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Poll: Not a whole lotta change
Tuesday, Sep 28, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Pulse Opinion Research just did a statewide survey of 1,000 likely voters on September 25th for Fox News. Governor…
US Senate…
Just like Rasmussen, they didn’t include the Libertarian Party candidates and millionaire Scott Lee Cohen. These people are goofballs. There’s just no other way to say it. Complete results and crosstabs. Those xtabs show Alexi Giannoulias beating Mark Kirk with women 42-38, while Bill Brady is leading Pat Quinn with women 44-36. There’s just no excuse for that poor showing by Quinn. He simply doesn’t know what he’s doing. And this is from TPM…
The same is not true with the governor’s race. Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is getting 9 percent of Obama’s voters, but just 5 percent of McCain’s voters. He is, however, taking 6 percent from both Republicans and Democrats. He’s also getting 10 percent from those making more than $60K and 11 percent of people who say they are moderates. * More toplines…
That’s a big reason why Kirk hasn’t yet put this away. * As you already know, Rasmussen released its US Senate poll last week. In the past, they have always polled the governor’s race whenever they’ve polled the Senate race. This time, though, they say they didn’t do it. Odd. Anyway, we won’t have new gubernatorial numbers from them until next week. Also, we successfully Freeped PPP’s site last week and their new Illinois poll numbers will start rolling out tomorrow I’m told. * Meanwhile, the gubernatorial candidates will debate tomorrow at the Union League Club. We probably won’t have live video unless I can rig up a quickie mirror site, but we will have raw video right after the debate ends. * Other campaign stuff…
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- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:28 pm:
While I wouldnt call it close, I am surprised to see the gap down to 10 points between Quinn and Brady.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:29 pm:
Interestingly, Alexi’s support comes mainly from non-whites and the young, two demographics that traditionally are not the most likely voters in midterm elections. These two groups had better be a target of Alexi’s efforts of he might be in more serious trouble than the top-line numbers show.
- Another Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:36 pm:
Giannoulias’ might benefit from the fact that 64% of Jones’ vote (Green Party) say they might change their mind. Jones has 7% of the vote so that is 4% to 5% that might move to a major party - and they presumably would lean to Giannoulias. http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/0925_IL_topline.pdf
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:41 pm:
===two demographics that traditionally are not the most likely voters in midterm elections===
True with the young, but not true with non-whites. They vote pretty consistently in Illinois. 2008 was an outlier. But if you look at 2004 and 2006 exit polling, it’s the same.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Put this away? I think the idea that Kirk was every capable of “put[ting] this away” should be reevaluated. Now that each candidate has about 1000 points statewide on their main message this fall you see that voters distrust Kirk at materially higher rates than Giannoulias. If there were any doubts about Giannoulias being able to afford to get his message out, those need to be looked at with fresh eyes now that he’s spending significantly.
Maybe there’s people who think he can’t keep up the spending, maybe there’s doubts about voter enthusiasm with D’s vs. R’s, but at their core the voters in this Fox pollster screen of likely voters distrust Kirk way more than Giannoulias. When Kirk’s trust gap (-23) is way worse than Giannoulias’ (-9) how does he put it away? He’s got a real fight on his hands just to prevail.
- fed up - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:45 pm:
surprised whitney isn’t doing better. I thought Quinn’s struggles could push Whitney above 15%. Alexi has been spending big to try and keep this close, he should be doing better.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:48 pm:
The Captain, my personal take on that is that this mob banker thing does not come across as a big negative. The Sopranos and the Godfather have made the idea of the mob a little too mainstream to draw big gasps and fear from usin the word mob next to someones name.
Kirk needs to step up his jobs message and focus on different negatives, like brite start.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:51 pm:
And that is the way it is going to be next month.Kirk by three to five, and Brady by double digits.
How about that Mayor’s race?
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 1:55 pm:
Rich is right. How can a poll not include the candidates for the office. What a waste of time and money. Having said that, 10 points is well within striking distance for Quinn.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:03 pm:
===10 points is well within striking distance for Quinn. ===
Name me one sitting governor who has pulled that one off. One.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:09 pm:
he cant make up 10 points unless he does a 3-4 million dollar buy and peppers the airwaves.
His union support is way too little and to late. His only prayer is to hope that cohen is pulling a larger chunk of brady’s voters from the moderates and indpendents then are reflected in the poll.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:10 pm:
===unless he does a 3-4 million dollar buy===
He and the DGA have spent that much already. Not to mention the primary.
- soccermom - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:17 pm:
I am stunned that all this paid media does not seem to be moving the needle. The buys have been fairly extensive — I guess that means the message is weak. Right?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:18 pm:
===that means the message is weak===
Ever thought that it could be the candidates? Just sayin…
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:19 pm:
Ghost,
Even a does a multi-bazillion dollar ad buy, he cannot overcome his own image and the fact that even in true-blue Illinois, there will be a wave effect, even if not as pronounced as elsewhere.
