Past waves have lessons for today
Monday, Sep 27, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column is about the coming wave…
If you talk to Democrats in the Illinois Legislature, they’ll tell you their latest round of polling is showing improvement in most of their races since the summer. The Republicans, however, believe they have history on their side.
The House Democrats say their candidates are sticking to a strict and intense precinct-walking program. That, plus the end of the Rod Blagojevich trial allowed them to stabilize their campaigns. They see polls showing their candidates doing better than they were and believe they’ve turned the corner.
The Democrats have a lot of things going for them that they didn’t have during the big 1994 national Republican landslide. They’re running in districts on a map that Democrats drew; there’s no more straight-party voting; they have a tried-and-true incumbent protection program; and their gubernatorial candidate isn’t doing as badly as their ‘94 candidate, Dawn Clark Netsch (although Gov. Pat Quinn is getting completely and totally blown out downstate). Democrats also have at least two statewide officials - Lisa Madigan and Jesse White - who will serve as “stoppers” for the party. And they have a president from this state who has managed to keep Illinois in his corner more than just about anywhere else.
But House Republicans point to recent history as a guide. About this point in the campaign two years ago, they thought they were doing OK against the Barack Obama Democratic tide. They believed their losses would be manageable. By mid-October, the Obama wave was in full force and there wasn’t anything Illinois Republicans could do about it.
Pretty much the same thing happened in 1994. September polling showed problems, but the Democrats thought it could be contained and they derided the House Republicans for jumping into several new races where nobody gave them a chance. By the middle of October, the bottom fell out. And it was even worse come Election Day when Democratic voters failed to show up. The Republicans won just about every one of those contested races.
It’s no coincidence that House Republicans say they’re planning a move into new races in the coming days. They’re following their own playbook.
Meanwhile, Senate Democrats say they continually adjust and monitor their likely voter polling screens to make sure they’re not unduly surprised. And, so far, they like what they see. But one Democratic operative joked last week that his caucus rarely asks whether respondents approve of the General Assembly’s job performance. The results were just too depressing.
A solid Democratic source who has seen two complete House Democratic polls of collar county districts says one showed a 14 percent legislative approval rating, the other came up as 12.
“The scary part,” the Democratic source said, “is if (party leaders) blame all these losses on this wave, that means they think they haven’t done anything wrong to cause this.” Instead, the source argued, his party needs to come to terms with the fact that they’re exacerbating the national party problem with their own mismanagement. “Illinois has created its own wave,” he insisted.
A top state Republican who monitors just about every GOP poll taken in this state privately predicted last week that the wave could very well be bigger than 1994’s. He has a point.
The populist anger seems more vicious and is far more organized via the tea partiers and the Internet. The 24/7 news media is more uniformly outraged and is aiming its anger right at Democratic leaders. Reform groups of all shapes, sizes and causes are far more bitter because of their legislative losses.
Downstate independents have completely abandoned Quinn. The usually pro-Democratic network of human service groups and their supporters are despondent over budget cuts and late state payments. And the state’s economic problems under total Democratic control are infinitely more severe than they were 16 years ago, when the Republicans held the governor’s mansion and all but one statewide office. The state’s current unemployment rate is almost double what it was in 1994, and vast swaths of the Democratic base are the hardest hit. And then, of course, there’s that monstrous state deficit, the mismanagement and the whole Blagojevich disaster.
Any Democrat who isn’t ahead by double digits right now had better work like their very lives depended on it. And all Republicans who are losing by anywhere near that margin should do the same.
This has been the most fascinating state campaign season I’ve ever seen. And it’s only going to get better.
* But Rep. Lou Lang disagrees…
September 24, 2010. Illinois Republicans are crowing that an electoral “wave” is going to sweep State Rep. Tom Cross (R-Owego) into the Speaker’s chair in the Illinois House of Representatives–and it will be crow which the GOP will be eating on November 3, 2010.
Both national and local trends will keep House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) in his post when the legislature reconvenes in January, 2011.
The negative national political headwinds have been blowing across the prairie state for months as the national economy continues to sputter and as the extremist Illinois Tea Party and national tea party movements have engaged in racially-tinged fear-mongering, outright distortions of facts, and character assassination of Democratic officials, scaring democratic and independent voters alike in the U.S. and in Illinois.
