44 Comments - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:48 am: Remarkable! Remember what I wrote when the first poll came out showing Brady way ahead? While most everyone, except the die-hard GOPers thought the poll was an outlier, I asked, “what if this poll is true? What does it mean?” Well, I still want to know. Yeah, I recognize that what the pollsters are saying about Democrats not rallying around Quinn, (because I am one of those not rallying), but still - Brady? I thought these kinds of polling numbers were supposed to have happened four years ago with Blagojevich? That would make more sense. I thought Topinka seemed more centrist and acceptable to Illinoisans than Brady since after all she was repeatedly elected statewide for 12 years. But NOOooo. We’re getting these polling numbers between Quinn and Brady. ‘Sigh!’ - Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:54 am: Maybe Quinn is having a hard time getting anyone to agree to be campaign manager. The lower he goes in the polls, and he will go lower, the harder it will be to put together a quality team or raise any money. At this point the economy can’t get good enough to help Quinn. He’s probably really popular with republicans and business interests for his pension deform but the faucet will still be shut off when he tries to pander to labor for money. Even SEIU can’t be too happy after wasting millions on his primary only to get their future members screwed. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:57 am: And SEIU current members, not the unhired, will be better with Brady? Gimme a break - the Patriot - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:58 am: ==Part of Quinn’s problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias== Really, we are going to blame Alexi for Quinn’s problem. Quinn walked lock step with a sociopath for 6 1/2 year and through two elections and claims he had no idea. Per the news yesterday, Sharon Osbourne figured it out almost the instant she met Blago. Quinn want’s to cut education and strip the State Police, but leave thousands of Blago hirees in place. Yea, Aleai is the problem. Brady, go to Cabo, show back up October 25th and do a quick fly around. You will win. - Excessively Rabid - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:00 am: I think it means that when one party has control of everything and just refuses to govern while the state goes to pieces, the other looks pretty good even if their candidate is unappealing to many voters and has a questionable grasp of the reality of the situation. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:04 am: ===blame Alexi for Quinn’s problem=== You have trouble with reading comprehension. Read it again. S-L-O-W-L-Y this time. It says no such thing. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:06 am: The Dems haven’t even started scaring women and pet owners about Brady yet. - Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:10 am: yawn…November is seven months away…how many US governors have over a 50% approval rating?… - train111 - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:11 am: Rich Yesterday you questioned me for saying the Gov results would be similar to the Senate ones. Sen was 37-33 Gov is 43-33 I think I was reasonably close in my guess. I based it on Quinn’s approval which hadn’t changed much from Jan 27 and pegged him in the low 30’s like Alexi. Was a bit of a lowball guess on Brady though. train111 - Ahoy - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:15 am: This is bad news for Quinn as far as favorability goes but it’s not so scary for election purposes. In general women and independents are very much undecided on Brady. As the election comes closer and more comes out on Brady this will change and will probably not be to Brady’s advantage (unless he completely changes his philosophy). Also, the “undecided Democrats” are not pleased with Quinn but the vast majority will still vote for him. It’s polling in April for a November election. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:16 am: train111, I knew yesterday that it was a ten-point spread. The Senate race is far closer. That’s why I said to be cautious. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:17 am: ===the vast majority will still vote for him. === The question is whether they’ll vote. That’s the problem for Democrats. The Dems who vote will mostly come home, but whether the party can get voters out of their homes and to the polls is the big question. That’s what really happened to Dems in 1994. Their turnout was so depressed that the Repubs walked in. - Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:19 am: Well, Circkie, its early yet. The current employees who still have jobs after the Quinn regime purges probably won’t be better off under Brady but they probably won’t be that much worse off either. On the other hand, if they don’t like what Quinn is doing in the meantime, I guess they could just have a rally and yell at him and he’ll flip flop for them. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:22 am: High unemployment, deadbeat state government, school layoffs, Blago…., yeah, it should be a GOP year. Brady has to tell himself every morning: Stand up straight, smile, don’t say anything scary or stupid. That might be a tall order. Quinn will land a couple of haymakers before it’s all over. We’ll see if Brady can take a punch. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:22 am: ===how many US governors have over a 50% approval rating?