* Alexi Giannoulias needs to remember that just because Mark Kirk is in some hot water these days, that doesn’t mean he is somehow absolved. Statements like this are bound to be attacked…
Giannoulias, who was joined Thursday by U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan on a tour of a Chicago community center and at private fundraisers, countered that “the other side” is trying to politicize the economic downturn’s effect on community banks.
There was more to his family bank’s collapse and FDIC seizure than simply ” the economic downturn’s effect on community banks.”
The spokesman said Giannoulias, who also sought an extension for his personal income taxes, wants to have a “more accurate picture of his personal finances, which have changed considerably since the sale of Broadway Bank.”
Sale? Yeah, the bank was sold, but first it failed and was then seized…
DuPage County state’s attorney Joe Birkett claims Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias is deceiving voters by calling the takeover of his family’s bank a sale and criticized him for not releasing financial information. Birkett said Thursday that he was speaking on behalf of Republican Mark Kirk’s U.S. Senate campaign.
Um, Joe, how about practicing those lines before you talk? You rendered those gems useless for the teevee and radio.
And even though the Sun-Times editorial today was based on incomplete information and was, therefore, ludicrous, I still agree with this part…
It comes down to this:
Mark Kirk gets carried away when talking about his accomplishments, but he does have accomplishments to get carried away with. He was in fact a teacher, even if not for long. He is in fact a respected officer in the Navy Reserve.
Giannoulias, in contrast, worked for his dad for four years at the family bank. Then he was elected state treasurer. And this spring, the bank went bust.
[Section deleted and moved to a different post for clarity.]
Giannoulias and Quinn are getting a lower level of support from people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 than any other Democratic candidates across the country we’ve polled on since the beginning of April, and it’s not even close. Only 50% of Obama supporters are currently committed to voting for Giannoulias and just 48% say they’ll cast their votes for Quinn.
No other Democrat we’ve polled on recently has been getting less than 60% of the Obama vote- the one at that level is Roxanne Conlin, running what has to be seen as an incredibly uphill battle against Chuck Grassley in Iowa. Even politicians with sub 30 approval ratings (Chet Culver at 68%) or who are pretty much completely unknown (Vincent Sheheen at 70%, Rodney Glassman at 65%) are doing a far better job of locking up the Democratic base vote.
There is a partial explanation…
Obama did way better in 2008 here than any Democratic presidential candidate in many a year. He scored a higher percentage than Lyndon Johnson did in 1964, which is pretty darned amazing.
So, as politics returns to a bit more normal level here and voters return to their more traditional behaviors, it’s understandable that Democratic candidates wouldn’t be doing nearly as well with Obama voters as Obama did.
Even so, those numbers are just horrible for both Quinn and Giannoulias. Horrible.
PPP’s most recent national survey found that while Obama had a positive approval rating at 48/47, only 33% of voters were more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by him while 48% said support from Obama would make them less likely to vote for someone. That’s because only 64% of voters who approve of the President say his endorsement would make them more inclined to vote for a candidate, but 91% who disapprove say Obama’s support makes it less likely they would vote for one of his preferred candidates.
To put into perspective the perils of having Obama out on the campaign trail, consider the numbers in his home state of Illinois. Even there just 26% of voters say they’d be more inclined to back an Obama endorsed candidate while 40% say his support would be more likely to turn them against a candidate. It’s another example where the intensity of feeling about Obama is much stronger on the GOP side- 80% of Republicans say they’re less likely to vote for someone with the President’s support while only 49% of Democrats say they’re more likely to. If Obama’s support isn’t a net positive in Illinois it’s hard to know where he should be deployed.
The Illinois results with the national results in parentheses…
* Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
53% Approve (48%)
41% Disapprove (47%)
6% Not Sure (5%)
* Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by President Obama, or
does it not make a difference either way?
26% More likely (33%)
40% Less likely (48%)
34% Doesn’t make a difference either way (17%)
* Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Bill Clinton, or does it
not make a difference either way?
25% More likely
38% Less likely
37% Doesn’t make a difference either way
* Do you have a higher opinion of Bill Clinton or
Barack Obama?
32% Bill Clinton
39% Barack Obama
30% Not sure
* Related…
* Whitley adds more praise for Quinn — ‘Breath of fresh air’
* Senator’s e-mail directs donors to call district office: State Sen. Michael Noland of Elgin asked supporters recently to chip in “$25, $50, $75 or $100″ to his campaign via a blast e-mail, then he told them to call his taxpayer-funded district office with any questions.
