* From what I hear, Democratic US Senate candidate David Hoffman is surging in the polls. All those newspaper endorsements are surely contributing to that. And when I say “all,” I do mean “all.” He’s pretty much run the table. Whether it’s enough to win remains the big question, because he doesn’t appear to have closed the gap enough as of yet. We’ll see what the Tribune poll says. His upcoming ad buy won’t be as big as first claimed, so that works against him because the TV market is gonna be really crowded this coming week. Hoffman talked about his momentum, and the Massachusetts Senate race, Thursday night in Evanston. Watch…
* Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady was asked earlier this week about the “dump Mark Kirk movement” in Illinois and the “split” in the GOP over Kirk’s campaign.
“The ’split,’ I don’t really accept the premise,” Brady said. “The ‘dump Kirk’ movement is a fringe movement. There’s not one candidate that’s polled about five percent except Mark Kirk. So, if there’s a split, it’s certainly not strong enough to the people that are going to come out and vote. I mean, Mark Kirk has a substantial lead, and none of these guys have been polling above five percent.” Illinois Review posted the audio on YouTube…
The reaction was not pleasant with the Right, of course, so Chairman Brady has since issued a clarification of sorts…
“My comments were not directed at the Tea Party movement or any other conservative candidates in the U.S. Senate race. They were directed at one particular candidate, not [GOP U.S. Senate candidate]Patrick Hughes.
“I have been a conservative for over 30 years. I am pro=life, for limited government, pro-Second Amendment and have been consistent in my strong support of law enforcement.
“Any statement that I am opposed to conservative principles is completely false.”
Leading African-American Pastors Stand Up Against Divisive Campaign Ad
CHICAGO – A group of leading African-American pastors in Chicago will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. on Saturday at historic Quinn Chapel in the city’s Bronzeville neighborhood.
The religious leaders will express their outrage at a recent campaign ad that uses a video clip of Mayor Harold Washington to influence voters against Governor Pat Quinn.
The community is demanding that the ad be taken off the air, along with an apology to the African-American community.
As I wrote earlier, race is really the only avenue the Quinn campaign has to save itself from this TV ad. It is what it is, and they really have no choice. However, this would be a far more valid approach if Quinn hadn’t used Bobby Rush, who has fashioned himself as a more-than-willing race-baiter, particularly since his blatant “lynching” comments on the Roland Burris appointment.
The Quinn folks fervently claim that Hynes played the race card first by hypocritically using the late Harold Washington as a surrogate in order to hurt Quinn with black voters and depress black turnout. They have several valid points. But, again, this ad transcends the race issue because, as I’ve written before, the points Washington made about Quinn are so “today.” That’s why the Quinn push-back has to be so strong. Get people to forget about the competency issue and onto Chicago’s divisive racial history. The Chicago media usually loves a race battle, so coverage should be intense.
During Quinn’s speech to Operation PUSH this morning, the governor said “We will not let those who would divide go back to those ugly times.” You don’t need a code book to translate what he’s saying there. Have a look…
It is what it is. And it’s gonna get really ugly.
* Meanwhile, the Hynes campaign has a new Internet video about the controversy. Watch it…
Speaking to a predominantly African-American congregation at a South Side church [last night], Quinn recounted how he stood by Washington and worked to help get him elected. He also brought up the political history of how Hynes’ father, 19th Ward power broker Tom Hynes, opposed Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor.
“(Hynes) and his father in the 1980s were standing against Harold Washington and everything he tried to do bring our city together, bring our state together. I was on Harold Washington’s side on every single election Tom Hynes and his son Dan were against Harold Washington,” Quinn said. “They were part of the mass of resistance against Harold Washington, and I think that there’s a real choice for voters today not to go back to that, stand with me where I believe everyone’s in and nobody’s out.”
Quinn said the ad is reason for voters to shun Hynes in the Feb. 2 Democratic governor primary.
