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Question of the day
Wednesday, Apr 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Democratic Cook County Assessor nominee Joe Berrios was fuming yesterday about Forrest Claypool’s decision to run for assessor as an independent…
Claypool was unrepentant…
* There is another way to look at the Claypool race, however. Right now, there is really nothing on the ballot to bring out the Democrats who voted for David Hoffman in the US Senate primary. The Democratic problems will also likely tamp down much of the new Obama voters from two years ago. Claypool might be able to bring some of those people out. And when they’re at the voting booth, they might then cast their ballots for other Democratic candidates. On the other hand, the Tribune and other media outlets will be hammering Berrios/Madigan non-stop to help Claypool, which will probably suppress Democratic turnout. Cook County plays a huge role in the outcome of statewide races, so any significant impact on turnout and voter behavior needs to be examined. Claypool will undoubtedly have an impact if he gets on the ballot. * The Question: Assuming he gets on the ballot, will the Claypool campaign be an overall net negative to the Democrats this fall or might it be a net positive? Explain.
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- Vibes - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:17 am:
Net positive. Though it will be fun to watch the Sheila Simon TV ads for Berrios.
- just sayin' - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:17 am:
I think your analysis here is sound and outweighs the counter.
“There is another way to look at the Claypool race, however. Right now, there is really nothing on the ballot to bring out the Democrats who voted for David Hoffman in the US Senate primary. The Democratic problems will also likely tamp down much of the new Obama voters from four years ago. Claypool might be able to bring some of those people out. And when they’re at the voting booth, they might then cast their ballots for other Democratic candidates.”
- Dead Head - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:23 am:
Regardless of the effect on either party, if Mr. Claypool is able to win as an independent, that would be a victory for the American people. This one party system (Repulicrats amd Democans) has got to stop. We need more diversity on the ballot.
- Bring Back Boone's - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:23 am:
Overall net negative- Especially for county elections. People who have been cast in the media as reformers, like Preckwinkle, will be between a rock and a hard place. Do they not get involved? Do they support the “reformer,” do they seek support from the CC Democratic Party Chair? It’s going to be a very fine line to walk, and Republicans in the county and state will expose the infight and highlight the dem on dem corruption bash to highlight their own message. (Don’t forget Rod will be on trial then as well)
As far as the liberal wing being more mobilized because Claypool is on the ballot, I don’t buy that argument. Those voters are “repeat offenders” and will be charged up when the rhetoric heats up about Kirk wanting to repeal the health care bill, etc. They would come home regardless.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:27 am:
Net negative. Yes he might pull in some Hoffman voters, however once they have ‘crossed the Rubicon’ to vote for an independent. It might help Quinn a bit, but there is going to a lot of coverage and ads related to Berrios and pay-to-play hurting Democrats in general
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:27 am:
Really, who knows, but I’m going to lean toward Rich’s analysis.
However, Forrest may not be able to excite supporters as he has in the past. Some may be upset at him for running outside the party, and others may feel exhausted with him leaving his Commissioner spot, “running” and then not running for Board President, working for some healtcare company, and now this.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:28 am:
BBB, I wasn’t talking about liberals re Claypool, I was talking about independent Dems. I guess I should’ve been clearer. But Hoffman didn’t run as a lib, by any means.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:29 am:
===Rich’s analysis===
That’s not really my own opinion about what will happen. It’s just something I’m throwing out there that nobody is really talking about in public at the moment.
- Bring Back Boone's - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:34 am:
As far as independent Democrats are concerned what’s stopping them from extrapolating the Claypool argument to other dems? Couldn’t they be less inclined to vote for people like Alexi because their relationships are “too cozy” with banks, and the constant drum beat from the Trib on his bank? I’m not defending Berrios, but a lot of voters have a tendency to make grand arguments and concoct conspiracies to compensate for a lack of understanding of the nuanced. Just look at how many idiots still believe in the “combine.”
- Bring Back Boone's - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:36 am:
meant to write “cozy relationships” with Chicago politicians and mobsters that received loans
- Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:37 am:
Sheesh! Forest(Gump)Claypool vs. Joe (Madigan)Berrios. What a choice! Is there a Republican in the race? Green?
