There is no doubt whatsoever that Republicans in this state have every reason to cheer and Democrats have all the reasons in the world to grumble.
Republicans have a fired up, angry base that can’t wait to vote. The Democratic base is morose, embarrassed at its party’s failures and is in no mood to even think about voting.
Numerous pollsters and prognosticators have pointed to the eery similarities between the public’s mood now and at the same point in the huge Republican year of 1994 - the last time we had a Democratic president facing his first midterm election.
The latest national CNN/Opinion Research poll found that the “generic” congressional ballot was pretty much the same as it was in August 1994. Voters favor unnamed Republican candidates over Democrats 48 percent to 45 percent, compared with 46-44 in 1994. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey had the national generic ballot favoring Republicans at 45-42.
Half of all voters told CNN’s pollster that they likely are to vote for a candidate who would opposes President Barack Obama. Back in ‘94, 51 percent said they wanted candidates who opposed President Bill Clinton. Obama’s approval rating is also just three points higher than Bill Clinton’s was back then.
In 1994, the Illinois House Republicans rode their party’s national tidal wave to a 13-seat pickup and a long-sought majority. The House Republicans need 12 seats to take the majority away from the Democrats this time. So, there’s a lot of hope out there that they can pull it off.
Some real differences exist between now and 1994, particularly here in Illinois. For instance, back then Illinois had straight-party voting. It was pretty easy to just walk into the ballot booth, punch the Republican number and walk out. The Republicans got rid of that just after the Democrats took back the House two years later.
Also, the state legislative district map 16 years ago was drawn by the Republicans. The current map was drawn by the Democrats and is way more sophisticated because computer technology advanced so far in the intervening decade.
The national Republican landslide of 1994 took the Democrats completely by surprise. They simply had never seen anything like it. Even during the Ronald Reagan sweep of 1984, the Illinois Democrats beat a Republican U.S. Senator. Now that they’ve seen what can happen, the Democrats claim they’ve made far more preparations than they did in ‘94.
Then there’s Barack Obama. The president is from Illinois, so the state gives him a higher approval rating than just about anywhere else, and tends to support his policies in larger numbers.
Back in early August 1994, a Chicago Tribune poll had Republican Jim Edgar beating Dawn Clark Netsch by a mind-blowing 35 points. Netsch ended up losing by almost 30 points, taking the House Democratic majority down with her.
The latest statewide poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports has Republican state Sen. Bill Brady leading Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by 13 points - 48-35. I’ve seen another internal candidate poll taken very recently that had Brady’s lead slightly higher. A Democratic poll reportedly has Quinn trailing by seven points. Let’s say it’s somewhere in the middle, but that means there’s no good news here for the governor.
So, could Quinn take everybody else down with him?
If you figure that Netsch’s 30-point loss helped intensify the 1994 GOP landslide, then maybe Quinn’s bad numbers aren’t enough. But I’ve seen some recent private polling on voter intensity that ought to frighten the Democrats right down to their bones. Their party’s biggest lead is among people who say they aren’t interested in voting.
Plus, downstate and collar county voters appear the angriest these days, and that could really hurt a lot of the state’s freshman Democratic congressmen and several legislators in tough fights. Any Democrat involved in a race that looks even a little close should be worried sick right now.
Quinn isn’t helping matters much with the campaign that he and his allies have been running. The Democratic Governors Association has spent almost $2 million on TV ads whacking Bill Brady as an extremist, but Rasmussen’s poll of 750 likely voters taken August 9th showed that more voters thought Quinn was an extremist than Brady.
According to the poll, 32 percent thought Brady’s views were “extreme,” while 38 percent thought Quinn’s views were extreme.
He’d better do something quick before he pulls a Netsch and tanks his entire party.
In a recent Tribune/WGN poll, 46 percent of suburban residents said they oppose legalizing same-sex marriage, while 40 percent approve and 14 percent have no opinion.