“Are we going to have 11 days from today a governor who brings our state together or are we going to go back to what happened before I came along with a governor who’s dividing people? I don’t think we want that,” Quinn said.
From a Quinn press release…
Responding to increasing community outrage over the Hynes campaign’s divisive television ads, Governor Pat Quinn will speak on Saturday at the Rainbow PUSH Coalition Saturday Forum, led by the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. They will be joined by U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who has endorsed Governor Quinn in the Feb. 2 Democratic primary election.
Careful viewers will note, however, that race is not the theme of Hynes’ attack on Quinn. The theme is competence. And for all that, the ad may remind black voters of the unpleasant Hynes family legacy from the 1980s, but it will also remind black and white Democratic primary voters of their main doubt about Quinn — not his heart, his passion or his fundamental integrity, but his competence.
Never mind who ran against whom when. Voters are going to want to know this: Was Washington right in 1987 that Quinn was a goof-up who just wanted to agitate for his causes? And, either way, what has Quinn done in the interim to show that Washington judged him too hastily?
Did Hynes need to take that risk? Go for the game-changer that looks a bit like a Hail Mary pass? Earlier polls showed him trailing badly, but the new Tribune/WGN-TV poll released this weekend shows that, before the Washington commercial was released, the race had tightened to a near statistical deadlock.
“Careful” viewers won’t have to note anything. The “competence” point is as plain as day in that ad.
The Quinn people know that when you force voters to think too much about things - like how Hynes’ father ran against Harold Washington - you lose. So, they’ve resorted to a tactic which doesn’t require thinking because it can be so utterly reactionary: racial politics.
Keep in mind that the Tribune poll and other surveys have shown Quinn tanking in the black community, even before the Harold Washington ad. This is a high stakes game. The Hynes people believe they adequately tested this message before running the Washington ad. We’ll find out in a few days whether they tested it enough.
Expect a new Hynes ad soon, though. I’m hearing the new ad is Quinn - on video - gushing over Rod Blagojevich. The easily comprehended message is: Harold Washington didn’t like Quinn, but Quinn liked Rod.
* Tribune poll, with December results in parentheses…
Pat Quinn: 44 (49)
Dan Hynes: 40 (23)
No surprise, considering that Quinn’s own tracker had the race as a three-point game…
Among Democrats, Quinn’s better than 2-to-1 lead over Hynes in a Tribune survey six weeks ago has evaporated amid concerns about the unelected incumbent’s ability to handle the job. The poll of 601 likely Democratic voters showed Quinn with 44 percent and Hynes with 40 percent — within the survey’s 4 percentage point error margin. Thirteen percent of the voters were undecided.
A more recent poll taken by Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign has this race at 46-44, sources say.
According to the Trib poll, Quinn’s approval rating is 43 percent, while his disapproval is at 31 - far lower than the 60 percent claimed by a recent Dan Hynes poll. Two-thirds of Dem voters called Quinn’s early release program “wrong.” Trouble…
Mirroring the overall results, 44 percent of black voters in the survey favored Quinn and 40 percent backed Hynes. But only 36 percent of African-American voters said they approved of the job Quinn was doing as governor.
Keep in mind that this poll was taken before the Harold Washington ad went on the air. The trend is not the governor’s friend. And he’s below 50, where no incumbent wants to be.
* On to the Republicans…
* Andy McKenna 19 (12)
* Jim Ryan 18 (26)
* Kirk Dillard 14 (9)
* Bill Brady 9 (10)
More…
McKenna’s ad blitz helped him achieve support from 19 percent of Republican voters compared to 18 percent for Elmhurst’s Ryan and 14 percent for Dillard, of Hinsdale.
Another 9 percent backed state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, while Hinsdale transparency advocate Adam Andrzejewski had 7 percent and Chicago political pundit Dan Proft had 6 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided in the survey of 592 likely Republican primary voters. […]
McKenna and Ryan are strongest in Chicago and the suburbs, where each has support from more than one in five voters surveyed. Dillard has the backing of 22 percent of downstate voters, but lags in his home base.