But the winds are shifting. […]
A stalling GOP momentum and hard-working Democratic legislative candidates reaching out to voters door-to-door will help Speaker Madigan (D-Chicago) hold on to majority in the Illinois legislature.
In January, we will have full plate of hot, steaming crow on which the Republicans can munch.
Thoughts?
- Niles Township - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:13 am:
This independant minded Democrat has already made his ballot decisions, and for the first time ever the lever will be pulled (forgive the old time vocabulary) for more GOPers than Dems. In particular, I will be voting GOP in legislative races to send a message to Mike Madigan. Frnakly, this will be the case even though I donb’t agree on most issues with the GOP candidates in my area. On constituional officers, I am splitting my ballot between the parties. Finally, I will be voitng for Kirk. I am Democrat who is tired of IL Democratic politics. Say no to Madigan!
- MrJM - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:15 am:
“Thoughts?”
The weather will determine the turnout, and the turnout will determine the outcome.
– MrJM
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:24 am:
Nationally, the Republicans are hindering the opportunity for a wave with many candidates that would previously have been laughed off the stage. They also aren’t helping themselves with an agenda (or lack thereof) that contains the intellectual rigor and novelty of my son’s kindergarten books. That said, the times are very hard and people are royally pissed off here and around the country. Three months before an election, people flirt with crazies. Within the last week they get serious. We’ll soon see.
One thing we know for sure. People really have a problem with Pat Quinn and that will bleed its way down the ballot. Alexi won’t help.
- Dirt Digger - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:30 am:
I find the premise that Illinois D problems are from national trends to be dubious.
- wordslinger - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:34 am:
With the fear and anger generated by this long, dreary recession, anyone in power should expect to get whacked pretty hard, whether they have any real influence on events or not. I wouldn’t bet the Under on the number of Dems who will go down.
It’ll be interesting to compare Lisa and Jesse’s 2010 totals to their 2008 votes, and see if it’s possible to determine whether they had a “stopper” effect.
With the way things are and Dems in control, I’m surprised we haven’t see a push for the GOP brand - a simple Vote Republican effort. The top GOP candidates whack “Chicago Machine Democrats” by name, but they never identify themselves as Republicans.
With the foul mood of the public, and with failures and scandals involving institutions in so many areas — government, business, churches, sports — any kind of old brand name is probably to be avoided, I guess.
- OneMan - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:35 am:
The number of folks who id’ed themselves as Tea Party kind of surprised me. So I think that anger is going to be big, they are going to go vote. So I think it may be a little wishful thinking from Lou.
- votecounter - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:39 am:
The problem would be IF the GOP take the Legislature back Cross and Rodogno are NOT what the people are voting for! There will be a drive to replace them because of their moderate stands if they stay and even hint at a tax or fee increases the voters who put the GOP in will turn to third party candidates in 2 years.
- Secret Square - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:42 am:
“The weather will determine the turnout”
In an early February or March primary, when full-fledged blizzards, sub-freezing temperatures and ice storms are still possible, that may be the case. But on Nov. 2, probably not so much.
I have missed voting in two primaries (one in February, one in March) due to weather (sleet storm/heavy rain in one instance, blizzard in the other), but have never missed a general election day for that reason.
- GOP - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:47 am:
While I do not see Madigan losing the Speakership yet, it is possible. Radogno will pick up as few as 2 seats…as many as 5 seats. Cross will pick up more than 5 seats. Brady, Kirk, Rutherford and Topinka will all win.
- Louis Howe - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:47 am:
I like Lou, but he’s never had a GOP contested race in his life. Over the last 30 years at election time, the power-elite democrats have been promising working families a steak dinner, and then after the election, delivering broccoli and cheese. When the rank and file democrats complain about the switch-a-roo they’re told, “Don’t be stupid, the republicans will only give you bread and water.” Well, the Democratic Party leadership can ring the dinner bell all they want, but the rank and file aren’t buying it this year.
- dave - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:49 am:
I’m surprised we haven’t see a push for the GOP brand - a simple Vote Republican effort. The top GOP candidates whack “Chicago Machine Democrats” by name, but they never identify themselves as Republicans.