When asked their opinions on civil unions — which would provide same-sex couples with many of the same legal rights as marriage — the results switch: 54 percent of suburban residents favor legalizing same-sex civil unions, compared with 33 percent who would oppose such a law. When city residents are included, the results remain nearly the same.
The poll shows the Chicago area falls largely in line with national opinions on gay marriage, an issue that has received considerable attention lately after a federal judge in California declared that state’s ban on gay marriage unconstitutional. Same-sex marriages could resume as soon as Wednesday in California, and the judge’s decision is expected to make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court. […]
The overall opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, when city respondents are factored in, is split: 42 percent oppose it, 42 percent support it and 15 percent have no opinion. The Market Shares Corp. telephone poll of 800 male and female heads of household from the six-county Chicago area has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:19 am:
Good column Rich. I remember 1994 quite well, and while everyone knew it was going to be a bad year for the Democrats, nobody knew how bad it actually was until it was over. An utter electoral bloodbath, a near collapse of the party, a good old fashioned smack down.
Now we have something to compare the current climate to, and as you note, there are similarities and differences between now and then. The best thing is that 1994 is not a distant memory, for me it’s still an open wound.
I think you’ll see the Democrats more prepared this year than in 1994. I think it’s one of the key reasons that Madigan signed-on to the coordinated campaign after going it alone for the past several cycles.
2010 will not be the finest year for the Democrats, especially in Illinois, but I think we’ll escape with less damage done than 1994.
- LES - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:35 am:
good news for dems leader Tom Cross
- Bill - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:35 am:
I’m thinking that it might not be so bad if the repubs take over the House. Madigan would probably pull a Pate and quit rather than suffer the indignity of being minority leader. The republicans would screw everything up even worse just like they did in 95. Brady would be a real joke in office and when we won the House back maybe we could get a Speaker who was at least responsive to the people who supported him and maybe even the general voting public.
One man rule was ok when it was working. It is a disaster now.
- western illinois - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:38 am:
The regional differences are stark Dems lead in all other regions except for south. Lets say they lose the 20 or so white conservadem seats there Then the US house comes down to PA and OH.
I agree with 47th ward I dont see a changover in the IL legislature. Can you imagine Bill Brady and the Dem legislature? With a narrow win on his part?
- Deep South - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:39 am:
The Dems need to portray all Republicans as intolerant, extremist Baggies. Make it a clear choice. And if the Baggies take over, let ‘em try to govern. It’ll be high-larious.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:41 am:
On Friday’s blog, I forget which thread, there was audio of Quinn saying that he created 60k jobs in 2010, more than any other midwestern governer, I found that to be a bit curious. Let me be frank in saying that I think Quinn fudges numbers, and will say anything to get elected, and I find that more than disturbing. i’m reminded of his camp’s and his recent announcement bold of $5.1 million raised in campaign fund-raising. only for that to be whittled down to $3.2, if that, upon closer inspection.
no doubt Quinn has already cut an ad touting 60k jobs created and hope to use that in a late bid to rally support. i sure hope the 60k number stands up to scruitiny. i’m guessing included in that are census and other temp jobs, and i sure would like to see a breakdown of the 60k that he has claimed and will undoubtedly be touting in an ad.
- Garison - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:45 am:
Dem House candidates appear to be trying to opt out of being part of any coordinated campaign with the top of the ticket. It is everyone for themselves.
Six to eight dem house losses is expected. The additional four will be difficult but Quinn is so utterly incompentent that he might just provide what the republicans need.
- Deep South - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:50 am:
===I think Quinn fudges numbers, and will say anything to get elected===
I’m sure Brady wouldn’t do anything like that.