Dillard’s name ID went from about half in the last Tribune poll to 81 percent in this one.
* ABC7 has a report from the racially charged press conference today…
“If there were any African-Americans considering voting for Dan Hynes as a result of this ad, I think they are going to be turning away from him and turn to Pat Quinn as a result of this ad,” said U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush, (D) Chicago & South Suburbs.
Rush and his colleagues also noted that Hynes’ father, former county assessor and state senator Tom Hynes, was one of Washington’s most bitter political enemies who abandoned the democratic party in 1987 to run against the city’s first black mayor. “I was 18 years old when my father ran for mayor. But he is running against me, not my father,” said Hynes.
“Are you trying to suggest that there is no link between Dan Hynes today and who his daddy was?” said Gutierrez.
The congressmen demanded that Hynes the remove the ad. As of Friday afternoon it was still running on all the Chicago television stations.
Congressman Rush warned of what he called a blacklash in which wised-up African-American voters would turn against Hynes.
Although he would not say that he felt betrayed by the mayor, Quinn said: “When I was appointed, the mayor said, ‘Remember, Quinn, no one speaks for Harold Washington but Harold Washington. You have got to clean this place up, and don’t let any of these political things interfere.’ ”
Quinn said, “People would come to me, so-called friends of the administration, asking, ‘Can you do this or that?’ and I would send them on their way firmly but politely.”
Quinn said he was made aware of possible problems by Alton Miller, Washington’s press secretary, in a conversation Wednesday night.
“I had been at the park with my kids, and as I was pushing them on the swing, I thought to myself that I had better start looking for health insurance because I might not be with the program Friday,” he said. “I know the job I did at the board of appeals and also here and when I go home at night, my conscience won’t kick me in the shins.”
“It’s almost kind of paternal disappointment,” said Alton Millter, speechwriter and press secretary for the late mayor, to the Chicago Current. “Harold Washington thought he had another team player … and became alarmed when he noticed that Quinn was talking to the media without … sufficient coordination from the mayor’s standpoint.”
All this is so much clutter when Washington, himself, is on tape speaking so forcefully against Pat Quinn. As I wrote in the Sun-Times today, “Who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”
* We’re all expecting Tribune poll numbers soon, but GOP gubernatorial candidate Andy McKenna is releasing his own results ahead of time. This is from McKenna’s pollsters, John McLaughlin and Stuart Polk dated today…
With 2-weeks to go, the survey results from last night clearly illustrate that Andy McKenna has been building momentum and is making a charge at the end to win the Republican primary for Governor. It is evident that Andy McKenna has used his resources effectively to communicate a strong message and put him in a position to win. With the right amount of resources, Andy McKenna can continue his momentum and win the Republican primary for Governor.
Half (49%) of the Republican primary electorate recalls seeing a television ad about Andy McKenna within the past couple of weeks. Those voters who have seen the McKenna TV ads are significantly more favorable to him and more likely to vote for him.
Since October, Andy McKenna has made the biggest gains among all of the candidates and is now tied for first place. Jim Ryan’s numbers have actually started to erode while Andy McKenna’s efforts have made him a top contender with traction in this crowded primary field. He is maintaining momentum with his effective media campaign and voter outreach. Among those who have seen his television ad, he is the frontrunner.
More from the poll…
Which candidate for Governor is best described by the following statement… “will cut spending and will not raise taxes”?
* Meanwhile, Jim Ryan has a new video of the Bob Schillerstrom endorsement. Have a look…
* Also, SEIU has made a belated endorsement of Toni Preckwinkle for county board president. SEIU has concentrated most of its resources on Gov. Quinn’s campaign - kicking in well more than $1 million since July of last year.
