* Polling charts can be very helpful in analyzing campaigns. These are from pollster.com. Their javascript is not working properly, so I’m using screen caps. Click the pics for larger images.
Let’s start with the Democratic governor’s race…
The trend is obviously not the governor’s friend. The question now is whether he’s stopped the bleeding. Still, his job performance numbers with undecideds are just awful. Very tough to overcome. And his campaign mechanism has imploded in recent days as Quinn has taken complete charge of his schedule and his message.
The Republicans…
For me, the question here is whether McKenna can get himself over the top. He has the bucks and the message, but he’s still a relatively unknown quantity to regular Repubs. Notice how everyone is moving up but Jim Ryan, who sat on his big lead, didn’t raise enough money and could pay for those mistakes tomorrow.
Also, I just got a call from the Adam A campaign. Apparently Rush Limbaugh just called him “the Scott Brown of Illinois.” He’s been getting a ton of late help from conservative media the past few days, but, as I said, it’s late. The Right was so outraged by Mark Kirk that they ignored a guy who had a shot.
…Adding… I just listened to the audio file of Rush’s show. He didn’t mention Adam A by name. Probably because he didn’t know how to pronounce it.
* The Senate Democratic primary…
That downward trend line for Giannoulias and the steep upward line for Hoffman are what has the Giannoulias campaign more than a bit freaked right now. He’s still got the lead, but it’s dwindling and there are still lots of undecideds.
The race is for all intents and purposes between Giannoulias and Hoffman; Jackson, a former communications spokeswoman for Rod Blagojevich, will probably be limited to 15-20 percent of the vote, mostly coming from Chicago’s predominately Afrian-American South Side. Hoffman, however, has gradually been creeping up on Giannoulias, the front-runner.
And the Republicans…
No analysis necessary.
* Oh, goodie. Exit polling. I’m not sure how scientific this will be, but I’ll be watching tomorrow. From a press release…
The Chicago Current, Chicago’s political journal, will conduct exit polling for the Feb. 2 Illinois primary election. Voting data from polling places across Cook County will be collected to provide media outlets and the public with accurate trends to gauge voters’ preferences.
Analysis of the data will be available throughout Tuesday at www.chicagocurrent.com. Data will include trends for the Democratic Illinois Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as for the Cook County Board president’s race.
“Our study will show which candidates are trending upward or downward throughout the day, while providing statistical analysis of which way voters are leaning,” says Current editor Geoff Dougherty. […]
Current reporters will be following the race throughout the day, and reporting on Twitter, using the hashtag #ILVote.
Fun.
* Bernie Schoenburg has posted his statewide predictions, which were compiled by Eric Zorn…
* GOVERNOR: Hynes, Dillard
* U.S. SENATOR: Giannoulias, Kirk
* LT .GOV. Turner./ Murphy
* COMPTROLER . Miller/Topinka
* TREAS: Kelly (Dan Rutherford is running unopposed for the GOP)
* These Stroger/Fritchey signs began mysteriously appearing on light posts and street signs on the Northwest Side this weekend…
Rep. John Fritchey, you already know, is running for the county board against former Ald. Ted Matlak - a supreme hackmeister. Fritchey responds on FaceBook…
Leave it to an old-school hack opponent to resort to old-school dirty tricks like this one. Let’s put an end to this nonsense tomorrow. Vote for Toni Preckwinkle for Board President and for me for County Commissioner. It’s time for change.
* In the 47th Ward, Ald. Gene Schulter put the official City of Chicago Seal on his election day mailer. That would not be legal. Click on the pic for the full thing…
Sheesh.
* As I told subscribers this morning, Ald. Ed Smith did a robocall into the 10th House District slamming the only white candidate, Jonathan Goldman. Listen…
From Goldman’s weekend press release…
On Jan. 30, many 10th District voters came home to a thinly veiled racist robocall on their answering machines from Alderman Ed Smith on behalf of State Rep. Annazette Collins.
In the 48-second recording, Smith states that Bucktown resident Jonathan Goldman, the only white opponent of Collins in the Feb. 2 Democratic primary, “lives in the Bucktown and Lincoln Park areas but wants to take over the East and West Garfield Park areas.”
The racist tactic incensed a multicultural group of political and community leaders that gathered for a press conference Jan. 31 to denounce it. Goldman was joined by 26th Ward Ald. Roberto Maldonado, West Side activist Virgil Crawford, Rev. Charles Walker, Jr., and other district residents.
