* The Tribune editorial page has once again whacked both Gov. Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes for not bowing to the company line…
Three weeks ago, we declined to make an endorsement in the Democratic primary for governor. It wasn’t a decision — or non-decision — we took lightly. Voters are fed up and fired up, eager to elect a leader who can put an end to this era of scandal and fiscal recklessness. “None of the above” was an enormously unsatisfying recommendation.
But the closer we get to Election Day, the better we feel about that decision. We’ve continued to look for a good reason to get behind either of the candidates, but we’re still coming up empty.
They don’t like Quinn’s tax hikes, and they don’t like Hynes’ refusal to force the unions to give back on pensions…
So why not back Hynes? Because we’re still waiting for him to offer an honest prescription to treat the state’s ills. He promises fiscal responsibility, but won’t acknowledge what it will take to rescue this state from its most desperate problem: a pension system with an $80 billion-and-counting unfunded obligation.
This is the same newspaper which has endorsed Andy McKenna, a guy who solemnly pledges never to raise any taxes while rhetorically firebombing anyone who might have a semi-reasonable opinion on that matter. This is also the same editorial board that regularly praises the Civic Federation, but has ignored its latest report that Illinois is facing at least a $12.8 billion deficit next fiscal year.
What did the Tribune write in its McKenna endorsement? Pablum…
If he’s nominated Feb. 2, McKenna wouldn’t strike Illinois voters over the next nine months as a man running for people-pleaser-in-chief.
You gotta be kidding me.
McKenna is spending millions of dollars on blatantly pandering ads. It’s super easy to run a “no new taxes, no way” campaign, until you’re effectively called out on it - or elected. Heck, Jim Thompson got away with that at least twice. He got the Trib nod, too.
How will Andy McKenna solve this pension crisis? From the Tribune’s questionnaire…
First, we must level with people about the size of the state’s unfunded pension liabilities. For years, politicians have been misleading voters by expanding benefits without a funding plan to support those commitments. Now, we are stuck with the bill and no credible plan to pay it.
Second, we need to implement a two-tiered system for existing beneficiaries and new entrants into the system. The second tier could be a defined contribution plan or a hybrid defined contribution/defined benefit plan, or a defined benefit plan with benefit levels more in line with the private sector.
Third, government pension should look more like private sector plans. We have an opportunity for public employee unions to meet taxpayers half-way, so we can balance the interests of both parties in finding a reasonable solution to the pension crisis.
A two-tiered pension system will save money, but the state’s pension debt is so huge that this idea will barely make a dent in the coming years. How will he solve that far more immediate need of paying for the pensions already promised - a multi billion-dollar debacle that will last decades? We don’t know and the Tribune’s sages apparently don’t care.
Of course, we’ve not yet seen Mother Tribune weigh in on the new allegations in the McKenna polling situation. But, hey, the board just doesn’t seem to be interested in logic and facts. It’s all about the rhetoric and their guy.
Sheesh, I’m so tired of them.
* McKenna isn’t the only one, of course…
Republican Bill Brady is promising to balance the state budget in his first year in office if he’s elected Illinois governor.
The state senator from Bloomington made the pledge during a debate Tuesday night at Chicago’s WTTW-TV against four other Republican challengers.
A sixth candidate, former Illinois Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna, didn’t participate because his campaign said he had a scheduling conflict.
Brady says he can fix the state’s finances by starting with a 10 percent across-the-board spending cut.
A ten percent spending cut would give you far less than $3 billion in savings. Just $10 billion to go. No biggie.
Look, the Democratic proposals also fall short and also need far more meat on the bones. No doubt about it. Period. But at least they’re being realistic about finding revenues to help get this state out of its massive fiscal hole. Stuff like Brady’s promise is just plain goofy. He’s a candidate, however. That’s expected. The state’s largest newspaper, on the other hand, has a sacred duty to be honest with its own readers and not just spew hyper-partisan talking points.