* Quinn’s presser blasting Hynes for the Harold Washington ad is now on YouTube. It’s in four parts. Have a look…
* Thanks to a commenter, I checked the latest campaign finance report from Gov. Quinn and saw this…
At exactly the same time that the governor is trying to restart “Council Wars” with his counter-attacks on Tom and Dan Hynes and worshipful words about Harold Washington, Quinn’s taking $100,000 from one of the war’s chief architects, Ald. Ed Burke.
I love political irony, and this one is rich on all sides.
* From a press release…
WHO: U.S. Rep. Danny Davis
U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky
U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez
Jacky Grimshaw, former top aide to Mayor Harold Washington
WHAT: NEWS CONFERENCE TO DENOUNCE CYNICAL HYNES AD
* Toni Preckwinkle leads the race for Cook County Board President, according to a new Tribune poll. The poll has it 36 for Preckwinkle (up from 20), 24 percent for Dorothy Brown (down from 29), 16 percent for Terry O’Brien (up from 11) and 11 for Todd Stroger (down from 14). 14 percent are still undecided. Keep in mind that polling Democratic primary races in Cook County is very difficult. More…
Democratic voters with a favorable impression of Preckwinkle have doubled from 23 percent last month to 45 percent now. Her favorable impression among white voters also doubled to 54 percent. Those factors help explain why she has the support of 46 percent of white voters in the contest.
O’Brien, the lone white candidate, has the backing of 25 percent of white voters.
Among black voters, Brown scored 36 percent support, Preckwinkle had 24 percent, Stroger had 23 percent and O’Brien 4 percent. […]
The poll showed Brown losing support among suburban county voters as her opponents in recent weeks publicly questioned her practice of accepting gifts, including cash, from employees.
Her office promises a “full accounting” of money is spent from the program that allows circuit court clerk employees to pay $2 or $3 to wear jeans in the office.
For years, employees have complained about the practice.
Brown recently told the Tribune that all the money collected either goes to charities or into a fund that pays for an annual employee appreciation awards ceremony.
“It’s a voluntary thing,” said Brown, noting the jeans practice is not held every Friday. “If they want to do it, fine, because blue jeans is not our attire, and you have to have on a tag saying I’m wearing blue jeans because…But they want to wear blue jeans and not pay — is that what it is?”
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* Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes debated again last night, but it doesn’t appear that much new ground was broken…
“We need someone who can’t be tied to Rod Blagojevich,” Hynes said during the debate, which was moderated by Jak Tichenor of WSIU-TV and featured questioning by David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute and Jennifer Fuller of WSIU Public Radio.
But Quinn said he’s made more budget cuts than any governor in state history and that the comptroller presented him with a budget plan that was unbalanced by about $4.5 billion.
Hynes said though SIUC will be receiving financial help soon, the governor lacks a plan to help SIUC and other state universities achieve financial stability.
“It’s not a real solution. We need a comprehensive plan to address the budget crisis,” he said.
One of my interns, Barton Lorimor, was at the event and videotaped the after-debate pressers. The Quinn video isn’t available right now, but here’s Dan Hynes…
Quinn said he took particular offense to Hynes’ use of Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor. Calling Washington a friend, Quinn said Hynes and his father, Tom, a veteran of Chicago politics, fought against Washington “every step of the way.”
“It’s downright sacrilegious for two hypocrites who never supported him (Washington) to invoke him,” he said.
Quinn left the revenue department in June 1987. Washington says Quinn was “dismissed” for refusing to do what he was told and for using the department to further his own agenda.
But Quinn said Thursday that he resigned because he insisted on handling his duties ethically despite pressure to cut corners from others in Washington’s administration.
To tamp down the ad’s possible damage, Quinn’s campaign reached out to Chicago media outlets with large black audiences and dispatched former Washington political advisor Jacky Grimshaw, a Quinn campaign supporter who also headed Washington’s Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. Grimshaw said despite the harsh rhetoric, the two remained friends.
“Harold could be angry with you in public and still be friends with you behind closed doors. As far as I know, that was definitely the case with Quinn,” said Grimshaw, a Quinn appointee to the CTA board.
