t go as far as all of that. democrats will do as well as obama’s doing.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 12:25 pm:
===democrats will do as well as obama’s doing. ===
According to Rasmussen, Obama’s approval rating is 58 percent here.
- Irish Eyes - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 1:35 pm:
@ WCW– Tell me the last time “The Nuclear Option” worked in an Illinois Democratic Primary. it doesn’t work. If Hynes is up with “nuclear” ads, the teachers union will have some explaining to do if they want to sink a couple hundred thousand in tv to back him up.
- Thee of Little Faith - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 2:00 pm:
McKenna spends 2 million in ads and does not much an inch. Dillard rolls out Edgar and does not move an inch. Brady starts to run ads and does not move an inch. Adam obtains the tea party endorsements left and right and does move an inch. Time is not on the side of any of these candidates to close such a huge gap that Jim Ryan has created by entering the race. With the national democratic disaster, Blago on trail next year, Hynes lack of campaign gusto and Quinn’s throw something out and see if it sticks and usually does not style, Jim Ryan has never been more positioned for success.
- Little Lebowski Urban Achiever - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 5:05 pm:
Women tend to decide later than men. The thing to take away from the poll is how well Quinn does w/ men. It looks like they really connect with him. For all the hemming and hawing here about the Spa ad, it might of really hit Dan hard.
Scanlan and Walls name ID is likely high only b/c people have a natural adversion to admitting they don’t know something.
WCW, the reason for Hynes not to go nuclear is his legacy. If he can’t possibly win (as these numbers show he can’t)… and spends $2 million in negative ads that hurt Quinn…and then Quinn goes on to lose in nail biter… he will be blamed by many Democrats as the reason for Quinn’s loss. Why burn bridges when you can’t win? Hynes’ next ad will be telling.
Quinn is actually a very good candidate. Relates well to people. Speaks with sincerity. Works his ass off. And has enough good people around him to remind him what it takes to win.
Finally, I think Ryan will have the same problem Hynes seems to have. The ability to communicate to voters why he wants the job. Both Hynes and Ryan seem to be running “just cause”.
- Bill - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 6:12 pm:
==Relates well to people. Speaks with sincerity.==
Since when? Quinn has done nothing but lie, obfuscate, flip flop, and bloviate here in the Land of Lincoln since the day he accidently became governor. Hynes is not concerned about his legacy he, like most of us, is concerned about our state. Even if Quinn had a plan he is not competent enough to implement it. Look at his record of incompetence since January. Are we happier today, Pat? I don’t think so!I hope Hynes does go negative big time. There is certainly enough material.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 6:48 pm:
LLUA,
the score is 14 (Quinn) to 7 (Hynes), and this game determines who advances to the playoffs…
hail mary or nuclear or whatever expression floats your boat…
the game clock is running down and you have no time outs—just do it!
- Will County Woman - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 6:50 pm:
sorry wrong score… it’s 14 (Quinn) to 8 (Hynes)
- Nortsider - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 7:22 pm:
Adams numbers are the same w/ margin of error. funny this is what happened in the last primary the tribune always lowballs the conservative, salvi, Fitz, Oby even Stevenson. The Trib is a RINO paperwho will scew the results to fit their needs and then make their poll the news.
This shows that nobody is paying attention and you also have to wonder who let some campaigns in on the polling dates?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 8:13 pm:
Nortsider, you do realize that u sound just like a right wing Todd Stroger, right? Yep, the Trib is deliberately skewing results against Todd and conservative Repubs. Right. It’s all a nefarious plot. Pass the tea.
- Nortsider - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 10:58 pm:
Talk to Peter Fitzgerald he would openly tell you about a couple of the Trib and Sun-times columnists that would show that it is not a tin-foil hat. The last poll in 06 primary proved it to me.
- T.J. - Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 3:04 am:
Is anyone here planning to vote for Jim Ryan in the primary? I know people for almost every other candidate and wonder where these Jim Ryan people are hiding out.
- Smack Down Mc. - Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 6:47 am:
Ryan is a paper tiger. Time to shred him. Andy is just the man and has the money to do it
- Good Government Guy - Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 11:44 am:
I’m laughing at all of these guys in both parties. Let’s face it, none of them are very likeable, all of them have huge egos and none of them have principles that stand the test of time.
Proft and Adam have huge egos and miscalculated the strategy of running for the biggest seat in the state. Proft may be running for a media position but Adam isn’t and he made terrible mistake jumping into this race. They may not be able to win if they spent millions on name id.
Schillerstrom jumped out quickly to run when it looked like it would be him against Brady and the lesser candidates. Bobby gave up his cushy post in DuPage where he had a pretty good fiscal record. But his DuPage buddy, Kirk Dillard decided to jump in after Schillerstrom lined up the DuPage support (whatever that amounts to). It turns out that Schillerstrom and Dillard may have miscalculated the race. Edgar was a good Governor but do endorsements really matter to voters? As for Schillerstrom, he’s not really known outside of DuPage and he’s a social liberal on some issues. Murphy jumped out of the race and joined McKenna because he understood that you need money for the race and he didn’t have two nickels to rub together. Brady probably jumped for joy as he saw a race against DuPage and McKenna matching up against him as the one downstater. But then our old frined Jim “I’m not George” Ryan jumped into the race and immediately knocked Schillerstrom off the board and weakened Dillard. At the same time, he took a chunk of downstate voters from Brady. Or course, Ryan is apparently forgetting that almost 20 percent of the voters in his last race thought he was George Ryan.
Are there any more knives that can be stuck in each candidate’s back?
I guess I’m laughing because none of the Republican candidates is very good and Quinn and Hynes are even worse. Unfortunately, with all the egos, the race may end up being Quinn v. Ryan. Name recognition sure seems to matter in these races.
What a choice!
- Jerry Vachaparambil - Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 11:31 pm:
I have known Adam and seen his transformation during the last couple months. I can assure you that his drive to win consists of more than just a desire to stroke his ego.
He’s got a real impression and anyone who has talked to him can echo my impression that he has studied Illinois Government and figured out how to make an impact.
This guy’s the real deal
- Jerry Vachaparambil - Tuesday, Dec 15, 09 @ 11:34 pm:
I meant- *he’s got a real impressive platform