Quinn is browned over by exposure to heat.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:20 pm:
It’s hard to believe a Dem candidate for governor can’t sniff 40% in late September. But I believe it.
Bill Brady, buy a Powerball ticket. Better yet, go to Vegas until inauguration day. Because you, my friend, are on an all-time lucky streak.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:24 pm:
I really don’t know any sitting Governor’s who came back from a deficit that large and really don’t care. Each situation is unique and if the electorate ever focuses on Brady, he’ll hemorrhage votes. It’s not a matter of if-it is when. Whether it will be enough to overcome Brady’s lead is unclear but I do believe October will be a good month for Quinn.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
===I do believe October will be a good month for Quinn. ===
Based on what? The guy has no offensive media operation. He speaks in endlessly rambling non sequiturs. He has yet to locate a theme. And he hasn’t yet laid a real glove on his opponent even though he’s thrown a ton of stuff at the guy.
- soccermom - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:32 pm:
Quinn has some good stories to tell. He’s just not telling them. He’s got a much stronger, more likable brand than Brady. And the campaign is focusing on tangential issues about Brady — who cares what he drives? Really, I’d vote for a guy who tools around town in a Delorean if he could figure out a way to balance this budget.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:34 pm:
Was there a party affiliation breakdown in the crosstabs? I had to read through it pretty quick, but didn’t see any
- fed up - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
Rich, he has a big surprise in the old briefcase for the campaign. The state budget director is working on the details now. Yes its being done on state time using state resources but lisa Madigan doesn’t mind.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:41 pm:
Based on the Democrats finally coming together around Quinn and women finding out Brady’s position on their issues-to name two reasons and if I had more time, I could come up with a dozen reasons why Brady’s strength is soft.
Your right about the campaign thus far, though.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:42 pm:
==Was there a party affiliation breakdown in the crosstabs? I had to read through it pretty quick, but didn’t see any ==
Nevermind, I saw something of one, although it didn’t give what percentage of Dem, Rep, and Ind were polled. This part makes no sense: They have Alexi winning among “moderates” 47-28…but Kirk winning among independents 47-25 ??? The latter would be more consistent with other polls, so the former seems pretty screwy
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:42 pm:
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:34 pm:
“Was there a party affiliation breakdown in the crosstabs? I had to read through it pretty quick, but didn’t see any”
They used ideology (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative) instead of Republican, Democrat, Independent.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:44 pm:
Party affiliation is in the xtabs.
- Cosmic Charlie - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:50 pm:
I agree with Rich, there is nothing to lead us to believe that Quinn will turn it around. Way too many facts that are getting in the way of Phineas J. Whoopee’s opinions.
For example, historically, undecideds tend to break heavily against the incumbent. That 9% or so of the vote is all but Brady’s unless they don’t vote at all.
Another example, Quinn’s Fav/Unfav is so poor that even if the public starts to catch on to Brady and think he is too extreme they will still dislike Quinn even more.
Another example, regardless of whether this is 1994 all over again, one thing for certain is that this is not a banner year for Dems and if they think Quinn is toast they will stay home in even larger numbers.
Finally, its not just a matter of Quinn making up 10 points on Brady. Its way more complicated than that. Even if Brady holds at 46% he probably will win. Cohen and Whitney will likely suck up 10%+ of the Total Votes Cast. And just like Blago in 2006, we will have a Governor elected without a majority.
- shore - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
hard to imagine kirk does all the political jujitsu to get to this point and the reason he’s not winning going away is because of a self inflicted campaign 101 failure. oof.
the communications make the owie go away plan didnt work out too well.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
Rich is right, as always. Right at the top.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:59 pm:
shore,
Not right at all. Kirk weathered the self-inflicted wounds in July, and hasn’t been behind in the polling since August. Alexi’s advertising plan is not working, and the past two polls show Kirk’s lead increasing (albeit by an insignificant amount within the margin of error).
While you see Kirk’s small lead as a negative against Kirk, I see it as an even bigger negative against Alexi who obviously failed to take the lead while his opponent was on the ropes. Now we will see who has the warchest to close out their campaigns, and who has the message that resonates most clearly with the voters.
This is still a tied race, with the momentum now slightly in Kirk’s favor.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:05 pm:
Two points here. First, if our primary had been held in August or the first week of September, Kirk would not be the GOP nominee. Pat Hughes could have easily ridden the wave. Second, I agree with Rich’s assessment on the strength or veritable lack thereof of the two major party candidates. Kirk SHOULD be a strong candidate - the GOP bench is weak and he is a five-term MOC - but he has flubbed his way into a virtual tie. I still think Kirk would have been and is our best shot, which ain’t saying much. Alexi is only one of many well-known Democrats in a very blue state and yet he was the nominee. David Hoffman must look awfully good right now to a lot of Dems and independents.