* Related…
* GOP candidates for gov. argue over budget cuts
* Republican governor candidates spend hour belittling each other at debate
* Governor race: Republicans pick up sniping where Democrats leave off
* GOP governor candidates tear into each other
* Republican gubernatorial hopeful makes Quincy campaign stop, claims downstate mantle
* Internal GOP report expands on McKenna admonishment
- Stuck with Sen. CPA - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:56 am:
Preach it, Rich. McKenna’s ads are Big Lie irresponsible, and it’s a shame that next to no one is holding his feet to the fire.
Speaking of, I wish Ponce had held the GOP candidates feet to the fire on this issue a lot longer last night.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 10:59 am:
Thank you for pointing out just how bad the Tribune has gotten during this primary.
Your analysis is simple and direct. That paper’s editorial board isn’t doing it’s job.
It seems that the Tribune board has determined how it will write each party’s primary with different sets of criteria. That shouldn’t be done.
You are right. The Tribune is dead wrong.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:04 am:
Face it….Trib in tank for OutsiderAndy cause Daddy was on the board…..owns a paper company …hmmm….newspapers…paper…..newspaper…paper company….Bueller….Bueller.
- independent - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:06 am:
is there a connection somewhere with the mckenna family and the tribune board?
something is really amiss here. rich is right. something smells…
- Publius - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:07 am:
Rich, you’re right that the Trib. is out-of-touch, preachy, and increasingly irrelevant, especially the Ed. Bd. That being said, they have a right to their own opinion, just as you do — as you expressed in this post.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:08 am:
I would never take away their right to an opinion. I do, however, reserve the right to ridicule that opinion.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:08 am:
The Tribune board needs to pull its McKenna endorsement–today. The endorsement was surprising and the logic behind it was questionable to begin with, but continuing to endorse McKenna after all that has transpired is irresponsible editorial journalism.
- Publius - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:08 am:
Of course! And they frequently deserve ridicule.
- RJW - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:09 am:
Rich:
McKenna’s comments on the pensions say he wants a two-tiered system for EXISTING and new beneficiaries. Did I read that right? If so I guess he hasn’t read the State Constitution. Do you think anybody will ask him how he plans to change the pension system for everyone?
- shore - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:10 am:
The Tribunes credibility went out the door when it backed people like barack obama, melissa bean and foster for federal office. You can’t claim to want fiscal responsiblity and then back people that work for the spending in dc.
I thought brady was awful last night. He and Dillard looked as bad as mckenna is sounding right now. The silence when adam asked brady what he had to show for 19 years in springfield was deafening.
phil ponce did a very good job.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:11 am:
The next thing you are going to hear is that the Tribune is getting tingling sensations about McKenna. Sheesh - don’t they get how loopy they appear to thinking Illinois citizens (read: readers of capfaxblog)?
Recently, they had on their editorial page an ad for some health cure nostrum or get rich quick scheme of some sort. Pathetic. Pretty soon the ChiTrib ain’t gonna look much different than a local shopping circular. All ads and an occasional recipe for fruit cake.
- Bill - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:12 am:
Maybeb Quinn can get Zell to fire the editorial board in exchange for some help with Wrigley Field. Oh wait, never mind!
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:13 am:
–Pretty soon the ChiTrib ain’t gonna look much different than a local shopping circular. All ads…–
They wish, all ads.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:18 am:
Word,
Perhaps I should have used the singular.LOL
- Jackson - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:20 am:
Any candidate who really believes cuts alone will fix our mess aren’t mentally prepared to be Governor. It’s that simple. Watching McKenna pander to the portion of the GOP he ignored as chairman is pretty fun too.
- Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:23 am:
Everyone seems to forget that we have a specific plan to pay for the pensions. The problem is following it.
The 50-year plan was approved by Republicans. This isn’t something that’s going to be fixed overnight, or even over a decade.
The problem is making the payments required under that plan.
- Bill - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:27 am:
Michelle is right and the problems were caused not by “overly generous benefits” but by the state continually using those funds as their personal piggy bank. Republican icon, his holinesss Jim Edgar, was a strong proponent of the pension holiday.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:28 am:
Let’s hear how McKenna will cut a $13 billion dollar deficit without raising taxes…yeah right…
- DemVoter - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:28 am:
There is no question the Tribune is all hoooy over Andy… But for them to NOT take a stand on either of the Dem candidates is like them bashing hynes for “we’re still waiting for him to offer an honest prescription to treat the state’s ills”… Geesh, talk about free press.