That is because, at least in most polls that I have seen, Republicans are actually polling worse than Democrats in terms of favorability. The general ballot question seems to be giving the GOP a slight lead, but congressional Republicans, as well as Republican leaders, actually have lower approval ratings than congressional Dems/Dem leaders, and both are lower than Obama.
Further… this is still a blue state. People don’t want to vote Republican. But they may want to vote against a Democrat.
- Anonymous - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:54 am:
Dirt Digger — according to the locals in Massachusetts, there were three main reasons Scott Brown beat Martha Coakley: Scott Brown was a very attractive candidate; Coakley ran a terrible, godawful campaign; and the national GOP wave put it in reach.
In Illinois the national GOP wave and the frustration with the incompetence of the state Democratic government create the baseline conditions.
Good Democratic candidates are still going to win. But the ones who have bad districts and good opponents, and/or haven’t campaigned well, will go down. The national trend will be a continuing factor.
- Ground Game - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:57 am:
Rep. Lang makes it sound like the Republicans don’t have a ground field game. What he tends to mistake is that the GOP field has been and continues to br rather active, along with new volunteers to the effort. I tend to beleive that the GOP field will outpace and outwork that of the Dems. The national trend indicates it and the IL polls confirm it.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 10:59 am:
Rich is right. So is wordslinger. Do not believe the dead cat bounce in October. This usually happens.
What does Lou Lang know? Lots of stuff but he is not much of an expert here.
I still smell a wipe out coming.
- Raising Kane - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:01 am:
Nationally Lou might be right about the GOP falling short of some of the more optimistic predictions. That is in part due to the fact that they have some really flawed candidates out there (especially for the US Senate). But in Illinois, I think Tom and Chris did an excellent job recruiting very solid candidates to run this time. I see a lot of polling and I can pretty easily see 10 pickups and if I squint just right, I can get to 13.
Its most likely that MJM retains his speakership by a couple of votes but I see no scenerio where the GOP eats crow.
- Dirt Digger - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:03 am:
Anonymous: Be that as it may, Lang’s argument appears to be that the IL D’s have problems because of a national wave, and national republicans are crazy ergo D’s will win.
If that syllogism is correct there is no actual wave anywhere.
- Anonymous - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:05 am:
The fact that both Democrats and Republicans are more worried about the polling strength of their parties rather than the performance of the individual representatives is the core problem. I do believe that the Republican party is weakening its own chances by moving farther to the right, although I understand its attempt to respond to Tea Party candidates. At all levels of government the US is hampered by the two-party system maintaining the status quo.
- Plutocrat03 - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:07 am:
How tired are people about the constant drumbeat of faux racism from people like Rep.Lou Lang.
As a representative for more than 20 years, he is the poster child of what is wrong in Illinois. Campaign donations from gambling interests, liquor wholesalers, banking interests and unions keep his vote on the side of the special interests rather than the voters.
The State is broken and he is a major part of that failure. There may be a national tide of rejection of the existing power structure, but what happens in Illinois will be because of the decades long mismanagement by the entrenched power structure.
- The End Is Near - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:27 am:
Lang: “Both national and local trends will keep House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) in his post when the legislature reconvenes in January, 2011.”
What Lou fails to explain — and, let’s face it, is probably unable to explain with a straight face — is why Madigan’s hold on the Speaker’s job is a good thing for the people of Illinois. (We know why it’s good for Lou.)
- 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:28 am:
They’ll eat their words with a fork and spoon
And watch ‘em they’ll hit the road and all be surfin’ soon
And when they catch a wave they’ll be sittin’ on top of the world
Brian Wilson and Mike Love
- aufjunk - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:43 am:
Don’t know if Lou Lang can walk and chew gum, but he proved he can whistle in the dark.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 11:46 am:
“What Lou fails to explain — and, let’s face it, is probably unable to explain with a straight face — is why Madigan’s hold on the Speaker’s job is a good thing for the people of Illinois. (We know why it’s good for Lou.)”
PRECISELY!!!!
Why does Madigan even want to still be Speaker after all these years? I mean yeah, power is awesome, but doesn’t it ever get a little old wielding all that power and never ever doing anything productive with it for fear that you’ll lose that power?