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:12 pm:
Hey PJW & soccormom,
Whatever fairy dust you 2 are rolling in, did you bring enough for everybody?
- Conservative Veteran - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
When the pollsters asked the U.S. Senate question, I hope that they mentioned all four candidates, including Mike Labno, of the Libertarian Party. Not enough reporters talk about him, although his name will be on the ballot. More people talk about Jones, but those two should get equal attention.
- Downstater - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
Everytime Quinn gets another union endorsement he loses more voter support. It’s yet another reminder that Quinn is so closely tied with a major problem that plagues state spending and our public employees.
Quinn’s got a strong playbook. Unfortunately, it’s for the 1972 Gubernatorial election.
- ourMagician - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:19 pm:
The fact that 25% of people find Alexi trustworthy proves the point of how people aren’t paying attention to the candidates and how the Chicago media is on full out Rahmbo alert.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:19 pm:
==Really, I’d vote for a guy who tools around town in a Delorean if he could figure out a way to balance this budget. ==
Heck yes, I’d vote for someone who drove a Delorean too. He could get it up to 88 mph, go back in time, and make sure all the dumb decisions the last 10-12 years+ aren’t made.
- CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:37 pm:
10 probably means 6 so Quinn in clearly within reach especially when the NoTaxBill platform
Cut Min. Wage
Freeze Educators Pay
Return to Right to Work
Cancel Projects
Becomes better known
And with NoTaxBill sloushing around Rush Street
it could be really bad for him
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 4:02 pm:
CFS,
With the exception of the minimum wage, I think you would be surprised how well the message you list resonates with the voters. Probably why Quinn is toast!
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 4:22 pm:
CFS,
You just stick with that if it helps you get thru the day.
There are 5 weeks left before the election. Plenty of time to turn in around. All we need is for Brady to tell the universe he is unfit to be the gov. Yeah, that’ll do it.
- Logical Thinker - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 4:35 pm:
Quinn is done. 10 points down at this stage is like being down 3 TD’s with 5 minutes to play.
As for Kirk/AG, the fact that AG hasn’t taken the lead coupled with the significant war-chest Kirk is sitting on does not bode well for AG. I think you’ll see this gap start to widen, especially as Quinn’s fortunes fade.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 4:39 pm:
Logical Thinker,
I agree that Kirk will win, but I do not think the gap between him and Alexi will ever exceed the margin of error. All we will see is that Kirk’s support will solidify, but this race will be a nail biter until the end, and will be one of the last races called, if indeed we do not see a recount.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 4:41 pm:
As a matter of fact, if the race goes into recount mode, how does that affect the possibility of lame duck legislation? Can Kirk be seated before Lisa certifies him as winner? Are we looking at another Burris fiasco?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 5:15 pm:
Cincy, you’re speculating on a Kirk/Alexi recount? Tell me you have broader interests in life.
It’s a beautiful day outside, son. Go to computer sleep mode, ditch those cheesepuffs, put some pants on and get some sunshine. You’ll sleep better.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 5:18 pm:
word,
Will do so after the evening news. Right now, I’m multitasking! Except pants are out of the question…
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 6:56 pm:
Well, given the RASMUSSEN poll only a week before the February 2,’10 primary election which showed Quinn trailing Hynes by 6% (albeit not 10%) and the recent CHICAGO TRIBUNE poll showing only a 5% gap between Quinn and Brady, it’s just not unreasonable to suggest that the Fat Lady has not yet strolled up to the podium to start singin’.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 7:12 pm:
That Trib poll wasn’t so recent, and it’s contradicted so far by everything else out there.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 8:34 pm:
=The fact that 25% of people find Alexi trustworthy proves the point of how people aren’t paying attention to the candidates=
Hmmm….There’s probably alot wrong with that “analysis”. For some reason, “cart before the horse” comes to mind. It’s more like a “persausive” argument without any facts to support it–rather than a root cause analysis conducted to verify/disprove an assumption and then CORRECT it in your favor.
Disbelief is a tough thing to deal with and often does interfere with the ability to control damage and take further corrective action. But hey, the there’s always an upside: the thought process seems identical to that of the campaign and it’s at least consistent.
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 8:35 pm:
Sorry, the 8:34 was mine.
- dredhead - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:03 pm:
You mentioned the goober-natorial candied dates would be debating at the Union League Club tomorrow. Is that all of them, or just a select few judged worthy in the eyes of the Union League Club?
I suspect we’re getting the standard pap delivered from both sides of the coin again, instead of hearing about all our choices.
- state employee - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:35 pm:
Rich Whitney is being blocked by the Union League from a gov debate tomorrow.
I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR BRADY nor Quinn, clearly they are endorsed by the powers that be, and not the people and fairness.