Hey Rich??… maybe its time to start a Trib bumper sticker thread??…
- Anon-Number7 - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:31 am:
=== The silence when adam asked brady what he had to show for 19 years in springfield was deafening. ===
Shore - you need to clean the wax out of your ears. Brady responded to Adam’s question with 3 items (although Adam kept interupting him). You can challenge his claims if you want, but it wasn’t silence.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:34 am:
Thanks, Ms Flaherty, for reminding us. I only hope someone who is reasonable and determined is elected who will bring about the needed sanity in this mess. As a future receipient of an Illinois pension of course I want it to be solvent but as a citizen/resident I also want there to be a solvent state. The 2 are not mutually exclusive. The state for too long has used the pension fund as the convenient piggy bank. Bad news for everybody.
- Lakefront Liberal - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:39 am:
I too can’t take it anymore. Every single voter in this state needs to hear the very simple math:
$13 billion deficit
divided by
$28 billion total discretionry budget
=
46% cuts
=
complete collapse of state institutions
A friend of mine works for the University of Illinois and her department had an emergency meeting part of which included finding out that they have no money to buy paper to print student transcripts on. The divorce from reality is astounding.
- Reality Check - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:42 am:
Even the arch right wingers at the Illinois Policy Institute last week admitted the obvious, that the pension debt is caused by the state’s failure to pay (with an assist from poor stock market performance). There is zero justification to cut benefits.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:42 am:
McKenna’s father served on the Trib board, no? Thus, isn’t their endorsement rather tainted? Conflicts of interest for $100, Alex!
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:46 am:
I relented and watched the dems forum from the other night, in part based on what the Trib wrote.
just curious… when asked by Marin if the $31billion was in to fund the capital bill, Quinn indicated yes, the funding is there.
Really? when did that happen and where did the money come from. As i understand very few, if any, muni’s have said ok to video gaming.
- Dem in Denim - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:55 am:
This footnote should be a mandated attachment to every gubernatorial candidate’s “comprehensive plan” for solving the State’s budget deficit (especially for the “no new taxes” pledges):
Since this candidate’s plan is almost certainly pure fiction, voters should please note HJRCA 31. The constitutional amendment provides a way for the voters to recall the governor by petition and for the election of a successor governor. HJRCA 31 must be approved by the voters in the 2010 general election. Should it pass, please feel free to use it ASAP when the candidate has been proven “absolutely full of it.”
- Captain Flume - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:08 pm:
Do media endorsements really mean that much anymore? That is not a rhetorical question, because I really don’t the answer. My guess is that these endorsements are not that meaningful to the electorate. Maybe they are, but I am too close to the woods to see the trees here. If the endorsements are meaningless in swaying public perception, it seems a waste of time and emotion to get very upset by them. The quality of journalism is evaporating steadily, or maybe it already has sizzzled away. Maybe it was Hunter Thompson’s fault, or Norman Mailer’s, or William Buckley’s, or Rupert Murdoch’s. I don’t know. It’s hard to find a journalistic opinion that I get excited about other than to lament the demise of the discourse.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
The Tribune editorial board is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own set of facts.
They are also not entitled to use one set of facts for one candidate/party and another set of facts for a different candidate/party.
And they have an obligation to taxpayers — remembering they enjoy all sorts of tax breaks as a newspaper — to be independent.
“Our Republic and its press will rise or fall together. An able, disinterested, public-spirited press, with trained intelligence to know the right and courage to do it, can preserve that public virtue without which popular government is a sham and a mockery. A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself. The power to mould the future of the Republic will be in the hands of the journalists of future generations.”
- Joseph Pulitzer
The Chicago Tribune takes great pride in its many Pulitzers over the years…they should reflect on the ideals behind the trophy.