Does he not even care that he is a political liability for his very popular daughter if she ever aspires to higher office? Would she have run for governor this year and given us an actually decent candidate if only her old man would have had the willingness to hang up his hat and release his death grip stranglehold on the Illinois Democratic Party and Springfield, which have both suffered greatly from mismanagement and ineffectiveness while in his clutches?
- Bill - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
Lou is just spouting the same bull as Madigan whose excuse for the fiscal problems of Illinois is always the national recession and certainly not his own deficiencies. I would almost want a republican House for a couple of years if it meant we would finally be rid of him. I mean, how much harm could they do that Madigan hasn’t already done?
As for Lou, its probabbly time for him to “retire” and make some real money.
- laughing all the way - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 12:17 pm:
I take exception that I am referred to as an extremest because I agree with the Tea party mantra. I prefer on the other hand to think that the real extremests are the typical Illinois voters. Laugh at me all you want, but you are the ones that elected the likes of Ryan and Blagojevich as well as the local leaders that have made Illinois the financial mess that it is.
- Ghost - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 12:36 pm:
Toss the bumbs out is the battle cry I here most from people gossiping on the street. I think the winds o fortune still favor the GOp canidates and with respect, represenative Lang will find his fare is more fowl, and the gop fowl is more fare.
- Quinn T. Sential - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 12:36 pm:
{Both national and local trends will keep House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) in his post when the legislature reconvenes in January, 2011.}
The other thing Lou fails to explain is that it was not a “trend” that put MJM in the Speaker’s chair, and if the Democrat House members prevail in the majority, it will be them, and not a trend that would return MJM to that chair.
Voters have no say in the matter; other than to vote against the likes of people like Lou that fail to lead, solely out of fear, and to protect their own position in the majority leadership. If Lou was a real leader, he would challenge MJM for the speakership, and implement the positive changes that need to be implemented in the dysfunctional Illinois House. But alas instead, a follower Lou has been, and a follower he will always be.
- bored now - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 12:41 pm:
forgive me if i find niles township’s “reasoning” laughable. he pretends to care about the speaker’s power but does the speaker’s bidding by eliminating one of the few elected democrats who has stood up to the speaker, and the only one i can think of who’s beat him!
voting for mark kirk doesn’t hurt the speaker, it actually helps madigan consolidate his power by saying, “see, if you oppose me like alexi did, you’ll be defeated.”
why do i think that is really niles township’s purpose all along?
if you really are a reformer — and especially if you are frightened by all the power that speaker madigan has accumulated — voting for alexi is not only an easy vote, it’s the only intelligent choice you can make.
*if* you really are independent minded, that is…
Ground Game: i’m sorry, but illinois is basically unfamiliar with the ground game that republicans/conservatives pound out in the rest of the country. i can think of only two republicans who not only used the voter vault but used it to really drive voters to the polls. i think you may find evidence of this now in the 11th CD, but in the rest of the state? definitely seen no evidence of that. clearly the difference is experience with gop gotv efforts elsewhere; i think had you been exposed to the gop ground game outside of illinois, you wouldn’t have said what you did…
- Irish - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
“The scary part,” the Democratic source said, “is if (party leaders) blame all these losses on this wave, that means they think they haven’t done anything wrong to cause this.”
The Democratic source hit the nail on the head. The problem for the Democrats is they think they can get by with governing for survival instead of fixing the problems of the State. I hope they find out in November that they were wrong. I also hope that Mike Madigan finds out that while history often repeats itself, the times sometimes affects history. MJM feared that if he allowed a tax increase to go through he would suffer the same result he did in 1994. So he killed the tax increase to help the fiscal situation now. He hoped that the public would pat him on the back for that and elect his minions. What he didn’t realize was, while that might have been a popular move according to the polls, the expectation was that his Democrat controlled House would have then come up with some sort of a plan to fix the fiscal mess. When they didn’t, and blatantly stated they were going to wait to get re-elected to work on it, is when the outrage began.
I would love to see MJM lose his majority and I would love to see someone other than Cross or Ragdano in the leadership roles. Anyone who was part of the the present legislature and did not stand up and fight to do something to stop or slow our spiral into this fiscal abyss should be fired at the polls.
I would love to see every member of the GA called to task for their actions or inactions this last year.