I really hate to pile on poor Mark Kirk and his sad need to exaggerate, but guns are illegal in England. I doubt teachers in even the toughest state schools there worry about guns. Knives, bombs, maybe, but not guns.
It normally takes some sort of dynamite to move entrenched liberals from the Democrats, and entrenched conservatives from the Republicans. In our state, that means an automatic advantage to the Democrats in November.
HOWEVER, Obama’s divisive presidency has lost Independents, resulting in a new look at Republicans. I also think that Independents are of a mood to throw ALL the bums out, and we are seeing anti-incumbancy across the nation. I think that these two factors are net negatives for the Democrats.
Current close polling in many races indicates that the plusses and minuses are hanging in almost perfect balance. State-wide, all candidates cannot afford to lose their bases. Expect big efforts this summer to cement them.
Outreach to the independent is critical. I watch the campaigns to see whose message will resonate best with them. The Independents that swung to Obama are now available, not low hanging fruit but watching and waiting.
Word, I am really curious as to who in the heck is really running these campaigns. I also have to wonder if Kirk and Alexi are listening to their advisors. After five consecutive, tough Congressional campaigns, I assumed Kirk would be much more adapt at handling a mini crisis. Apparently, I was wrong. And, with Alexi probably paying his top staff boku bucks, he isn’t really getting much return for his investment. Of course, I’m typing off-the-cuff.
Sold, seized, whatever. Both words start with the letter “s,” I can’t believe anyone is splitting hairs over this. (snark)
- grand old partisan - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:13 pm:
It really shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the “Obama effect” has faded so rapidly in Illinois. His relationship to this state has always been uniquely tenuous. He isn’t quite a “favorite son” because, well, he just plain isn’t a “son” of Illinois. And to the extent that an outsider can achieve icon status to claim a city/state as his own, you have to (a) be in the public consciousness for a significant enough amount of time and (b) contribute to the improvement of the city/state’s reputation on a substantial level – neither of which I’d argue he ever did. Illinois was a nice way for Obama to tie himself to Lincoln’s legacy during the election. He won’t be able to use the Lincoln connection as much in a re-election run because the reality hasn’t matched the potential by any objective measure. It will be hard for any local Dems to grab his coattails when he’s clearly intent on keeping them out of the Illinois mud.
“Look for the “Arne Duncan Bump” to give Alexi three or four extra points in the polls. A.D. is pure magic on the stump.”
Seriously? Who are these voters that will support Alexi because of Duncan? The party faithful will be there for Alexi, and I doubt that Obama’s education secretary will make much impact anywhere outside Chicago, or among independent voters looking at the economy and jobs as the prime issue in the campaign.
Duncan’s affect in Chicago will be swamped by Daley’s GOTV effort.
I thought Illinois had a sore loser law. I see our old friend Andy Martin filed today to run for the US Senate seat for the Illinois Reform Party. Doubt he’ll get on the ballot, but good for some laughs none the less.
Goodness, LT. It implies no such thing other than what it says. Remove your tinfoil body suit, please. And your use of the words “logical” and “thinker” in your handle is pure irony, albeit unintentioned.
- circularfiringsquad - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 5:11 pm:
I’m not sure a national survey reflects what President Obama’s support will be worth in Illinois. If he decides to actively engage on behalf of PQ and Alexi, I think it will carry quite a bit of weight here.
And equally, important I think, I believe every bit as many Ds will go home on election day as Rs, probably more.
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 9:56 pm:
Forgot to mention the beauty of BrickheadJoe back in action. What a quinella. A Bush and the Brick!
Thanks again NoTaxBill & NoReturnPlumster
You’re the best
Keep it up
Fire,Aim,Ready
- lakeview - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
I really hate to pile on poor Mark Kirk and his sad need to exaggerate, but guns are illegal in England. I doubt teachers in even the toughest state schools there worry about guns. Knives, bombs, maybe, but not guns.
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 1:45 pm:
It normally takes some sort of dynamite to move entrenched liberals from the Democrats, and entrenched conservatives from the Republicans. In our state, that means an automatic advantage to the Democrats in November.
HOWEVER, Obama’s divisive presidency has lost Independents, resulting in a new look at Republicans. I also think that Independents are of a mood to throw ALL the bums out, and we are seeing anti-incumbancy across the nation. I think that these two factors are net negatives for the Democrats.
Current close polling in many races indicates that the plusses and minuses are hanging in almost perfect balance. State-wide, all candidates cannot afford to lose their bases. Expect big efforts this summer to cement them.