In my opinion, and the opinion of many, the Tribune editorial board has become a cynical, demogogic mercenary for the Republican Party.
- Reformer - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:12 pm:
It’s a disgrace that the state’s newspaper editors are letting gubernatorial candidates get away with bogus plans to address the financial meltdown. Rich Miller stands out by comparison.
Dem in denim: Don’t get your hopes up about the weak recall amendment. It will probably never be used since it would require legislators from both parties to sign on. Remember that no Republicans were prepared to impeach George Ryan even in his final days.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
–In my opinion, and the opinion of many, the Tribune editorial board has become a cynical, demogogic mercenary for the Republican Party.–
That’s kind of always been their history, with a couple of exceptions.
- Peggy SO-IL - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
Interesting info about McKenna’s Trib connections and Trib’s failure to choose between Quinn and Hynes. Are Trib editors worried about choosing the loser and subsequent consequences?
Doesn’t IL have a constitutional obligation to “balance the budget” as do most states, from what I understand?
The state could increase fees and make people pay the cost of the services they receive from the State, ie, for transcripts at a state uni, as one reader posted about above. (See “Superfairness” by Wm. Baumol) The current 3% is pretty nice and low. It would be good for economic development to keep it as such. What about corp tax rates? I wouldn’t want to raise them either in this bad economic environment. Entitlements must be cut as should fluff unnecessary government activities. Where is the legislature in all this?
- DemVoter - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:19 pm:
FYI…McKenna’s father, businessman Andrew McKenna Sr., was on the Trib Board years ago.
- f.t. - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:21 pm:
Keep up the Trib Ed Board bashing, Rich!
Their arrogance and hypocracy are so overwhelming I often find myself reflexively supporting the opposite of whatever point of view they express.
It’s almost enough to make me vote for Stroger (notice I said “almost.”)
And as I read your post I see on the Crain’s update box that a bankruptcy judge just approved $45 million in bonuses to Trib executives! Un-freakin-believable!!!!
- Bill - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:25 pm:
==Maybe it was Hunter Thompson’s fault, or Norman Mailer’s, or William Buckley’s, or Rupert Murdoch’s.==
For me it was Rich Miller’s fault. He provides honest, insightful and crucial, timely information without ever having to leave your home or office. For a mere dollar a day(well, maybe more because of his numerous mental haelth days)all we need to know is provided daily including a link the White Sox blog. In addition, we are treated to his stable of hilarious satirists here on the CFB. Why bother with the Scabune and SlumTimes anymore?
Ahead of our times, indeed!
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:28 pm:
Peggy SO IL,
If the Tribune didn’t like Hynes or Quinn, I can respect it witholding an endorsement. I cannot respect, however, the papers that have expressed several paragraphs worth of misgivings about Quinn, basically recounting all of his failures as governor, and then offer up two little measley sentences about how he has been a reformer for 30 years and seems honest, and that his heart is in the right place; he means well, hope he can improve and then decides to endorse him.
- BIG R.PH. - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:31 pm:
Don’t tell me that I am going to get less to fill prescriptions. They have already cut the fee twice in the last year and still aren’t paying.
As for Joseph Pulitzer–The once proud St. Louis Post Dispatch has been gutted and humiliated. It is now the Post-DePamphlet. Todays edition 16 pages Smaller than the Belleville News Democrat.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:32 pm:
I remember when the Trib endorsed Edgar over Dawn Clark Netsch.
The reasoning was that even though DCN was right on the issues, Edgar possessed leadership. It sorta seemed like leadership=male sexual anatomy
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:37 pm:
The Trib is not alone in letting pretty much every candidate off the hook on the budget issue.
The “No tax” pledge is pure fiction. Picture a debate where each candidate is given an electronic copy of the budget and asked to cross off or reduce line items (or increase taxes) until the budget is in balance. The results are displayed on a screen behind each candidate. They cannot leave the stage until the budget is balanced.