- Louis Howe - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:51 am:
I had an up close and personal experience with the 1994 election, and in my opinion, we are worse off in 2010 in many respects, like the economy. Obama campaigned on “Change You Can Believe In,” then filled out his White House team with ex-Clintonites like Rahm, Summers and Hillary and continued Bush’s economic policies. Clinton campaigned on “It’s the Economy, Stupid” and then took on getting Gays in the military. Democrats have done a miserable job the last 30 years standing up for working families and fighting Reagan’s radical market fundamentalism. With the Great Recession, I am afraid, democrats have crossed the tipping point and finally squandered FDR’s legacy. Obama came into office naively wanting to establish a Lincolnesque “Team of Rivals” approach to governing. Instead, by adopting his predecessors’ economic teams and policies Obama is becoming a 21st Century Hoover. Unlike, FDR who delivered real change and won four presidential elections, Democrats are about to get a well deserved thumping at the polls for failing to focus on economic recovery and real reform. In Illinois, it’s only going to be worse.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 10:57 am:
I think there folks out there who are ticked off to no end, rightly, wrongly, whatever but they are going to vote.
The question is who is going to stay home.
- paddyrollingstone - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:00 am:
Great column. One important consideration that I did neet see mentioned is that Lisa Madigan and Jesse White are essentially not being challeneged by the GOP. I would think that the presence of those two on the ballot will act somewhat as a stopper. Considering that in 1994, Al Hofeld was running for AG and Pat Quinn was running for SOS, I would think White & Madigan are a heck of a lot better for the Ds than Hofeld & Quinn - particularly as Quinn was running against George Ryan & his well-oiled machine.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:07 am:
paddyrollingstone, you’re absolutely right. One can only do so much with 750 words, but that probably should’ve been in there. The Dems have a couple of “stoppers” near the top that they didn’t have in 94.
- the dark horse - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:10 am:
I would add, too, that 1994 came on the heals of George H.W. Bush leaving office, while 2010 comes on the heals of George W. Bush. I am not blaming all things on W, but certainly some of the things- and I am not the only Illinois voter who feels that way. There is enough bad-tasting W residue to make a difference.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:13 am:
DeepSouth, Quinn has been in the statewide eye a whole lot longer than Brady. Until last year, Quinn had very solid reputation for being honest. I think it is very unfortunate that his word is no longer his bond. Were it, he’s have quite a legacy.
- Conservative Veteran - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:20 am:
The Dark Horse, I don’t like George W. Bush because he’s too liberal. His tax cuts were too small, and his spending increases were too large. He signed the No Child Left Behind Act, which violates the 10th Amendment. He signed the McCain-Feingold law, which violates the 1st Amendment.
- Bill - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:22 am:
==Until last year, Quinn had very solid reputation for being honest.==
Only with people who didn’t know him.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:22 am:
Great column. The poll on same-sex marriage, civil unions and gay rights should go a long way to reminding some on the right that Illinois voters aren’t often as hung up on such a single issue as the right would like us to believe. And while Lisa Madigan and Jesse White may be stoppers, are people really going to punch “D” on their ballots because of their love for the AG & SOS? Maybe, but not enough to help the D’s.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:26 am:
TS, the point is that once voters get going with that straight voting, they tend not to slow down. Lisa and Jesse will make them slow down a bit.
- Skeeter - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:34 am:
What is interesting about this is that if Lisa Madigan had run for Gov or Senate, most of the problems noted would be significantly reduced.
With her, Dems would have had a reason to be enthused which would have carried down the ticket.
The other problem is that a few of the Dems in Congress, notably Bean, appear to running scared and that is going to hurt enthusiasm among Dems. She’s cast some very questionable votes recently, with the result that some of the strong Dems that I know are now refusing to write checks for any Dem running for Congress. People are just throwing their hands up in the hair and writing them all off.
Personally, as a Cook County Dem, I likely will go in and vote for Alexi, Preckwinkle, David Miller and my own State Rep and State Senator. The rest? I don’t know and I really don’t care.
- Ghost - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:35 am:
IL always seemed to work bst with a dem GA and a repub Gov. From my perspective, I think there are others who only follows politics tangently, but that concept strikes a very simple cord - balance.