Outreach to the independent is critical. I watch the campaigns to see whose message will resonate best with them. The Independents that swung to Obama are now available, not low hanging fruit but watching and waiting.
Great fun, wot?
- wordslinger - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
Not a lot of guns being flashed in London, especially back then, and certainly not by rich kids. And now Alexi wants to talk about community banks?
What is wrong with these two guys? Do they ever know when to clam up?
- Team Sleep - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:05 pm:
Word, I am really curious as to who in the heck is really running these campaigns. I also have to wonder if Kirk and Alexi are listening to their advisors. After five consecutive, tough Congressional campaigns, I assumed Kirk would be much more adapt at handling a mini crisis. Apparently, I was wrong. And, with Alexi probably paying his top staff boku bucks, he isn’t really getting much return for his investment. Of course, I’m typing off-the-cuff.
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:06 pm:
There are firms that specialize in executive communication. I’m thinking neither of them used one, and if they did, it was lousy.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
Sold, seized, whatever. Both words start with the letter “s,” I can’t believe anyone is splitting hairs over this. (snark)
- grand old partisan - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:13 pm:
It really shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the “Obama effect” has faded so rapidly in Illinois. His relationship to this state has always been uniquely tenuous. He isn’t quite a “favorite son” because, well, he just plain isn’t a “son” of Illinois. And to the extent that an outsider can achieve icon status to claim a city/state as his own, you have to (a) be in the public consciousness for a significant enough amount of time and (b) contribute to the improvement of the city/state’s reputation on a substantial level – neither of which I’d argue he ever did. Illinois was a nice way for Obama to tie himself to Lincoln’s legacy during the election. He won’t be able to use the Lincoln connection as much in a re-election run because the reality hasn’t matched the potential by any objective measure. It will be hard for any local Dems to grab his coattails when he’s clearly intent on keeping them out of the Illinois mud.
- The End Is Near - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:24 pm:
Look for the “Arne Duncan Bump” to give Alexi three or four extra points in the polls. A.D. is pure magic on the stump.
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:43 pm:
The End Is Near - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:24 pm:
“Look for the “Arne Duncan Bump” to give Alexi three or four extra points in the polls. A.D. is pure magic on the stump.”
Seriously? Who are these voters that will support Alexi because of Duncan? The party faithful will be there for Alexi, and I doubt that Obama’s education secretary will make much impact anywhere outside Chicago, or among independent voters looking at the economy and jobs as the prime issue in the campaign.
Duncan’s affect in Chicago will be swamped by Daley’s GOTV effort.
- train111 - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:48 pm:
I thought Illinois had a sore loser law. I see our old friend Andy Martin filed today to run for the US Senate seat for the Illinois Reform Party. Doubt he’ll get on the ballot, but good for some laughs none the less.
train111
- The End Is Near - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 3:34 pm:
Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 2:43 pm:
“Seriously?”
No. Definitely not.
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 3:37 pm:
I guess I need the tags…
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 3:38 pm:
Wow, I put “sarcasm” and “/sarcasm”in
- Ghost - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 3:56 pm:
We are one of the larger States population wise, yet we seem to be struggling to come up with a couple iable candiates for either party.
- Logical Thinker - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 4:20 pm:
Just the title of this entry is embarrassing:
“You’re not out of the woods YET, Alexi”
Does this imply that at some point in the future Alexi “will be out of the woods?”
Wonder why?
- Cincinnatus - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 4:26 pm:
Perhaps Alexi lives on Pandora or Endor and will never get out of the woods, Logical…
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 4:47 pm:
Goodness, LT. It implies no such thing other than what it says. Remove your tinfoil body suit, please. And your use of the words “logical” and “thinker” in your handle is pure irony, albeit unintentioned.
- circularfiringsquad - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 5:11 pm:
Gotta love. Bringing. A bush to IL. Next? Cheney!
- steve schnorf - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 7:24 pm:
I’m not sure a national survey reflects what President Obama’s support will be worth in Illinois. If he decides to actively engage on behalf of PQ and Alexi, I think it will carry quite a bit of weight here.
And equally, important I think, I believe every bit as many Ds will go home on election day as Rs, probably more.
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Jun 18, 10 @ 9:56 pm:
Forgot to mention the beauty of BrickheadJoe back in action. What a quinella. A Bush and the Brick!
Thanks again NoTaxBill & NoReturnPlumster
You’re the best
Keep it up
Fire,Aim,Ready