* Gov. Pat Quinn will talk about an ethics initiative during today’s State of the State address…

Quinn is pushing for a constitutional amendment that would allow citizens to propose ethical reforms and put them to binding referendum measures on the ballot. First the Illinois House and Senate would have to authorize a November referendum that would allow citizens to propose reforms in future years.

I’m pretty sure he’s mentioned this before, so it isn’t quite new, but it’s also assuredly DOA. Quinn explains…

“It should give the people at the local level, county, city, municipal and state, the power by petition and binding referendum to enact ethics standards and campaign finance standards that the people feel are appropriate,” Quinn said. “I think this is one area where an initiative is vitally needed.”

Expected…

Quinn’s staff says the governor will touch on several major themes, from sparking the economy and strengthening state government ethics to supporting veterans and preparing the state for the next decade.

* The speech comes at an awkward, but opportune moment for the governor…

But the speech comes at an unfortunate time for Quinn, who is in the midst of an election fight with primary challenger Dan Hynes. Quinn needs to ask lawmakers to raise taxes in order to help close the budget gap, but raising taxes is not a popular campaign strategy.

Quinn also has to decide whether to address the controversy over the early release of prisoners.

On the other hand, the speech gives him a chance to address the public less than three weeks before the primary election and a platform to discuss his successes, such as a campaign finance reform law and a public works program that he says will lead to perhaps thousands of jobs.

* House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie sends a message…

Currie thinks the governor should blame the state’s dire financial situation on the global recession rather than over-spending on the part of lawmakers.

Quinn has adopted Rod Blagojevich’s habit of blaming the General Assembly for his own problems, so we’ll see what happens today.

* A look beyond the address…

Q: What happens after the speech?

A: Lawmakers are at work this week, but then leave town until after the Feb. 2 primary. Quinn will offer his comments today, after which Hynes, other governor candidates and lawmakers will give their two cents on where he went right and wrong.

Look for Hynes to pounce if Quinn makes any slipups in the State of the State speech. Hynes’ campaign theme has been about how disappointing Quinn has been since taking over as governor last January, and he’ll try to emphasize any areas that show possible Quinn weakness.

We’re going to try and post videos on the blog as the day progresses, so keep checking back.

* What some want to hear…

[Democratic state Sen. John Sullivan] said he expects Quinn to reveal some dire statistics concerning the budget that will likely “shock some people.”

[Republican state Sen. Larry Bomke] said anything less than a detailed plan of attack would be a waste of time.

“(Quinn) needs to reiterate what he thinks the best way to resolve this crisis is,” Bomke said. “If it’s a tax increase, if it’s cuts, where those cuts can be made or if he will sell the lottery or state property. For the governor to give the State of the State without addressing that issue and how we will address the issue would be pretty meaningless.”

Bomke could be disappointed, though. Democratic leaders are looking to push back Quinn’s budget address to later in March, giving him the opportunity to delve into budget pain after his race for the Democratic nomination against Comptroller Dan Hynes.

* Quinn is expected to ask that the budget address be delayed, which at least one newspaper doesn’t love…

Allowing Quinn to move his budget address back a month will only serve to make the process more political and more time-constrained. Legislators facing election challenges in November will not want to spend the summer in Springfield.

Any delays increase the likelihood the state will once again arrive at a budget in name only.

They’ll put everything off until the last minute no matter when the budget address is, so it doesn’t really bother me much. Plus, the later in the session the budget unveiling is, the clearer the future can look.

* Speaking of the budget, Melissa Harris takes a look at some of the outside players…

On Tuesday, about 200 [Civic Committee of The Commercial Club of Chicago] members met privately at the Chicago Club to discuss the coming session. (In attendance, Abbott Labs CEO Miles White, Merchandise Mart Properties President Christopher Kennedy, CBOE Chairman Bill Brodsky and Allstate CEO Thomas Wilson.)

Afterward, Martin said the committee would start engaging outside groups — including the public — on the budget crisis, particularly pension reform. […]

Howard Peters Title: Senior vice president, Illinois Hospital Association

Peters expects to spend the session fighting efforts to require the state’s Medicaid recipients to receive health coverage through HMOs, which some believe would save the state money. A pilot program passed the Illinois Senate in 2007. But Peters said, “The state has had a miserable experience with HMOs not providing services.”

Go read the whole thing.

More…

Most groups agree that the driving force in the speech will the budget problems, with a likely reference to canceling the secret early-release prison program that put dozens of violent offenders out on the street within weeks of being incarcerated.

Expecting lots of talk about money is Kathy Ryg, a former state lawmaker, who is now the president of Voices for Illinois Children. She says the state desperately must change its funding structure, although she didn’t use the phrase “income tax increase.”

She does say that the state’s ailing budget picture won’t start to get better until lawmakers infuse it with more money. But she also wants reform that would keep low-income folks from shelling out more in taxes.

Another suggestion comes from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce, which is lobbying for a re-write of the Telecommunication Act, which is set to expire in a year. Chamber Vice President of government affairs Todd Maisch says reducing regulation would encourage jobs in a market that’s ripe.

* Quinn loves to talk about the capital bill. He was in Pekin yesterday cutting the ribbon on a local project. The Illiana Expressway is supposedly one of his “legacy” projects, so we can probably expect some talk about that as well.

You can find live video and audio at the GA’s website and at numerous other TV and radio stations in case that feed goes down.