That said the GOP canidates are running on some suicide promises. If they mak the cuts they are promising they will be in for one term. if they dont make the cuts and raise taxes, they will be hammered at the next election. This could be a be careful what you wish for moment for the GOP. LMad could be the cnaidate for Gov in 4 years.
- Anonymous - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:40 am:
==The Dems need to portray all Republicans as intolerant, extremist Baggies==
Yeah, Deep South. Great idea to “portray” them as such. So what that it’s completely untrue.
Jesse White and his tumblers OTOH were deep into central Illinois Republican territory over the weekend. Lots of appreciation and respect going back and forth in both directions. That’s the way it’s supposed to be done and why Jesse wins handily time after time without breaking a sweat.
- Ghost - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:49 am:
If IL cleans up its politics Rich will have to give up the BMW and drive a Kia soul….
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:50 am:
The BMW is paid for.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 11:56 am:
== If IL cleans up its politics Rich will have to give up the BMW and drive a Kia soul…. ==
You kidding, if politics and government ever made sense in this state you would need Rich more than ever because no one would be able to understand that without a scorecard.
- Ghost - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 12:27 pm:
Politics and government in IL make sense, its just not common sense, more like Inception… we are kept guessing until the end…and we are nowhwere near the end.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
Rich, the only fault I have with your analysis is your thinking that social issues matter in this election. They do not. When you’re out on the stump, the single issue people talk about is the economy. Whether its jobs, spending, taxes, deficits, budgets, it’s just a variation on this theme. I have seen crowds that were juiced up when the candidate talked about the economic topics, and became distracted and bored whenever the candidate deviated from the theme. I have seen this in numerous speeches by numerous candidates.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
C, I think you may be only part right. There is a significant number of people out there who have not been terribly negatively affected by this recession. IF you haven’t lost your job, aren’t close to retirement (investments) and haven’t needed or wanted to sell your house, life is pretty much as usual. That’s a lot of people. In general they are probably better educated than average, and generally in above average income brackets.
Those sorts of people are generally more moderate and more politically independent. As long as candidates don’t seem bizarre on economic issues, then social issues may well be deal makers or breakers. I just don’t know how many of them there are.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 3:39 pm:
steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 1:31 pm:
The hook for your demographic is if they have kids. These poor kids will be paying back this debt for decades to come.
- Deep South - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 3:53 pm:
===Yeah, Deep South. Great idea to “portray” them as such. So what that it’s completely untrue.===
It may be untrue…but that’s besides the point. Perception is reality. And wait till the Beck caravan rolls into Illinois and all the big GOP names “have no choice” but to be seen with him. Yes, perception is reality…the Dems need to take advantage of this - big time.
- (618) Democrat - Monday, Aug 16, 10 @ 7:01 pm:
So 2010 is shaping up to be like 1994?
I was around in 1994.
A lot has changed since 1994. Back then there was no internet, face book, you tube, twitter, email, cell phones, and texting just to name a few.
It will never be like 1994 again.
- Peggy Far South of I-80 - Tuesday, Aug 17, 10 @ 12:08 am:
Re the poll: The polling was just of Chicago metro, which I concede encompasses much of the voter rolls of IL. That said…
In every state, including CA, where it was put to the people, marriages that would be recognized by the state have been restricted to 1 man and 1 woman, consistent with Western Civ tradition, and largely consistent with the heterosexual nature of marriage across times, places and religious/moral codes. [Some cultures of course have been or remain polygamous today, but heterosexual, however.]
The public in general don’t have a good understanding of the purpose of marriage and that it is more than the expression of 2 people’s feelings. When it’s reduced to that, sure, go ahead, marry your dog or sister. I won’t argue the point here, but the anthropology has always been rather clear about hetero marriage and its social benefits.
It’s not about what people do on their own to attain their view of happiness, but about what social benefits are there to various possible unions that a state should recognize them.
- Brennan - Tuesday, Aug 17, 10 @ 8:35 am:
Nothing fires up the Democratic base like a vote for Lisa Madigan and Jesse White.