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Actually, they’re about the same with conservatives
Tuesday, Sep 14, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Dennis Byrne writes…
I’ve seen this speculation before among conservatives, so I’m not trying to single out Byrne here. But the argument doesn’t really hold up if you look deeper into the polls. Byrne was referring to the most recent Rasmussen polling, so let’s look at the pollster’s crosstabs, with leaners, among conservatives…
It’s 75 percent of conservatives for Brady without leaners and 69 percent for Kirk. Little to no difference in the split. Public Policy Polling’s latest crosstabs for conservatives…
Again, Kirk is doing slightly worse than Brady, but not all that much. It certainly doesn’t explain the huge difference in their respective races with their Democratic opponents. As you already know, Rasmussen has the leads at 13% for Brady and 4% for Kirk (both totals include leaners). PPP had Brady winning by 9 and Giannoulias ahead by 2. * So, why is there such a difference between the head-to-heads? Well, for one, Quinn is a bumbling incumbent in an anti-incumbent year who ran twice with Rod Blagojevich, has a $13 billion deficit and 10+ percent unemployment rate and is encumbered with a 63 percent job disapproval rating. The Senate seat is open, so neither men are defined as incumbents and Kirk has been damaged as much so far by his own problems as Giannoulias has. Brady is still mostly an unknown quantity, and people don’t seem to care because Quinn is so bad. * The crosstabs on party and gender are kinda all over the place. Rasmussen has Brady getting far more Republican support than Kirk, but PPP has it almost the same. Rasmussen also has Brady getting much more support from women than Kirk, but, again, PPP has it much closer. Your thoughts? …Adding… The Sun-Times has now posted a story about the latest Rasmussen poll, which was released yesterday.
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- shore - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
Alexi and Brady have messages, Kirk and Quinn do not.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
shore scores
- Been There - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:14 pm:
===Well, for one, Quinn is a bumbling incumbent in an anti-incumbent year who ran twice with Rod Blagojevich, has a $13 billion deficit and 10+ percent unemployment rate and is encumbered with a 63 percent job disapproval rating.===
Well, when you put it that way it makes me wonder what I’m doing still supporting this guy.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:21 pm:
How do you measure a Senator? Different races different levels of government. One is an executive and one is a legislator.
Not apples and oranges.
At this point Kirk is helped by Brady.for the edge against Alexi.
- CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:24 pm:
Ever wonder how races would turn out without all this mindless poll reporting….poll is taken, poll reported, media brightens coverage of leader, media assesses non-leader impact on others, funders move away.
It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Media thinks all amount to covering a race.
NOT.
Brady wanders around with Rudy the G, no one tries to hold him accountable for his empty budget plan or his cut the minimum wage or freeze the teachers. No one stops to add it all up and find out the old GOP bait and switch is back on the horizon
- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:32 pm:
I have seen a few Alexi ad’s, and Alexi is out actively campaigning.
I hav seen several brady ad’s and brady is out campaigning.
From the Quinn side I hear the still ness of crickets and cath a few cut ribbons blowing by unnoticed on the wind.
Quinn has no real campaign presence.
- Luke - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:32 pm:
Hard to argue with anyone Rich said here.
- Conservative Veteran - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:33 pm:
About half of the Republicans, I know, refuse to vote for Rep. Kirk, because he’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage, and anti-Iraq surge. Those Republicans will vote for a third-party candidate.
- fedup dem - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:55 pm:
Rich, why do you continue to shove these biased Rasmussen polls down our throats? I hope you will be willing to show how off-base they were on November 3.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:57 pm:
FD, nothing is being shoved down anybody’s throats. If you don’t like it, say so. But nobody forces you to be here.
Also, he and PPP have been fairly close. It’s the Tribune which appears to be the outlier.
- shore - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:01 pm:
Brady:I’m a businessman who will cut government and grow jobs.
Alexi:I’m a failed banker who will support obama and create jobs.
Kirk:I’m a (fill in the blank depending on the audience) who will do (fill in the idea of the day) and create (fill in the jobs/taskforce/study group of the day).
last 3 days were a perfect example-quad cities agenda, then bouncing to rudy and some gang thing, no line connecting the dots to create a picture for voters and they are creating their own and its not helping him.
- Downstate - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:07 pm:
Kirk’s positions on social and economic issues still remain a tough pill for conservatives to follow, so that he lags behind Brady isn’t surprising.
Five months ago, a conservative county office holder down here made the statement that he would never vote for Kirk. He’s now his county coordinator and carrying his banner in local parades.
He still doesn’t like him, but a Senate Majority Leader Reid (or Durbin) is enough to put emotions aside. Between the two major candidates (and the only two that has a chance), Kirk is by far the most conservative candidate even though he’s not really a conservative. As more and more conservatives and Tea Party activists realize that, Kirk’s numbers will continue to solidify.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:08 pm:
“Quinn is a bumbling incumbent in an anti-incumbent year who ran twice with Rod Blagojevich, has a $13 billion deficit and 10+ percent unemployment rate and is encumbered with a 63 percent job disapproval rating.”
So, what your saying is we’ve finally got passed that tax raiser label, eh?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:11 pm:
lol
- shore - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:15 pm:
every day on this thing, conservatives from downstate say how there’s an open revolt against the congressman and how no republican will support him. Either you’re not getting out or your fellow conservatives are deliberately lying to pollsters because the numbers do not back you up.
- shore - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:15 pm:
every day on this thing, conservatives from downstate say how there’s an open revolt against the congressman and how no republican will support him. Either you’re not getting out or your fellow conservatives are deliberately lying to pollsters because the numbers do not back you up.