That would be worth watching.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:40 pm:
The problem, Pot, is no candidate would ever agree to that debate. You’d have to spring it on ‘em. lol
- budget boy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:42 pm:
Rich, The actual year to year gap is closer to $5.0 billion. Andy’s proposal is to get the spending in line with revenues. The cuts to accomplish that will be tough, but they can be done. It does involve cutting medicaid eligibity, education, social services, increasing contributions from state employees and layoffs. The unions will need to make concessions (even beyond their constitutionally protected rights) or they can watch there unfunded liabilities continue to grow until the state actually does default on bond payments. From there you freeze spending and start to pay down the back log of bills. Also, you can employ a mix of short term and long term borrowing. Also, there is a very real chance that the federal government will do another round of stimulus funding to help with the year to year budget gap. So yes it can be accomplished without a tax increase — most taxpayers believe it’s possible or, at the very least, want a governor who is committed to giving it his best try. That’s the trib position and it’s reasonable position to have. To say that they ignore facts and logic because they come to a different conclusion than you sounds pretty whiny.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
I like the feistier Chicago Tribune. I dislike having the ability to read it in only 5 minutes.
When Brown won the Senate race for Kennedy’s old seat, the Tribune thought the story was so important they put in on page 14.
Feisty has its limitations.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:53 pm:
“Tonight’s debate will be a pop quiz! Everyone put away your books and notes and we can begin…” LOL
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:55 pm:
I’d pay to see that. I’d pay a lot.
- Padraig - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:58 pm:
Quinn has been governor for 1 year during the biggest economic crisis since the depression. Hynes was made Comptroller by his father 12 years ago and has not made 1 significant contribution to this State and no prior work experience. What gives with these polls?
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 12:58 pm:
I agree that unfair, biased and slanted reporting really can be annoying when dealing with specific election races. It’s almost like they are on the side of a certain politician but not admitting it. It is inappropriate for them to manipulate opinion under the disguise of legitimate journalism.
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:02 pm:
Peggy: there already is a $5 per copy fee to order transcripts from UIS. In fact I just paid that today to order a transcript. I don’t know what the other campuses charge, but if $5 a copy ain’t enough to cover those costs, they ARE in big trouble.
- budget boy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:07 pm:
Phinneas, You have just described the slanted reporting of every reporter who supports a tax increase.
- amomynous - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
Budget Boy - Several sources independent of each other have reached the conclusion that the real budget hole for fy2011 is nearly 13 billion dollars - NOT as small as 5 bil. As earlier postings note, you simply cannot slash that amt of $$ - nearly half your entire Gen Funds operating budget - without hobbling if not dismantling entire state agencies. And by “state agencies” I refer to such terrible, governmentese stuff as preK-12 public education, mental health programs, etc.
It’s outrageous for anyone to insist that continuing to rely primarily budget cuts is going to solve this mess. We’re going to see more cuts, all right - but they’ve got to be minimized with a dose of new revenues.
- amomynous - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:21 pm:
PS to BB: Short-term borrowing has run its course, adding hundreds of millions of dollars to next year’s bills and several years following. We can’t keep piling this debt on our state, our kids, our grandkids, THEIR grandkids, etc!
- Analyze This - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:34 pm:
=If there’s not some good economic news this summer and fall, that will only get worse — and Dems are in a lot of trouble.=
Word has this exactly correct.
Which is why Republicans can expect to fare better than their Democratic counterparts come November. Two specific reasons appear to affirm this view:
1. As the economist Gene Kimmet observed more than 30 years ago, if the federal government institutes “Policy X” today, it takes a minimum of 14-18 months for that policy to work itself through the national economy and begin producing sustained positive effects. This lag time represents the interval generally required by the marketplace to (a) be certain that “Policy X” is a sustained policy as opposed to one quickly discarded by an administration; (b) plan and institute economic investment based upon that policy; and (c) for those economic investments begin to show a return.
2. Businesses - be they large or small - abhor uncertainty. It precludes accurate forecasting by business owners to decide whether to (a) hire more workers, (b) increase inventories, and (c) purchase capital equipment.
In regards to the first point, irrespective of whether one is Democratic or Republican in one’s view, it is accurate to say that over the past 13 months, the administration has neither articulated nor adopted a clear, concise and consistent economic policy.
