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Brady now has 90 percent chance of winning
Thursday, Sep 16, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * I told subscribers about the slightly changed New York Times FiveThirtyEight projection for Illinois governor. But I thought we’d open it up for discussion. Here you go…   That’s up from an 86.7 percent chance earlier in the month. Not a big difference, but the trend ain’t Quinn’s friend. In case you’re interested, here’s FiveThirtyEight’s national forecast…  * Meanwhile, as noted below, Bill Brady campaigned with former Arkansas governor, Fox News host and presidential aspirant Mike Huckabee yesterday…
Except Democratic blogger Chris Barr points to an Annenberg Political FactCheck which claims Huckabee raised taxes 21 times…
It’s way too late, but the Quinn campaign should’ve hired that guy. Quinn claimed this week that Brady would follow the lead of other Republican governors and raise taxes. If he’d been paying attention, he could’ve used that Huckabee factoid yesterday.
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- shore - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 10:41 am:
It’s worth pointing out that the chicago press corps have for years pooh-poohed every conservative who runs statewide dismissing them as “kooks”, “nuts”, “too conservative”, ect ect in the belief that in a “blue state” a “conservative can’t win”. I’d love to hear what their spin is on this race.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 10:50 am:
I doubt Brady will break 50%.
- Dirt Digger - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:02 am:
Shore: Let me help you out with your question:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=site%3Achicagotribune.com+brady+quinn
- ILPundit - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:09 am:
Quinn’s long established history of surrounding himself with people without serious political experience is really coming back to hurt him now.
Sad, but utterly predictable to anyone who has watched the guy for the last 20 years.
- cassandra - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:12 am:
I’m not sure Brady’s conservatism is on many independent voters’ radar to any significant extent.He has wisely kept from talking about social issues much. And perhaps Democrats are fearful of bringing out even more social conservatives to the voting booth if they hit him too hard on those social issues.
I suspect it’s the not-Quinn not-Democrat aspect that is helping Brady at the moment. But this is a blue state that elected Blago twice, the second time despite widespread knowledge of possible corruption in his Democratic administration. I’m still skeptical that Brady could win.
It would be great to have a complete change though. Even a new set of porkers at the trough would be refreshing. Perhaps, less ambitious and greedy pigs. State government badly needs a diet and a makeover. Brady could do it better than Quinn because if he won it could be interpreted as a mandate for change, a huge plus for any new politician taking office. And, doomsdayers to the contrary, he likely will move towards the middle when he actually has to make decisions. Including raising a few taxes, but hopefully after actually making some cuts. It may be the best we can hope for.
- Sue - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:16 am:
Assuming Brady prevails, he needs to seriously consider using Chris Christie as his role model- there is no way to resolve the Illinois budget crisis without taking on pension and retiree heath care reform- Quinn’s changes targeting only new hires doesn’t move the needle- there are billions of savings sitting out there assuming the next Governor is willing to be a one termer
- Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:19 am:
Shore, this isn’t about Brady yet. It’s all about Quinn. Voters for the most part know nothing about Brady. Since Quinn hasn’t given anyone a reason to vote for him, voting against Brady is the only hope he’s got.
And IL Pundit, you absolutely nailed it. Pat has nobody to blame for this but himself.
- Whatever - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:20 am:
Sue — totally agree. I also wish Brady would use Christie more as a template for his campaign and push a tough message on cutting taxes, cutting spending, and being fiscally responsible. To be fair, Brady is talking about those things, but I just wish he would be more forceful.
- cook county dem - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:22 am:
what is this guy doing?
https://capitolfax.com/2010/05/11/quinns-campaign-manager-hire-now-official/
- Louis Howe - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:24 am:
The last general election Quinn won, as an individual candidate, was in 1990. He’s seen this movie before in 1994. I wonder what’s going on in his head?
- Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:29 am:
” I wonder what’s going on in his head? ”
The wheels on the bus go round and round…
- Louis Howe - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:34 am:
During the French Revolution there were 13 steps to climb before reaching the Guillotine platform. I am thinking Quinn is somewhere between the top step and placing his head on the block.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:34 am:
Sue & Whatever,
In an interview yesterday, Chris Christie mentioned he has spoken to Brady several times in the past couple of weeks. I vaguely remember Brady saying last week that he has contacted Christie. Let’s hope for the best.
As far as the polling, the only way Brady would have a better chance of winning (as calculated to date) would be to run unopposed. Quinn is like a marshmallow at a campfire, toasted.
It is a fallacy that a conservative cannot win in Illinois. This argument always assumes that the conservative candidate is some sort or whacko. A good candidate can win in any environment, we see it all the time in other states where Democrats win in R+10 districts.
That the Republicans have not found the right candidates to regularly win in Illinois speaks more about the Republicans than it does about voters. There is a rough parity in Republicans and Democrats in this state, with the collar counties and downstate balancing Chicago. Successful candidates win because of their ability to draw from the independents in the state.
I am sick every time I think that Peter Roskam chose not to run for the open Senate seat, he would have won hands-down and showed how a conservative can win this state.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:41 am:
===In an interview yesterday, Chris Christie mentioned===
Couldn’t find that link. You have one?
- dupage dan - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:42 am:
Hey, Whatever,
I can’t imagine a logical reason for Brady to be more forceful regarding his campaign rhetoric. What possible benefit to his campaign would that bring?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:43 am:
Agreed, DD. Underground he goes.
- Bill - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:47 am:
==Couldn’t find that link. You have one?==
Maybe Christie was talking to Cinci personally.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 11:55 am:
There is another interview somewhere that expands, but I could only find this interview which I watched yesterday:
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/your-world-cavuto/index.html
- Vole - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 12:02 pm:
Illinois voters have a 100% chance of blowing it.