- IlliniMan - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:15 pm:
Me and my wife were discussing last night if to vote for Kirk, I look at Kirk and I see Castle from Delaware… I am leaning atm to not vote in the senate race. It is hard to vote for someone who does not represent your core beliefs about government
- Tom - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:20 pm:
since the site is firewalled, I can’t see…but what are the raw numbers? If the splits and crosses are small, those percentages don’t mean squat.
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:35 pm:
Kirk will go with whatever’s popular, right now that’s running as a conservative. You can no more trust which way he’ll swing in the wind, than you can trust his version of his military and political records. Conservatives will vote for him, though, just to have another Republican vote on the Senate.
- Candy - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:47 pm:
The real problem in Illinois is Mike Madigan; that’s the root of the evil.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:48 pm:
Rod? Is that you?
lol
Seriously, people who claim that American politicians are “evil” should be avoided like the lunatics they are. Stop it or go away.
- Skirmisher - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:55 pm:
Wensicia hit it on the head. In the end, those of a conservative bent will come around to Kirk because they would rather have a liberal junior Republican senator taking orders from a conservative Senate leader than a liberal Democrat senator taking orders from Harry Reid. Conservatives are grumbling now but they really have no choice.
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 5:11 pm:
The GOP base is definitely with Brady. Whether he deserves that blind loyalty is another question.
I’ve seen the polls and your points are valid Rich. But the anecdotal evidence I see does tell me conservatives have a much different view of Kirk than Brady. Republicans will speak ill of Kirk. Maybe they simply aren’t completely leveling with the pollsters. Don’t know.
This all turns the conventional wisdom on its head, i.e. “only a moderate Republican can win statewide in Illinois” - if Brady does do much better than Kirk on election day.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 5:28 pm:
just saying,
This year, in this cycle, in this environment, a conservative can win state-wide. It’s a rare cycle, but true. Roskam should have run. Sigh…
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 5:38 pm:
===This year, in this cycle, in this environment, a conservative can win state-wide.===
Yes, Brady could win. But, will he have any more authority than Quinn’s had as governor?
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 6:00 pm:
As a very wise man once told me, all elections are “compared to who?”
- storman norman - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 6:02 pm:
Republicans seem very united this year. Kirk Dillard has helped this by not being a poor loser after the primary. I believe the election will be a lot closer than the polls now show because of the Democrat bias in this state! both the senate and governor’s race will be close.
- The Enforcer - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 7:42 pm:
Bill Brady can go hang out in his Florida beach condo for the next fifty days and still win this thing by 10 points. To say that Quinn has no clue about message discipline, effective governance or policy planning is the understatement of understatements. When the #1 issue in the State for the last four years has been the economy & jobs and the only thing you can come up with is borrowing more to fund infrastructure projects (see today’s debacle about building a stadium for the friggin’ St. Louis Rams) you get what you deserve. And I say that as a Dem.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 7:59 pm:
My guess: While Conservatives might “hold their noses” and vote for Kirk (which the polls reflect), the level of support they’re willing to offer–and have been offering–could be low.
So it depends on how effective one believes Conservative ground troops are based on the asssumption that they talk to Moderates, swing voters, and even Ds.
I can easily see Conservative troops out there “talking up” Brady to others, but not mentioning Kirk at all. I can also see them bypassing the GOP organizations completely by donating directly to Conservative candidates’ campaigns so Kirk doesn’t get any of their dollars–not that that would matter much to Kirk right now, but it’s a message.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:08 pm:
One more thought: Based on what I’ve seen re: “outreach” to Conservative ground troops, Kirk’s campaign SEEM to think they can win this won entirely by “Air” (pun intended) and/or they have a stronger volunteer organization than some suspect–and by stronger, I don’t necessarily mean number of names in a database, or bodies making scripted calls, I mean “effective” volunteer organization that can actually get the message across to others.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:20 pm:
And that could explain why there’s supposedly a “product” out there right now that should be selling like hotcakes in IL (that a big SHOULD), but the deals aren’t being closed.
- ourMagician - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:29 pm:
Obama’s railing against banks but looking the other way with Alexi is very disappointing. Alexi ran as the state’s banker, appeared at banking events saying he understood their issues because he was a banker. Now his bank fails, whether he made loans to Rezko or not, it failed and all he’s got is Kirk’s fabrications. Conservatives are lot closer with Kirk than Alexi in philosophy and in social issues. If you want 6 years of “anything you say Barack”, vote for Alexi or stay out of the race completely.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:30 pm:
The GOP is asking itself if it feels like winning. This is Illinois. Kirk is fine. While you may hear or read about some GOPer complaining about him being a RINO, the party and conservatives within that party will vote for him in November.
With Brady heading the ticket, conservatives will vote for Kirk too.
What I see happening is Quinn pulling down Giannoulias.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:31 pm:
That was me. My new laptop.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:42 pm:
I could argue that it’s not the votes, V-Man. It’s the support. Have you ever seen Conservative ground troops in action? They darn good. They have established networks because they’re generally more dedicated to pounding the pavement than Modertes are and they can do damage control one-on-one like no one else I’ve ever seen.
- Lefty - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:52 pm:
Leaners and crosstabs??? What does horseshoes and a filing system have to do with this?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 8:54 pm:
=If you want 6 years of “anything you say Barack”, vote for Alexi or stay out of the race completely.=
And, if they’re fully supporting you, they wouldn’t keep making dumb statements like that one to lose your vote.
- too obvious - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 9:41 pm:
It’s not just with conservatives. Mark Kirk has a big problem with any voter who has a problem with pathological liars.
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 10:05 pm:
Woops! 7:59 pm are obviously mine, except for V-Man’s post. (Glad to hear you got a new laptop, V-Man. Didn’t think one could improve upon *perfection*, but you ALWAYS manage to surprise. I’m hoping we’ll see those results in a new tune soon?)
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 10:05 pm:
…7:59 pm AND ON are ….