But Washington’s former press secretary, Alton Miller, who has not endorsed either Hynes or Quinn, predicted the ad could carry a catastrophic effect against the governor in the black community.
“This is truly what Harold Washington felt. I’m sorry to say, it’s absolutely the Harold Washington I remember, and it’s the mood and the level of disappointment I remember,” said Miller, who likewise noted the irony of the son of a Washington enemy invoking the late mayor in a campaign ad.
At the same time, Miller said, “I don’t know how in the hell you rebut it. I honestly don’t. If I’m Quinn’s people, I better have a strategy that doesn’t depend on a strong vigorous turnout from the black community. If Hynes has the money to get this out, and I’m sure he does, it’s going to be absolutely devastating.”
“Who are you gonna believe, me, or your lying eyes?”
Richard Pryor coined that phrase, but it has become Gov. Quinn’s stock reaction to his opponent’s campaign ads.
After being hammered by Comptroller Dan Hynes for secretly releasing hundreds of dangerous felons from prison early, Quinn ran a response TV ad claiming that Hynes had “grossly” distorted his record.
The “truth,” Quinn’s ad claimed, was that Quinn wanted to move nonviolent offenders into halfway homes — as if the widely condemned early release program never even existed.
“Who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”
You may not have seen Hynes’ latest TV ad, but you will. It will soon be the most talked-about spot of the entire campaign.
The ad features an interview with the late Mayor Harold Washington talking about why he fired Pat Quinn as his revenue director.
“I was nuts to do it,” Washington says about hiring Quinn. “I must have been blind or staggering, I would never appoint Pat Quinn to do anything.”
It gets better.
“Pat Quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual,” Washington says.
That’s gotta sting.
Washington complains in the video that Quinn wouldn’t do what he was supposed to do. Instead, Quinn used the office as a public relations “plantation.”
“He was dismissed. He should’ve been dismissed. My only regret is that we hired him and kept him too long. That was perhaps my greatest mistake in government.”
While those look like supreme- ly harsh words on paper, watching Washington actually say them on video is truly striking. The ad practically reaches out of your TV screen and grabs you by the throat. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.
The same basic principle was behind running an ad featuring the already dead Paul Simon endorsing Barack Obama for the U.S. Senate. A beloved figure, sainted in the political culture, Simon advised us how to vote from beyond the grave.
Twenty-two years after his death, Harold Washington is still revered in Chicago, particularly by white liberals and African Americans.
Using him is a no-brainer, particularly after softening Quinn up with millions of dollars of TV ads questioning the governor’s competency.
The Quinn people say there’s no way that Washington would want to help out a member of the Hynes family. Dan Hynes’ father ran against Washington in 1987, when the future state comptroller was still in high school.
They have a point about the father, but the Quinn folks can yell all they want and it won’t do much good because we can’t ask a dead man what he thinks now about the grown-up Dan Hynes. We know, thanks to this videotape, what Harold Washington thought of Pat Quinn.
The Quinn campaign is pushing back so hard not because Hynes has somehow defiled Washington’s hallowed memory (although they’d love to somehow create a backlash), but because the late mayor’s comments could’ve been uttered last week.
They are an eerily perfect prelude to Quinn’s meltdown as governor and Hynes’ effective campaign to point out the governor’s mismanagement and administrative incompetence. Washington’s long-ago words match Hynes’ current message — and the image that more and more voters now have of their governor.
True to form, Quinn denied Thursday that he was ever fired by the late mayor. “That didn’t happen,” Quinn said. “I resigned.”
On the one hand, we’ve got Washington saying on videotape Quinn was “dismissed” for good reason.
On the other, Quinn says he resigned and always supported his dear friend Harold.
“Who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”
* Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Schillerstrom will announce at 11 o’clock today that he’s dropping out of the race and is endorsing Jim Ryan.
Discuss.