To the question: No effect at all. Maybe some of the Gump’s voters will also go for Alexi but even they know Quinn is a joke.
- ivoted4judy - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:38 am:
Can you say “Governor Brady”? Forrest is a phony, he wont bring out any new voters, he will only hurt the D’s.
- Easy - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:40 am:
net negative. Claypool will win by attacking the cozy relationship Berrios and Madigan have and that will just pummel Madigan’s legislative candidates as they received tens of thousands from Madigan and DPI.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:42 am:
net negative because Committeemen will be under duress to support Berrios (so as not to incur the wrath of Madigan) when they know their constits (most committemen are elected officials, i. e. Sens and Reps)will hold their feet to the fire for going along to get along as they did with their qualified “support” of Todd Stroger…this will rekindle a rash of disgust amongst those likely to vote in the General as they recall the bait and switch which brought the Todder to the CC Presidency…as an act of “screw you” they will vote for Claypool, who will alas, come up short against Mr. Berrios…
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:45 am:
I think anything that increases turnout in Cook County is a net positive for statewide Dems, especially Quinn, He might get the best of both worlds: real organization support plus the indy outsider crowd that he used to be a part of before his good fortune.
If the GOP were thinking Machiavellean, they would ask their current candidate to resign and appoint Claypool as the GOP candidate. There are lots more GOP votes in Cook County if you give them a reason.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:47 am:
Would love to see a quiz of how many people who voted for Cook County Assessor in the last election actually know what it is. I would guess less than 10%.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:48 am:
Net negative. Cook County voters will discover that other political parties exist, and they may start demanding political competition throughout the ballot.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:49 am:
SSCD, while probably true, most people (incuding the media) payed almost zero attention to the county board until the Stroger debacle. Things change and property taxes are a hot, hot issue in Cook.
- the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:53 am:
No real effect on other races one way or the other. The negative attacks on Berrios will be aimed at Berrios, not Democrats in general. The Democrats should be more worried about the Blagojevich trial.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:53 am:
Good point Rich, assuming then that FC makes it on the ballot, then he will probably be a net positive. Independents have to talk about issues and present a compelling reason to not vote for a party. In a very partisan (and theoretically anti-Democratic) environment, any buzz about issues should be helpful.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 11:54 am:
Here’s my suspicion, based entirely on speculation.
Someone is telling Claypool to expect Berrios, Santana or Froehlich to be indicted before the November election.
Claypool has the support of Democrats who believe the Berrios related indictment will happen because the Dems want to have a plan B in case the indictment scenario happens.
The Republican running for this office has proven that she should not be supervising anyone when she was the Evanston Township Assessor. Under her the office simply wouldn’t function.
Will it be good or bad for the Dem Party to have Claypool on the ballot as an independent?
I don’t think it makes much difference. The Republican leaners who are inclined to think the Dems are corrupt will see evidence of corruption whether Claypool is on the ballot or not. I don’t see Claypool’s candidacy altering who will bother to vote in November.
The Dem regulars who thought that Berrios was just going to fly under the radar were wrong. The newspapers showed their scorn for Berrios in the primary and are going to continue to show their scorn for Berrios. This is true whether Claypool runs or not.
Here’s another scenario for you.
Right now there are about ten U.S. candidates trying to qualify for the ballot as independents, mostly to challenge Kirk from the Right.
Claypool’s campaign could cooperate with these campaigns in two ways
1. They can help each other get sigs in Cook County.
2. They can cooperate on the legal strategy to challenge Illinois’ attempt to limit who can gather nominating petition signatures. The case law is pretty strong that bars to who can gather sigs get overturned. This would help all independents.
But Kirk might be better off with three or more challengers from the Right than with just Labno (the Lib) and Stufflebeam (Constitution), both of whom I assume will qualify for the ballot.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:00 pm:
TOA: Agreed! I’m sure there are plenty of folks on both sides of the aisle who want to get out of town for a way extended vacation before the Blago trial begins, and he conracts a possibly fatal attack of diarrhea of the mouth…
- phocion - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:02 pm:
Net negative. Not because Claypool hurts the Democrats per se. But because Berrios and his fellow hacks will continue to make statements such as the one quoted in your QOTD.