“The State of Illinois is facing serious problems, and I have been talking about my plans for solving our fiscal crisis, creating jobs and reducing gun violence,” said Goldman. “Unfortunately, Ald. Smith and Rep. Collins don’t have any plans, so instead all they want to talk about is the race of the candidates opposing her. Isn’t it time we put the politics of racial division behind us?”
Ald. Maldonado called for an immediate end to the divisive tactics: “I hope that Ald. Smith will really come forward and apologize for the tone of that robocall and hopefully these acts of desperation will not continue through Election Day.”
Rev. Walker agreed, saying, “What difference does it make what color the person is as long as he can get the job done? The job isn’t getting done right now.”
Neither Angela McMahon, of Evergreen Park, nor Karen Sullivan Casey, of Oak Lawn, circulated a single petition sheet herself to get on the ballot in the 36th District. The seat is open due to the retirement of state Rep. James Brosnahan (D-Evergreen Park).
Wouldn’t you think if you were running for office for the first time you might ask your neighbor, even your husband, to sign a petition sheet? Host a coffee? Attend a debate? Neither did.
More than 80 circulators who live outside the district in the 13th and 23rd wards of Chicago descended on Evergreen Park in the fall to collect signatures on McMahon’s and Casey’s behalf. Keep in mind they’re supposedly “competitors” for the seat, but the same troops helped them both get on the ballot. Those would be House Speaker Michael Madigan’s troops, along with 23rd Ward Committeeman Michael Zalewski’s. […]
Meanwhile in the 37th House District GOP primary, Jeffrey Junkas of Tinley Park faces Molly McAvoy Flynn, of Orland Park. The winner will try to unseat state Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D-Orland Park) in November.
Flynn - notice the Irish female thing again - has run a campaign in name only. She also didn’t circulate a single petition sheet herself.
The same 13th and 23rd ward foot soldiers who worked the Evergreen Park district gathered signatures for Flynn to get on the ballot in Orland Park.
Defending his handling of the state’s deficit-plagued budget, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn said today he’s “cut all the frills” out of state government but more tax money is needed to fund essential services. […]
“What I basically have done is cut all the frills out of state government — more than $2 billion of cuts of non-priority items,” Quinn said.
That’s pretty easy to disprove, discredit and ridicule. Anybody can find a bit of “frills” in the budget. It ain’t hard. Take, for instance, the money he’s spending on airplane rides.
A nasty hit piece hit residents of the 8th Cook County Commissioner’s district. Coming from the phantom “Taxpayers Coalition Initiative” which provides no return address, the piece delves into Nogueras’ tenure with the Puerto Rican Chamber of Commerce and unpaid water bills. The piece is huge–22×17–full color, glossy. The 60647 post office, from where the piece originated, did not provide information on the owner of the “Permit #1″ used to send the piece out.
Nogueras’ opponent, Ed Reyes, is an ally of 33rd Ward boss Dick Mell, who engineered his elevation to the seat after Roberto Maldonado was appointed by Mayor Daley to replace Billy Ocasio, who in turn was appointed to Governor Quinn’s staff after he replaced Rod Blagojevich. To get that straight: Blagojevich gets impeached, Quinn taps Ocasio, Daley taps Maldonado, Maldonado pushes for Nogueras to replace him but gets outmaneuvered Mell.
How does Quinn the Outsider choose Berrios the Insider instead of former Circuit Court Judge Raymond Figueroa, the only assessor candidate with any reform credentials? I just don’t get it.
Figueroa, you should know, is nursing a severely slashed hand after confronting a guy who was yanking down his campaign yard signs last Tuesday. The guy fled. Figueroa, 62, went to the emergency room and got bandaged up.
Mr. Quinn’s spokeswoman said he endorsed the candidate because he’s known Mr. Berrios for decades, when Mr. Quinn was a commissioner and Mr. Berrios was on the board’s staff, and “believes Mr. Berrios is qualified to be assessor.”
Uh-huh. And it has nothing to do with the fact that the Cook County Democratic Central Committee — Joe Berrios, chairman — has endorsed Mr. Quinn for governor?
And it doesn’t make Mr. Quinn — who always rails about how he’s on the side of the little guys against special interests — look like a raging hypocrite?
Sad. Sad. And, sad.
* This is not a hit piece, nor is it negative, but it is certainly one of the more hilariously bizarre stories I’ve seen in a while…
A longtime spokesman to arguably the state’s most powerful Democrat supports former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s trip to central Illinois as “a good thing.”