Instead, the administration has advocated for “economic stimulus” in the form of increased government spending - less than half of which has been expended to date - and much of which has been earmarked for projects that reach(ed) narrow segments of the economy (e.g., construction).
Moreover, monies expended on federal programs, such as the $787 billion stimulus package, comprise a “capital displacement” insofar as that capital has been removed (through taxation) from consumers (i.e., businesses and individuals) who would have deployed that capital for alternate purposes.
So, too, the billions allocated to the American auto industry, banking industry, and AIG.
This reallocation of capital on a (largely) ad hoc basis does not constitute a consistent economic policy. It instead reflects a series of economic Band-Aids, many of which have shown indications that they will have positive long-term effects (e.g., Cash-for-Clunkers; mortgage re-writes; etc.).
Similarly, whether one is for or against national healthcare, the proposal that now appears doomed in the Senate by Scott Brown’s election carried what most individuals believed to be largely unknown costs.
The uncertainty associated with this wide-sweeping proposal further precluded accurate forecasting by business owners, each of whom asks him or herself, “If I hire an additional employee today, what will the cost be for me to retain that employee tomorrow?” The debate over national healthcare - regardless whether national healthcare is perceived as a desirable end or not - made that answer unknowable and further delayed economic investment by businesses.
When faced with profound uncertainty — whether caused by rapidly expanding federal expenditures for “economic stimulus,” the TARP bailout, national healthcare, military expenditures, or the increasing cost of servicing the national debt — few rational business owners will plan for expansion.
Their need to plan is now further handicapped by growing fears over inflation resulting from high government spending and the still-expanding money supply.
Furthermore, the proposals the president is expected to be announced tonight include a “jobs-creation program” that is likely to require billions of dollars of additional federal spending, while the “austerity program” affects just 17% of the current federal budget. Indeed, the result is likely to be just further economic uncertainty.
While the president remains personally popular, the economic choices made by his administration this past year have not been well received. Business owners have not felt reassured about the future and their future costs. This is reflected in the fact that while a very few manufacturers have added jobs, the net monthly loss of jobs in the economy continues. While the rate of job losses has slowed, it has yet to reverse.
Continuing job losses, the absence of the aforementioned “concise economic policy clearly articulated and adopted” by the administration, and continuing uncertainty among business owners means that a sustained, broad-based recovery in the U.S. economy is not yet in sight.
As Wordslinger notes, that doesn’t bode well for Democratic candidates this fall.
- budget boy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:37 pm:
anon, Those reports all disclose the fact the $13.0 billion deficit includes prior year rollovers. We will continue to roll some of the unpaid bills, but with $5.0 billion in cuts we can at least start to pay down the larger deficit amount. And, we can (and will) continue to rely on with the short term borrowing as long as the trend is downward. It’s really not that outrageous.
- Analyze This - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:40 pm:
Correction in BOLD: This reallocation of capital on a (largely) ad hoc basis does not constitute a consistent economic policy. It instead reflects a series of economic Band-Aids, many of which have shown indications that they will not have positive long-term effects (e.g., Cash-for-Clunkers; mortgage re-writes; etc.).
- Anon - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 1:41 pm:
==Maybe it was Hunter Thompson’s fault==
You mean, because he killed himself and left the field to the amateurs?
- Greg B. - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 2:29 pm:
The budget hole was caused by multi-year problems and will require multi-year solutions. Reform state spending on the education and health care. Use savings to pay pensions.
The only way to force reform on the GA and Gov. is to stand on the money hose. Cut them off from revenue and they’ll be forced to spend more wisely and make choices they heretofore refuse to make.
If you do the right things such as stepping on the money hose, and business starts investing again. Someday the economy will eventually turn around taking further pressure off.
Two things I find funny. The thought that balance budgets matter because thanks to section 25 abuses we don’t really have a budget because it just all gets shot into next year. That raising more revenue via taxes or borrowing is going to solve our problems. Why would you solve the state’s problems if you can just go back to the well and hike taxes? Politicians don’t use new money to pay back old favors. They use new money to buy new votes.