Seriously, these same arrogant geniuses who crammed Tod Stroger down the throats of the Democratic Party feel that Claypool is the one hurting the ticket? The regular Democrats’ perpetual corruption and shameless self-interest being put on display is what will hurt the Democrats.
These guys really still believe that just by shouting “choice!” and “racism!” will force all Democrats into lockstep, and forget about the abuses they continue to inflict upon the public trust.
Your days are numbered, Berios and your crowd. Voters are sick of it. It will take Claypool and other courageous souls who take on the calcified party apparatus to actually save it. And to Mr. Berrios, there’s an old expression for you and your fellow hacks who are responsible for any Democratic defections: “Physician, heal thyself.”
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:03 pm:
oops! typo: “contracts”
- Robert - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:04 pm:
Net positive for Democrats, but it is close.
1) Good govt/reformer democrats will almost certainly vote Quinn/Simon over Brady/Plummer.
2) This bloc will generally vote democrat in downballot races.
3) Possible that Topinka can position herself as more independent than machine democrat David Miller, so that may be the exception downballot.
4) Hoffman/Claypool/reform-minded democrats voters will cross over to vote against Alexi.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:06 pm:
From where I’m sitting, it’s definitely a positive. Claypool will get votes of independent Dems and Republicans and any other thinking property owner in Cook County. Putting Joe Berrios in charge of assessments is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house.
Claypool isn’t going to hurt the other Dems on the ticket, just Berrios. And if he gets on the ballot (a big if indeed), he’s going to win this race. This will become the high profile race in Cook County and boost turnout.
As others have noted, it will put certain candidates in a tough spot. Preckwinkle and Quinn are going to be pressed to prop up Berrios, so if there is collateral damage to Dems, it won’t be because of Forrest, it will be because sensible people like Toni and Pat completely lose their minds and actively support Berrios.
Berrios is a cancer on the ticket. Forrest is the chemo.
- been there - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
net negative.
if voters care enough about independent thinking to get out and vote for claypool, they’ll likely vote for the greens too, once they’re looking at the ballot.
- anon - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:15 pm:
Why would independent Democrats get excited about Mayor Daley’s former Chief of Staff?
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:19 pm:
Also if it’s close, there wasn’t much on the ballot before to bring out the exertions of the ward organization people either, for election day. I mean, as is, Berrios wasn’t gonna lose. Toni wasn’t gonna lose. Alexi doesn’t have any jobs to give anybody. If the Quinn - Brady race is tight down to the wire, that one might matter, but odds are that one or the other of them will emerge as the favorite by summer’s end. But now there’s an additional race that might go down to the wire, with Berrios-Claypool. What fragments of a competitive committeeman / ward organization there are may actually have an incentive to work harder on election day. That might help out Alexi, if not Quinn (who may be either smooth sailing or dead weight by November).
Also, we Chicago reformers sometimes have more of a head on us than we’re given credit for. Some of us can gladly vote Claypool-Preckwinkle-Quinn and not lambast Toni and Pat for having to play the game. This is Chicago, after all.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:33 pm:
ZC raises a good point.
Ward organizations may work harder to GOTV to help Berrios.
Could Claypool be prepping a run for mayor? If the whole private sector thing didn’t work out, why wouldn’t Claypool try for mayor?
- KGB - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:35 pm:
Net Neg. Turnout from Dems will be low as it is. IF Claypool pulls out anybody, it will be Dems who are disenchanted with the party, so that will hurt the Dem ticket. No way Claypool’s candidacy helps Dems– and it may very well doom Quinn.
- KGB - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:40 pm:
47th — Berrios is not cancer, he’s par for the course. Most Dems will want to stay home, unless Claypool somehow convinces them to come out. I think the chances are slim that Claypool makes the ballot, slimmer that he attracts enough votes to overcome the Dem committeemen, and slimmest that that vote count will turn the tide for any of the other races– except Quinn, who needs every Dem vote to go his way.
- right side - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:41 pm:
I heard Claypool on the radio today trying to get people to circulate petitions for him. That will be tough and “team madigan” is good at ballot challenges.
But, if he does get on the ballot it will force the dems to spend a lot of money on the race. Berrios’s only hope will be a big tv buy. That will deplete resources from other Dems.