Steve Brown, aide to Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, is vice president of the board of directors governing Five Points Washington, where Palin will deliver a speech April 17 kicking off the organization’s “Lessons from Leaders” series.
Brown, whose family has lived in Washington for the past five years, emphasized that the address isn’t a “political event” and should not be viewed as such.
“I think the governor has established a niche for herself,” Brown said. “I’m a person who believes there is a lot of room for different points of views.”
Brownie is not exactly known for his love of Republicans. I spit out my coffee when I saw that piece.
* Alderman Scott Waguespack Abandons Neutrality in Race to Succeed Rep John Fritchey to Back Ed Mullen
* In many legislative contests, Tuesday will decide who’s going to Springfield
* Watch state spend wildly at new website: A Web site launched by the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago displays a ticker that counts up Illinois’ debt. On Friday evening, the number was around $128,586,300,000 and swiftly on the rise.
* Investigation Needed Into Governor Pat Quinn’s Personal Ponzi Scheme
* Veteran Dems point to differing backgrounds in Cook assessor race
Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department
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Remember, we get the government we deserve, so don’t forget to vote tomorrow. And don’t forget those judicial candidates. Judges play a vital role in all of our lives. Just ask any politician!
* As I wrote over the weekend, Dan Hynes’ Harold Washington ad is so difficult to rebut not just because Washington’s words are so powerful and prescient, but because there is a legitimate disagreement over whether Washington really meant what he said. Chicago Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington weighs in against Quinn today…
A pre-election postscript: There’s one political old-timer whose wisdom, even in death, is as relevant today as 22 years ago. Back then, I was privileged to serve as a spokeswoman for Mayor Harold Washington. Forever eloquent, Washington knew exactly what he was saying in that long-ago interview about firing Gov. Quinn. He meant every unequivocal word of it, and then some.
Washington doesn’t need to be rescued by craven politicians who feign outrage at that brilliant Dan Hynes campaign ad. The cynical rush by the pols to protect Washington’s name is a fig leaf for protecting the benefits of incumbency.
Like Quinn, Dan Hynes is an imperfect candidate. But that ad was not racist. It was right.
* I write my syndicated newspaper column on Friday. The Southtown-Star and others run the column over the weekend or on Monday, but the weeklies don’t run it until Wednesday or Thursday. So, I can’t really write about the election at hand. Such was the case this time as well…
Lawyers for Rod Blagojevich told reporters that there might be a delay in the former governor’s criminal trial when a federal grand jury, as expected, hands down a new indictment. But they also stressed that they were working hard to keep the trial on track for its June start date.
As I write this, the U.S. Attorney’s office in Chicago is hoping to re-indict Blagojevich in order to make sure its criminal case isn’t damaged by an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the federal “Honest Services” statute. The brief statute has been used by federal prosecutors for years to prosecute politicians and corporate executives on a wide variety of charges, claiming they defrauded citizens, investors, etc. via “a scheme or artifice to deprive another of the intangible right of honest services.”
The law has come under fire because it is so incredibly vague that prosecutors have used it to prosecute all sorts of behavior. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer wondered aloud whether a worker taking an unauthorized break “to read the Racing Form” could be indicted.
Thankfully, federal prosecutors have better things to do than indict employees for reading newspapers. Still, the law is so vague and broad that Chief Justice John Roberts more than hinted that the statute was impossible to understand, which would therefore make it unconstitutional. Former Gov. George Ryan, Enron’s former president Jeff Skilling, former Chicago media baron Conrad Black and many others, including Rod Blagojevich were all indicted on honest services fraud counts.
At least some court-imposed restrictions on the law are expected, so prosecutors are scrambling to make sure their cases are solid, including in Chicago.
But this column isn’t about honest services fraud. It’s about Illinois politics. So, let’s get on with it.
Blagojevich’s criminal trial has been expected to last most of the summer and end just about the time that the fall campaigns are heating up around Labor Day.
To date, Blagojevich has used every opportunity that he could to claim he was railroaded by prosecutors and to point fingers of blame at his fellow Democrats who he believes are far more deserving of prosecution than him.
Blagojevich deeply and thoroughly despises Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton, so many believe he’ll use his trial and the accompanying daily media spotlight to try to hurt them and, by extension, their candidates as much as he can. Blagojevich’s book is drenched with hostility towards the two men.