=== What a stupid point. He’s at 25, not 45. Find me many other governors with approval ratings like that. Sheesh. You sound just like Rod’s people in the lead-up to his arrest. - shore - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:33 am: If I’m a democrat what I am worried about right now is what happened in new jersey, massachusettes, and virginia where they thought that because of how much voters hated the gop over social issues and bush they wouldnt vote for them, only to discover after the fact that voters are willing to overlook social issues because they are so focused on the economy and wanting jobs and see the gop as better able to do that. I am not a genius and I don’t get paid to do this for a living, but I would guess those numbers you see are suburban moderates and independents who have been moving democrat over the last decade here saying, we aren’t pleased and we are going another way. Bob mcdonnell and christie won because they did well in the mark kirk areas (bergen county and northern virginia) of their states and if that’s whats happening this year, alexi and quinn are dead meat. - OneMan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:34 am: The budgetocolipse is not going to help, jobs or no jobs. Also I think some Democrats are going to think “Hell George was a crook, but with him, Edgar and Thompson things were not as bad as during the Rod and Pat show”.. - irish - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:42 am: I would have thought that there would be some effort by the Green Party to take advantage of the large group of voters who have not decided because they do not care for the message of either major party candidate. But I guess not. The other question/comment I have is: Is it possible that MJM has misread the voters, and while banking on the fact that they are all feeling as they did the last time he was faced with a tax increase and he lost his majority; he does not realize that doing something, like a tax increase, to fix the fiscal mess might actually be what the voters want? Could it be that he will lose some of his members and maybe the Governor’s seat because he DIDN’T do what was necessary, because he is afraid of what happened in the past when he DID what was necessary? - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:44 am: ===some effort by the Green Party=== They are complete amateurs who do not understand the gift they’ve been given. And that’s just part of it. It’s that wing of the Left which loves the romance of a losing cause. Kinda like Cub fans. lol - Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:46 am: Please do not compare me to Rod’s people…I have my limits even with people I respect like you…:) - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:46 am: ===might actually be what the voters want?=== Show me one poll that has strong Illinois voter support for a straight-up income tax hike on everyone (not just confined to the well-to-do) to bail out the bureaucracy and I’ll eat my Sox cap. - Vote? - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:50 am: I am 52 years old…I have voted in every primary and election….since the age of 18. Yes…you are right…I really want no part of contributing to the “lesser of two evils” method of selecting whom to vote for….so as of right now…I plan not to vote. I think that’s horribly wrong….so someone convince me…and the others like me out there…why should I reconsider..and vote? - vole - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:52 am: Quinn and Alexi may have some negative synergism working against them that translates into many dems staying home on election day. They can’t vote for Quinn or Brady. They can’t vote for Alexi or Kirk. Throw in the budget, Madigan, school cuts, state police cuts, etc. and you have a disaster for dems. - Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:53 am: ==why should I reconsider..and vote?== If you live in Chicago you vote so you can get your garbage picked up and your street swept. My suggestion is to write in Rod Blagojevich for governor. - Louis Howe - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:54 am: Rich is right about 1994, democrats stayed home which allowed a little known“Village Idiot” to beat Ann Richards for Governor. In Illinois, democrats lost every statewide office and the General Assembly. I don’t know whether democrats nationwide will face a tsunami-like 1994 election, but Illinois democrats are in much worse shape than 1994 and are in for a good pounding at the polls. - irish - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:14 pm: ===Show me one poll that has strong Illinois voter support for a straight-up income tax hike=== There isn’t one that I know of. Because polls are only relevant to the question asked. For example if I walked up to 300 Illinois taxpayers and asked, “Are you in favor of a X% increase in your income tax?” the answer would be overwhelmingly “no.” So the pollster reports Illinois voters are solidly against income tax increases. However, if I asked them ” Do you want a x% increase in everyone’s income taxes or do you want YOUR city to raise fees by x% and YOUR local property tax to go up x% and the local DMV office to be only open three days a week, and YOUR hospital and medical costs to go up because they are trying to keep their heads above water because the state isn’t paying their bills I think people might choose the income tax hike. I have had this discussion with a lot of people. And once they understand the REALITY they understand the need for income tax increase and they are generally in favor of it. The problem is that this blog is the only place where reality is being faced. - Brennan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:20 pm: Ouch. Hitting the Green Party and Cubs fans in the same comment. Foul! You’re going to spark unrest Rich. That wheel tax story from Belleville yesterday ought to resonate pretty quickly if irish’s take has any legs. Please run on raising taxes. Raise money to pump the ads on the backs of organized labor and wealthy people too. That says winner. - Will County Woman - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:21 pm: “Quinn’s best hope is that the economy turns around a bit and that he can make Brady look like evil incarnate…”—rich no offense rich, but i think excessively rabid’s analysis of what is transpiring is spot on and a an accurate assessment. sure, quinn could TRY to make brady look like “the devil incarnate.” but why do that? quinn says that he (personally) doesn’t do negative campainging (lie) eventhough he already has against brady, sans campaign manager as you point out. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:22 pm: It is somewhat surprising that Brady is getting so much support given his politics but apparently people really are ready to fumigate. - D.P. Gumby - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:47 pm: “It’s not easy being green”–Kermit T. Frog With a long summer to go, it would seem that, rather than waste time and energy bloviating like a T-bag, a Green would spend time organizing and hop to it after Labor Day after letting the two mainstream candidates croak! - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:21 pm: Bill, Blago may not be eligible to run for Governor by November. - Bongo Furry - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:30 pm: Bad numbers for Quinn. But regarding the Illinois Republican party, the Abba Eban Quote “they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity” is what Quinn may be banking on. - Ghost of John Brown - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:03 pm: Maybe Harold Washington was right about Quinn. - oneman - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:29 pm: imagine the ad showing Washington saying something then a Quinn issue flashes on the screen. - PFK - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:33 pm: I guess you’re right Rich, maybe we Greens really don’t understand the ‘gift’ we’ve been given, because honestly, I don’t remember ever getting any ‘gifts’. Everything we’ve accomplished has been a tooth and nail fight, and I attribute very little of it to luck — and yeah, we’re a bunch of amateurs, but who else would have the audacity to take up such a fight? D and R pols are too precious to challenge the status quo, quite frankly — even Claypool. (You know it’s less about principle and more about a calculation that Berrios is going to tank once people get their tax bills.) As for the gift of corrupt and incompetent opponents you seem to be referring to, that’s not really a gift, because the more corrupt and incompetent Ds and Rs get, the more the growing number of politico-tainment reporters take them seriously and write off their opponents, even if their opponents would be a remarkable improvement. So here we have this ridiculous poll…PPP left out a ballot-qualified candidate who, while he didn’t win, he did have statistically significant returns in the last election and has the potential to do better this time. Not only that, the candidates they did include range from unpopular to unknown. Yet, the Green candidate is still left out. Why? They know Whitney exists! Yet they’re still putting out garbage polls? - Ghost - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:34 pm: it is clear that Quinn needs to fire his campaign manager….. oh wait…. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:05 pm: === He’s at 25, not 45. Find me many other governors with approval ratings like that. === Schwarzenegger: 17% approval (March) Oregon, Kulungowski: 34% (March) Washington, Gregoire: 31% (March) I’m not defending the Quinn campaign, I’m just saying he ain’t alone. The Arnold, given his attempts to portray himself as a reformer and outsider, and his state’s economic woes, is probably the best comparison. - Dnstateanon - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:05 pm: Fourth poll with Brady 10 points ahead. - Cousin Ralph - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:10 pm: Not reflected in that poll is the closing week dynamic where the base of one side senses victory and the base on the other, sensing defeat does’nt work as hard, contribute as much, nor turn out to vote with the same intensity. Quinn will hit a few singles, Brady will make an error or two, and narrow the lead. However, in the closing days of the cycle, Republicans will sense victory after years in the wilderness and the DEMs, feeling the fatique of Blago et al., will resign themselves to defeat. I still say Brady by 5. - El Conquistador - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:19 pm: GA Watcher - Blago is already barred from running for Governor…or any other office in Illinois. - Streeterville - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:50 pm: I was a little surprised that Quinn allowed IDOT to hire former Blago personnel chief and IDOC chief of staff…I thought he was trying to purge Blago hires - Wow - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 8:34 pm: Quinn has no respect for the african american community, he is yet to meet with african american organizations, has reduced the number of african americans in leadership and think Sheila Simon’s dead father can carry him over the finish line! he has time to correct this but seeing his behvior so far it is not likely. - The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 10:18 pm: === In general women and independents are very much undecided on Brady. === Yeah, but I’m pretty sure that the women’s vote will eventually lean toward Brady for reasons stated on earlier threads. I also think that people are going to be looking for “comfort” in tradition, and the Brady’s will be able to provide that. Just a guess at this point, but I’m feeling pretty good about it. - MathMan - Thursday, Apr 8, 10 @ 5:55 am: Why does the insider conventional wisdom that says this November is 1994 all over again (Health care passed this time, HELLO!) and that Governor Brady will negotiate an income tax increase with Mike Madigan, and then Princess Lisa will ascend to the Governor’s throne in 2014 seem like Hillary Clinton’s “inevitability” strategy of 2006? The tens of thousands of laid off teachers and other public employees, their families and their friends are not going to fall for that storybook ending now being written at their expense. Not everybody’s grooving on Mike Madigan’s idea of “an American vacation” collecting unemployment especially since the roots of this recession are widely known to be the fault of the leadership of the banking and real estate sectors. Wake up and join the Coffee Party. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.