- KGB - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:46 pm:
right side — Berrios has boatloads of cash, as has been noted. Won’t hurt the ticket.
===”Your days are numbered, Berios and your crowd. Voters are sick of it.”===
phocion — you’re downstate, right? Those are nice words, but basically empty dreams north of I-80.
- Roz - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:49 pm:
Net Zero. Claypool won’t even get on thw ballot.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Net positive. Claypool is not a fringe canidate, and has a serious following. This creates a nice put up or shut up moment for dem voters to come out and support their canidate or be silenced, and they have been moving towards being silenced by lack of turnout.
- D.P. Gumby - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 12:55 pm:
Anything that stirs up any voter interest in Cook/Chicago is statistically likely to help the majority of the Democratic ticket, ergo, chances are it will be beneficial…but I’m not putting any money on him getting on the ballot.
- GA Watcher - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:05 pm:
He will be a net negative for Mr. Berrios. Not quite sure he will have an impact on the rest of the Dem ticket. It’s too bad there aren’t other strong Dems or GOPs that are willing to run as independents for some statewide offices (i.e Guv and U.S. Senate).
- phocion - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:06 pm:
KGB, nope. I’m in the heart of progressive Cook County. Keep whistling through the graveyard, though. And since you mention it, I guess the Berrios campaign may get reported downstate, in which case it will hurt Dem chances there.
- Lakefront Liberal - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:24 pm:
Net positive for Dems, because it gives lakefont liberals like me some reason to actually be excited about trying to get people out to vote this November. Prior to Claypool entering the race I was basically going to take a pass on November and focus my energies on the 2011 aldermanics.
However, I am sure we will hear non-stop hand-wringing and concern trolling from all of our so-called-”progressive” Dem leaders about how Forrest’s run is ruining everything for them — the same bull they say every time anyone shows an inkling of challenging them.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:30 pm:
net negative! preckwinckle’s camp has signaled today that it intends to “strongly” support the democratic ticket, which includes berrios.
to read yesterday that claypool thinks he can pull off a win without trashing the dems, was absurb on his part. he’s gonna have to make a strong and damning case against the dems in order to have any sort of a real shot. name id alone is not going to carry him through. if he’s not going to make a case against the dems, then berrios is right–claypool should have run as a dem during the primary.
keats should carpe diem on preckwinckle’s stance to fully support berrios ASAP!
- right side - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:36 pm:
KGB…your right…Berrios “had lots of cash” He spent most of it in the primary. Which made sense at the time, as in Cook County the real election is the Dem primary. Now he needs a good cash infusion to face this unexpected and strong challenge
- Jimmie - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Is there really a “Hoffman vote” out there — I mean other than the members of his own family?
Claypool is a net loser for the Dems. He has the Chicago media eating out of his hand. They love the Madigan-Berrios Evil Cabal storyline and will repeat it all year. That — coupled with the Blago trial — will reinforce the GOP theme that Democratic-controlled Springfield is corrupt.
Has Quinn spoke on the record yet about the Claypool candidacy? In private, he must be cursing his former protege.
- Reformer - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:54 pm:
When Democrats are divided before a general election, that’s good news for Republicans. It probably won’t help the Republican running for assessor, but it might help the Republican runnilng for the Board of Review against Berrios’ fellow commissioner, Brendan Houlihan.
That’s because Claypool attacks Berrios for taking donations from tax appeal lawyers, but so does Houlihan. Claypool attacks Berrios for conspiring to delay the fall tax bills until after the election, but if there is such a conspiracy, it involves Brendan.
- Just a Reader - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:56 pm:
I like horse race questions just as much as the next guy — otherwise I wouldn’t be here, right?
But I think it’s important to keep horse race questions in perspective. Our first question should be, “will the Claypool campaign be an overall net positive for Cook County residents?” I think the answer to that question is an unqualified YES.
I found it very revealing that Berrios’s statement was focused entirely on the effect on The Party. That’s where his focus is, of course: Not the county, the voters, or the taxpayers, but The Party. There’s no crime in that, of course, but I want my government officials working for me, not The Party.