Just as in personal finance the only way out is to stop borrowing and spending.
- DnstateAnon - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
Sorry the budget hole is around 7 billion.
- RJW - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 2:56 pm:
Budget Boy:
I hope you are not in charge of finances anywhere. I agree that you can separate out the numbers to form two issues - current deficit and unpaid backlog of bills. However, you don’t just say we can come up with $5 billion and solve the problem. You HAVE to take care of the other $8 billion because that is not a “normal rollover” by anyone’s standards. You have to overcome the unpaid bills just to even begin to conquer the current year deficit. I have no argument with it being a multi-year solution (Constitutional issues about a balanced budget notwithstanding), but people need to be honest and stop trying to somehow minimize the budget hole. Anybody who commits to “no new taxes” and turns around and says they are going to balance the budget is being intellectually dishonest. If they are going to do that then they need to go further and outline what state government looks like when they are done so that people fully understand all of the services they will lose.
- Captain Flume - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 3:32 pm:
Really I think it’s the fault of Hard Copy. I am not a fan of the lowest common denominator, no matter how egalitarian it is spun to be.
- budget boy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 3:33 pm:
RJW, If we get spending in line with revenue on a year to year basis, we can start to pay down the other 8 billion. We will have to roll some of it and borrow for some it. Perhaps a second round of federal stimulus means that the backlog in 2011 is only 7 billion and 2012 its down to $5 billion.
“I just can’t take it any more” with all of the tax hike advocates, who call anyone who disagrees with them dishonest.
The constant broken-record call for a tax hike is intellectually lazy and insulting to hard-working taxpayers who have already given so much.
- Obamas' Puppy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 3:50 pm:
The Trib has become a shadow of its former self. When you are able to predict the response to every piece of political rhetoric you become irrelevant. To me that is what the Tribune is a meat grinder that turns out the same product regardless of the issue.
- RJW - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 4:02 pm:
Budget Boy:
I did not say I was for a tax hike. Being “for” a tax hike and recognizing the “need” for a tax hike are two different things. I am also a hard-working taxpayer, but I underderstand reality which is you cannot cut $13 billion out of the budget (unless, as I said before, you draw a picture of all the services state government will no longer provide). If people are fine with that so be it. However, the state cannot “pay down” the $8 billion in unpaid bills like an individual would pay off a loan. Unless it is bonds for consruction, state government finance does not work that way.
Also, as a very important side note, the state’s credit rating is not so hot and is not likely to rebound anytime soon; it probably will even continue to fall. Would you really lend the State of Illinois money? The state will be borrowing at enormously high interest rates which will just add to the debt.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 4:27 pm:
Let’s think like Businessman Andy McKenna for a moment on taxes. Let’s say Andy’s dad owned Ford Motor Company, instead of Schwarz. Back in 1994, a Ford Explorer had an MSRP of roughly $18,000. If I understand Andy’s thinking correctly, today that MSRP should still be $18,000.
That is what he’s saying about Illinois’ income tax, isn’t it? I realize the tax rate is a percentage and not a flat price, but even Ford understands that prices have to go up when costs go up, which is why a 2010 Explorer lists for roughly $29,000.
Costs go up. Revenue must go up. That’s how the business world works, right? I know this is a weak argument, but so is the idea that Andy’s business acumen is all Illinois needs and that he won’t raise taxes.
So Budget Boy, I don’t think you’re dishonest (although I do think Andy is dishonest in his claims). And I agree that we need to control spending. I prefer a pay as you go approach, that if new spending is proposed it must be off-set by cuts or new revenue. I also believe Illinois needed to increase its income tax rate in 2004. We didn’t do it then, and we can’t keep putting it off while we wait for the economy to turn around.
The next governor will sign an increase in the income tax. Let’s talk about how best to do that and what else we need to do to avoid default. I’ve lost patience with those who think this is avoidable.