One of the things I would like to see the BGA do is to pursue the daily activities of every GA member. I have wondered ever since the GA declared that every day of the year was a work day for them just what activities they might have been involved in that a Legislator might not want to be doing while working. That declaration and it’s self serving nature was arrogant and elitest and I’ll bet there were days that they should not have been doing what they were doing.
- JohnK - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:10 pm:
I’m a neophyte, so excuse the dumb question: I thought straight-party voting helped the Dems (in Chicago, at least) or was a wash between the two parties. What was the reasoning behind getting rid of it?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:11 pm:
===What was the reasoning behind getting rid of it? ===
The Dems retook control of the House in 1996 because of straight-party voting in a presidential year. Edgar and the Republicans moved the bill in January of 2007 on a simple majority vote, just before MJM got the gavel back.
- Old Timer Dem - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:12 pm:
Most voters do not understand the connection between their Rep and Madigans power. I do not think there will be enough straight Repub votes to turn the House over to the Repubs. He has too many good candidates versus many average to poor Repub candidates.
- Louis Howe - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:16 pm:
Bored Now—You’re hopeless. The Speaker has many faults, but opposing Alexi in the 2006 primary wasn’t one of them. In fact, his concerns about Alexi’s banking connections proved prescient. The anti-government wave that is about to hit Illinois will swamp any Dem door-to-door as well as GOTV effort. Do you still think the US Senate is off the table for a GOP switch?
- Old Timer Dem - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
The repealing of straight party voting was also a reaction to the old Democratic Punch 10 campaigns that worked so effectively in the 80’s for the Dems. Republicans thought that minority voters were incapable of voting each office individually and figured they would benefit by eliminating the straight party option. It is ironic that the elimination of straight party voting may be the biggest reason why the Dems maintain their power this year by winning a few swing districts that lean Republican.
- Still Gettin Twisted - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 2:36 pm:
So “votecounter” are you saying that if Cross wins a majority of house seats, those Republican House Members are going to vote him out of leadership? Really? “Tom, great job getting us the majority… your fired”
- Still Gettin Twisted - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 2:41 pm:
What the Dems are underestimating is how motivated the Republicans are this election. Never seen this much GOP activity in my part of the State. Plus, Quinn is toast. Cross might not win the House, but he’s going to get close enough to make things interesting.
- Ghost - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 2:43 pm:
How has Cross helped the GOP get the majority? (assuming they prevail)
- papers - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 3:12 pm:
i agree with-hisgirlfriday-, but sadly, if the gop does sweep and cross replaces mjm, does anyone have any higher expectations from our govt?
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 3:28 pm:
-papers.
Yes, but not much.
- bored now - Monday, Sep 27, 10 @ 9:30 pm:
Louis Howe: madigan wasn’t concerned that alexi was a flawed candidate when he slated an extraordinarily flawed candidate as treasurer. madigan was giving comfort to his downstate reps by slating one of their own. and he did his due diligence and had oppo performed against the one candidate that dared to stand up to him (alexi). alexi wasn’t the only democratic candidate to circulate petitions for in 2006, he was simply the only other candidate who dared to file.
i don’t ever recall saying that “the US Senate is off the table for a GOP switch.” i support alexi, but that doesn’t mean i know that he will win. i’m betting that the u.s. senate race will be *much* closer than anyone will like on november 2nd.
while it’s possible that illinois republicans will have a decent ground game, i’m certainly not counting on that. i may have more face to face contact with tea baggers than most people here, but the one’s in will and kankakee counties aren’t knocking out doors (yet). if they are, then they have yet to find their way into the swing areas of the state. otoh, democrats have been pounding the pavement. that’s one reason why i take your comment with a grain of salt. at this stage in a real competitive race, we’d be running into gop teams of canvassers in these swing areas. i still think that illinois republicans have missed fundamental elements of modern elections by taking a pass on the reagan revolution and not participating in conservative movement tactics and trainings (except for roskam and schock)…
- Devin Hansen - Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 1:18 pm:
“The populist anger seems more vicious and is far more organized via the tea partiers and the Internet.” — The term populist seems to get thrown around a lot lately. But as a political philosophy, Populism is pretty far from the present beliefs of the Tea Party. As a rough example, Bruce Braley restarted the Populist Caucus in the house, and its made up of 25 democrats, and I don’t think they’re getting much support from the Tea Party.