Oh, one more thing:
47th Ward: ===”Berrios is a cancer on the ticket. Forrest is the chemo.”===
Nice line. And dead on.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
positive. because the slugs must be exposed if we are ever
to make progress cleaning out the slime.
- No one to vote for - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
47th - interesting analogy re: Berrios (cancer) and Claypool (chemo). So, cancer will ravage your body and kill you, but chemo, in very small doses *may* cure you. The problem there, of course, is that in larger doses (say, Claypool getting elected), it will kill faster than any cancer. I’m no Berrios apologist…I personally have no one to vote for here, not even Claypool the “reformer.”
ZC - thanks for admitting what every pragmatist knows to be true, that the self-proclaimed “reform” crowd can be as hypocritical as anyone, especially if it serves your interests.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:10 pm:
I found it very revealing that Berrios’s statement was focused entirely on the effect on The Party. That’s where his focus is, of course: Not the county, the voters, or the taxpayers, but The Party. There’s no crime in that, of course, but I want my government officials working for me, not The Party.
Then you have a problem with madigan too, right? maybe party chairs should not be allowed to hold elective offices at the same time? divided loyalties? with the taxpayer/public coming out on the losing end of the divide?
- Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:11 pm:
“4) Hoffman/Claypool/reform-minded democrats voters will cross over to vote against Alexi.”
Except for those of us who just can’t stand Kirk.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:14 pm:
Claypool would bring out voters like myself — I think between guv and senate race they’re already going to the polls.
- gayguy in lakeview - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
Cheryl44 is right. Hoffman voters will not be backing Kirk — especially after his recent statements against the health care bill. We will ask forgiveness — and then vote for Alexi.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:31 pm:
Net positive.
Huge Latino turnout.
The day that Quinn reiterates his endorsement of Berrios over his former deputy Forrest Claypool will be a delightful one in Illinois politics.
In the end, Claypool will finish a distant second or third.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:45 pm:
=== Claypool isn’t going to hurt the other Dems on the ticket, just Berrios. And if he gets on the ballot (a big if indeed), he’s going to win this race. ===
I’d love to see ONE voter model that predicts that there are enough independent voters + progressive Democrats for Claypool or anyone else to win a three-way race in Cook County as the third party/independent candidate, given that (to the best of my knowledge) its never happened.
In 2006, countywide Democratic candidates averaged 74.7% of the vote.
In three-way races for Governor and Treasurer, Dems averaged 66% and the Green Party candidates averaged 6%.
That despite huge numbers of Cook County Democrats voting against Rod and Alexi in the primary.
Again, if you’re going to claim that Claypool is going to beat Berrios, or even has a shot, I’d love to see the data.
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:47 pm:
Yellow Dog is on the money…the Latino vote in Cook County is what will produce a Berrios victory…even if he doess’t completely deserve it due to his “connections”…flex the muscle time for this constituency…this may be the start of a significant trend in Chicago politics…can’t wait for the Census 2010 results…white males in prominent political office please pay attention…
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:50 pm:
No one,
If “refusing to let the perfect be the enemy of the better” = hypocrisy, then: guilty as charged.
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:55 pm:
YDD,
All good points, but I’m assuming -Claypool- has seen some internal data, or has seen a benchmark poll, indicating that he has a shot at this. Otherwise he really has gone crazy.
Past precedent is not fully instructive here, because I can’t remember the last time there was a third-party challenger like Claypool in the mix. They tend to get thumped because a) they possess zero name recognition or fundraising ability; b) the local media pays zero attention to them. Neither of these necessarily apply in Claypool’s specific case.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 2:55 pm:
YDD,
Opinions are like (something Rich will delete): everybody has one. I offered mine. Feel free to disagree with it, but don’t ask me for data.
This is a blog, not the Harvard Debate Society.
- Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:07 pm:
You brie eaters crack me up. Cook County is not the fifth CD. There is no way a Daley stooge like Claypool will be considered a reformer by anyone but you. His whole political career is a lie and anyone who is paying attention knows it. He’s toast even if you can get enough cub fans to sign his petitions which is doubtful since that takes money and hard work. Claypool has little money and never works hard, if at all. He’s a loser.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
47th Ward -
You could have just said you don’t have any facts to back up your opinion and left it at that.