- Peggy SO-IL - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 12:08 pm:
I have been saying also that Brady should emulate Chris Christi. Glad to hear they are talking. Same type of political culture and economic problems in NJ and IL. I am not a Huckabee fan. His taxation and what I saw as his bigotry toward Mormon Mitt Romney bothered me immensely in 08.
- Anon - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
Chris Christie is coming in for a funder for Brady on October 5th…
https://www.completecampaigns.com/public.asp?name=BradyBill&page=23
- just sayin' - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 12:41 pm:
A related analysis revealed there is a 99% chance of pigs flying and of hell freezing over.
Seriously, Quinn’s not going far enough. It’s not only a fact that ONLY Republican govs have ever raised the state income tax, it was a Republican gov who instituted the income tax in Illinois. That was Olgivie.
But if not raising the income tax was really the overriding issue, should have kept Blago. He did keep that promise.
- Ghost - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 12:55 pm:
As mentioned before, I have yet to see a Quinn add or campaign.
Quinn: who is this guy?
as I mentioned before, is there really a meaningful diference between saying 86% or 90% or even 99%?
- Ghost - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 1:02 pm:
I mean ad, ad! accidentaly invoked a sacred bugaboo for the blog
- Windy City Mama - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 1:04 pm:
Question. Since Quinn was never elected governor by the people will his portrait hang with the other elected governors ?
- Angry Republican - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
I think Vole called it correctly, IL has a 100% chance of blowing it. With Daley retired, Mike Madigan has now been elevated to super duper grand poobah of IL. We already know Quinn is completely incapable of working with MM; it will be interesting to see how well Gov Brady can work with MM.
- Bill - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 1:17 pm:
Madigan can manipulate, er, I mean, work with anyone. Having a Governor Brady will give him an excuse to finally live out his republican fantasies. When his Machivallian plans blow up in his face as they eventually always do he can just blame Gov. Brady and carry on with his merry band of followers.
- shore - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 1:32 pm:
Louis howe that was actually really good, I hadn’t heard/read that before.
Brady said last fall his goal was a bob mcdonnell kind of campaign where the die hard conservative basically shut his mouth on social issues and ran on fiscal issues and the need for change. It worked, particularly in the northern virginia suburbs which are our version of the collar counties.
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 3:27 pm:
Truman 1948
- Team Sleep - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 3:35 pm:
Anon 11:29, that had me chuckling.
I want to see what 2/10 of a governor looks like.
Nate Silver is as blunt and honest of a predictor - and, more importantly, game theorist statistician - as they come. He will tell an MSNBC host that a Dem will get smoked and will then tell a Fox News anchor that a state’s TEA Party candidate just blew the state party’s chances of taking a Senate seat. His candor and attitude make him a more interesting talking head than Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg.
I think Louis Howe said it best. It’s been nearly 20 years since Quinn won a race on his own. That’s a long time. He rode almost $50 million worth of Blago ads & campaign spending to a lieutenant governor seat that fit his abilities and energy to a tee. But those qualities aren’t so well suited for a governor’s chair. Times have changed. The cost of running a campaign has greatly increased. Media markets are larger and more expensive. Campaign staffers make more and require more resources. Perhaps some of this has caught up with Quinn.
- dupage dan - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 3:52 pm:
Quiet Sage,
Care to put something of value on that prediction?
A large donation to the charity of your choice, perhaps? (not including campaign donations, of course)
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 3:59 pm:
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 3:27 pm:
“Truman 1948″
Just before the election, Gallup gave the election to Dewey by 49.5% to 44.5%, a five point difference. If Quinn is within double that difference just before the election, I’d be surprised.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:21 pm:
I should have added the final results, Truman 49.6%, Dewey, 45.1% and good old Strom Thurman 2.4%
- Sue - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 4:30 pm:
Rich- Christie was on TV (I think Morning Joe)and spoke about the candidates he plans on campaigning for- he made a brief mention of Brady as someone he has consulted
- jake - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 5:20 pm:
The governor under whom the last income tax increase was enacted was Jim Edgar. Edgar has decided to endorse Brady. hmm…..
That being said, I do not think that Quinn has a winning argument in saying that Brady secretly agrees with him about an income tax increase. A stronger argument might be that whatever Brady believes the tax rate to be, he (Brady) does not believe in paying his share. Just sayin’…..
- steve schnorf - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 6:02 pm:
Jake, you just don’t have a clue, do you?
- Laura - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 6:10 pm:
Quinn’s got a major identity problem. It looks like he ousted Blago, not because Blago was corrupt, but rather so he could take power and have Mike Madigan get him a huge amount of campaign money. This idea was only reinforced in the public by Quinn subsequently rolling over and giving into to Mike Madigan when it came to campaign finance reform. The greater reformer to end corruption? He gave the appearance of becoming what he campaigned against. If he had stuck to his guns, shown some spine, fought against Mike Madigan’s machine… I think this would have been a cake walk for him.
That said, I’m not voting for either of these turkeys. They are both too flawed. I’ll take the Green candidate, even if he would be totally paralyzed should he win.
- Pioneer P. - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 10:23 pm:
Can anyone explain what happened in March exactly or is that kind of an anomaly in the way this is all figured out?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 16, 10 @ 10:51 pm:
He never recovered from the primary.
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:09 am:
These two make me sick! I am voting for Cohen as a protest vote.
- DuPage Dan - Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:30 am:
WTG, Anonymous, another wasted vote. Only helps Brady, BTW.