I’ll be updating this post with more on the GOP candidates in a bit.
*** UPDATE *** From a press release…
Statement from McKenna for Illinois Spokesman Lance Trover on the Tax and Spenders Teaming Up:
“This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone since Jim Ryan and Bob Schillerstrom teamed with Kirk Dillard to raise taxes on suburban families – it appears now they want to team up and take their tax and spend ways from the suburbs to all Illinois families.”
On the Republican side, McKenna is far ahead of the six other primary candidates in fundraising, thanks in part to putting up $1.6 million of his own wealth… McKenna also raised more than $2 million from individuals, companies and groups, giving him a $3.6 million war chest.
State Sen. Kirk Dillard has raised about $800,000 in his bid. The veteran Hinsdale lawmaker also took more than $600,000 in loans.
DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom has raised just more than $700,000, including a $100,000 personal loan to his campaign. Former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan has raised just over half a million dollars.
Downstate candidate state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington also has raised just over half a million dollars since June. Chicago conservative commentator Dan Proft has raised about a quarter of a million dollars in cash and donated goods and services.
Added campaign cash could be flowing into contested area congressional primaries in a matter of days, thanks to Thursday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Illinois political observers predicted.
“I would imagine, based on the ruling today, you may see some corporate play within a week and a half,” said state Rep. Jim Durkin, a Westchester Republican, and a former candidate for U.S. Senate. “Clearly this is going to have a major impact on midterm elections next November. I can’t even fathom how much money is going to go into these elections.”
I wrote “maybe” because, at least with the unions, they’re so committed right now to funding the Democratic governor’s race that they won’t have the cash to get too involved with federal races. As for corporations, well, that could be a different story, although many companies are having tough times these days. Things will change by the fall campaign, however.
But it doesn’t appear that there will be any impact on Illinois’ state races…
The court’s ruling is predicted to similarly end corporate and union restrictions in 24 states. However, Illinois has no existing restrictions. Limits on such spending also were not part of a campaign finance overhaul that legislative Democrats and Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn approved last year.
Those laws, which begin with the 2012 campaign season, for the first time here limit how much individuals and businesses can give to candidates, but don’t restrict how much a company or union can spend on its own to support candidates.
Alexi Giannoulias on the ruling via press release…
“I profoundly disagree with today’s Supreme Court ruling. The very corporate special interests that got us into this economic mess should be given less power to influence elections, not more. I am proud to be the first U.S. Senate candidate in Illinois history to refuse money from corporate PACs and federal lobbyists because I believe that to get our economy back on track and create the next generation of good-paying jobs, we have to break the grip of corporate interests in Washington.
“My likely Republican opponent Mark Kirk doesn’t believe there is a problem. In his decade in Washington, he has taken more corporate PAC money than just about any other politician. He then voted their way on one reckless Bush economic policy after another. That is why he refused to disclose how he would have voted on the confirmation of Justice Sotomayor and that’s why he still won’t speak about it even today. He cannot be trusted to be an advocate for working families or the middle class.”
“According to state and federal records, Alexi Giannoulias took $504,700 from corporate and union Political Action Committeesas state treasurer and already accepted another $63,500 from special interest, business and union PACs in his bid for Senate,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In the wake of Rod Blagojevich and Roland Burris, Illinois voters deserve better.”
* Illinois Dem. Senate Debate Shaped by Massachusetts
* Scott Brown makes rounds in Senate: Moments before Brown walked into McCain’s second floor Russell office, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) — the GOP front-runner for President Barack Obama’s old Senate seat — came through the crowd of reporters booming, “Illinois is next!” and entered the Arizona senator’s reception room.
* Poll: Blunt leading Carnahan as Demo candidates sink: In Illinois, Sabato said, Democrats would have had a better chance in November had state Attorney General Lisa Madigan chosen to run. As for the GOP’s likely candidate, Rep. Mark Kirk, “He’s the perfect profile of a Republican who can win in a good year,” Sabato said.