ZC -
I wouldn’t make that leap. Claypool announced for County Board President without conducting a poll, he hasn’t released a poll, and as far as I know he hasn’t raised any of the money needed to conduct a poll. Announcing before you have an executable plan to win may be “crazy” in your book, but in Chicago we call it “moxie.”
Plus, I think there MIGHT be something to the rumors that he’s not running to win, just to get his name out there ahead of David Hoffman’s as a contender for the 2011 mayoral race.
Others argue that he’s been duped by Houlihan into fighting this fight for him, and it puts Houli in position to run for mayor in 2011 without taking any of the body blows. But I think that’s extreme speculation.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
=== This is a blog, not the Harvard Debate Society. ===
Occasionally, you will see facts here.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
YDD,
Feeling a bit more sanctimonius than usual today I see. It’s a QOTD. Get over yourself.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:17 pm:
=== You brie eaters crack me up. Cook County is not the fifth CD. There is no way a Daley stooge like Claypool will be considered a reformer by anyone but you. His whole political career is a lie and anyone who is paying attention knows it. ===
Bill -
as a brie eater, I’m offended.
But I do think you miss part of the point.
Lots of people will believe that Claypool is a reformer because the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times say its true, despite the facts.
That said, the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times readership make up a tiny slice of the electorate, so in the end I don’t think Claypool gets more than 25% of the vote.
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:18 pm:
Bill, the pragmatic reformer standard is again, is he better than Joe “Want to know what your assessment is? Don’t call us, we’ll call you” Berrios.
Plus, given your track record of endorsements, your opposition to Claypool suggests there’s probably something to like about the guy.
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:22 pm:
=== Plus, I think there MIGHT be something to the rumors that he’s not running to win, just to get his name out there ahead of David Hoffman’s as a contender for the 2011 mayoral race.
I could see that. Also to warm up the petition army he’d need. For all this speculation, he’s got a steep climb to get on the ballot; this all could be hypotheticals.
- Bill - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:26 pm:
LOL,
Hoffamn, Houli, or Claypool mayor of Chicago????/
What’s next? Jesse Jackson for President or Pat Quinn getting elected govenor?
ZC,
My record aside, Joe is who he is. He’s never tried to fool anybody. Claypool is a snake who would sell out his best friend for a few bucks or a media event.That’s what makes this reformer stuff so funny. This big tent stuff is ok when they are voting for your candidates but not when these goofs actually go rogue and start running as “independents”.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:36 pm:
YDD, enough. This is a QOTD. You made your point. Move along.
- Anon-Number7 - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 3:39 pm:
Claypool’s appearance on the ballot would undoubtedly increase turnout in Cook County, which would have to be viewed as an overall net positive for Democrats. But not necessarily all Dems would benefit. I suspect a healthy portion suburban Claypool supporters might vote for Mark Kirk vs. Alexi.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 4:29 pm:
Regardless of what happens with Claypool I think Toni P needs to be really careful about all this. She gained a lot of her steam in suburban Cook County by running as an independent thinker and as “somebody different” than the usual machine democrat. Voters bought it and rewarded her. Berrios is not popular there and while she can’t help that he is on the ticket, for Toni to tie herself to him even by verbally supporting the “whole” Dem ticket, is a big mistake and will tend to tarnish her reputation in the burbs.
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 5:53 pm:
NET NEGATIVE
People that come out to vote FOR CLAYPOOL, will also vote for Kirk while they are there.
- Fred Unfriendly - Wednesday, Apr 7, 10 @ 8:09 pm:
“People who have been cast in the media as reformers, like Preckwinkle, will be between a rock and a hard place. Do they not get involved? Do they support the “reformer,” do they seek support from the CC Democratic Party Chair?”
Well, Senator Obama had no problem not supporting the reformer Claypool a couple of years back, and it didn’t seem to hurt him.
We’ll never have a Tea Party candidate in Illinois, but Claypool as an independent could start to attract some of that sentiment, and that probably wouldn’t be bad for Mark Kirk either.
I think a bigger question is, if we get one high-profile independent, will we start to get more– for instance, if Quinn and Brady both have weaknesses as gubernatorial candidates, could some Bloomberg type millionaire be tempted to run? That could be a lot of fun.