The former governor also detests Pat Quinn, whom he accuses of cutting a deal with Madigan and Cullerton on tax hikes in order to become governor (yes, it’s a silly theory, but this is Rod Blagojevich we’re talking about here). As I write this, we don’t know whether Quinn will survive the primary Democratic primary. But Blagojevich often sparred with Quinn’s opponent, Comptroller Dan Hynes, so I’m sure he’ll think of something to thwack Hynes with as well.
A brief delay while Blagojevich’s defense lawyers retool their case would probably hurt the Democrats even more than a June start because the trial could be pushed back into the fall campaign season itself. What the Democrats really need in order to avoid this embarrassment is a much longer delay, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards as of yet.
The only saving grace might be if Republican George Ryan makes it into the headlines with a post-decision appeal to have his conviction overturned. But even that probably wouldn’t be much help. Ryan left office a long time ago. And since the nation’s mood seems to be anti-incumbent (for good reason), and the Democrats dominate just about everything in Illinois, it’ll likely just add fuel to that particular fire.
In other words, if you’re a Democrat there’s trouble on the way for you whether you like it or not, or whether you deserve it or not. Then again, if you’re a Democrat, then there’s a good chance you voted for Blagojevich twice — or four times counting the primaries. In that case, it really is your fault. Particularly that last time, when if you’d been paying any sort of attention, you would’ve known you were taking a risk on a known ethical dud.
* NBC5 took a look at the complete internal ethics committee report by the Illinois Republican Party and found some interesting nuggets…
“Andrew McKenna compounded one ethical misstep with another,” the report said.
But what McKenna didn’t specifically address in that statement is that when he presented the poll to his party’s central committee in June 2009, he failed to mention to them that his name had been included at all. […]
The report also seems to back up candidate Jim Ryan’s assertion last week that McKenna failed, to some extent, to cooperate with the ethics committee’s investigation. In the report, the committee chairman noted that on Dec. 22, 2009, McKenna’s campaign manager was twice asked to clarify some questions that had come up, or even just to let them know he wanted more time to respond. He was given until 4 p.m. on Dec. 24. But when the report was printed on Dec. 28, he had done neither.
* He doesn’t say who did the poll, when the poll was done, or how it was done, but Gateway Pundit blogger Jim Hoft claims that Adam Andrzejewski is surging…
In the final days of this primary campaign Adam Andrzejewski is surging in the polls. He has closed the gap from 9 points down to 2 points in the last 5 days with two days to go before the primary election.
Take it for what it’s worth. I’ve sent an e-mail to Hoft asking for an explanation. Andrzejewski also had this to say to the American Spectator…
“We feel we’re either within the margin of error or leading the race right now,” said the Tea Party candidate, adding that he senses “panic” among his rivals in the crowded primary field. “We think 22 percent wins the race. Anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 votes — in a state of 13 million — will win the nomination. The bar is that low.”
I think he may do better than expected. He raised $752K during the last half of 2009, mostly in loans to himself. He’s reported raising $61K since January 1st, but he’s also claiming to be taking in lots of smaller contributions which wouldn’t show up on A-1 reports. In a normal year, that’s not enough to win. Jim Ryan has raised less than that, but Jim Ryan is far better known than AA. Still, in a year like this, who the heck knows.
That, by the way, was a classic pre-election “cover your behind” story.
[Sen. Kirk Dillard] owes three campaign supporters a total of $634,814.
That’s a very large debt. Dillard has said he won’t raise money after he takes office, so when will he raise the cash to pay off those loans? Before the fall campaign? Probably not. He’ll need every dime he can get. After the campaign and before he’s sworn in? More likely, but that’s when an administration is put together - not a great time to be raising money if you’re supposed to be Mr. Ethics.
* Related…
* Small primary turnout expected: “I’m predicting a 16 percent or so turnout,” said Winnebago County Clerk Margie Mullins. “That’s what we had four years ago.”
* Early line sees light turnout for Tuesday’s primary: [Lake County’s] Helander said she is hoping for a 30 percent turnout in her county compared to a 22 percent turnout in 2006, but the current totals are not overly encouraging.
* Illinois Primary on Tuesday: Is Obama’s State up for Grabs?
* PJ Star View: Be careful about drawing conclusions from Massachusetts: From where we sit, Republicans who want to duplicate this result and Democrats who want to prevent it need to rally behind candidates who can prove their ability to work together. In a nation facing enormous challenges, many Americans are sick of watching those they elect do nothing about them.
* Ill. candidates look to make good last impression
* We had several stories over the weekend about the new Burr Oak Cemetery allegations, but I shut down comments in the middle of it all, so let’s consolidate it all into one post for your commenting ease…