- zatoichi - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 5:14 pm:
Easy for McKenna to say no taxes and cut spending. He and no member of his family will ever need a state service. Say the same thing to the seniors who get their only basic daily meal through grant supported Meals on Wheels. Talk to the laid off workers in Anna and Galesburg who are on unemployment after their companies left town. Those developmentally disabled guys at the local sheltered workshop, they’ll be working where when the place closes? Like 47 says, the costs never stop. Pull the budget numbers back to 2006. The utilities, all the local retailers, car dealers, unions, and trades will all go back to 2006 levels too, right? Sure they will.
- budget boy - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 5:26 pm:
47th… not sure I’m following you. The state spent about 28 bb in 2006 and inflation has been nearly flat, but state expenses have gone up to 33 bb in 2010. So, I think part of the real concern is that we don’t know why it costs 40 percent more to build the same ford explorer when the cost of parts should have remained nearly the same. But, when your business is losing money, you don’t just raise the price of the product (i.e., raise taxes). That will send a number customers out the door. Not really sure this analogy works completely.
RJW: We need to start cutting immediately. Everything needs to be on the table. I think we can cut 5 billion and roll 8 via section 25 carryovers, some short term borrowing and frankly some gimmicks. As we get more current on our bills, the backlog will start to go down. Our credit rating will stabalize if we make the necessary cuts that get us closer to a balanced budget.
Quinn’s (and madigan’s) approach has been to continue spending like normal to try and force us into a tax increase. They could have set up a two-tier system years ago and Illinois’ budget cuts pale in comparison to the measures other states have taken. And then Quinn says his only cuts left are to release violent criminals. It was a disingenuous scare tactic with tragic consequences.
I want someone in the Governor’s mansion who has staked his whole campaign on cutting spending and holding the line on taxes — not a pawn bought and paid for by the unions, hospitals and trial lawyers.
- brennan - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 6:07 pm:
They’ve been outed! The trib editorial board is so partisan it has managed to endorse the gop candidate that the rank and file hate, that dodges debates, misuses party funds to poll himself, and chartered repeated victories statewide for the party.
Are you folks crazy?
The Tribune doesn’t get endorsements right all the time, but the idea that they’re some partisan front is Looney Tunes material.
Surely you remember the endorsement of Obama who did go on to use the “stuff that happened when I was 5 years old” defense in response to hour long diatribes frtom Communist dictators.
Take a breather.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 6:28 pm:
===Surely you remember the endorsement of Obama===
One is not a trend. lol
- steve schnorf - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:53 pm:
BB; I think you are generally correct about the year to year. I also agree that if you could bring the ‘11 approp down by $5B from the ‘10, and freeze it for 2 or 3 years you could begin to quickly knock down the backlog. Of course you know we are underapproped by more than a billion in ‘10, so that really means a cut of $6B, and since you’ve got payment on the pension notes of $800,000,000 coming on the spending side in ‘11, now we’re up to a cut of closer to $7B, etc, etc.
But you are still correct, on paper it can be done. I’ve said for 2 years that anyone with pencil and paper and 8th grade math skills can balance the state’s budget on paper (its really what most of the R candidates are doing). The problem is reality based. A Democrat GA (and its still going to be D after next November regardless of who is Governor) isn’t going to pass a budget with 2B cuts to K-12, 3B in human services, 1/2B in higher Ed, etc. Solutions that are theoretical rather than implementable aren’t solutions at all, they are mental masturbation; feels good, doesn’t actually accomplish much! BTW, I suspect that most Rs in the GA would gladly pass up the opportunity to vote for an ‘11 budget balanced on the spend side.
Bill, you are absolutely wrong about Edgar and pension holidays. One of the first budget discussions he led with staff he made clear that people needed to start getting out of the habit of thinking of the pension payment as a plug number after other stuff was funded.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jan 27, 10 @ 11:56 pm:
Budget Boy: Where do you cut the $5 billion? It’s 1/5 to 1/6 of the budget.
Please work it out for us at wonkish.com The web site allows you to save your budget so others can look at it.
We went through this exercise last year and it cannot be done for both practical reasons (not enough fat) and political reasons (it would never make it through the GA, R’s would not even vote for such a budget).