50 Comments - 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:39 pm: Brady 47 Quinn 42 Cohen 8 Whitney 3 Kirk 45 Giannoulias 46 Jones 6 Labno 3 - 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:40 pm: Adding, Kirk for biggest surprise loser. - OneMan - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:41 pm: Brady 48 Quinn 41 Cohen 8 Whitney 6 Kirk 48 Giannoulias 46 Jones 3 Labno 2 - The Mighty Swan - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:43 pm: Quinn 43 Brady 43. Quinn wins a contested election that takes days to sort out. Giannoulias 46 Kirk 42 Good economic news helps Democrats win in Illinois Quinn wins a shocker. - Stones - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:44 pm: Brady / Kirk win. I’ll go with Oneman’s percentages. Biggest Surpise Winner - Kinzinger - John Presta - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:46 pm: Quinn 45 Brady 44 Cohen 9 Whitney 2 Cohen hurts Brady, me thinks. Brady drags out recount but still loses. Giannoulias 52 Kirk 44 Others 4 Alexi is the surprise runaway winner. - Cincinnatus - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:48 pm: Brady - 48 Quinn - 40 Kirk - 46 Alexi - 43 Foster, Hare and Halvorson all lose. - RMW Stanford - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:49 pm: Brady 50 Quinn 42 SLC 5 Whitney 3 Between Kirk and Alexi, I dont know take either one by point or two - Team Sleep - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:50 pm: Brady - 51% Quinn - 40% Cohen - 6% Whitney - 3% Kirk - 48% Giannoulias - 44% Jones - 6% Labno - 2% - Niles Township - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:52 pm: Kirk 48 Alexi 43 Others 9 Quinn 41 Brady 40.99 Others 18.01 I agree with The Mighty Swan, a recount is in play with Quinn pulling out by the closest gubenatorial race in the nation’s history. - Siriusly - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:58 pm: Brady 49 Quinn 41 Whitney 8 SLC 2 Giannoulias 48.2 Kirk 48.1 I agree with 47, Kirk losing will be one of the biggest upsets nationally. I only say that because while people may not care much for Brady, they will vote for him with conviction. The same can’t be said of Kirk, not a lot of enthusiasm for him since his exaggerations came to light. - Louis Howe - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 1:59 pm: Brady 51% Quinn 35% Cohen 10% Whitney 4% Surprise…Brady gets North of 50%…Big GOP and Downstate Turnout Kirk 50% Alexi 44% Others 6% Surprise Shilling beats Hare - 60611 - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:01 pm: Brady 47 Quinn 45 Whitney 5 Cohen/others 3 Giannoulias 48 Kirk 44 Jones 5 Labno 3 All House incumbents except Halvorson win, while Seals picks up IL-10. No big surprises, but Republicans come just a couple of seats short of taking the IL House. - Skeeter - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:05 pm: Brady 48 Quinn 40 Cohen: 4 Whitney: 8 People will vote for the unknown Green as the protest, as opposed to the known Cohen. On that same argument, people know Quinn and won’t support him. Big Chicago turnout doesn’t help Quinn. Kirk: 49 Alexi: 51 Huge turnout in the city carries Alexi. Upset: Bean loses. This one is off the radar but that area is still solid GOP and she hasn’t done much to get anybody motivated to support her. - D.P. Gumby - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:07 pm: Alexi wins, but Kirk keeps saying he did. Brady wins by one vote cuz Quinn went to the wrong polling place and then forgot to mark his ballot. - 10th Indy - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:09 pm: Brady 48 Quinn 39 Cohen 10 Whitney 3 Kirk 48 Alexi 43 Jones 7 Labno 2 - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:18 pm: Brady 37 Quinn 39 Cohen 16 Whitney 8 Kirk 48 Giannoulias 48 Jones 2 Labno 2 Cohen makes a surge but pulls more votes from Brady than Quinn. As an unaffiliated name with lots of name recognition, folks unhappy with Quinn and afraid of Brady (esp. after an October of negative ads) go with the “familiar” but unscarred Cohen. Thus: Quinn and Brady get their base, but the swing voters go for Cohen. Whitney loses out due to lack of familiarity and having a third party after his name. Kirk-Giannoulis will be a toss-up. The other candidates will get little movement. - zzzzzz - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:26 pm: I want to know who Art Turner votes for…. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:29 pm: Brady 49 Quinn 44 Cohen 5 Whitney 2 Kirk 47 Giannoulias 45 Jones 5 Labno 3 - Thoughts... - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:30 pm: Brady +6 or more Alexi +1 or less (but still wins) Biggest winner/loser - David Miller beats JBT as most of Illinois think’s Rich’s brother is running for office. - Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:31 pm: Thoughts, he’s my cousin, not my brother. lol - OneMan - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:33 pm: Foster loses (perhaps just wishful thinking on my part), JBT and Rutherford win as well. - A.B. - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 2:56 pm: Brady 50 Quinn 43 Others 7 Kirk 49 Gianoulias 46 Others 5 Voter apathy in Chicago play an enormous role. People are more focused on the mayoral election than the statewide races. African -American turnout returns to 2006 participation numbers. Shocker: Kirk’s traditional base turnout heavily in the 10th to support his Senatorial bid, which brings Dold through on Kirk’s coattails. (and Seals returns to the unemployment line) - RAMBO - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:05 pm: Quinn 42.1 Brady 39.6 Cohen 9.2 Whitney 8.1 - Adam Smith - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:15 pm: Brady 48 Quinn 39 Others 13 Kirk 44 Alexi 43 Others 13 ‘Burbs and downstate turnouts much higher than city. 2008 new voters stay home in droves. A.B. beat me to the punch but Dold wins a squeaker over Ray Wardingly, oops, Dan Seals, as the surprise winner. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:24 pm: Brady +4 but gets @46%. Kirk by thin margin, but wins. Kinzinger & Seals win, Foster holds. I will go with Hare, but not so sure I’m right on that one. JBT wins, but Rutherford drops a razor thin race to Robyn Kelly. Biggest shock on Election Night is House GOP, but not that they take the house (or come close), but rather that they pick up fewer seats than expected. Still their biggest night in years, but not near the 12 needed. - OurMagician - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:27 pm: Brady +4 (no way Whitney gets above 3%-the none of the above vote he got in 06 will go to “job creator” Cohen) Kirk +3 Surprise-Phil Hare loses-gerrymandering opponents win. - T - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 3:53 pm: 45 - Quinn 45 - Brady 6 - Cohen 4- Whitney 43-Kirk 42 - Giannoulias 15 - other folks - Team Sleep - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:32 pm: Crud, I forgot about the bonus question. Phil Hare losing to Bobby Schilling is too easy. Mine is a three-way tie. First, I think Joe Pollak will beat Jan Schakowsky. Yeah, it sounds crazy, but he’s raising $$$ at a good clip and could be placed under the “Young Guns” program. Second, I think Cedra Crenshaw will beat AJ Wilhelmi. Third, I think Dwight Kay beats Jay Hoffman. - justbabs - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:33 pm: Quinn 42 Brady 46 (who cares about the others) Kirk 44 Giannoulias 45 (or 44.1 but more than Kirk) Biggest winner, JBT - everyone who should have voted for her 4 years ago tries to make-up. - Wensicia - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:47 pm: Quinn 42% Brady 44% Others 14% Giannoulias 43% Kirk 46% Others 11% Low voter turnout, Cohen steals more Brady vote than Quinn, still Brady wins. - eastsider - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 4:49 pm: Brady 50 Quinn 39 Others 11 Kirk 45 Alexi 44 Others 11 Biggest surprises: 1. Dwight Kay beats Jay Hoffman 2. Bobby Schilling beats Phil Hare - Squideshi - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:00 pm: I really have no idea, but it is wrong that I want to slap the people who wrote “others?” - Raising Kane - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:42 pm: Brady 49 Quinn 38 Cohn 5 Whitney 6 Green 2 Kirk 49 Ali G 45 Jones 4 Labno 2 Biggest surprise: Adam Baumgartner beats Toi Hutchinson…because Toi’s former boss Debbie Halvorson lost by 15 points and drug her down with her. - L.S. - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:44 pm: Brady 43 Quinn 40 Cohen 7 Whitney 10 Alexi 45 Kirk 44 Others 11 Kirk somehow manages to lose in this envioroment is the headline - DoubleDown - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:45 pm: Brady 55 Quinn 45 Kirk 48 Alexi 52 Biggest Surprise AJ Wilhelmi loser - I know at least 5 Democrats who voted for him last election is leaving this seat blank on the ballot, Joliet & Lockport - L.S. - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 5:46 pm: if the headline can be outside of those two races, I’ll go with state house and senate GOP don’t do near as well as expected. - Park - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 6:42 pm: Brady: 48% Quinn: 38% Cohen: 9% Whitney: 5% Cohen’s hitting the south side hard. Today saw his billboard on Eastbound I-57 around Markham/Harvey, big picture of him and his AA running mate. I don’t see either Quinn or Sheila Simon making a big hit in the AA community. Biggest surprise: AG wins. Hard to believe with his baggage. Jim Ryan should have run for the R nomination here. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 6:56 pm: Brady 50% Quinn 40% Whitney 8% Cohen 2% Kirk 49% Giannoulias 44% Surprise = Dold beats Seals Shoulda been a surprise = Schilling beats Hare Kinzinger beats Halvorson Hultgren beats Foster Statewide only White and Madigan survives. - ugh - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 7:49 pm: Brady and Quinn takes 2-3 days to sort out, but Brady pulls through. Quinn doesn’t ask for a recount. Gianoulias just barely beats Kirk. Shocker: Justice Kilbride becomes the first Supreme Court justice to lose retention and the first sitting chief justice in the country to lose retention. I don’t want this to happen, but voter turnout is going to suck and he needs 60%. - Pigs to Slaughter - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 8:31 pm: Quinn Gets Slaughtered Brady 55 Quinn 40 Whitney 5 Senate (Close Call) Giannoulis-51 Kirk-49 Hoffman doesn’t lose eastsider. You clearly don’t know the district or the resources battle in this race but that guess was cute. Suprise winner because of the margin is Rosenthal in the 98th. Biggest suprise loser is Robin Kelly down year for the democrats. - Been There - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 8:34 pm: Biggest surprise winner John Patrick Ryan ok, I’m out drinking. Just kidding Mr Speaker - pyrman - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 10:25 pm: No way Kay beats Hoffman, that is not a prediction it is a fantasy. - Josh - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:18 pm: Like everyone says, Brady trounces Quinn (though by a smaller margin than the average prediction). Kirk edges Alexi in the wee hours of the night. JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky-Creamer and the movement to allow foreign-born Americans to run for President resurfaces. Seriously, the guy is brilliant. Also: http://www.facebook.com/PollakForCongress - Obamarama - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:29 pm: That can’t be a serious post. - Josh - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:34 pm: She’s never had a serious challenger, Obamarama. She’s never had to fight for the seat. She’s scared now. - Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:44 pm: ===JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky=== 2002 Blagojevich: 61.7 percent 2004 Kerry: 65 percent - Obamarama - Monday, Sep 20, 10 @ 11:52 pm: ===She’s never had a serious challenger=== She still doesn’t. ===She’s never had to fight for the seat=== She’s never pulled less than 70% of the vote. ===She’s scared now=== No, she isn’t. Do you have any polling that shows not-Jan within 30 points? Or some secret fundraising data that has her at less than a 10:1 fundraising advantage? Is Bobby Rush going to lose too? - Josh - Tuesday, Sep 21, 10 @ 12:06 am: ===Which candidate will be the biggest surprise winner/loser of the year?=== It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if everybody expected it, would it? - Niles Township - Tuesday, Sep 21, 10 @ 9:09 am: ===JOEL POLLAK takes the 9th congressional district away from Jan Schakowsky=== 2002 Blagojevich: 61.7 percent 2004 Kerry: 65 percent ————— Rich: I agree that Jan will win, but this be her toughest fight yet, and for a guy with not a ton of money. Many in the district believe Jan loves DC politics, but doesn’t do much for her district.Pollak will at least finish in the high 30’s perhaps even break 40. Had he received some money this might have been more of a race. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.